trading in a growing world northern territory cattleman’s association industry conference, darwin...
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Trading in a growing worldNorthern Territory Cattleman’s Association
Industry Conference, Darwin
Dr Andrew StoeckelVisiting Fellow, CAMA,
Australian National University28 March, 2014
The Golden Math
Profit Revenue Costs= _
MarketingExchange rate
Trade barriers
CompetitorsIncomes
Price X Salesvolume
Fixed costs
Variable costs
Another 1 billion middle class consumers by 2030
China
http://info.publicintelligence.net/GlobalTrends2030.pdf
India
Other Asia
Japan
USA
EU
Others
Shares of Global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050
China’s Booming Middle Class
Source: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/3/china%20middle%20class%20kharas/03_china_middle_class_kharas.pdf
Global food projections in White Paper
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Vegetables and fruit
Meat
Cereals
Dairy products
Fish
Other food
Vegetable oils
Vegetable meal
Fish meal and oil
Billion US$
Global demand by commodity
2050
2007
0 200 400 600
Asia
China
India
Rest of Asia
Billion US$
Global food demand
2050
2007
Breakdown of Asia imports
The good news: enormous growth in beef demand
http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf
Met by import demand for beef, not feed grain
http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf
… and the less good news: China faces some enormous challenges
Chinese funding costs
Source: Yiping Huang http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/yiping-huang-presentation.pdf
http://www.ft.com/m/html/expandable-picture.htm?d=true
China real effective exchange rate: 40% appreciation over last 8 years
Jan-1996 Jan-1998 Jan-2000 Jan-2002 Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014
150 150
140 140
130 130
120 120
110 110
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
Inde
x 20
05=
100
To restrain investment growth andnon-bank credit creation the Chineseauthorities are appreciating theexchange rate and raising the interbanklending rate.
40%
China’s Demographic Transition
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0.8 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.6 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3
0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0
Pro
port
ion
of 1
5-64
pop
ulat
ion
Old age dependencyratio
Total dependency ratio(child plus over 65s overworking age population)
China's one child policy has driven anextraordinary fall in the total dependencyratio, which in turn has contributed to highsaving rates. However the working agepopulation will be shrinking from 2014 asthe current generation moves intoretirement leading to rising old agedependancy.
Projection
Japan’s massive debt burden
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1ccc6df2-a86f-11e3-a946-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2wvACigtJ
…. Nor do we have the world market to ourselves
http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf
Barriers to trade
• Asia is where growth is, our part of world and where barriers high
• Korean FTA to see barriers come down to achieve parity with the USA
• Trade Minister Robb currently in Japan negotiating FTA • China FTA talks but our view on in-bound investment• TPP talks but no ‘fast track’ for President• All FTA’s are preferential and also because all meats are
substitutable there is a lot of ‘switching’ of trade and net gains not as big as if multilateral free trade secured.
Productivity slowdown is global
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6cb5aece-7dee-11e3-b409-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2r04smn9t from http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/TED3.pdf
The real competition is from resources sector
http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/jun/pdf/bu-0613-1.pdf
Integrity of the supply chain is critical
Have to ensure that marketers can consistently deliver on the attribute of the product they promote
Need a mix of individual and generic promotion
Input supplier Producer Processor Wholesaler& retailer
Consumer
Product flow
Information and communication
Input supplier Producer Processor Wholesaler& retailer
Consumer
Product flow
Information and communication
Key messages
• Long term prospects for beef promising• Expect short term volatility as global monetary stimulus
unwinds • Productivity problem is global and governments will finally
have to tackle hard structural change decisions• Trade liberalisation part of that, eventually Japan included• Absolute integrity of supply chain critical so marketers can
explore, promote and deliver the attributes that are valuable
• Success is a matter of getting a host of small things right