tradeoffs between security and inspection capacity: policy options for land border ports of entry...

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TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman, Adrian Mata, Robert Falcone, Edward Ostapowicz, Steven Wilrigs, Michael Petragnani, Eric Eisele 85 th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 2006, Washington, DC.

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Page 1: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY:

POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY

Hilma VillegasPatrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Adrian Mata, Robert Falcone, Edward Ostapowicz, Steven Wilrigs, Michael Petragnani, Eric Eisele

85th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 2006, Washington, DC.

Page 2: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

BACKGROUND

Post-9/11, international ports-of-entry are seen as a means to protect the United States against entry of terrorists.

In binational metropolitan areas (El Paso-Ciudad Juarez) ports of entry are key nodes in local transportation network– delays at border propagate throughout region

(Villalobos et al. 2005)

Page 3: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

BACKGROUND

In the fall of 2001 stringent inspections and waits of several hours at the border crossings.– Anecdotal evidence that at least one compartment

of each vehicle was opened and inspected

Inspections have relaxed and border wait times for 2004-2005 are usually 30 minutes or less.

Has the policy of more detailed inspections yielded to the needs of the local community?

Page 4: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

SCOPE OF STUDY

Collect data on existing non-commercial primary inspections to characterize current inspection practices.

Evaluate the feasibility of three alternative inspection strategies

El Paso-Ciudad Juarez area is used as a case study.

Page 5: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED

1. Increase inspection time: open one compartment on each vehicle.

2. Limit time of primary inspection and increase referrals to secondary inspections.

3. Shift crossers from normal, non-commercial lanes to dedicated SENTRI lanes.SENTRI is program of pre-registration and

background checks for frequent crossers with the expectation of shorter lines and faster inspections

Page 6: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

PRIMARY INSPECTION OBSERVATIONS

December 2004 through June of 2005 1228 non-SENTRI (normal) non-commercial

vehicles 789 SENTRI vehicles

Page 7: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

PRIMARY INSPECTION OBSERVATIONS

Non-SENTRI mean = 34 seconds SENTRI mean = 15 seconds

Of non-SENTRI inspections, 45% lasted 20 seconds or less.

Page 8: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

21% of non-SENTRI inspections were “high-attention” inspections (at least one compartment was opened)

5% of SENTRI inspections were “high attention”

Low Attention Normal (non-SENTRI)

High Attention SENTRI

High Attention Normal (non-SENTRI)

High Attention SENTRI

Sample Size 972 746 256 44Median, s 20 11 66 33Mean, s 24 14 70 41

Primary Inspection Observations

Page 9: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Capacity and Demand:Average inspection times obtained from the observations can be converted to throughput rates and compared to demand figures.

Inspection Time (sec)

Maximum Throughput

(Veh/hr)

Off Peak Hour

[3-4 am]

SENTRI 3 15 720 4.7 142

NORMAL (Non-SENTRI, non-

commercial)

NORMAL (Non-SENTRI, non-

commercial)

NORMAL (Non-SENTRI, non-

commercial)

Type of Border Crosser

 Number of Lanes

Demand

Peak Hour [3-

4 pm]Paso del Norte Bridge

9 34 952 31 938Bridge of the Americas

14 34 1480 55 1650Ysleta

12 34 1270 25 756

Page 10: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Option #1: More high attention inspections

Current mean=34 seconds High attention mean=70 seconds Capacity will be exceeded In accord with anecdotal experiences post-9/11

Page 11: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Relative Frequency Histogram

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

Inspection Time (sec)

Rela

tive F

req

uen

cy (

%) Regular

InspectionsPrimary Inspections Truncates at 63 sec

Primary Inspections Truncated at 90 sec

Mean 34 30 32Median 23 23 23Mode 18 63 18Standard Deviation 31 19 245th Percentile 10 10 1095th Percentile 88 63 88% Referred to Secondary 2 13-15 5-7

Option #2: Large variation in primary inspection times for non-SENTRI crossers was observed, 1-249 sec: What if we truncated at 90 or 63 seconds and send more to secondary?

Page 12: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Option #2: Truncate Primary Inspections

Truncating at 63 sec allows for 35% high attention inspections rather than 21% if mean of 34 sec is maintained

Truncated high-attention mean is 51 sec 7 times more secondary inspections

– Space may be there but staffing is less clear

Page 13: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Option #3: Expanding SENTRI-Shifting crossers to the SENTRI program allows more time for inspecting the remaining non-SENTRI crossers.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Peak Hour SENTRI Crossers

TN

Page 14: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Option #3: Expand SENTRI

Doubling or tripling the program is necessary to allow for substantial increases in the number of “high attention” inspections

Page 15: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Level of overcapacity required to permit longer inspection times.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75

Fractional Capacity at Peak Hour

Av

era

ge

In

sp

ec

tio

n T

ime

in

No

n-

SE

NT

RI

La

ne

, s

25% Shifted to SENTRI

50% Shifted to SENTRI

Current

Current Conditions

Inspection time of 70

Inspection time of 51

Page 16: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

Policy Implications

About 60% of crossers cross weekly or more frequently (Howard 2005)

We would need almost all of these people enrolled in SENTRI to allow “high attention” inspections for most non-SENTRI crossers

Not likely at $400/year

Page 17: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

CONCLUSIONS

Current inspections appear to be largely cursory, providing little time for a large fraction of entering vehicles.

No single alternative solves the problem Alternatives can be implemented incrementally and

should incrementally improve the situation in primary.– Divert more problematic cases to secondary inspections – Increasing the use of the SENTRI program.

Page 18: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE WORK

Impact on secondary not considered Queue formation and dissipation not

considered – Capacity assuming queue is present

Impact on region-wide traffic flows not investigated

Novel technologies may provide other alternatives to consider

Page 19: TRADEOFFS BETWEEN SECURITY AND INSPECTION CAPACITY: POLICY OPTIONS FOR LAND BORDER PORTS OF ENTRY Hilma Villegas Patrick L. Gurian, Josiah McC. Heyman,

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

NSF supplemental funding for undergraduate research

Yi-Chang Chiu, Thomas Fullerton, Cheryl Howard, and Jorge Villalobos shared data and assisted with the study