trade arrangements and opportunities in sadc · to china and india. japan a long-standing important...
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12 June 2008 • Park Hyatt • Johannesburg, South Africa
Trade Arrangements and Opportunities in SADC
Peter DraperTrade Project Head
South African Institute of International Affairs
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
Overview
• Review of Broad Trade Patterns
• Review of Trade Arrangements
• Focus on SADC EPA
• Concluding Remarks
Caveat: WTO not covered
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SADC Trade Priorities: Imports
SADC IMPORTS BY REGION, 2006
Other, 0.7%Oceania, 2.0%
Americas, 10.5%
Africa, 16.0%
Europe, 32.1%
Asia, 38.6%
SADC IMPORTS BY TRADE BLOC, 2006
EU, 28.6%
SADC, 12.9%
OTHER, 45.6%
COMESA, 2.8%MERCOSUR, 2.8%
NAFTA, 7.3%
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Asia’s Share of SADC Imports Exceeds Europe
SADC Import Shares, 2000 and 2006
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45%
Asia Europe Africa Americas Oceania Other
2000 2006
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SADC Trade Priorities: ExportsSADC EXPORTS BY REGION, 2006
Africa, 16.0%
Asia, 22.6%
Europe, 39.4%
Oceania, 1.9%
Rest of world, 9.3%
Americas, 10.6%
SADC EXPORTS BY TRADE BLOC, 2006
EU, 30.1%
SADC, 12.0%
OTHER, 40.9%
MERCOSUR, 0.7%
COMESA, 6.8%
NAFTA, 9.6%
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Asia Rising Again, But Europe Still Dominates
SADC Export Shares, 2000 and 2006
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5%
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15%
20%
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Europe Asia Africa Americas Rest of world Oceania
2000 2006
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Stylised Facts (1)
• Europe remains most important export partner (by far)
• South Africa dominates SADC exports to and imports from third parties (by far)
• Asia now most important import source (Recent shift due to China and India. Japan a long-standing important trade partner)
• Africa incrementally more important (i.e. increased intra-Africa trade)
• Americas important but declining slightly, like Europe
• EU biggest single trade-bloc partner
• Intra-SADC trade bigger than SADC-NAFTA trade, and growing
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SADC Exports to the EU
SADC exports to EU, 2006
Machinery, 13.1%
Precious metals and stones, 31.5%
Other, 24.1%
Transport equipment, 6.1%
Mineral products, 12.4%
Metal products, 12.7%
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SADC Exports to NAFTA
SADC exports to NAFTA, 2006
Metal Products, 18.9%
Precious metals and stones, 34.6%
Other, 20.9%
Machinery, 6.8%
Chemical products, 8.6%
Transport equipment, 10.2%
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SADC Exports to China
SADC exports to China, 2006
Metal Products, 33.6%
Mineral Products, 49.4%
Other, 8.4%Machinery, 2.0%
Textile products, 2.9%
Chemical products, 3.7%
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SADC Exports to India
SADC exports to India, 2006
Metal Products, 20.8%
Chemical products, 24.6%
Other, 24.2%
Vegetable products, 8.2%
Machinery, 8.9%
Mineral Products, 13.4%
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Stylised Facts (2)• Pattern of SADC exports to all major regions/blocs similar• Main broad product categories
– Metals (precious and base) and metal products– Mineral products– Chemical products– Machinery– Transport equipment– Textiles (to China)– Vegetable products (to India)
• Since South Africa dominates SADC’s external and internal trade, these reflect mainly South Africa’s export strengths
• Agricultural commodities relatively more important for other SADC members
• Niche agricultural products important for South Africa• Clothing and some other light manufactures very important for certain
SADC countries, such as Lesotho
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SADC Imports from the EU
SADC imports from EU, 2006
Transport equipment, 17.3%
Machinery, 35.3%
Other, 22.9%
Metal Products, 4.5%
Commodities not elsewhere specified,
9.7%
Chemical products, 10.3%
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SADC Imports from NAFTA
SADC imports from NAFTA, 2006
Transport equipment, 15.9%
Machinery, 36.0%
Other, 23.6%
Commodities not elsewhere specified,
4.0%
Precision instruments, 7.9%
Chemical products, 12.6%
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SADC Imports from China
SADC imports from China, 2006
Textile products, 15.9%
Machinery, 38.0%
Other, 25.4%
Footwear, headgear, 6.3%
Furniture, toys, 6.7%
Metal Products, 7.6%
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SADC Imports from India
SADC imports from India, 2006
Transport equipment, 13.2%
Mineral products, 24.4%
Other, 30.2%
Metal Products, 10.0%
Machinery, 10.2%Chemical products,
12.1%
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Intra-SADC Imports
Intra-SADC imports, 2006
Machinery, 15.2%
Mineral products, 17.6%
Other, 35.5%
Chemical products, 8.3%
Transport equipment, 10.4%
Metal products, 12.9%
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Stylised Facts (3)• Pattern of SADC imports from all major regions/blocs also similar
• Main broad product categories:– Machinery– Transport equipment– Precision equipment– Chemical products– Metal products (from EU, China, India)– Mineral products (from India)– Light manufactures, such as furniture, toys, footwear, apparel (from China)
• Intra-SADC imports also dominated by machinery, transport equipment, metals, etc—probably reflecting SA strengths
• China increasingly replacing EU and US for high tech imports, especially IT products
• Light manufactures from China and India causing competitive pressure in all SADC economies
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Trade Agreements In Place (1)
• SADC FTA
– Goods only:• 85% liberalisation by 2008
• Full liberalisation by 2012
• Asymmetric liberalisation: SACU already almost 100% open to SADC imports
– Services under consideration
– Many other relevant protocols, e.g. Finance and investment, but implementation is patchy
Intra-SADC trade is relatively small
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Does Africa Have a Basis for Formal Regional Economic Integration?
