transformation index bti 2012 dr. martin brusis (university of munich) dr. hauke hartmann...
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Transformation IndexBTI 2012
Dr. Martin Brusis (University of Munich)
Dr. Hauke Hartmann (Bertelsmann Stiftung)
Budapest І May 16, 2012
Transformationsindex BTI 2012 · Gütersloh · 22.03.2012 · 2
Political Performance in International Comparison
BTI 2003
116 Countries
BTI 2006
119 Countries
BTI 2008
125 Countries
BTI 2010
128 Countries
BTI 2012
128 Countries
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2 Indices, 3 Dimensions
Status Index
Status of Political and Economic Transformation
Economic TransformationPolitical Transformation
Management Index
Political Leadership towards Democracy and a Market Economy
Transformation Management
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3 Dimensions, 17 Criteria, 52 Questions
5 Criteria
Level of DifficultySteering CapabilityResource EfficiencyConsensus BuildingInternational Cooperation
Transformation Management
7 Criteria
Economic Transformation
5 Criteria
StatenessPolitical ParticipationRule of LawStability of DemocraticInstitutionsPolitical and Social Integration
Political Transformation
1.2.3.4.
5.
6.
7.
8.9.
10.11.12.
13.14.15.16.17.
Level of SocioeconomicDevelopmentOrganization of the Market/CompetitionCurrency and Price StabilityPrivate PropertyWelfare RegimeEconomic PerformanceSustainability
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3 Dimensions, 17 Criteria, 52 Questions
5 Kriterien
SchwierigkeitsgradGestaltungsfähigkeitRessourceneffizienzKonsensbildungInternationale Zusammenarbeit
Transformation Management
7 Kriterien
Economic Transformation
5 Criteria
StatenessPolitical ParticipationRule of LawStability of DemocraticInstitutionsPolitical and Social Integration
Political Transformation
1.2.3.4.
5.
6.
7.
8.9.
10.11.
12.
13.14.15.16.17.
Sozioökonomisches EntwicklungsniveauMarkt- und Wettbewerbs-ordnungCurrency and Price StabilityPrivate PropertyWelfare RegimeLeistungsstärke derVolkswirtschaftlichen Sustainability
Political ParticipationFree and Fair ElectionsEffective Power to GovernAssociation/Assembly RightsFreedom of Expression
2.2.12.22.32.4
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BTI Codebook
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BTI Workflow
1. Country Assessments
4. Inter-regional Reviewand Calibration
2. First Review
3. Intra-regional Reviewand Calibration
5. Final Reviewand Calibration
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Publications
Online: www.bti-project.org
Interactive Transformation Atlas
Transformation Index BTI 2012 (also as e-book)
Ranking Transformation IndexBTI 2012
128 In-depth Country Reports
7 Comprehensive Regional Reports
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Political Transformation
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
23
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
Defective Democracies
39
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
Defective Democracies
Highly Defective Democracies
13
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
Defective Democracies
Highly Defective Democracies
Moderate Autocracies
20
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
Defective Democracies
Highly Defective Democracies
Moderate Autocracies
Hard-line Autocracies
33
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Political Transformation
Democracies in Consolidation
Defective Democracies
Highly Defective Democracies
Moderate Autocracies
Hard-line Autocracies
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Free and Fair Elections
10—9 Points
8—7 Points
6 Points
5—1 Points
BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 2012
41
22
50
40
26
46
33
27
46
30
32
48
6 13 22 18
Number of Countries per Level, BTI 2006—2012
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Eastern Europe
Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights & Freedom of Expression, BTI 2006—2012
Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights
Deteriorations in Freedom of Expression
Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights and Freedom of Expression
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Criterion “Political Participation”
Hungary in International Comparison, BTI 2006—2012
BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 20121
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hungary
East-Central Europe
Southeast Europe
Global Average
Changes 2010—2012 East-Central Europe
Free and Fair Elections
Hungary -1
Effective Power to Govern
---------------------
Association/Assembly Rights
Hungary -1
Freedom of Expression
Hungary -2Latvia -1Slovakia -1
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Criterion “Rule of Law”
Hungary in International Comparison, BTI 2006—2012
Changes 2010—2012 East-Central Europe
Separation of Powers
Hungary -3Slovakia -1Poland +1
Independent Judiciary
Czech Rep., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia -1
Prosecution of Office Abuse
---------------------
Civil Rights
Hungary -1Slovakia -1Poland +1
BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 20121
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hungary
East-Central Europe
Southeast Europe
Global Average
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Economic Transformation
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
15
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
Functioning Market Economies
15
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
Functioning Market Economies
Market Economies with Functional Flaws
51
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
Functioning Market Economies
Market Economies with Functional Flaws
Poorly Functioning Market Economies
40
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
Functioning Market Economies
Market Economies with Functional Flaws
Poorly Functioning Market Economies
Rudimentary Market Economies
7
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Economic Transformation
Developed Market Economies
Functioning Market Economies
Market Economies with Functional Flaws
Poorly Functioning Market Economies
Rudimentary Market Economies
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Macrostability by Region, BTI 2006—2012
East-Central and Southeast Europe
BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 2012
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Latin America and the Carribean
Middle East and North Africa
Global AverageAsia and OceaniaPost-Soviet EurasiaSouth and East Africa
West and Central Africa
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Transformation Management
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Transformation Management
very good
8
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Transformation Management
very good
good
36
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Transformation Management
very good
good
moderate
43
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Transformation Management
very good
good
moderate
weak
27
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Transformation Management
very good
good
moderate
weak
failed or nonexistent
14
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Transformation Management
very good
good
moderate
weak
failed or nonexistent
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Deteriorations in Hungary‘s Management Performance (BTI 2010—2012)
Indicator Score Excerpt from Country Report
Prioritization 7 (-2)“Fidesz’s steering capacity has markedly declined. Indeed, the party has shown a sizable capacity for conquering positions of power but very low capacity for policy-making.”
Policy Learning 6 (-2)“The government has so far followed trial and error. EU budget regulations […] have driven this state of permanent improvisation. […] Civil servants can [now] be dismissed without any explanation.”
Consensus on Goals 8 (-2)“All political actors and/or parliamentary political parties advocate the goals of democracy and market economy. However, there are deep cleavages over the concepts of democracy and market economy between/among political actors.”
Anti-democratic Actors 8 (-2)Jobbik is an extreme right party […]. The Fidesz government began with a symbolic piece of legislation […] to appease the extreme right and to weaken Jobbik’s popular support and appropriate it for themselves.
Reconciliation 5 (-2)“The present political leadership manipulates the memories of historical injustices as a weapon against political opponents. It did this with both the terror victims of the 1950s and the extreme right demonstrators in October 2006.”
Credibility 7 (-2)“The government tries to present itself as a credible and reliable partner but it is not really trusted by many […] EU leaders, the IMF and the financial community.”
Regional Cooperation 8 (-2)“At formal-legal level, regional cooperation is working well. […] But in “high politics” like dual citizenship, the government created tensions with neighbors.”
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