transforming defence · 2020. 1. 16. · page 2 uk defence –the challenge of modernisation...

Transforming DefenceHugh Durrant-Whyte FRS

Chief Scientific Advisor, Ministry of Defence

UK Defence – The Challenge of Modernisation

▪ Evolving threats: From state-based threats to individual terrorist acts, the challenges to our peace and prosperity are increasingly complex, ambiguous, destabilising and potentially catastrophic.

▪ Rapid technology change: Technology, especially digital technology, is developing at a breath-taking pace making pervasive many capabilities once only imagined in science fiction.

Modernisation of culture and skills as well as tools and technologies

Two Modernising Imperatives

Four Pillars of Defence Modernisation

1. Foundations

2. Technology

3. Skills

4. Operations

Modernisation pillars shape and transform,

rather than replace, current war-fighting capabilities

Modernisation 1: Foundations

▪ Build a renewed (digital) foundation on which the broad spectrum of future threats can be understood, deterred and defeated.

▪ Adopt and deploy a common architectures for all components, systems and command structures:

– Top level – a coherent cross-government command and control (C2) facility enabling integration of intelligence and situational awareness, and delivery of full spectrum effect as a contribution to the Fusion Doctrine.

– Operational level – Multi-domain C2 bringing together pan-defenceintelligence, effects and command structures in both permanent and deployed headquarters.

– Tactical level – Adopt modern open architecture principles across the equipment programme to enhance interoperability and ensure agility to technical change.

Sidebar – Open Architectures

▪ Past year - Defence has actively committed to open architectures, primarily to get after agile ever-green software development, access to best in class algorithms, and through-life cost savings.

▪ Open architecture is now an untradeable KUR on all Cat A acquisitions – Type 31a, MIV, Radar 2, NSIT (D), and others:

– “Open” is through functional test (cf. Morpheus). It is not a set of standards. Openness is both technical and commercial.

– “Open” implies specification of modules with corresponding “APIs”, potentially contracted for separately.

– A growing MoD community of practice in open systems specification, contracting and commercial development

Building a significant and important culture change in Defence

Modernisation 2: Technology

▪ Modern Deterrence: How information, mass and effect can be projected to influence, deter and de-escalate aggression and harm.

▪ Increased investment in (see also S&T):

– Information Advantage: improved resilient and secure communications, increased sensing and situational awareness, intelligent processing and understanding of information, and defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.

– Modernised mass and effect: including complex weapons, advanced protection and defensive aids, robotics and autonomous systems.

– Enhance existing capabilities: Focus on modern digital and intelligent systems applied to build advantage, in areas including ISR, ASW, A2AD and force readiness.

Sidebar - Project NELSON – Data and AI at Sea

Modernisation 3: Skills

▪ Defence culture will need to embrace digital and information skills

▪ Modernisation will put a premium on training in information skills:

– Command skills in areas such as information manoeuvre

– Synthetic environments to build and exercise skills from decision making (wargames) to simulated training.

▪ Culturally shifts:

– Embrace connectedness and sharing of information not just across systems and commands, but also across government.

– Recognise that technology, especially automation and AI, will drive reductions in the number of people and platforms required to deliver defence outcomes – and prepare for this.

Sidebar - Data-Driven Combat Training

BATUK

ASKARI STORM

01-08 NOV 19

BG LEVEL

EXERCISE OVERVIEW

Filters

Day

NightDeliberate Attack

Tactical actionTime Met ConditionsVisibility (over 3000m)Relative Humidity (over 80%)Temperature (over 40C)

ü

ü

ü

ü

Blue Force Red ForceHit Ratio

Force Ratio

3:1 6:1

Baseline Exercise

Casualties

Fratricide

Rounds resulting in hits by ammo type

Ammo type

Direct

Indirect

Date

Time

02 Nov 05 NOV 07 NOV

1500 0200 0600 0300 1500

1

5

61

1

5 27

Baseline Exercise

Total

Nu

mb

er

of F

ratr

icid

e

Nu

mb

er

of F

ratr

icid

e

02 NOV 03 NOV 05 NOV 07 NOVDate

Direct

Indirect

1300 1500 0500 0700 0200Time 03001 2 1 1 1

10 7

Baseline Exercise

Total

Observer Mentor Review

Collateral

Damage

15 10

Baseline Exercise

Total 30 35

Baseline Exercise

Total

Direct

Indirect

50403020100 10090807060

62%

32%

DirectIndirect

Typ

e o

f w

ea

po

n e

ffe

ct

% successful hits

Exercise

average

Average range of hits

DirectIndirect

Direct

Indirect

50403020100 10090807060

43%

47%

DirectIndirect

Typ

e o

f w

ea

po

n e

ffe

ct

% successful hits

Exercise

average

Average range of hits

35 55

Baseline Exercise

75 42

10 16

Blue casualties

(% of force)

