transboundary air pollution – science and policy...

Transboundary Air Pollution – Science and Policy Interactions in

Europe over 50 years

Peringe Grennfelt

Symposium - Acid Rain 50 years

Stockholm 6-7 November 2017

Initial remarks In my 18 minutes I will concentrate my presentation to a few occasions when science and policy have interfered.

Thanks to all who gave the opportunity to be part of this journey. In addition to Svante Odén I want to mention – Cyrill Brosset, who introduced me to the area in 1968 and 1969 – Hans Hultberg who I met the first week in November 1969 and with

whom I have collaborated since then

– This is my history of the 50 years of acid rain

Science Policy

The first alarm, Odén 1967 Sweden’s case

study UN Conference 1972 OECD projekt: “Acid rain

a transboundary problem”

CLRTAP Convention

First S Protocol 1985

Second Sulphur Protocol 1994

Gothenburg Protocol 1999

EU CAFE Proposal

Critical loads and levels

Soil acidification verified

Multipollutant integrated assessment model

Dynamic modelling Recovery

Dis

cove

ry

Con

sens

us

Inno

vativ

e st

rate

gies

Li

nkag

es w

ith

emer

ging

issu

es NEC Directive

Gothenburg Prot. revison

Climate, human health,intercontinental transport, nitrogen

NOx Protocol 1988

Start ICPs.

Start of EMEP

2010

1970

1980

1990

2000

Europe

Catchment recovery experiments (Gårdsjön)

EU directive

OECD Report

Late 80’s, and 90’s Critical loads Cost-effective strategies Second sulphur protocol Gothenburg Protocol

Early 80’s Forest damages First sulphur protocol ICP programmes on effects

1970’s Lake acidification Transboundary transport EMEP and CLRTAP

After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport

SNSF project 72-80

CLRTAP Assessment Report

The early questions from policy

What caused the extinction of fish?

– SNSF and other research efforts showed the causual linking

– Al killed the fish rather than low pH – important to show that acid deposition caused the release of inorganic Al

How important is the transboundary transport for the acid deposition?

Key publications Muniz and Leivestad Hultberg and Stensson Rosseland

1970s The transboundary problem

Cyrill Brosset made early observations on long-range transport in 1965 and set up a first network in 1966

A European project under OECD was set up in 1972 to examine the transboundary nature of sulphur emissions

The outcome: “Sulphur compounds do travel long distances n the atmosphere and has shown that the air quality in any European country is measurably affected by emissions from other European countries” (1977)

Starting point for EMEP (1977)

Lesson learned: Involving countries through monitoring, research and emission inventories

Some key persons In the setup of the OECD project Brynulf Ottar Anton Eliassen Arne Semb Lennart Granat Alec Estlander Cyrill Brosset Göran Persson

The birth of a treaty – during the cold war

Very few contacts between East and West

Within the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe environment was mentioned as a topic.

Soviet Union proposed cooperation on air pollution

West was very sceptic. Thought it was just propaganda

The Norwegian minister of environment at that time Gro Harlem Brundtland facilitated the contacts

The Convention included already from the beginning bodies for policy and science

Key persons Gro Harlem Bruntland and Valentin Sokolovski

Executive Body

Working Group on Effects (1981)

EMEP (1977)

Artic Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Slovenia

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Finland

Sweden

Georgia

Norway

Belarus

Czech Rep. Ukraine

Denmark

Moldova

Germany

Yugoslavia

Austria

Bulgaria

Liechtenstein

Turkey

Italy

Monaco

Cyprus

Switzerland

Malta

Netherlands

Greece

Belgium

F.Y.R.ofMacedonia

Luxembourg

Albania

France

Bosnia andHerzegovina

Spain

Croatia

Portugal

IrelandUnited Kingdom

Romania

Russian Federation

Iceland

Kara SeaBarents Sea

North Sea

Atlantic Ocean

Mediterranean Sea

Black Sea Caspian Sea

Aral Sea

Canada

of America

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

AzerbaijanArmenia

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan Tajikistan

Science Policy




CLRTAP Convention




EU CAFE Proposal





Dis

cove

ry

Con

sens

us

Inno

vativ

e st

rate

gies

Li

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ith

emer

ging

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es NEC Directive



NOx Protocol 1988

Start ICPs.

