tracking consumer sentiment on the impact of covid-19 … · 31 27 29 96 95 97 98 96 95 92 95 95 95...

Tracking Consumer Sentiment on the Impact of COVID-19

Weekly Update – 21st August 2020

Travel & Mobility, Leisure & Hospitality, Personal Finances

IntroductionAs with every other major crisis, when the historians come to write about the COVID-19 period,

some public figures will be deemed to have had ‘a good war’ (with medals to show for it), while

others may have irreparably tarnished reputations and be cast into the wilderness.

Does the same hold true for brands? Every sector, of course, has faced a slightly different set of

circumstances and has had to respond in appropriate ways to the crisis. In the travel sector in

particular, many boards have been faced with unenviable decisions – particularly in respect of

human capital – and are now being tried in the court of public opinion.

What is clear from our social media analytics (reported in this document) is just how divergent

consumer reaction has been to the behaviour of brands – even within individual sectors.

This is true not only for big policy calls, but also for marketing communications. Our research

this week shows that while adverts that highlight the crisis have some resonance with the most

COVID concerned segments, they also risk alienating much of the population – especially those

who are most likely to be re-engaging with the economy. There is a desire for normality and a

wariness of brands who look as though they may be ‘virtue signaling’. Matt CostinManaging Director, BVA BDRC

Suzy HassanManaging Director, Alligator Digital

So here we are then. Twenty-one eventful weeks after we started, this is the final edition of

our weekly tracking reports in their current format.

This is certainly not ‘goodbye’ – we’re just taking a short period of time out to listen to

feedback (yes, we do try to practice what we preach!), and plan an updated format for

tracking the behaviour and attitudes of consumers and businesses, as we enter the next

chapter for a recovering UK economy.

For now, thank you so much for engaging with our analysis during this period. Even though

the headlines have often been sobering, we hope you’ve enjoyed reading the reports as

much as we’ve enjoyed putting them together!

With our very best wishes,

Executive Summary

National mood and sentiment picks up

After the most negative outlook recorded since April in last week's report, there is a slightimprovement in overall mood and sentiment this time. Confidence in the UK government’shandling of the crisis recovers somewhat – but 85% of the population considers a 2nd waveand lockdown to be a likely scenario.

Bleak outlook for outbound travel, as lead-times lengthen again in face of quarantine

Despite being in peak summer holiday season, we estimate that the incidence of those takingoverseas holidays among our ‘Travel Activist’ sample is just 7% of that recorded in Q1. Withanticipated lead times to next flight and international holiday lengthening for the secondconsecutive week and no sign of an end to the uncertainty around quarantine rules, theoutlook for international travel continues to be bleak. Among those who are planning to go onan overseas holiday, the hierarchy of holiday type preferences remains largely unchanged, withSpain top of the destination charts and beaches still top of the menu.

Restaurants, pubs and shopping malls continue to see growth in re-engagement

For pubs, shopping malls and restaurants in particular, we continue to see week-on-weekincreases in the incidence of participation – the latter helped, it seems, by the Eat Out to HelpOut scheme. Meanwhile, the reduction in VAT would also appear to have had an impact onuptake of paid-for accommodation, though not to the same extent as EOTHO: a case for ”StayAway to Save the Day” perhaps?

Outdoor scenic destinations lead our recovery index - but have flat-lined since July

A combination of the good mid-summer weather, avoidance / impossibility of internationalholidays, as well as an innate desire for space and clean air post-lockdown, contributed tooutdoor scenic areas racing ahead in terms of the extent of recovery in visitors / customers.In August, however, recovery in participation levels has flat-lined, with no further increase inthe incidence of visitors among our ‘Travel Activist’ sample.

Advertising: consumers show preference for ‘normality’ and an absence of virtue signalling

When it comes to marcoms strategy, this week’s report underlines the importance of pitchingthe right message to each audience. At an aggregate national-level, there is a sense that adsshould focus more on a return to normality than on COVID-related safety and wellbeingmessages – though these COVID-related themes continue to resonate for those in the ‘COVIDConcerned’ attitudinal segment. In general, consumers are also cynical about brandspublicising their good deeds during the crisis, with ‘Life Goes On’ and ‘Pragmatic PolicySupporters’ (also the segments most likely to be re-engaging with the economy) particularlylikely to be turned off by virtue signalling from brands.

