Transforming economies for jobs Transforming economies for jobs and inclusive growth post 2015 and inclusive growth post 2015

Nikhil Chandavarkar, PhDNikhil Chandavarkar, PhD

Chief, Outreach and Communication BranchChief, Outreach and Communication Branch

Division for Sustainable DevelopmentDivision for Sustainable Development

United Nations, New YorkUnited Nations, New York

StocktakingStocktaking

Widespread concern for lack of job oppsWidespread concern for lack of job opps All countries, all ages concernedAll countries, all ages concerned Global Unemployment: up 27 million since Global Unemployment: up 27 million since

2007, total of 189 million (= 1 Brazil)2007, total of 189 million (= 1 Brazil) Figure expected to grow; labour force Figure expected to grow; labour force

grows 40 million/year, by 2030 – 37 grows 40 million/year, by 2030 – 37 million/year, by 2030 - 31 million/yearmillion/year, by 2030 - 31 million/year

2016-2030: 470 million new jobs needed2016-2030: 470 million new jobs needed

Global employmentGlobal employment

Global labour force: 3 billionGlobal labour force: 3 billion One half in wage employmentOne half in wage employment Self employment: 1.35 billion (60% in Self employment: 1.35 billion (60% in

agriculture)agriculture) Global unemployment: 189 millionGlobal unemployment: 189 million Global unemployment rate: 6%Global unemployment rate: 6%

Global unemploymentGlobal unemployment(millions)(millions)

Region Unemployment Labour force

EAP 48 (0.05) 1053

ECA 29 (0.08) 341

LAC 20 (0.08) 243

MENA 17 (0.11) 150

NON-OECD 157 (0.06) 2640

OECD 32 (0.08) 415

WORLD 189 (0.06) 3055

Scenario todayScenario today

Rich world (OECD): Unemployment Rich world (OECD): Unemployment sharp increase, 16% of labour force, sharp increase, 16% of labour force, one half of global increase in Un past one half of global increase in Un past five yearsfive years

Developing World: 56% trapped in Developing World: 56% trapped in informal, vulnerable, meagre pay informal, vulnerable, meagre pay jobs jobs

75 million of 189 million unemployed 75 million of 189 million unemployed are youthare youth

Scenario todayScenario today

90 % of all youth are in developing 90 % of all youth are in developing countries, 1/5 are unemployedcountries, 1/5 are unemployed

Higher unemployment for vulnerable Higher unemployment for vulnerable groups and womengroups and women

Unemployment rates for youth in Unemployment rates for youth in some OECD countries > 50%some OECD countries > 50%

Jobs in P2015: MilestonesJobs in P2015: Milestones Reports: SG’s HL Panel Report, Global Compact Reports: SG’s HL Panel Report, Global Compact

Report, SD Solutions Network Report (7/2013)Report, SD Solutions Network Report (7/2013) Stakeholder inputs: MyWorld Survey (1.4 million Stakeholder inputs: MyWorld Survey (1.4 million

responses), Major Groups Thematic Clusters (2013)responses), Major Groups Thematic Clusters (2013) High Level Political Forum (24/9/2013)High Level Political Forum (24/9/2013) HL Event on Accelerating MDGs (25/9/2013)HL Event on Accelerating MDGs (25/9/2013) Open Working Group on SDGs, Committee on Open Working Group on SDGs, Committee on

Financing SD: report back 9/2014, with SDGsFinancing SD: report back 9/2014, with SDGs Negotiations SDGs begin 9/2014, Negotiations SDGs begin 9/2014, Synthesis P2105 report compiled 12/2014Synthesis P2105 report compiled 12/2014 P2015 intergovermental negotiations begin 1/2015P2015 intergovermental negotiations begin 1/2015 Adoption of P2015 DA at Summit 9/2015Adoption of P2015 DA at Summit 9/2015

What is the Post 2015 What is the Post 2015 Development Agenda (P2015)?Development Agenda (P2015)?