% treated in

Golden Hour

% blue vehicles

damaged

Furth

er d

etai

l in

inte

ract

ive

view

60mm HE,

Ground Burst

MG

Further detail in

interactive view

0

25

50

75

100

50403020100 10090807060

Baseline

Exercise

Freq

uenc

y of

pre

viou

s ex

erci

ses

% casualties on exercises

Frequency of casualties across all exercises

OM Prompts

1

· Field craft skills

- Marksmanship

· TTPs:

- SoM

- Weapon placement

- Understanding of

enemy capability in

planning

- Ability to match weapon

systems to targets


- Use of cover & concealment

· TTPs:

- Use of fire & manoeuvre

· Risk appetite

- Planners

- Those executing the plan

· Accuracy of J2 assessment by

planners


- Low level skills and drills

· Understanding of the plan

· Effectiveness of control measures

· Command and control comments


- Low level skills and drills

· Effectiveness of control measures

· Command and control comments

12 1

1

Modernisation 4: Operations

▪ Modernisation aspects of both external and internal operations.

▪ External - our adversaries no longer adhere to a rules-based order and where technology has become a ubiquitous disruptor:

– Cross-command and cross-government coherence,

– Permissions and legality of modern, often digital, effects,

– Increased agility, flexibility and responsiveness to address the spectrum of modern threats.

▪ Internally - embrace rampant and pervasive technology:

– More innovative, flexible and agile approach to equipment procurement and sustainment

– Adoption of modern automation technologies in the way we deliver efficient outcomes across the business of Defence.

Sidebar – Wargaming the Threat

▪ Recent Strategic Wargames:

– Modern Deterrence, Escalation Wargame

▪ Key Insights:

– Information and understanding

– Force readiness and resilience

– Grey-zone conflict and permissions

▪ Tactical wargames:

– Eagle, Agile, Information, Unmanned Warrior – and others

– Playing in technology cards

▪ Experimentation

– Joint venture, strike brigade

Transforming Defence:

The Role of S&T

S&T Strategy: In the Mainstream

OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE

Rest of

Government

Intelligence

Agencies

Industry

Primes

.Allies &

Partners

Adversaries

Academia &

Non-Profit

Small & Medium

Enterprises

Systems Enablers

Operational NeedsFuture Concepts

Affordability

Technology OptionsRequirements

IntegrationRelease To Service

Sustainment

S&T

Innovate

Defence and Security

Capabilities

S&T Big Bets –Building Blocks for Transformation

Information

Effects

Skills

1. Autonomous Systems – robotics, machine learning, AI

2. Cyber Deterrence – defensive and offensive systems, tactical EWS

3. ISR and Data Fusion – distributed resilient sensing, data fusion

4. Next Generation Command & Control (C2) – open architectures, PED

5. Affordable space – resilient communications and intelligence

6. Novel Weapons – modular systems, low-cost mass, directed energy

7. Protection – defensive aids, missile defence, armour

8. Synthetic War Environments – war gaming, decision support

9. People – human augmentation, skills and training

Higher TRL, More Experimentation

Spearheads – Modernising Capability

▪ Bring together technology to change capability:

– Spiral outcomes in the short, medium and longer terms

– Higher levels of “in field” experimentation

– High levels of external industry engagement

▪ Drive necessary changes in culture:

– Acquisition and operationalisation of open technology

– Wargame operational concepts

– Integrate in to training and doctrine

Spearheads: Capability and Affordability

▪ Anti submarine warfare (ASW)

▪ Land: CEMA C2 and autonomy

▪ ISR: Data fusion and decision

▪ A2AD: complex and novel weapons

▪ Future Logistics

Longer term: > 10 years

Exploit high-TRL solutions to realise short-term

savings

Bring forward affordable alternatives to current

capability

Develop new affordable ways of delivering future

capability

Near Term: 1-3 years

Medium Term: 3- 10 years

Innovation – Technology and Process

AutonomousSystems

CyberDeterrence

ISRandDataFusion

NextGenC2

AffordableSpace

NovelWeapons

Protection

SyntheticWar

HumanSkills

S&TBigBetsInform

ation

Effect

People

AntiSubmarineWarfare(ASW)

LandCEMA,C2andAutonomy

FutureLogistics

ISRDataFusionandDecisions

ComplexWeaponsandEffects

SpearheadProjects

Near-termExternalDisruptive

AI,MachineLearningPeopleandSkills

Synthetics

FutureWorkforce

NuclearDeterrence

DefenceAgility

Information&Decisions

NovelEffects

StrategicAdvantage

PowerProjection

DefenceChallenges

DASA InvestmentFundSMEsFLInnovationUnits

DE&S ISS

FLCs FMC

DIU

S&T

TechnologyInsertion FastProcurement

Innovation – Defence and Security Accelerator

Key Messages

▪ This is a challenging time: Threats and technology

▪ Future Capabilities:

– Focussed on information, effects and ”modern deterrence”

– Deliver key cultural and skills shifts

– Address affordability

▪ S&T – transforming defence

– Big Bets – information, effects and skills

– Spearheads – addressing holistic capability change

– Innovation – new ways of doing business

transforming defence · 2020. 1. 16. · page 2 uk defence –the challenge of modernisation...

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