Consumers are feeling better about their finances than at the start of the crisis

Notwithstanding the growing incidence of redundancies, pay cuts and reduced-time contracts,consumers are typically feeling somewhat better about their personal finances than at the verystart of the crisis. 37% now describe themselves as ‘alright’ and a further 9% as ‘better off thanbefore (the crisis)’ – on a combined basis, this is up 10 points since early April. For historicalcontext, when BDRC asked the same questions during the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis,only 27% described themselves as ‘alright’ or ’better off’.

Contents

Page No.

The mood of the nation 5

Communicating to our COVID attitudinal segments 11

Tracking recovery across key segments 18

Leisure 24

Transport 59

Personal & business finances 71

Appendix 78

The mood of the nation

We are somewhat less pessimistic than last week, but the plurality of UK adults fear that the worst is still to come and only 14% believe the worst has passed.

Q7: Regarding the situation of Coronavirus in the UK and the way it is going to change in the coming month, which of the following best describes your opinion? (%)

86 81

76

61

39 30

25

36

33 32

36 31 33

35

41 42 43 39

40

51 46

14 14 18

29

44 45 43 45 43 39 38 38 37 38

38 40 37 38

44

37 40

-5 6

10

18 25

33

19 24

29 27

31 30 27 21

18 20 23

16 12 14

23-24 M

ar

30-31 M

ar

6-7 Apr

14-15 Apr

20-22 Apr

27-28 Apr

4-5 May

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 Aug

11-13 Aug

The worst is still to come Things are going to stay the same

The worst has passed

58%60%

72%67%

48%51%

61%55%

33%29%

44%42%

30%30%34%36%

32%33%

24%30%

38%42%

32%37%

37%51%

43%43%

41%46%

46%44%

10%7%4%3%

13%7%7%8%

30%20%

13%15%

30%24%19%20%

Anxious Appreciator Hermits + COVID Impacted

COVID Cautious

Pragmatic Policy Supporters

Life Goes On

W18

W19

W20

W21

W18

W19

W20

W21

W18

W19

W20

W21

W18

W19

W20

W21

2 3 2 1 2 13 16 13 11 13

51 51 53

48 50

33 30 32 40 35

Very likely Fairly likely Not very likely Very unlikely

Fears of a 2nd wave / lockdown recede slightly this week, but 85% still consider it likely.

There has even been a increase in the “Life Goes On” segment – nearly three quarters of this most optimistic of groups now think it is likely to happen

Perceived likelihood of a second wave of coronavirus that will lead to a new lockdown

14 – 17 July 2020

21– 23 July 2020

All UK Adults: Week-on-week

85% NET

Likely

15%NET

Unlikely

28– 30 July 2020

NET LikelyNET Unlikely

COVID Concerned

COVID Cautious


Life Goes On

45324

58555

101614119

323331

2729

9695979896

9592959595

9084868991

686769

7371

14-17 July21-23 July28-30 July4-6 August

11-13 August


11-13 August


11-13 August

14-17 July21-23 July28-30 july4-6 August

11-13 August

Q69: How likely or unlikely do you think it is that the UK will experience a second wave of coronavirus that will lead to a new lockdown?

4– 6 Aug 2020

11-13Aug 2020

At the start of tracking in April, all but a ‘pessimistic’ 14% expected normality by year end. Now, all but an ‘optimistic’ 18% fear that normality will come in 2021 or later.

Q Given what you know today when do you think life will return to something close to normal?

100 98 100 99 98 96 9692

98 98 98 96 97 96 96 96 95 96 95

8681

7369

5955 54

51 5249

41 3935

26 2428

2215

18

69 66

5346

3533 32 29 29

2319 17 15 11 9 9 6 3 4

48 44

3530

20 19 16 14 169 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 10

100

6-7 Apr

14-15 Apr

20-22 Apr

27-28 Apr

4-5 May

11-12 May

19-22 May

26-29 May

2-4 Jun

9-11 Jun

16-18 Jun

23 - 25 Ju

n

30 Jun-2 Ju

ly

7-9 July

14-17 July

21-23 July

28-30 July

4-6 Aug

11-13 Aug

By September 2020

During 2020

Never

Aug 2020Sept 2020

Dec 2020

2021 or Later It is now more or less the inverse of how it started. In early April, 86% expected normality by year-end. In early August, 85% think it’ll be 2021, later or never!