Start of EMEP

2010

1970

1980

1990

2000

Europe


EU directive

OECD Report




After 2000 EU enters the scene Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport

SNSF project 72-80


Monitoring key issue for getting countries on board

Source-receptor matrixes for sulphur – who to blame

Expanding the monitoring network and standardising monitoring methods (CCC)

Financing EMEP: Protocol 1984

Establishment of the ICP programmes: Waters (Norway), Forests (Germany) Integrated Monitoring (Finland and Sweden) Materials (Sweden), and Vegetation (UK)

Expansion of monitoring programmes (nitrogen oxides, ammonia, ozone)

Forest dieback changed the scene

Forest damages in Germany

The serious situation in the Black Triangle

The 30% club and negotiations of the first sulphur protocol

The UK debate

Key persons Bernhard Ulrich Tomas Paces Bedrich Moldan

Integrated ecosystems projects

The start: The SNSF Project

The Lake Gårdsjön Project

Solling

International research programs:

The SWAP Project

NITREX – gave a basic understanding on the dynamics of nitrogen in forested ecosystems

Key persons Lars Overrein Arne Tollan Bernhard Ulrich Hans Hultberg Folke Andersson Hans Martin Seip Rick Battarbee Dick Wrtight and others

Science Policy




CLRTAP Convention




EU CAFE Proposal





Dis

cove

ry

Con

sens

us

Inno

vativ

e st

rate

gies

Li

nkag

es w

ith

emer

ging

issu

es NEC Directive



NOx Protocol 1988

Start ICPs.

Start of EMEP

2010

1970

1980

1990

2000

Europe


EU directive

OECD Report




After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions Hemispheric transport

SNSF project 72-80


Critical loads and Integrated Assessment modelling

CL was first discussed in 1982 (Stockholm)

The large step was taken in 1988 through a Workshop in Skokloster, Sweden:

Acceptance by the Convention to use the concept

Establishment of the Coordinating Centre for Effects (NL)

Integrated Assessment Modelling models were developed

Consensus on the IIASA model in 1993

The basis for the 2nd Sulphur Protocol

Key persons Jan Nilsson Max Posch Jean-Paul Hettelingh Arne Henriksen Wim de Vries Harald Sverdrup

Key persons Leen Hordijk Rob Maas Markus Amann Anton Eliassen

21-22 January 1992: Nordic workshop in Oslo organised by Harald Dovland

Key topics

The second sulphur protocol; how to use critical loasd in an optimised model approach that could be accepted and form a basis for negotiations? Introduction Anton Eliassen

How to continue with the next Nox protocol. Introduction Oystein Hov and Peringe Grennfelt

The possibility of using emissions trading for emission control optimisation. Introduction Finn Försund

Some important steps were taken for the coming protocols.

Financed to a large extent by Nordic Council of Ministers

Key persons Harald Dovland Lars Björkbom

THE GAP

GAP CLOSURE

(Transekt över Europa)

Anton’s solution: Use intermediate goals in relation to CL (gap closure) 60% gap closure was then used

(Eliassen 1992)

Second sulphur protocol (1994)

The idea was accepted in Geneva as a basis and the optimizing model RAINS developed by IIASA could be used.

The results was surprisingly good and was used as a basis for the negotiations – control measures were necessary in practically all countries

The Gothenburg Protocol 1999

Emission reductions under the Gothenburg protocol 1990-2010

SO2 NOx VOC NH3

EU - 75 - 50 - 56 - 15 Other countries - 49 - 31 - 28 - 20 Europe total -61 - 42 - 44 - 18

Signed and/or ratified by more than 30 parties. For sulphur the overall target was reached already in 2004, for remaining countries the emission limits were reached for amost all compounds by 2010.

SO2

NOx

VOC

NH3

EU

- 75

- 50

- 56

- 15

Other countries

- 49

- 31

- 28

- 20

Europe total

-61

- 42

- 44

- 18

Science Policy




CLRTAP Convention




EU CAFE Proposal





Dis

cove

ry

Con

sens

us

Inno

vativ

e st

rate

gies

Li

nkag

es w

ith

emer

ging

issu

es NEC Directive



NOx Protocol 1988

Start ICPs.