Past Development Agendas (DAs) of UN: Past Development Agendas (DAs) of UN: Development decades, 1995 DA, International Development decades, 1995 DA, International Conference Agendas (Agenda 21)Conference Agendas (Agenda 21)

Top-down or bottom-up agenda setting?Top-down or bottom-up agenda setting? Caveats and reservations about Dev. AgendasCaveats and reservations about Dev. Agendas Bringing the whole world on board, rich and Bringing the whole world on board, rich and

poorpoor Bringing all stakeholders on board, non-Bringing all stakeholders on board, non-

governmental and governmentalgovernmental and governmental

Stocktaking ahead of setting the Post 2015 Stocktaking ahead of setting the Post 2015 Development Agenda:Development Agenda:

Mixed record on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): improved Mixed record on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): improved quality of life of billions, but did not focus enough on reaching the very quality of life of billions, but did not focus enough on reaching the very poorest and most excluded people (as per HL Panel Report on Post2015)poorest and most excluded people (as per HL Panel Report on Post2015)

MDGs did not integrate economic, social and environmental goals; were MDGs did not integrate economic, social and environmental goals; were largely social in focus largely social in focus

MDGs did focus attention and action on key challenges, rallied world MDGs did focus attention and action on key challenges, rallied world behind common approach to developmentbehind common approach to development

Much unfinished work to address extreme poverty and hunger, preventable Much unfinished work to address extreme poverty and hunger, preventable disease and deaths, rising inequalities and environmental crises, disease and deaths, rising inequalities and environmental crises, particularly climate change particularly climate change

Most MDG targets still achievable by 2015: build momentum into 2015 and Most MDG targets still achievable by 2015: build momentum into 2015 and beyondbeyond

Centrepiece of post-2015 development agenda: sustainable development Centrepiece of post-2015 development agenda: sustainable development goals (SDGs) to build on MDGs, address inequalities and new challenges goals (SDGs) to build on MDGs, address inequalities and new challenges facing people and the planet. facing people and the planet.

Progress towards the MDGs as of 2013Progress towards the MDGs as of 2013

Progress made (MDG Report 2013): Poverty more than Progress made (MDG Report 2013): Poverty more than halved (47%-22%); halved (47%-22%); access to safe drinking water rose 76% access to safe drinking water rose 76% to 89% (2.1 billion benefited),to 89% (2.1 billion benefited), 40 million more children 40 million more children attend school, five million more children living, more than attend school, five million more children living, more than 1.1 million people saved from malarial deaths, 8 million 1.1 million people saved from malarial deaths, 8 million people treated for HIV. people treated for HIV.

Unmet targets: mortality under 5 (41%<2/3),maternal Unmet targets: mortality under 5 (41%<2/3),maternal mortality (47%<3/4), CO2 emissions 46% higher than 1990; mortality (47%<3/4), CO2 emissions 46% higher than 1990; deforestation alarming rate; species extinction; ODA deforestation alarming rate; species extinction; ODA decreased (2% - 2011, 4% - 2012)decreased (2% - 2011, 4% - 2012)

New and emerging and urgent challenges: planetary New and emerging and urgent challenges: planetary boundaries exceeded, 60% annual Earth depletion in 1990; boundaries exceeded, 60% annual Earth depletion in 1990; 150% depletion in 2010; widespread deprivation despite 150% depletion in 2010; widespread deprivation despite progress towards MDGs – bottom billion; population progress towards MDGs – bottom billion; population dynamics – possible 8 to 10 billion world by 2050. dynamics – possible 8 to 10 billion world by 2050.

From the MDGs to the SDGsFrom the MDGs to the SDGs

Lifting people out of poverty and protecting the planet’s Lifting people out of poverty and protecting the planet’s resources two sides of the same coin. resources two sides of the same coin.