Confidence in the UK government’s handling of the crisis recovers slightly this week. A narrow majority of adults, however, are ‘not confident’.

Q6: Would you say that you are completely confident, somewhat confident, not really confident, not at all confident regarding how the British government is handling the crisis? (%)

Q6: Would you say that you are completely confident, somewhat confident, not really confident, not at all confident regarding how the British government is handling the crisis? (%)

Don’t knowNET Not confidentNET Confident

56

6763 64 61 63 66

47

53

48 48 47

50 51 50 49 49 51

4844 47

42

3137 35

38 3633

52

46

51 51 52

4947 48 49 50

47

5155

51

2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2

23-24March

30-31March

6-7April

14-15April

20-22April

27-28April

4-5May

11-12May

19-22May

26-29May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2July

7-9July

14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6Aug

11-13Aug

% of each party’s voters at last general election that are confident in the UK Government’s handling of the crisis

1 Month change in brackets(comparing to 14th – 17th July)

72% (+6)

30% (-4)

29% (-2)

Since last month, opinions on the government’s handling of the crisis have become even more entrenched along voting lines, with Conservative voters becomingmore positive, and Labour and Liberal Dem voters becoming even less confident.

Since late-April, our average national mood has hovered between 6.6 and 6.7 on a 10 point scale – in line with other indicators, it picks up slightly this week.

Q5: How would you rate, between 0 and 10, your mood today? (%)

14

27

42

17

9-10 ratings 7-8 ratings

5-6 ratings 0-4 ratings

59% 7-10 ratings

11 Aug– 13 Aug 2020

Average mood

6.7

41%0-6 ratings

11 Aug– 13 Aug 2020

6 6.1 6.16.5 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.7

23-24 M

arch

30-31 M

arch

6-7 April

14-15 April

20-22 April

27-28 April

4-5 May

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2 Ju

ly

7 July

– 9 July

14 July

- 17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 Aug

11-13 Aug

Average mood week-on-week(UK Adults)

Communicating to our COVID attitudinal segments

Introducing our COVID-19 Consumer Segments

Anxious Appreciator Hermits COVID Impacted COVID Cautious Pragmatic Policy Supporters Life Goes On

Anxious about the virus, the government's handling of the situation and society's behaviour, but have valued the time at home. As such, they are likely to take longer to resume 'normal' behaviour.

This segment is suffering financially and is also concerned about the ongoing health implications of the virus and the potential impact of the easing of lockdown. They give the lowest mood ratings of all the segments.

While they are less concerned about the impact of the pandemic on themselves, this segment fears that we may not yet be past the worst and would prefer a longer lockdown. They are likely to be cautious in their own post-lockdown behaviour.

Concerned about the impact of COVID-19, but trusting and supportive of the government's policies and most believe the worst is behind us.

Aching for lockdown to be lifted, this segment is not worried about the risks associated with COVID-19 and are supportive of lockdown lifting in order to protect the economy and get back to living their lives.

1014

129

15

3133

3132

32

2021

2120

20

3832

3739

33

11-13 August

4-6 August

28-30 July

21-23 July

30 June - 2 July

COVID Concerned Life Goes OnPragmatic Policy

SupportersCOVID Cautious

More information about what a segmentation is, go to the Appendix

COVID Concerned

Media preferences correlate with attitudes to COVID-19.

Q78 - In a typical week, approximately how many hours do you spend…? « = top segment

49%

34%

29%

28%

25%

23%

13%

6%

TV

Social media

SVoD

Other websites

Radio

BVoD

Newspapers

Magazines

Consumed over 6 hours per week

All adults

43%

36%

34%

30%

28%

27%

23%

15%

TV

Social media

SVoD

Other websites

Radio

BVoD

Newspapers

Magazines

65%

27%

23%

22%

21%

16%

5%

2%

TV

Social media

SVoD

Other websites

Radio

BVoD

Newspapers

Magazines

48%

35%

27%

26%

22%

20%

9%

2%

TV

Social media

Other websites

SVoD

Radio

BVoD

Newspapers

Magazines

48%

36%

34%

31%

31%

29%

10%

1%

TV

Social media

SVoD

BVoD

Other websites

Radio

Newspapers

Magazines

COVID Concerned

Life Goes On Pragmatic Policy Supporters

COVID Cautious

«

«

«

«

«

«

Base: 552

86

107

116

109

118

117

172

233

97

103

98

89

89

89

71

32

131

80

79

80

86

68

35

23

97

105

117

135

110

118

75

17

Print consumers are more likely to fall into the Life Goes On segment, whilst heavier TV consumers are more likely to be Pragmatic Policy supporters.

