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Transformer Report Chapter Summaries
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Chapter 1 - THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET
Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2018 is summarised with cagr in real and nominal
values, in MVA capacity, and in real and nominal price per unit, for 2018 and forecast to 2025. For all
transformers, GSU transformers, power transformers, distribution transformers.
Chapter 2 - THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S TRANSFORMER FLEEET, COMPARISON OF SEVEN
STATPLAN SURVEYS, EDITIONS 1 - 7
A comparison of data of the growth of the transformer stock as measured in the last seven StatPlan
Transformer Surveys- analysis EHV HV GSU/utility PTs/industry DTs/MV GSU/utility DTs/industry DTs.
Chapter 3 - TRANSFORMER MARKET, GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL
The classifications of transformers - GSU, LPT, MPT power, SPT power, pad mounted DT, pole top DT,
industrial.
Chapter 4 – NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
Analysis of demand and transformer stock by category; GSU, power transformers and distribution
transformers. Detailed shipment data for distribution transformers in the US is only available for the years
2009 by transformer type. Market drivers and utility investment are outlined. The manufacturing industry
is analysed in detail by transformer category; LPT, power, medium power transformers, liquid and dry type
MV transformers, LV dry type. Purchase influences and delivery channels are analysed. Efficiency are
outlined.
Chapter 5 - EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The European market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for
generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.
Regional overview of the European utility system is provided, with details of utilizes and network structure,
including voltage analysis. Efficiency measures are outlined. The changing network landscape of
Distributed Power and Smart Transformers are outlined. Over the last five years, the EU power sector has
been hit by a “perfect storm” of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors that have led to overcapacity
and low prices. MPS and market drivers are analysed. As a result, the region’s large publicly traded utilities
have, on average, lost half of their market capitalisation since 2008, destroying around EUR 500 billion of
shareholder value. Tis is outlined and analysed in detail focusing on the major utilizes affected. The
chapter contains detailed marketing sections for the major countries in Europe; France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, United Kingdom and Turkey, analysis of manufacturing facilities, especially the global leaders - ABB,
Siemens, Alstom, Schneider, Legrand.
Chapter 6 - CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET
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The CIS market for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator
transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The
chapter contains a separate report on the major CIS country, Russia.
Chapter 7 - MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The Middle Eastern and African markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory
cost, for generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every
country. Individual sections on Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
Chapter 8 - ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The Asia Pacific markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for
generator transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country.
Separate detailed sections are included for China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand. An
interesting analysis is provided of investment as a % of GDP, which shows clearly the dominance of the
Asian countries and MENA with implications for markets.
Chapter 9 - LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The LAC markets for power and distribution transformers in estimated at ex-factory cost, for generator
transformers, transmission power transformers and distribution transformers for every country. The two
largest market, Brazil and Mexico are analysed individually.
Chapter 10 – THE VALUE CHAIN – FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX
The cost of any product such as transformers or switchgear can be measured in a number of ways, from
being a piece of unworked metal, to its final installation in working order and finally as a constituent of
capital expenditure. Different price levels are important in this supply chain. These are defined and
analysed with % ratios for each step in the sequence. The value chain differs for different routes to market
and is a fundamental issue for channel strategy.
Chapter 11 – THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE
Customer list - utility landscape with transmission and distribution companies listed for 204 countries with
hundreds of utilities named.
Chapter 12 – TRANSFORMERS SALES AT RETAIL PRICE AND INSTALLED COST
Demand by region is summarised at retail price and installed coast.
Chapter 13 - UTILITY, GSU & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED
CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT
A detail set of tables of Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity
(MVA), numbers of units and kVA/unit for distribution transformers, by country and ownership, for 2017.
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Chapter 14 - NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT
In the T&D industry, GSU, power network and distribution network transformers are one of the major
components of equipment, in addition to switchgear, cables and other items of equipment. Transformers
are needed at all stages in an electrical supply system when the voltage level changes, either up or down
and the transport of power goes through several stages between generation and final delivery to the
consumer. These stages vary according to the design of the system. The chapter outlines the various
stages of the power networks in detail and identifies where the different types of transformers are
positioned, flagging regional differences in practice, with regional summaries.
Chapter 15 - THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries, from
22 GVA in 1900 to 45,188 GVA in 2016. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until 2050.
At face value the steady rise in installed capacity suggests that annual demand for power and distribution
transformers will rise steadily every year on a linear path, but this is not the case. It was such an assumption
as this which led to unsustainable surpluses of production capacity in the electro-technical industry in the
1990s and the demise of many hitherto respected and successful companies. Over 200 transformer
factories were closed between 1970 and 2000. Figures plot installed transformer capacity and annual
demand based on replacement cycles of 40 years for power transformers and 30 years for distribution
transformers. The long-term demand cycle of new and renewal does not equate to short term
expenditure. At present, if replacement had been carried out as needed demand would be going down.
However, replacement has been delayed for years, especially in the transmission sector and short-term
market is increasing. The long- term demand cycle is a tool for long-term planning, while the short-term
expenditure projections are for immediate sales and marketing purposes.
Chapter 16 - TRANSFORMER:GENERATOR RATIOS - MVA:MW
The ratio of transformer capacity to generating capacity is a useful statistic because generating capacity is
comprehensively recorded whereas transformer capacity is less well documented. This enables us not only
to confirm snapshots of transformation capacity at any point in time but also to plot long term trends and
demand cycles for transformers based on the historical data for generating capacity. Power transformers
have along service lives, often 40 years or more, with some still in service aged 60-80 years and even a few
100 years old. It is therefore essential to plot long term installed capacity. There are variations between
countries, which are the result of different network designs and voltage classes. The ratios are given for
every country at four stages; GSU, power network, distribution network and total generator transformer
capacity.
