© OECD/IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2016

Tracking progress of renewable energy uptake

Dr. Ute CollierRenewable Energy Division

7th International Forum on energy for sustainable developmentBaku, 20 Oct 2016

© OECD/IEA 2016

Key IEA tracking publications

© OECD/IEA 2016

Good progress on renewable power

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Total renewable power generation by regionAccelerated case

Rest of Non-OECD

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Share of renewable generation

Share of renewable generation2025

Historical Forecast Targets

Renewable power capacity grew at its fastest pace in 2015 but further action is needed to put power on track with the 2DS target.

© OECD/IEA 2016

Tracking renewable power investment

Renewables capacity additions in 2015 will generate more electricity per year than the UK; Wind capacity surged by 35% on improved economics & record offshore growth

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Global renewable power investment Expected generation from investment

© OECD/IEA 2016

But it’s not just about power

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Heat accounts for 54% of global energy consumption but data is poor. Need to put more emphasis on tracking heat.

Solar thermal by region

© OECD/IEA 2016

Renewables - data availability and gaps

Generally good data for power renewables in EU/North America but less so for rest of UNECE Heat data very poor – very few countries

have good data on heat demand and on renewables deployment Biofuels data – generally good where there is

production (& mandates)

© OECD/IEA 2015

IEA Clean Energy Technology Assessment study

Policy paper(June 2015)

Methodology paper (June 2016)

Pilot studies: Belarus, Morocco & Kazakhstan

(June - July 2016)

© OECD/IEA 2015

The Clean Energy Technology Assessment Methodology (CETAM)

3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation

1. Prioritisation 3. Monitoring2. Metric formulation

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Priority resources Priority RETs

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RET penetration metrics

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trends

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Priority energy using

sectorsPriority EETs

Subsector energy use indicators

EET penetration

metrics

EET penetration levels and

trends

Priority ratings for

EETs

EET enabling environment

A 3-step process:

© OECD/IEA 2016

Belarus case study

Monitoring progress towards targets • Attainable targets

Technology neutral 9% of total energy supply from renewables by 2035; 2.6 TWh electricity generation from renewables generation by 2035;

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Tracking progress toward renewable electricity capacity and generation targets, 2015-35

© OECD/IEA 2015

Overall outcomes and lessons learned

CETAM: Ready to be applied elsewhere Variation across the pilot countries:

• Data quality• Ambition to deploy clean energy technologies• Some stronger on EE (e.g. Belarus) other on RE (Morocco)

Energy efficiency technologies: Much harder to measure and monitor than renewables – data from audits, etc is key.

Even where it is difficult to apply, using CETAM can help identify data collection gaps.

© OECD/IEA 2016

EU4Energy programme framework

IEA for EU4Energy Data

IEA for EU4Energy WebPortal

IEA for EU4Energy Policy

EU4Energy Visibility and

Communication

EnCS and ECS for EU4Energy Technical

Assistance for Eastern Partnership

Enhancing energy data and evidence-based policy making

Putting policy recommendations

into action

Increasing visibility in the region

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine Uzbekistan

© OECD/IEA 2016

IEA for EU4Energy Programme Aims

EU4Energy Programme aims at assisting participating countries in:

Developing robust energy policies and measures: • Transition from policy taking to policy making • Developing mechanisms for tracking progress for implementation• Promote visibility and data transparency

Enhance energy security options by:• Maximising use of indigenous sources of energy including energy

efficiency gains potential • Encouraging energy related investments by fostering solid policy base• Promoting energy related research, development and deployment

(RD&D)