q79- On the scale below please indicate to what extent your opinion lies closer to the statements on the left or those on the right. The more firmly you agree with one statement the further towards that statement you should score. If you agree with both equally, score in the middle. « = top segment

13%

9%

7%

4%

7%

24%

26%

25%

18%

23%

33%

29%

20%

29%

27%

16%

26%

38%

38%

32%

14%

9%

10%

11%

11%

Strong (4-5) Slight (1-3) Neutral Slight (1-3) Strong (4-5)

“Advertising currently should primarily

highlight the Covid 19 crisis where appropriate and focus on safety and

wellbeing messages”

«

Base: 1,001 (379, 203, 310, 109)

Ads that highlight the crisis risk alienating Life Goes On segment.

COVID Concerned

Life Goes On


COVID Cautious

ALL ADULTS

«

“Advertising currently should primarily focus on things returning back to normal and not make any reference to Covid 19”

The sense that ads should focus more on a return to normality prevails amongst all but the cautious Covid Concerned segment.


27%

25%

24%

25%

32%

42%

30%

23%

25%

30%

30%

28%

28%

27%

50%

50%

46%

45%

41%

30%

43%

NET agree Neutral NET agree

65+

ALL ADULTS

Base: 1,001 (216, 116, 158, 156, 198, 157)

Under 35s have the strongest desire for normality in advertising.

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

16-24

“Advertising currently should primarily

highlight the Covid 19 crisis where appropriate and focus on safety and

wellbeing messages”

“Advertising currently should primarily focus on things returning back to normal and not make any reference to Covid 19”

Primarily it’s the over 65s that feel advertising should focus on safety and wellbeing messages.


6%

7%

7%

3%

5%

28%

25%

23%

18%

22%

31%

32%

28%

33%

31%

21%

28%

33%

38%

32%

14%

8%

8%

7%

8%

Strong (4-5) Slight (1-3) Neutral Slight (1-3) Strong (4-5)

«

“Adverts that publicise a brand

doing good deeds during the crisis are more effective than

regular ads”

“Adverts that publicise a brand doing good deeds during the crisis are cynical, opportunistic and less effective”

People tend to be cynical about brands ‘virtue signalling’.

COVID Concerned

Life Goes On


COVID Cautious

ALL ADULTS

Base: 1,001 (379, 203, 310, 109)

Publicising good deeds could prove effective for cautious segments, but is likely to be a turn-off for Life Goes On segment.

“Adverts that publicise a brand

doing good deeds during the crisis are more effective than

regular ads”

“Adverts that publicise a brand doing good deeds during the crisis are cynical, opportunistic and less effective”


27%

24%

22%

21%

30%

39%

28%

28%

23%

33%

36%

34%

34%

31%

45%

53%

45%

43%

36%

27%

41%

NET agree Neutral NET agree

65+

ALL ADULTS

Under 45s are most likely to be cynical about ads publicising good deeds.

55-64

45-54

35-44

25-34

16-24

Base: 1,001 (216, 116, 158, 156, 198, 157)

Again it’s 65+ age groups who are more likely to find good deed messaging effective.

Tracking recovery across key segments

Outdoor parks / scenic areas galloped into an early lead in the recovery stakes –but have flat-lined in August. Restaurants, pubs and retail continue to record momentum in participation recovery.

