Tracking Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific During

El Nino

Andy ChanEnvironmental and Water Resources

EngineeringUniversity of Texas at Austinwebspace.utexas.edu/zimmeau/www/gis

EAST ASIA

China

Vietnam

North Korea

SouthKorea

Japan

Taiwan

ThePhilippines

Macau

Data Source

• Joint Typhoon Warning Centerhttp://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/wpindex.html

• NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Dr. Johnny Chan’s Observation

Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Nino and La Nina events. J. Climate,

13, 2960-2972

Determining El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Years

Year Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov ENL

1988 0.8 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 L

1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 N

1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N

1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 E

1992 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N

1993 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2  

1994 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 E

1995 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 L

1996 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N

1997 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 E

1998 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 L

1999 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 L

2000 -1.6 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 L

2001 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N

2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 E

2003 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5  

2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 E

Raw Data

Convert Points to Polygon

http://www.xtoolspro.com/tools.html

POINTS AND POLYLINE

THE GRID

Neutral Years

El Nino Years

La Nina Years

Difference between El Nino and Neutral Years

Difference between La Nina and Neutral Years

Conclusion

El Nino La Nina

South China Sea

Below Normal

Above Normal

East Asia (Japan)

Above Normal

Below Normal

Matched with the observations in Dr. Chan’s paper.

Thank you.Questions?