Chapter 17 - SMART TRANSFORMERS
Challenges such as the aging power grid, increasing energy demands, spiraling cost of generating electricity
and its cost on the environment all point toward the need for a grid that can produce and distribute energy
more efficiently and reliably. The smart grid is being developed to deal with these problems. Transformers
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serve as a hub for collection and distribution of energy and are a key component of a successful transition
to a smart grid. The smart grid concept ties together all aspects of the power system, from the plug in the
wall at a house or office to a factory, to the distribution system, to power plants of all kinds. For the smart
grid to work efficiently, there will be a need for smart transformers. As part of the distribution network,
there are millions of transformers in the world; unfortunately, very few have any intelligence or
communication capabilities that meet advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) standards or are parts of
an advanced sensor infrastructure (ASI) network.
Chapter 18 - N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT
Redundancy is a crucial consideration in infrastructure design and has major implications for market size
calculations. The following factors are reviewed; the impact of network failure, transformer failure,
industrial reliability, network reliability, N-1 and the networks, contingency planning for network failure
and electricity distribution.
Chapter 19 - PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES
In recent years, the prices of electrotechnical products have been volatile due to variations in many factors
which affect them. Price trends are reviewed with commentary on PPI - Producer Price Index, industry
trends, production capacity, and the manufacturing input cost composition. A review of electrical steel
production and capacity is included.
Chapter 20 - CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
The Grid Edge is already impacting on the transformer mix and two aspects will impact on the transformer
stock; increases in distributed power and in renewables. The non-hydro renewable capacity consists
mainly of wind power and solar PV, which have grown rapidly in the last two decades. They will affect
transformers because the power generated enters the grid at different points and at different voltages.
Chapter 21 - MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
Losses in transmission and distribution networks constitute the single biggest loss in any electricity system.
Approximately 70% of the losses in electricity networks occur in the distribution network with conductor
accounting for 42% of these losses and transformers about 30%. Transformers operate 24 hours/day, 365
days per year and have very long lifetimes, typically 40-50 years for power transformers and around 30
years for distribution transformers. Energy consumption during its service life is the dominant factor in
their life-cycle assessment environmental impact. The increased use of electronic equipment can lead to
increased harmonic currents and higher losses in transformers. Transformers are already efficient pieces
of equipment, with efficiency in the range of 95 to 99 The issue is discussed and details of mandatory
efficiency standards around the world supplied. MEPS Aer outlined for each major country.
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Chapter 22 - HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers. Amorphous core transformers
(AMTs) significantly reduce no-load losses by using an amorphous alloy for the iron core, on which the
transformer windings that carry the electricity are coiled. The technology and market penetration is
outlined by region and major country.
Chapter 23 - TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY
Manufacturers of larger power transformers are easier to identify and their production capacity is either
published or can be estimated. Most countries have numbers of small local producers of distribution
transformers which are sold to local distribution utilities and are poorly documented. Some large countries
have a lot of these companies, notably China, India, Europe and the United States. China, Europe and the
United States have large numbers of distribution utilities, India fewer. The chapter surveys the global
situation with detailed reports for the major countries.
Chapter 24 - GLOBAL MARKET SHARE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS, VALUE, 2017
Global market shares for the major transformer manufacturers.
Chapter 25 - LOGISTICS
Power transformers, especially GSU and quad boosters, are among the largest and heaviest pieces of
equipment that must be transported, sometimes over long distances. Because of their size and the small
numbers in service there are only a few manufacturers of the largest units in the world, thereby
necessitating long and complex logistics. This is increasingly mentioned by vendors as a major cost and a
consideration in locating manufacturing sites. It is not our purpose to provide a detailed survey of logistics
in this report but to give a flavour of what is an increasingly important issue of the complexities of delivery
of large, heavy equipment. The chapter contains some graphic illustrations of logistical problems and
mishaps, which demonstrate the difficulties that planners face more effectively than any descriptions.
Chapter 26- ELECTRIFICATION
The impact of increased electrification on future markets is described with its advantages in terms of
electrical goods and aspirations, which vary according to the sophistication of the electrical market in a
country. Factors driving the increase in numbers of electrical connections are assessed with tables of
electrification levels for every country, from 1950 to 2050.