Restaurant (36%)

Pub (32%)

Shopping (31%)

UK Holiday (14%)

Overseas holiday (2%)

Paid-for accommodation (16%)

Bus (28%)

Train (17%)

Plane (11%)

Theme Park (4%)

Zoo (4%)

Aquarium (2%)

Museum/Gallery (4%)

Outdoor Park / Scenic Area (43%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

Week

Cum

ulat

ive

Part

icip

atio

n si

nce

re-o

peni

ng (%

)

The cumulative percentage of participation in restaurant dining and pub visits increased noticeably in the first week of August UK Holiday and paid-for

accommodation seem to be tracking each other. Overseas holiday participation is sluggish

Although flatter in the last week, buses and trains have seen significant increases throughout tracking. Air travel ticked up slowly in late July, but may have been stymied by the imposition (or the threat) of quarantine requirements

Indoor-based attractions just do not seem to be able to gain any real traction. Outdoor parks/scenic areas seem to have plateaued.

Data filtered on Travel Activists – see appendix for details

Only zoos, theme parks, UK holidays and outdoor parks have reached 50% of their Q1 participation levels. Despite continued improvement and support through EOTHO, restaurants and pubs remain in the low to mid 40s.

Restaurant 42% (36%/85%)

Pub 45% (32%/70%)

Shopping 41% (32%/76%)

UK Holiday 56% (14%/25%)

Overseas holiday 7% (2%/28%)

Paid-for accommodation 36% (16%/45%)

Bus 43% (28%/65%)

Train 29% (17%/59%)

Plane 38% (11%/29%)

Theme Park 50% (4%/8%)

Zoo 56% (4%/9%)

Aquarium 33% (2%/6%)

Museum/Gallery 12% (4%/33%)

Outdoor Park / Scenic Area 88% (43%/49%)

0%

50%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Recovery Index (100% = Q1 level)

Q1

Part

icip

atio

n %

7-9

July

14-1

7 Ju

ly

21-2

3 Ju

ly

28-3

0 Ju

ly

4-6

Augu

st

11-1

3 Au

gust

Despite Eat Out To Help Out, restaurants and pubs remain in the low to mid forties. Shopping seems to have stalled.

The reduction in VAT would seem to have had an impact on uptake of paid-for accommodation, albeit not to the same extent as EOTHO. Perhaps “Stay Away to Save the Day” is called-for on top of the VAT reduction, an altogether less sexy proposition.

Growth in train usage has ground to a halt, while buses surge on.

The challenge for museums and galleries is different. With a large proportion of these free to enter, it could be either fears for safety or reluctance to use public transport for access that is suppressing recovery

Data filtered on Travel Activists – see appendix for details

‘Life Goes On’ and ‘Pragmatic Policy Supporters’ remain ahead of the curve in terms of re-engagement with key leisure segments – though progress is evident across all segments.

q1a- And when exactly was the last time you did the following activity/activities

Segment (size) COVID Concerned(14%)

COVID Cautious (33%)

Pragmatic Policy Supporters (21%)

Life Goes On (32%)

Went to a restaurant 46% 42% 43% 33%

Went to a pub 36% 33% 33% 27%

Went to a shopping mall/ shopping trip 43% 35% 37% 25%

Since June 2020

Jan-Mar 2020

Went to a restaurant

Went to a pub

Went to a shopping mall/shopping trip

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

124

69

14

1 46

9 1824

27 11

1419

24

49

1114

21 27

134

81011

26

810

1418

27

912

1721

310

1516

19 23

7 111112

1517

6 121416

1819

81515

212626

71518

192121

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

While ‘COVID Concerned’ visits to pubs/ restaurants is still some way behind the other segments, they are now almost as likely now to go on shopping trips.

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug


The incidence of consumers taking UK holidays since June continues to grow, but still falls below that seen during the off-peak Q1 season. Unsurprisingly, we see limited movement in overseas holidays.




Life Goes On (32%)

Went on UK holiday 6% 7% 8% 8%

Went on overseas holiday 5% 8% 8% 7%

Stayed in paid for accommodation 14% 14% 13% 11%

Since June 2020

Jan-Mar 2020

Went on UK holiday

Went on an overseasholiday

Stayed in paid for accommodation

00

111

2

011

23

4

12334 6

12

33

46

000000

000

111

0000

11

01111

2

00

12

33

1233

46

12

44 6

6

12

34

67

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug

Travelled by bus

Travelled by train

Travelled by plane

We see a jump in use of public transport by the COVID Cautious this week, but limited movement for other segments – perhaps with fewer people going into work over the school summer holidays.