UN system goal next two years: support Member States UN system goal next two years: support Member States arrive at one single and cohesive development agenda for a arrive at one single and cohesive development agenda for a post-2015 era with sustainable development (SDGs) at its post-2015 era with sustainable development (SDGs) at its core to realize a future with prosperity for all. core to realize a future with prosperity for all.

Background reports so far: SG’s High-level Panel on Post-Background reports so far: SG’s High-level Panel on Post-2015, UN Global Compact, the Sustainable Development 2015, UN Global Compact, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, the UN Development Group ‘Global Solutions Network, the UN Development Group ‘Global Conversation’, Global Sustainable Development Report, Conversation’, Global Sustainable Development Report, World Economic and Social Survey, MDG Report 2013 (1 World Economic and Social Survey, MDG Report 2013 (1 July)July)

Official report: SG’s report on MDG acceleration and post-Official report: SG’s report on MDG acceleration and post-2015 to GA in September2015 to GA in September

From the MDGs to the SDGsFrom the MDGs to the SDGs

Formulating the SDGs: the work of the Formulating the SDGs: the work of the Open Working Group on the SDGsOpen Working Group on the SDGs

Member state driven process mandated by Member state driven process mandated by Rio +20:30 shared seats representing 70 Rio +20:30 shared seats representing 70 member states from five UN groupsmember states from five UN groups

Eight sessions through February 2014 Eight sessions through February 2014 covering three dimensions of SDcovering three dimensions of SD

Report to GA by end of 68Report to GA by end of 68thth session session 6969thth session deliberates, 70 session deliberates, 70thth session session

adopts post-2015 development agendaadopts post-2015 development agenda

From the MDGs to the SDGsFrom the MDGs to the SDGs

Proposals for the SDGs: universal –all Proposals for the SDGs: universal –all countries, all people , including those countries, all people , including those excluded remaining after MDGs excluded remaining after MDGs

Balance economic, social and Balance economic, social and environmental goals and targetsenvironmental goals and targets

Expand MDG agenda: poverty, food, land, Expand MDG agenda: poverty, food, land, jobs, youth, health, population dynamics, jobs, youth, health, population dynamics, water, sanitation, energy, growth, trade, water, sanitation, energy, growth, trade, vulnerable countries, cities, transport, SCP, vulnerable countries, cities, transport, SCP, forests, oceans, biodiversity, finance, forests, oceans, biodiversity, finance, technologytechnology

From the MDGs to the SDGsFrom the MDGs to the SDGs

Possible new time horizon 2015 to Possible new time horizon 2015 to 20302030

Universal goals, targets selectively Universal goals, targets selectively pursued nationally according to Rio pursued nationally according to Rio principlesprinciples

Role of the intergovernmental Role of the intergovernmental process in following progress: high process in following progress: high level political forum (HLPF), GA and level political forum (HLPF), GA and ECOSOCECOSOC

From the MDGs to the SDGsFrom the MDGs to the SDGs

SDGs: provide concrete and simple form to post SDGs: provide concrete and simple form to post 2015 development agenda2015 development agenda

SDGs: concentrate, galvanize actionSDGs: concentrate, galvanize action SDGs: provide for a new commitment period – SDGs: provide for a new commitment period –

coming decadescoming decades SDGs: new global partnerships and voluntary SDGs: new global partnerships and voluntary

commitments (1,382 since Rio+20), innovative commitments (1,382 since Rio+20), innovative financefinance

SDGs: broader people and planet goals than SDGs: broader people and planet goals than MDGs, bolder targets, more national MDGs, bolder targets, more national differentiation (Rio principles)differentiation (Rio principles)

SDGs/P2015: draw on inputs of all stakeholdersSDGs/P2015: draw on inputs of all stakeholders