METHODOLOGY
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................... 19
1.THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER MARKET ........................................................................................ 37
2.THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD’S TRANSFORMER FLEEET SEVEN STATPLAN SURVEYS ............................................... 39
3.TRANSFORMER TYPES - GSU, POWER AND DISTRIBUTION, INDUSTRIAL TRANSFORMERS ....................................... 41
Power transformers ............................................................................................................................................... 41
Large Power Transformers (LPT) ............................................................................................................................ 41
Classification according to application ................................................................................................................... 43
Generator step-up transformers (GSU).................................................................................................................. 43
System intertie (interconnecting) transformers. ................................................................................................... 44
Distribution Transformers ...................................................................................................................................... 44
Pad mounted distribution transformers ................................................................................................................ 45
Industrial transformers .......................................................................................................................................... 46
4.NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET.............................................................................................................. 47
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 48
Composition of demand ......................................................................................................................................... 49
The utility market in the United States .................................................................................................................. 50
Transformer market drivers ................................................................................................................................... 51
Utility investment ................................................................................................................................................... 52
Manufacturing industry review - facilities ............................................................................................................. 53
Power transformers ............................................................................................................................................... 53
USA plant ................................................................................................................................................................ 54
NAFTA suppliers in Canada and Mexico ................................................................................................................. 54
Large power transformers (LPT) ............................................................................................................................. 54
Medium power transformers ................................................................................................................................. 57
Distribution transformers ....................................................................................................................................... 57
MV distribution transformer .................................................................................................................................. 57
Liquid-immersed .................................................................................................................................................... 57
Dry type .................................................................................................................................................................. 57
LV distribution transformers .................................................................................................................................. 58
Dry type .................................................................................................................................................................. 58
Amorphous core transformer manufacturers........................................................................................................ 58
Canadian manufacturers ........................................................................................................................................ 58
Purchase considerations and delivery channels .................................................................................................... 59
National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA) ......................................................................................... 59
CEE- Consortium for Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................................... 60
MEPS standards ...................................................................................................................................................... 60
Canadian standards ................................................................................................................................................ 60
5.EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS ........................................................................................................................ 61
Regional overview of the European utility system................................................................................................. 64
Transformer voltages in the utility network and industry ..................................................................................... 64
Voltage differences in the European distribution networks .................................................................................. 65
High efficiency transformers .................................................................................................................................. 67
A changing network landscape - distributed power - smart transformers ............................................................ 67
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European utility crisis ..............................................................................................................................................68
Transformer market Drivers ...................................................................................................................................69
MEPS Standards ......................................................................................................................................................70
European transformer manufacturing industry review ..........................................................................................70
FRANCE ...................................................................................................................................................................73
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................73
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................73
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................73
Market leaders – Alstom, Schneider, development in France ................................................................................73
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................75
GERMANY ................................................................................................................................................................76
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................76
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................76
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................76
Market leader - Siemens .........................................................................................................................................76
SGB- SMIT ................................................................................................................................................................77
German utility crisis ................................................................................................................................................77
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................78
ITALY ........................................................................................................................................................................79
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................79
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................79
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................79
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................79
SPAIN .......................................................................................................................................................................80
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................80
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................80
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................80
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................80
SWITZERLAND .........................................................................................................................................................81
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................81
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................81
ABB ..........................................................................................................................................................................81
UNITED KINGDOM ..................................................................................................................................................83
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................83
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................83
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................83
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................84
TURKEY ....................................................................................................................................................................85
Annual demand power and distribution transformers ...........................................................................................85
Transformer stock ...................................................................................................................................................85
Market drivers .........................................................................................................................................................85
Transformer manufacturers....................................................................................................................................85
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6.CIS TRANSFORMER MARKET ....................................................................................................................................... 87
RUSSIA .................................................................................................................................................................... 88
Annual demand power and distribution transformers .......................................................................................... 88
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 88
The Russian power system ..................................................................................................................................... 88
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 89
Russian transformer manufacturers ...................................................................................................................... 89
Ukrainian transformer manufacturer .................................................................................................................... 90
7.MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA TRANSFORMER MARKETS ............................................................................................... 91
IRAN ....................................................................................................................................................................... 94
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 94
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 94
SAUDI ARABIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 96
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 96
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 97
UAE ......................................................................................................................................................................... 98
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 98
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 98
8.ASIA PACIFIC TRANSFORMER MARKETS ..................................................................................................................... 100
Investment as a % of GDP ...................................................................................................................................... 104
CHINA ..................................................................................................................................................................... 106
Annual demand power and distribution transformers .......................................................................................... 106