Start of EMEP

2010

1970

1980

1990

2000

Europe


EU directive

OECD Report




After 2000 Recovery Health effects Nitrogen Climate interactions -SLCP Hemispheric transport

SNSF project 72-80


Recovery from acidification - dynamic modelling

Some roof projects in Europe; Risdalsheia and Gårdsjön

A separate group was set up under the Convention Joint expert group on dynamic modelling.

Key persons Dick Wright Jack Cosby Harald Sverdrup Filip Moldan

Nitrogen – a key area for research and policy development

Several projects from 2005 and onwards

Key outcome European Nitrogen Assessment

Increased policy interest

Interest expanded towards N as a nutrition

www.nine-esf.org/ENA

ENA Authorship 200 experts, 21 countries & 89 organizations Scientifically independent process

Key persons Mark Sutton Jan Willem Erisman

21

North America, Europe, South Asia and East Asia cover ca. 60-70 % of human-related emissions

Within one month the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere is mixed.

Ozone produced in Asia is transported to North America, from North America to Europe etc.

NA EU EA SA

A special case is methane which stays about 10 years in the atmosphere, and is both a greenhouse gas and an air pollutant.

Hemispheric transport HTAP

Key organisers Terry Keating André Zuber Frank Dentener

Facilitators for science – policy interactions

Large scale experiments and research programs of significant policy impact

– SNSF 1972-80 – Lake Gårdsjön 1979- – SWAP 1983-88 – NITREX – Eurotrac 1986-2002 – ASTA 1998-2007 – NitroEurope 2006-2011 – ECLAIRE 2011-2015

Acid Rain Conferences

– 1975 Ohio – 1980 Sandefjord – 1985 Muskoka – 1990 Glasgow – 1995 Göteborg – 2000 Tsukuba – 2005 Prague – 2010 Beijing – 2015 Rochester

Key persons Lars Walloe Lars Overrein Arne Tollan Bernhard Ulrich Hans Hultberg Folke Andersson Rick Battarbee Dick Wright Mark Sutton David Fowler Henning Rodhe

Nordic Council of Ministers An important but not well known actor

Nordic Collaboration through NORDFORSK (from 1969) and Nordic Council of Ministers since mid 70s Supported – the scientific basis for the OECD project 1970-77 – the development of the EMEP monitoring programme – the development of the Critical Loads Concept – the development of the concepts for the 2nd sulphur protocol and the

Gothenburg Protocol – The 2016 Assessment report – a large number of workshops and conferences including the Saltsjöbaden

workshops, including this symposium Initiated field experiment on nitrogen deposition (N saturation) Is still a facilitator for international science and policy work on air pollution The footprint of the projects has been much larger than the amount spent

Key persons Alec Estlander Eli Mari Åsen Lars Lindau

Lessons learnt Windows of opportunity – 1970s – Forest dieback – Critical loads – Integrated Assessment Modelling

Science – policy interactions – Science part of the Convention – Common concepts; critical loads, blame matrices – Integrated Assessment Modelling formed links

Bottom-up science – International collaboration – Distributed responsibilities

Field experiments that gave visibility

Lessons learnt cont.

Public opinion and NGOs played an important role

More difficult in the future despite still strong driving forces

Health effects main driver - acidification and eutrophication benefit

Climate policies will help reducing emissions – still difficult to develop combined policies

Abatement costs have so far been low in comparison to costs for effects to health and ecosystems

Key person Christer Ågren

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Thank you

Transboundary Air Pollution – Science and Policy Interactions in Europe over 50 yearsInitial remarks Slide Number 3The early questions from policy1970s �The transboundary problemThe birth of a treaty – during the cold war�Slide Number 7Monitoring key issue for getting countries on boardForest dieback changed the scene�Integrated ecosystems projects Slide Number 11Critical loads and Integrated Assessment modelling21-22 January 1992: Nordic workshop in Oslo organised by Harald Dovland Slide Number 14Second sulphur protocol (1994)The Gothenburg Protocol 1999 Emission reductions under the Gothenburg protocol 1990-2010Slide Number 18Recovery from acidification -�dynamic modelling Nitrogen – a key area for research and policy development Slide Number 21Facilitators for science – policy interactionsNordic Council of Ministers �An important but not well known actorLessons learnt Lessons learnt cont. Slide Number 26

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