Input

Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform

Stakeholder Involvement P2015 ProcessStakeholder Involvement P2015 Process

- Open Working Group Sustainable Development Goals Report

- P2015 Report and Negotiations

Major Groups MG (B&I)& Other Stakeholders

MG Thematic Clusters and Steering CommitteesOther Stakeholder consultations

World We WantOutcomes

Stakeholder SDGs e-Inventory

Outcomes

Joint Position PapersOther Stakeholder inputs

Emerging Vision for the Post 2015 Emerging Vision for the Post 2015 Agenda with all inputs so farAgenda with all inputs so far

SG’s Report : A Life of Dignity for All : end poverty and achieve sustainable and SG’s Report : A Life of Dignity for All : end poverty and achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. The key elements of vision for Post-2015 Agenda: inclusive growth. The key elements of vision for Post-2015 Agenda: • i) i) universality: universality: mobilize all developed & developing countries, leave no one mobilize all developed & developing countries, leave no one

behind; behind; • ii) ii) sustainable developmentsustainable development: tackle the interlinked challenges a clear focus on : tackle the interlinked challenges a clear focus on

ending extreme poverty in all its forms;ending extreme poverty in all its forms;• iii) iii) inclusive economic transformations:inclusive economic transformations: ensuring decent jobs, backed by ensuring decent jobs, backed by

sustainable technologies, and to shift to sustainable patterns of consumption sustainable technologies, and to shift to sustainable patterns of consumption and production; and production;

• iv) iv) peace and governancepeace and governance, based on the rule of law and sound institutions, as , based on the rule of law and sound institutions, as key outcomes and enablers of development; key outcomes and enablers of development;

• v) v) a new global partnershipa new global partnership, recognizing shared interests, different needs and , recognizing shared interests, different needs and mutual responsibilities, to ensure commitment to and means of implementing mutual responsibilities, to ensure commitment to and means of implementing this new vision; this new vision;

• vi) vi) being “fit for purpose”,being “fit for purpose”, to ensure the international community is equipped to ensure the international community is equipped with the right with the right institutionsinstitutions and and tools tools to address the challenges of implementing to address the challenges of implementing the sustainable development agenda at the national level. the sustainable development agenda at the national level.

Messages from Interim Report of OWG on Messages from Interim Report of OWG on the SDGs to 68the SDGs to 68thth General Assembly General Assembly

HOLISTIC: make poverty eradication irreversible, include and HOLISTIC: make poverty eradication irreversible, include and interlink economic, social and environmental dimensions of interlink economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. sustainable development.

FEW ASPIRATIONAL GOALS: a few aspirational goals, easy to FEW ASPIRATIONAL GOALS: a few aspirational goals, easy to communicate. Critical global priorities by common agreement communicate. Critical global priorities by common agreement

FOCUS ON KEY DRIVERS OF SD: desirable outcomes and key FOCUS ON KEY DRIVERS OF SD: desirable outcomes and key drivers. cross-cutting nature of many issues drivers. cross-cutting nature of many issues

CAPTURE INTERDEPENDENCE OF GOALS: Capture in the narrative CAPTURE INTERDEPENDENCE OF GOALS: Capture in the narrative complex, cross-cutting, connected factors e.g. human rights, complex, cross-cutting, connected factors e.g. human rights, rights-based approaches, governance, rule of law and wider rights-based approaches, governance, rule of law and wider participation in decision-making. participation in decision-making.

FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY, CAPACITY BUILDING: resources and FINANCE, TECHNOLOGY, CAPACITY BUILDING: resources and concerted actions, provisions for means of implementationconcerted actions, provisions for means of implementation

NEW PARTNERSHIPS: mobilized international efforts and resources NEW PARTNERSHIPS: mobilized international efforts and resources behind specific MDGs. Similar goal-oriented partnerships for SDGs.behind specific MDGs. Similar goal-oriented partnerships for SDGs.

Heads of State and Government: Heads of State and Government: Vision of Post 2015 Development AgendaVision of Post 2015 Development Agenda

Reinforce the international community's commitment to Reinforce the international community's commitment to poverty eradication and sustainable development. poverty eradication and sustainable development.