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 106
UHV AC and HVDC transformer markets in China ................................................................................................. 106
Chinese suppliers and foreign suppliers ................................................................................................................ 108
UHV market participants ........................................................................................................................................ 109
International firms in China’s UHV Market ............................................................................................................ 110
Power and distribution transformers ≥ 220 kV ≤ UHV........................................................................................... 110
Power and distribution transformers ≤ 220 kV ...................................................................................................... 111
Distribution transformers for MV and LV distribution ........................................................................................... 111
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 112
MEPS Standards ..................................................................................................................................................... 113
The structure of the Chinese power sector ........................................................................................................... 113
Manufacturing industry review.............................................................................................................................. 115
JAPAN ..................................................................................................................................................................... 118
Annual demand power and distribution transformers .......................................................................................... 118
Transformer stock .................................................................................................................................................. 118
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 118
MEPS Standards ..................................................................................................................................................... 118
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 119
Overseas production .............................................................................................................................................. 120
INDIA ...................................................................................................................................................................... 122
Annual demand power and distribution transformers .......................................................................................... 122
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Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 122
Electrification .......................................................................................................................................................... 122
Captive generation .................................................................................................................................................. 123
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 123
MEPS Standards ...................................................................................................................................................... 124
Manufacturing industry review .............................................................................................................................. 124
Capacity and utilisation ........................................................................................................................................... 124
INDONESIA .............................................................................................................................................................. 128
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 128
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 128
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 128
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 128
KOREA ..................................................................................................................................................................... 130
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 130
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 130
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 130
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 131
TAIWAN ................................................................................................................................................................... 132
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 132
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 132
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 132
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 132
THAILAND................................................................................................................................................................ 134
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 134
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 134
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 134
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 135
9.LAC TRANSFORMER MARKETS ..................................................................................................................................... 136
BRAZIL ..................................................................................................................................................................... 139
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 139
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 139
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 139
Manufacturing industry review .............................................................................................................................. 140
MEXICO ................................................................................................................................................................... 141
Annual demand power and distribution transformers........................................................................................... 141
Transformer stock ................................................................................................................................................... 141
Market drivers ........................................................................................................................................................ 142
MEPS Standards ...................................................................................................................................................... 142
Transformer manufacturers ................................................................................................................................... 142
10.THE VALUE CHAIN - FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX .................................................................................................... 143
The value chain at 6 levels ...................................................................................................................................... 143
Sales channels ......................................................................................................................................................... 145
Utilities .................................................................................................................................................................... 145
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Manufacturers’ direct sales .................................................................................................................................... 145
Distributor sales ...................................................................................................................................................... 145
Industry ................................................................................................................................................................... 145
Raw material inputs ................................................................................................................................................ 146
11. THE UTILITY LANDSCAPE........................................................................................................................................... 147
12. TRANSFORMER SALES AT RETAIL PRICE AND INSTALLED COST ............................................................................... 152
13. GSU, UTILITY & INDUSTRIAL POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER INSTALLED CAPACITY, NUMBERS AND AVER-
AGE DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER KVA PER UNIT ........................................................................................................ 153
14. NETWORK TRANSFORMER LAYOUT ......................................................................................................................... 165
THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS .......................................................................................................................... 165
Stage 1 .................................................................................................................................................................... 165
Stage 2 .................................................................................................................................................................... 165
Stage 3 .................................................................................................................................................................... 165
Stage 4 .................................................................................................................................................................... 165
Network configurations for distribution - Radial, Loop and Network systems ...................................................... 167
Industry ................................................................................................................................................................... 168
Review of regional utility network practices - The link from medium voltage to low voltage .............................. 169
North America ........................................................................................................................................................ 169
Japan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 170
Europe .................................................................................................................................................................... 170
Types of transformer .............................................................................................................................................. 171
Liquid dielectric transformers ................................................................................................................................ 172
Dry-type transformers ............................................................................................................................................ 173
Gas filled transformers ........................................................................................................................................... 173
Evolution of power transformers by size and capacity .......................................................................................... 173
Ownership of power and distribution transformers .............................................................................................. 174
Ownership of GSU transformers ............................................................................................................................ 175
15. THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050 .......................................................................................................... 176
INSTALLED CAPACITY VERSUS DEMAND ................................................................................................................ 176
The China Factor ..................................................................................................................................................... 179
16. TRANSFORMER:GENERATOR RATIOS - MVA:MW .................................................................................................... 182
17. SMART TRANSFORMERS ........................................................................................................................................... 190
Smart transformers and the smart grid .................................................................................................................. 190
Basic characteristics of smart transformers ........................................................................................................... 192
The basic technical requirements of smart transformers ...................................................................................... 192
Intelligent transformer substations ........................................................................................................................ 192
Smart transformer in current infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 193
Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) .................................................................................................................................. 193
18. N-1 STANDARD, N-2 AND 2N, REDUNDANCY AND REPLACEMENT .......................................................................... 194
Network failure ....................................................................................................................................................... 194