True extent of cross-border trade?
Source: The Economist
Host of problems to confront, especially supply-side agenda and weak institutions.
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Trade Agreements In Place (2)
• SA-EU Trade, Development, and Cooperation Agreement
– De facto inclusion of BLNS (except imports via Walvis bay)
– Goods coverage only
– Asymmetric liberalisation (EU opens faster, deeper)
– SA (and therefore the BLNS) will be fully open to the EU by 2012
SA/SACU – EU trade is substantial, and this arrangement may be expanded
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Preference Schemes• EU: Everything but Arms (EBA)
– Duty-free quota-free (DFQF) access to EU market for all LDCs– In SADC Angola, DRC, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia can
utilise this scheme
• US: African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)– Offers preferential access to US (NAFTA) market(s) for eligible African countries, on
most products– All in SADC but Zimbabwe are eligible
• China: Preferential access to Chinese market for LDCs– Limited product coverage– Not limited to African LDCs
• Less known about recent Indian offer except it applies to all LDCs (i.e. not just African)
• Literature considers AGOA more beneficial (better-designed) than EBA (especially rules of origin)
• Chinese offer will be of limited value, but scheme well-designed to meet African LDC export profiles
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Trade Agreements Under Negotiation• SACU-Mercosur
– Limited product coverage, small preferences offered by both sides
– Not much trade will be created– Existing trade relatively small and confined to SA– Political symbolism dominates
• SACU-India– Likely to be similar to Mercosur deal– A case of missed opportunities, especially in services?– Existing trade dominated by SA
• Underpinning both is the IBSA initiative
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The Interim EPA (1)
• Economic Partnership Agreements with the EU
– Most important current negotiation outside the WTO
– Highly controversial, especially in SACU
• The SADC EPA group contains only 7 of 14 SADC countries: SACU plus Angola, and Mozambique
• Other SADC member states participated in the ESA group, except Tanzania (EAC) and DRC (CEMAC)
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The Interim EPA (2)
• In the SADC EPA group:
– Angola, Mozambique and Lesotho have EU market access secured under EBA
• Yet Mozambique and Lesotho (LDCs) initialled the text
– South Africa has TDCA with EU; this de facto includes BLNS on imports from EU, but BLNS exports to EU not covered by TDCA
– Thus Botswana, Namibia and Swaziland need the EPA to maintain access enjoyed under the preceding arrangement, known as the Cotonou Partnership Agreement
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The Interim EPA (3)
• TDCA is comprehensive, so for SACU the goods chapter of SADC EPA not difficult to work out
– But there have been many complications
• For Mozambique and Angola (if it signs the concluded text), there will be substantial market opening to EU imports
• Liberalisation phased in over a long time period (in stages until 2018)
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SACU Tariffs and SA Imports
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t >= 40%30% <= t <40%
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% of total lines % of total imports
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EPA Implications• At the end the EU will have the best access to SADC of all
external (non-SADC) trade partners– Is this wise?
• New generation issues highly contentious—SA will need to make tough decisions
• Large question marks over SADC integration:– Half of SADC’s members are in other EPA negotiating groups
– What future for the mooted SADC customs union?
– SACU may split
• These ructions are matched elsewhere:– COMESA deeply split
– CEMAC too
– EAC the most cohesive
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Implications of Other Arrangements• AGOA very important, but a unilateral measure
– What happens if Congress changes its mind?
– What implications does the McDermott bill (duty free quota free market access for LDCs) hold?
• EBA needs to be improved for LDCs, especially in rules of origin– EPAs may provide an opportunity for this
• SADC FTA almost fully in place—comprehensive, but politically sensitive, and some members have not met implementation targets (e.g. Zim)
• SACU-Mercosur and SACU-India lack ambition
• SACU-China?
• SACU-US?
12 June 2008 • Park Hyatt • Johannesburg, South Africa
Thank You!Peter Draper
Trade Project HeadSouth African Institute of International Affairs