Stress central imperative of poverty eradication free humanity Stress central imperative of poverty eradication free humanity from poverty and hunger as a matter of urgency. from poverty and hunger as a matter of urgency.

Recognize the intrinsic interlinkage between poverty Recognize the intrinsic interlinkage between poverty eradication and promotion of sustainable developmenta eradication and promotion of sustainable developmenta coherent approach which integrates in a balanced manner the coherent approach which integrates in a balanced manner the three dimensions of sustainable development. three dimensions of sustainable development.

Provide a single framework and set of Goals -universal in Provide a single framework and set of Goals -universal in nature and applicable to all countries, while taking account of nature and applicable to all countries, while taking account of differing national circumstances and respecting national differing national circumstances and respecting national policies and prioritiespolicies and priorities

Promote peace and security, democratic governance, thePromote peace and security, democratic governance, therule of law, gender equality and human rights for all.rule of law, gender equality and human rights for all.

[From PGA Special Event 25 September at GA: Outcome [From PGA Special Event 25 September at GA: Outcome Document:Document:

http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/Outcome%20documentMDG.pdf ] ]

HLP Proposal for P2015 GoalsHLP Proposal for P2015 Goals

HLP Proposal for P2015 Goals: 12 HLP Proposal for P2015 Goals: 12 Goals, 50 targetsGoals, 50 targets

HLP Proposal for P2015 GoalsHLP Proposal for P2015 Goals

Employment and decent work in the SDGsEmployment and decent work in the SDGs

OWG IV in June covered employment and decent work for all, OWG IV in June covered employment and decent work for all, most direct route out of poverty, based on robust, inclusive most direct route out of poverty, based on robust, inclusive job-creating growth job-creating growth

Enterprises and entrepreneurs are principal job creatorsEnterprises and entrepreneurs are principal job creators Unemployment, especially of youth serious,Unemployment, especially of youth serious, A goal or targets related to jobs would need address working A goal or targets related to jobs would need address working

poor and unemployedpoor and unemployed Social protection is cross cutting – extend even to low-incomeSocial protection is cross cutting – extend even to low-income Emphasize human rights, especially to educationEmphasize human rights, especially to education Complete unfinished work of the MDGs to ensure universal Complete unfinished work of the MDGs to ensure universal

primary school enrollment, learning outcomes, relevance to primary school enrollment, learning outcomes, relevance to job needs, lifelong learning, adult literacy, and non formal job needs, lifelong learning, adult literacy, and non formal educationeducation

Culture is a source of resilience, strength and adaptability of Culture is a source of resilience, strength and adaptability of societiessocieties

Reflect youth concerns across goals, expecially re: education, Reflect youth concerns across goals, expecially re: education, health and employmenthealth and employment

A employment and decent work goal: A employment and decent work goal: iIlustrative proposal - HLP Goal 8iIlustrative proposal - HLP Goal 8

8. CREATE JOBS, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS, AND 8. CREATE JOBS, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS, AND EQUITABLE GROWTHEQUITABLE GROWTH

a) Increase the number of good and decent jobs and a) Increase the number of good and decent jobs and livelihoods by xlivelihoods by x

b) Decrease the number of young people not in education, b) Decrease the number of young people not in education, employment or training by x%employment or training by x%

c) Strengthen productive capacity by providing universal c) Strengthen productive capacity by providing universal access to financial services and infrastructure such as access to financial services and infrastructure such as transportation and ICTtransportation and ICT

d) Increase new start-ups by x and value added from new d) Increase new start-ups by x and value added from new products by y through creating an enabling business products by y through creating an enabling business environment and boosting entrepreneurship to give specific environment and boosting entrepreneurship to give specific emphasis to the latter than raising GDP. emphasis to the latter than raising GDP.

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