Transformer failure ................................................................................................................................................. 194
Industrial reliability ................................................................................................................................................. 194
Levels of redundancy .............................................................................................................................................. 195
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Network reliability .................................................................................................................................................. 196
N-1 and the networks ............................................................................................................................................. 196
Reliability standards SAIFI and SAIDI ...................................................................................................................... 197
Electricity transmission .......................................................................................................................................... 198
Large power transformers (LPTs) ........................................................................................................................... 198
Transformer/generator ratios and redundancy ..................................................................................................... 199
Generation.............................................................................................................................................................. 199
Transmission ........................................................................................................................................................... 199
Distribution ............................................................................................................................................................. 199
19. PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER PRICES .............................................................................. 201
PPI - Producer Price Index ...................................................................................................................................... 201
USA ......................................................................................................................................................................... 201
EU ........................................................................................................................................................................... 202
China ....................................................................................................................................................................... 202
Japan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 203
Factors impacting on manufacturing cost and selling price of transformers ........................................................ 203
Manufacturing cost ................................................................................................................................................ 203
Selling price ............................................................................................................................................................ 203
Cost of materials .................................................................................................................................................... 204
The core - electrical steel ....................................................................................................................................... 204
Amorphous steel .................................................................................................................................................... 205
The coil - windings - copper and aluminium .......................................................................................................... 206
Advantages of copper windings ............................................................................................................................. 206
Disadvantages of copper windings ......................................................................................................................... 206
Advantages of aluminium windings ....................................................................................................................... 206
Disadvantages of aluminium windings ................................................................................................................... 206
Transformer oil ....................................................................................................................................................... 207
Fluctuations in commodity prices .......................................................................................................................... 207
Demand for transformers, market and industry trends ........................................................................................ 209
Production capacity and utilisation ........................................................................................................................ 209
20. CENTRAL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION .............................................................................................................. 210
Trends in the generation mix ................................................................................................................................. 210
The impact of generation developments on transformation technology .............................................................. 210
Decentralised power .............................................................................................................................................. 213
Czech Republic........................................................................................................................................................ 214
Germany ................................................................................................................................................................. 215
Italy ......................................................................................................................................................................... 217
Spain ....................................................................................................................................................................... 218
21. MEPS - MINIMUM ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARDS ....................................................................................... 220
MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) ................................................................................................ 221
United States .......................................................................................................................................................... 222
Efficiency regulations ............................................................................................................................................. 223
Canada .................................................................................................................................................................... 223
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Brazil ....................................................................................................................................................................... 224
Mexico .................................................................................................................................................................... 225
European Union ...................................................................................................................................................... 225
The European Norms EN50588-1:2014 and EU No 548/2014 apply. ..................................................................... 227
Australia and New Zealand ..................................................................................................................................... 227
Israel ....................................................................................................................................................................... 227
Vietnam................................................................................................................................................................... 228
Japan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 228
China ....................................................................................................................................................................... 229
Korea ....................................................................................................................................................................... 230
India ........................................................................................................................................................................ 230
Summary of efficiency standards ........................................................................................................................... 231
22. HIGH EFFICIENCY TRANSFORMERS ........................................................................................................................... 234
Development of a new technology - amorphous core transformers ..................................................................... 234
The market for AMTs .............................................................................................................................................. 235
AMT manufacturers ................................................................................................................................................ 235
Amorphous metal ribbon manufacturers ............................................................................................................... 236
Amorphous metal transformers - AMTs ................................................................................................................. 236
Japan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 236
China ....................................................................................................................................................................... 236
United States .......................................................................................................................................................... 236
India ........................................................................................................................................................................ 237
Taiwan ..................................................................................................................................................................... 237
Other ....................................................................................................................................................................... 238
HTS –high temperature superconductor transformers .......................................................................................... 238
23. TRANSFORMER PRODUCTION CAPACITY ................................................................................................................. 239
MANUFACTURING CAPACITY, GLOBAL AND BY REGION ........................................................................................ 239
Capacity utilisation.................................................................................................................................................. 241
North America (United States, Canada) ................................................................................................................. 241
Europe ..................................................................................................................................................................... 242
CIS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 242
Mexico .................................................................................................................................................................... 242
Latin America (excluding Mexico) ........................................................................................................................... 243
China ....................................................................................................................................................................... 243
India ........................................................................................................................................................................ 245
Korea ....................................................................................................................................................................... 246
Africa ....................................................................................................................................................................... 246
South Africa ............................................................................................................................................................ 247
24. GLOBAL MARKET SHARE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMERS.................................................................. 248
25. LOGISTICS .................................................................................................................................................................. 249
1.Design of transformers ........................................................................................................................................ 249
2.Preparation of a Transformer .............................................................................................................................. 249