Life Goes On (32%)

Travelled by bus 30% 27% 24% 22%

Travelled by train 25% 24% 18% 20%

Travelled by plane 8% 10% 9% 9%

Since June 2020

Jan-Mar 2020


00000

1

1111

22

000

122

01

2222

244

577

24

66

710

1 366

78

3 677

89

511

1313

1414

510

111111

15

5910

131718

511

1313

1517

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

14-17 Jul21-23 Jul

7-9 Jul

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

28-30 Jul

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

4-6 Aug

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug

11-13 Aug

Leisure

27 25 26 27 29 32 28 2935

2937 34

2622

37 3743 41 42 43 42 41 41

37

48 4536 36

5256 56 55 56 58 55 54 51 49

59 5748 49

66 70 69 68 70 71 67 6761 60

69 6860 63

11-12

May

19-22

May

26-29

May

2-4 Ju

ne

9-11 J

une

16-18

June

23-25

June

30 Ju

ne-2

July

7-9 Ju

ly

14- 1

7 July

21-23

July

28-30

July

4-6 Augu

st

11-13

August

5% 8%

Week 1 Week 2

Market Recovery Tracking: Go on a day out to a visitor attractionTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Visited a visitor attraction since permitted

56%

0% 0% 1%11%

Jan-Mar Apr May Jun Jul

15%

NET Activity since permitted

The proportion who have already visited an attraction since being able to do so increased in the second week of August. Intentions to go before the end of the year remain steady, whileintentions in term of visiting an attraction by the end of April 2021 or later increase.

August 2020

13%

This week

Average time beforedoing activity

2.6

Average time sincethe activity last

done

6.221 22 21 21 22 23 272420

Q12. Given what you know today, when do you anticipate doing the following? Base allQ1a. And when exactly was the last time you did the following activity/activities?

When the activity will next be done

Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later By end of December 2020

By end of August 2020By end of September 2020Activity is permitted

Activity is not permitted%

NET participation since pandemic / activity permitted

26 23 21 26

1%

25

5.7

6.6 6.6

6.2 6.2

5.7

5.3

5.7

4.5 4.64.4

4.2

4.8 4.9

4.9

6.0 5.8

5.45.0

5.4 4.8 5.1

4.43.84.1

3.5

4.9

4.6

5.86.3 6.3

5.75.4

5.5

4.7 4.8 4.7

3.8 4 4.1

4.74.9

6.06.2

6.4

5.8

4.84.4

4.3

4.4

3.8

3.23.2 3.2

4.03.9

1

4

7

27-28

April

4-5 M

ay

11-12

May

2-4 Ju

ne

9-11 J

une

16-18

June

23-25

June

30 Ju

ne-2

July

7-9 Ju

ly

14-17

July

21-23

July

28-30

July

4-6 Augu

st

11-13

August

Visit a theme park

Visit an indoor play centre

Visit an aquarium

Visit a zoo

4.6 4.5

4.0

3.6

3.1

3.5

4.2

5.5

6.2

5.5

5.05.0

4.3

4.5

4.3

3.8

3.3

3.23.5

3.9

3.53.8

2.3

1.81.6 1.7

1.9

1.5 1.51.3

1.1 1.21.41

4

7

27-28

April

4-5 M

ay

11-12

May

2-4 Ju

ne

9-11 J

une

16-18

June

23-25

June

30 Ju

ne-2

July

7-9 Ju

ly

14-17

July

21-23

July

28-30

July

4-6 Ju

ly

Visit a historical house

Visit a museum/gallery

Go to a country park orscenic area

The lead time for most types of attractions continues to increase this week, with historic houses seeing the largest increase. Indoor play centres, however, see lead times drop as families are excited to see them begin to re-open.Average time before undertaking leisure activities

Mon

ths

11th MayEasing of lockdown

announcement: people allowed to spend unlimited time outdoors

10th JuneOutdoor

attractions such as zoos, safari parks allowed to reopen

on 15th June

4th July England’s museums

and galleries allowed to re-open, with

Scotland following on 15th July

Market Recovery Tracking: Visit a zooTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

q12bnew. And when do you anticipate next doing the following? Base allQ1a. And when exactly was the last time you did the following activity/activities?

