Traffic flows forecasting model

Ministry of Infrastructure of UkraineBy Alexander Malakov

Romania, 2011

TRACECA traffic flows modelOpportunities

Modeling and forecasting freight volumes transported by road,

sea, rail and pipeline in the TRACECA countries

Evaluating the effectiveness of current policies

Identification of infrastructure bottlenecks

Limitations

Not applicable for cargo flows simulation at the national level

Passenger transport and air transport are not included

The quality of data provided by countries

Using the TRACECA traffic flows model

• Evaluating the effectiveness of current policies;• Identification of infrastructure bottlenecks;• Assessing the impact of the implementation of

major projects in the TRACECA region;• Attractiveness assessment of the TRACECA

region• Use as a training modelLong-term use:• Integration of national models

Modeling and objectivesof the Ministry ofInfrastructure of UkraineObjectives of the Ministry Capabilities of the model

Determining a strategy for integrated development of transport infrastructure

- Identification of infrastructure bottlenecks- Priority projects identification - Assessment and comparison of the development scenarios

Determining tariff policy Assessing the impact of changes in tariff policy

Transportation demand planning - Medium-term and long-term planning of transport demand- Visualization of traffic flows

Prioritization of projects

Determination of the effectiveness of project implementation in one transport sector area

Assessment of economic effect

Determining the criteria for prioritizing

Early planning of funding

Prevention of "bottlenecks"

Modeling trainings

• Approaches to modeling

• Software

• Creating simple VISUM based models

• Working with TRACECA model

Stages of model building

1. Methods for creating of traffic flows model and calculation of forecast data

2. Data sources and collection methods3. Software and hardware4. Creating a pilot model5. Resources for creation, maintenance and use6. Creation of the industrial model7. Legislative adoption of the model8. Integration9. Maintenance, updating10. Applications

Problem issues

Transportation areas

Characteristics of external transport

areas

Validation of the model

Statistical data collection

Model integration

Conclusion

Methodological assistance for addressing problem issues

Conducting additional trainings on approaches to the creation of models

Identifying opportunities for integration of transport models

THANK YOU!

Ministry of Infrastructure of UkraineMalakov Alexander

Румыния, 2011