3.Faults or damages to transformers ..................................................................................................................... 250
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4.Voyage Assessment .............................................................................................................................................250
5.Transport execution .............................................................................................................................................251
6.Handling ...............................................................................................................................................................251
7.Securing................................................................................................................................................................251
Rail transport ..........................................................................................................................................................252
North America .........................................................................................................................................................252
Europe .....................................................................................................................................................................252
Africa .......................................................................................................................................................................253
Asia Pacific ..............................................................................................................................................................253
Road transport ........................................................................................................................................................254
Rear wheel drive .....................................................................................................................................................256
Clearance ................................................................................................................................................................258
Alternative solutions ...............................................................................................................................................259
26. ELECTRIFICATION ......................................................................................................................................................261
Sub-Saharan Africa ..................................................................................................................................................266
Asia ..........................................................................................................................................................................266
MENA ......................................................................................................................................................................266
Latin America ..........................................................................................................................................................266
Europe .....................................................................................................................................................................267
CIS ...........................................................................................................................................................................267
North America .........................................................................................................................................................267
The impact of electrification on the electrical supply industry ..............................................................................267
METHODOLOGY ..............................................................................................................................................................269
Short term demand forecast...................................................................................................................................269
Long term demand cycle .........................................................................................................................................269
Demand cycles and the market ..............................................................................................................................270
StatPlan Energy Databases .....................................................................................................................................270
Transformation capacity .........................................................................................................................................271
Review of the transformer databases.....................................................................................................................273
1.Utility/industry ownership ...................................................................................................................................273
2.The proportion of GSU/transmission PTs ............................................................................................................274
3.Redundancy. ........................................................................................................................................................274
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Figures
Figure 1: Annual growth of the transformer market in volume and value, 2018-2025 37
Figure 2: The global transformer fleet 2012-2017, generator and transformer capacity 39
Figure 3: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017 39
Figure 4: LPT, 265 MVA, 525 kV 42
Figure 5: MPT 60 MVA, 275 kV. 42
Figure 6: SPT with 12.5 MVA with OLTC ( On-Load Tap Changer) 43
Figure 7: An 800 kV UHVDC converter transformer by ABB 43
Figure 8: Oil-filled distribution transformer, 44
Figure 9: Dry-type distribution transformer 44
Figure 10: Pad-mounted distribution transformer 45
Figure 11: A pole top distribution transformer 45
Figure 12: Ratio of distribution transformers to generating capacity, installed base 1960-2016 48
Figure 13: Imports of power transformers (Oil filled ≥ 10 MVA), into the United States from
Canada, Mexico and Korea 2000-2017 $ value 56
Figure 14: Distribution voltages in Europe (EU 27) 66
Figure 15: Market capitalisation of seleced European utilities 69
Figure 16: Investment as a % of GDP, selected countries and economic groupings, 1980-20 104
Figure 17: Market shares for UHV AC and HVDC transformers in China 109
Figure 18: Market shares of leading transformer manufacturers for
SGCC’s HV, MV and LV tenders 111
Figure 19: Production, consumption and exports of distribution transformers in
China, 2006-2017 112
Figure 20: Structure of the Chinese electric power industry 114
Figure 21: An example of an electricity network 166
Figure 22: The UK electrical power transmission and distribution system 167
Figure 23: The traditional centralised electricity system compared with distributed power 168
Figure 24: Evolution of transformers in voltage kV and capacity MVA 174
Figure 25: Proportion of capacity (MVA) generator, utility and private industry ownership
of power and distribution transformers by region, 2018 175
Figure 26: Installed capacity of power and distribution transformers, GVA, 1900 - 2050 176
Figure 27: Global installed transformation capacity and demand, GVA, 1900 - 2050 177
Figure 28: The cycle of demand, new and replacement capacity, GVA, 1900 - 2050 178
Figure 29: Global utility transformation capacity installed base by region, GVA, 1900 - 2050 179
Figure 30: Demand for power and distribution transformers, China and the World,
GVA, 1900 - 2050 180
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Figure 31: Regional variation in long term demand, 1900 - 2050 ......................................................... 181
Figure 32: Conventional grid with unidirectional power flow .................................................................. 191
Figure 33: Active distribution grid with intelligent transformer substations .......................................... 191
Figure 34: Producer Price Indeces for power and distribution transformers in the United States
1967 to 2018........................................................................................................................... 201
Figure 35: EU 28 Producer Price Index for industrial manufactures 2012 to Q2 - 2018 ..................... 202
Figure 36: China Producer Price Index for industrial goods 2009 to 2018, 2009 = 100 .................... 202
Figure 37: Japan Producer Price Index for electrical machinery and equipment 1996 to 2018 ......... 203
Figure 38: The manufacturing processes for CRGO and CNRGO ............................................................ 205
Figure 39: Copper prices 1970 to 2020 .................................................................................................. 208
Figure 40: Aluminium prices 1970 to 2020 ............................................................................................ 208
Figure 41: Transformer commodity price index 2009 to 2018 .............................................................. 209
Figure 42: Global generating capacity mix, 1990 - 2050........................................................................ 210
Figure 43: Global generating capacity mix by energy source, 1990 - 2050 .......................................... 211
Figure 44: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013 ............ 212
Figure 45: Capacity and generation by each energy source as percent of total, 1990 - 2013 ............ 213
Figure 46: The vast majority of countries have yet to take such action. ................................................ 221
Figure 47: Global market share power and distribution transformers, $ value, 2018 ......................... 248
Figure 48: Two Schnabel cars unloaded .................................................................................................. 253
Figure 49: Schnabel car with load ............................................................................................................ 254
Figure 50: The largest load ever transported by road in the United Kingdom ....................................... 255
Figure 51: Goldhofer heavy duty load ....................................................................................................... 256
Figure 52: Goldhofer rear wheel drive vehicle ......................................................................................... 256
Figure 53: The trailer approaches a narrow turning ................................................................................ 257
Figure 54: The trailer’s rear wheels begin the turn .................................................................................. 257
Figure 55: The trailer has turned the corner ............................................................................................ 257
Figure 56: Overhead obstructions ............................................................................................................ 259
Figure 57: Transformer off the road ......................................................................................................... 260
Figure 58: Share of people without electricity access for developing countries, 2016 ........................ 261
Figure 59: World electrification - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050 .................................. 262
Figure 60: World electrification – number and % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050 ........... 263
Figure 61: Selected major countries - % of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050 .......................... 264
Figure 62: Selected major countries – Number of households with electricity, 1900 - 2050 .............. 264
Figure 63: Regional totals of electrified households 2010 to 2050 ...................................................... 265
Figure 64: Additions of electrified households in each decade by region, 2010 to 2050 .................... 266
Figure 65: Diagram of new plus total replacement capacity ................................................................... 270
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Tables
Table 1: Transformer demand, GVA and $ in real and nominal values, 2018-25 ................................... 37
Table 2: World transformer demand forecast, 2018-2025, GVA .............................................................. 38
Table 3: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal ..................... 38
Table 4: World transformer demand forecast, ........................................................................................... 38
Table 5: World transformer demand forecast at ex-factory cost, .............................................................. 38
Table 6: The global transformer fleet by transformer type, 2012-2017, ................................................. 40
Table 7: North America, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal .... 47
Table 8: North America, power and distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA ........... 47
Table 9: North America, power transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity ......................... 47
Table 10: North America, distribution transformer sales forecast, 2018-2025, MVA capacity .............. 47
Table 11: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ................................................................. 48
Table 12: Detailed shipment data for power and distribution transformers in the US, 2009 ................ 49
Table 13: Market shares of Power Transformer Producers in the United States, 2015 ......................... 54
Table 14: Europe, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal ............. 61
Table 15: Europe, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ................................................................... 62
Table 16: Europe, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ................................................................ 63
Table 17: Europe, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ....................................................... 64
Table 18: French power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 .......................................................... 73
Table 19: German power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ........................................................ 76
Table 20: Italian power and distribution transformer stock, 2017 ........................................................... 79
Table 21: Spanish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ........................................................ 80
Table 22: Swiss power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ............................................................ 81
Table 23: UK power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ................................................................ 83
Table 24: Turkish power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ......................................................... 85
Table 25: CIS, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal ................... 87
Table 26: CIS, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ......................................................................... 87
Table 27: CIS, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ...................................................................... 87
Table 28: CIS distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ............................................................... 87
Table 29: Russian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ........................................................ 88
Table 30: MENA, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal .............. 91
Table 31: MENA, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ..................................................................... 92
Table 32: MENA, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA .................................................................. 92
Table 33: MENA, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ......................................................... 93
Table 34: Iranian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018.......................................................... 94
Table 35: Saudi Arabian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 .............................................. 96
Table 36: UAE power and distribution transformer stock, 2018............................................................... 98
Table 37: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal ... 100
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Table 38: Asia Pacific, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA .......................................................... 101
Table 39: Asia Pacific, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ....................................................... 102
Table 40: Asia Pacific, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA .............................................. 103
Table 41: Chinese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ...................................................... 106
Table 42: The operational UHV circuits in China in 2017 ........................................................................ 107
Table 43: UHV circuits under construction in China in 2017 .................................................................. 108
Table 44: Key Technologies for UHV AC systems ..................................................................................... 110
Table 45: Key technologies for UVH DC systems ..................................................................................... 110
Table 46: Japanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 .................................................... 118
Table 47: Transformer manufacturers in Japan ....................................................................................... 120
Table 48: Indian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ......................................................... 122
Table 49: Indian transformer production capacity GVA ........................................................................... 125
Table 50: Transformer manufacturers in India......................................................................................... 127
Table 51: Indonesian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ................................................. 128
Table 52: Korean power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ....................................................... 130
Table 53: Taiwanese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 .................................................. 132
Table 54: Thai power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ............................................................ 134
Table 55: LAC, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal ................ 136
Table 56: LAC, total transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA....................................................................... 137
Table 57: LAC, power transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA .................................................................... 137
Table 58: LAC, distribution transformer sales, 2018-2025, MVA ........................................................... 138
Table 59: Brazilian power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ..................................................... 139
Table 60: Mexican power and distribution transformer stock, 2018 ..................................................... 141
Table 61: Costs and mark-up from Bill of Materials to Capex ................................................................. 144
Table 62: Electricity transmission and distribution companies of the world. ......................................... 147
Table 63: Transformer demand at ex-factory and installed cost by region, 2018-2025, $ .................. 152
Table 64: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, World, 2018 ....................................................................................... 153
Table 65: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and
ownership, World, 2018 ............................................................................................................ 153
Table 66: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, North America, 2018 ......................................................................... 153
Table 67: Number and average capacity in kVA of Distribution transformers by country and
ownership North America, 2018 .............................................................................................. 153
Table 68: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, Europe, 2018 ..................................................................................... 154
Table 69: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership, Europe, 2018 ......................................................................................................... 155
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Table 70: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, CIS, 2018 ............................................................................................ 156
Table 71: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership, CIS, 2018 ................................................................................................................ 156
Table 72: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018 ................................................ 157
Table 73: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership, Middle East and North Africa, 2018 ..................................................................... 158
Table 74: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018 ............................................................................. 159
Table 75: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership, Asia Pacific, 2018 .................................................................................................. 160
Table 76: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 ................................................................ 161
Table 77: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and
ownership Africa, 2017 ............................................................................................................. 162
Table 78: Generator, Utility and Industrial Power and Distribution transformer capacity (MVA) by
country and ownership, LAC, 2018 .......................................................................................... 163
Table 79: Number and average capacity in kVA of distribution transformers by country and o
ownership, LAC, 2018 ............................................................................................................... 164
Table 80: Average consumers per LV distribution transformer in selected countries, 2018............... 171
Table 81: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), World, 2018 ........... 182
Table 82: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Europe, 2018 ......... 183
Table 83: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), CIS, 2018 ............... 184
Table 84: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Middle East
and North Africa, 2018 ............................................................................................................. 185
Table 85: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW),
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 ........................................................................................................ 186
Table 86: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW), Asia Pacific, 2018.. 188
Table 87: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW),
North America, 2018 ................................................................................................................ 189
Table 88: Ratios of transformation capacity (MVA) to generating capacity (MW),
Latin America, 2018 ................................................................................................................. 189
Table 89: Cost of materials. ...................................................................................................................... 204
Table 90: Voltage level of for connection to the grid, German rules ....................................................... 214
Table 91: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Czech Republic, 2012............... 215
Table 92: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Germany, 2012 ......................... 215
Table 93: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Italy, 2012 ................................. 217
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Table 94: Grid voltage connection by installation size for solar PV in Spain, 2012 ............................... 218
Table 95: Network losses by region .......................................................................................................... 220
Table 96: A summary of liquid filled distribution transformer efficiency programmes .......................... 232
Table 97:Summary of dry-type distribution transformer efficiency programmes ................................... 233
Table 98: Manufacturers of energy efficient transformers in China, 2013 ............................................ 237
Table 99: World production capacity for transformers, GVA, 2019 ........................................................ 240
Table 100: Global leaders’ production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019 ..... 240
Table 101: CIS, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2013 ........................ 242
Table 102: China, domestic production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2019.... 244
Table 103: India, production capacity power and distribution transformers, GVA, 2007 - 2019 ......... 246
Table 104: Population and electrical parameters of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa .................... 267
Transformer Report Sample Pages
20
1. THE POWER AND DISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMER
MARKET
Total demand for power and distribution transformers in 2017 is estimated at XXX GVA, rising by a cagr of
XX% to XXX GVA in 2022. The value in 2017 is $XX billion at ex-factory cost, increasing in nominal values
by a cagr of XX% to $XX billion in 2022.
Growth in nominal terms will be fastest in India at XX% and China at XX%, followed by the Middle East at
XX% and Africa at XX%, LAC XX%. The CIS will follow with XX%, North America with XX%, and Europe with
XX%. The high Indian growth is due to a combination of a spurt of investment and high predicted inflation.
Over the five-year period power transformers will achieve capacity growth of XX% a year and distribution
transformers XX%.
The value per MVA will increase by a cagr of XX% in real terms up to 2022 and $XX% in nominal terms.
Table 1: Power and distribution transformer demand, MVA and $ in real and nominal values
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 cagr
Value nominal $ million
Value real $ million
Total GVA
$/MVA nominal
$/MVA real
With surplus production capacity and falling metal prices, transformer prices…………………………………….
Transformer Report Sample Pages
21
NORTH AMERICAN TRANSFORMER MARKET
MARKET REVIEW
The United States market for power and distribution transformers is predicted to grow at a cagr of XX% in
nominal value from $XX billion in 2017 to $XX billion in 2022. Demand for power transformers will remain
strong because of the need for modernisation and replacement of aging assets. Distribution transformer
demand will be healthy with an increasing population and the construction market on a path of sustainable
growth.
Consumption of transformers in the United States has fluctuated over the last 30 years and has not risen
constantly. Notably, the figures for 2009 were depressed as was the case in most countries, due to the
financial crisis. In volume terms demand has risen since then but in value growth has been held back by
declining commodity prices and excess production capacity around the world.
Transformer stock
There are plentiful statistics about distribution transformers in the United States, including historical tables
which enable us to plot the development of the distribution transformer stock over time in numbers and
capacity and so to chart the development of transformers in size. There is a lack of information for power
transformers.
Table 2: US power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
MVA Number
PTs
DTs
Sources: DOE, various reports, StatPlan estimates
There are over XXXXX generators and XXXXXX power transformers in the United States.
Transformer Report Sample Pages
22
EUROPEAN TRANSFORMER MARKETS
The European market for power and distribution transformers in 2018 is estimated at $XX billion, rising to
$XX billion in 2025. Real growth of transformer demand in Europe will average XX% compared with
nominal growth of XX%.
Table 3: Europe, total transformer sales forecast at ex-factory cost, 2018-2025, $ nominal million
All transformers 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 cagr
Albania
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Europe
Transformer Report Sample Pages
23
THE VALUE CHAIN - FROM MATERIALS TO CAPEX
The cost of any product such as transformers or switchgear can be measured in a number of ways, from
being a piece of unworked metal, to its final installation in working order and finally as a constituent of
capital expenditure. Different price levels are important in this supply chain, and the point of interest in
the chain depends on the business to which the value is being applied. The value chain starts with the
input of raw materials, such as cold rolled steel, GOES, copper, aluminium etc. These inputs typically
constitute from 60-80% of the manufacturing cost of a finished product.
The value chain at 6 levels
1. BOM, bill of materials - Metal producers and refiners are concerned about the prices they can get for
their output in its basic form, ingots, rods, plates etc. For the equipment manufacturers this price
translates into the BOM (bill of materials) as a cost of production.
2. Manufactured cost - Adding the cost of fabricating the materials into finished products produces the
manufactured cost.
3. Factory gate price (MSP) - The addition of non-manufacturing costs such as sales and finance costs
brings it up to the factory gate price or manufacturer’s selling price. This does not include any transport
cost. (Note: factory gate price is sometimes quoted with manufacturer’s profit and sometimes not.)
4. Buyer’s price (equivalent to RSP) - Products such as electrical equipment is almost always sold with
a multi-channel strategy. Power and distribution transformers are a good example; there are usually
two sales channels. Power and large distribution transformers are bespoke items, each one
manufactured to a unique design for a unique purpose. They
……………………………………………………………………………………………...
Transformer Report Sample Pages
24
CHINA
Annual demand power and distribution transformers
In 2017, sales of power transformers amounted to XXX GVA and distribution transformers XXX GVA.
Annual expenditure on power and distribution transformers in China is estimated at $XX billion in 2017,
rising at a nominal cagr of XX% to $XX billion in 2022.
Transformer stock
Table 4: Chinese power and distribution transformer stock, 2018
MVA Number
PTs GSU
Utility
Industry
Total PTs
DTs GSU
Utility
Industry
Total DTs
PTs + DTs
Sources: Electricity Council, SGCC, StatPlan estimates
XX% of transformers are purchased by utilities and generators and XX% by industry. China has
strengthened super-high and ultra-high voltage power grid construction in recent years, but ≥ 500 kV
power transformers only occupy a small share in the power transformer market, while ≤ 220 kV power
transformers are dominant. The transmission voltages start at 35 kV and over in China, although a small
amount of distribution is at 35 kV. The average capacity of distribution transformers in China is 200 kVA
and.
UHV AC and HVDC transformer markets in China
UHV AC and UHV DC transmission voltages in China are 1,000 kV AC and 800 kV DC, respectively. UHV AC
and DC has been pioneered and lines built in Russia and the CIS, Japan, USA, Italy, Canada, Brazil, China
and other countries. A comprehensive review in 2009 of UHV AC and DC development in China and other
countries, concluded that, although UHV transmission was technically feasible, there was no transmission
system at the voltages of 1,000 kV AC in operation. 800 kV DC and above were being operated.
At a time of rapid economic development there is an imbalance in the geographical distribution of Chinese
energy resources and loads. More than ⅔ of the coal resources are in the North and North West of China
and more than ¾ of the exploitable hydro capacity in the South West, including Sichuan, Yunnan and Tibet.
However, more than ⅔ of energy demand is in the relatively developed Central and Eastern regions, and
the important energy generating bases are all 800–3,000 km from the load centres. This means that there
………………………….
Transformer Report Sample Pages
25
THE LONG-TERM DEMAND CYCLE 1900-2050
INSTALLED CAPACITY
Global installed transformer capacity has risen every year throughout the last and current centuries,
from XXX GVA in 1900 to XXXX GVA in 2017. The growth has been linear and it will continue as such until
it……………………….
Growth of installed transformer capacity is linear, but demand for equipment is cyclical.
Figure 1: Global installed transformation capacity and demand 1900 - 2050, GVA
Transformer Report Sample Pages
26
PRICE TRENDS AND FACTORS DRIVING TRANSFORMER
PRICES
The prices of electrical equipment have been volatile over the years and will continue to be so. Many
factors contribute to this. The principal factors influencing transformer prices are:
• Demand for transformers.
• Production capacity.
• Input prices of raw materials
• The economic and financial climate.
• Inflation.
•
PPI - Producer Price Index
The principal producing countries for power and distribution transformers are the EU, (especially
Germany, Italy and France, followed by Poland, Portugal, Finland and Croatia), the USA, Japan, Korea and
China. The following sections show the Producer Price Index figures for industrial manufactures,
except…………………………