8 913 15 16

1310

15 1310

7 5

1115

18 20 19 1915

19 2116

11 9

1922 24 26 28 26

2025 26

23

16 16

2833 34

37 37 37

2933 35

3027

19

11-12May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2

July

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

1% 3%

Week 1 Week 2

Visited a zoo since permitted

9%0% 0% 1% 4%


4%


August 2020

4%

This week


3.9


done

8.2






21 24 24 26 21 27 30 23 25 22

The intention to visit a zoo by the end of September continues to drop, falling from 11% to 9%. Intention to go by the end of April or later also continues to drop, falling from 27% to 19%,the lowest level recorded.

28

1%

31

August 2020

Market Recovery Tracking: Visit a theme parkTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Theme parks are another segment of the leisure industry impacted by second wave concerns: the proportion of Travel Activists having an interest in visiting but without a specifictimeframe in mind, continues to nudge upwards, while short term intentions for August decline for the 3rd consecutive week.


69 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 7

5 4

1215

11 12 14 139

1215

118 8

20 2116 18

22 2016 18

2116

12 14

3035

2831

36 34

2530

34

2624

16

11-12May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2

July

7-9July

14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

Visited a theme park since permitted

8%0% 0% 2%


4%


This week


4.9


done

8.6


Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later




18 14 21 23 17 16 18 18 21

1% 2%

Week 1 Week 2

20

By end of December 2020

22

2%

24

August 2020

Market Recovery Tracking: Visit a museum/galleryTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

With last week’s data reflecting a peak in consumer anxiety about a potential second wave, and an accompanying sharp drop in intention to visit a museum or gallery before end of 2020,this week there is a partial recovery. Nevertheless, intention to visit this side of 2021 remains lower than it was back in May.


16 15 14 14 15 14 16 1613 13

8 6

24 24 25 24 24 25 2421 23

2015 15

3639

35 36 35 34 34 33 34 33

2329

4751 51

47 49 47 4643 45 46

36 36

11-12May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2

July

7-9 July 14-17July

21- 23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

1% 2%

Week 1 Week 2

Visited a museum/gallery since permitted

33%

0% 0% 4%


4%


This week


3.9


done

7.7






31 25 25 28 29 29 34 31 25 30 34

4%

30

Market Recovery Tracking: Visit a small historic houseTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

In a similar trend to museums, intentions to visit a small historic house before the end of December recovered this week. However, reflecting continued caution in respect of indoorpublic spaces, the speed of participation recovery remains slow.


12 10 10 12 149

6 6

21 2118

21 23

1511 13

28 2825 27

3025

17

24

41 3936 38 40

3430 29

23-25 June 30 June-2July

7-9 July 14-17 July 21-23 July 28-30 July 4-6 August 11-13August

0% 2%

Week 1 Week 2

Visited a small historic house since permitted

17%

0% 0% 2%


3%


August 2020

This week


3.9


done

8.4



By end of August 2020By end of September 2020

28 30 31 25 23 28 35

2%

32

Activity is permitted



Market Recovery Tracking: Go to an outdoor park or scenic areaTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Outdoor parks and scenic areas recovered faster and to a greater extent than any other section of the economy we have tracked and remain ahead of everything else. That said, theincidence of visitors among our Travel Activist sample is no higher now than it was at the end of July, while forward intentions are on the decline as Autumn comes into sight.


6167 68

6561

6561 63

70

58 58

45

6873

7670

6772

66 6873

65 6458

7379 81

77 75 74 73 7478

70 6865

7783 84 82 82 80 78 80

84

76 76

69

11-12May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2

July

7 - 9July

14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

26% 26%

Week 1 Week 2

Went to an outdoor park or scenic area since permitted

49%

20% 19% 22%35%


43%


August 2020

This week


1.5


done

5.3






18 13 11 12 11 15 16 13 9

20% 21% 26%

16 18

43%

16

Market Recovery Tracking: Visit an indoor play centre To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

With indoor play centres permitted to re-open in England from the 15th August, intention to visit the attraction before the end of August, September and December sees a slight increasethis week. However, the growth is tentative (and only a partial recovery on last week) as the public wait to see how measures are put in place and hear feedback on others’ experiences.


6 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 64

13

912

108

10 9 9 9 107

4 5

1517

1513

1815

13 14 1513

9 10

20

2522 22

25 24

1921

24

18 17

13

11-12May

2-4June

9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30June-2

July

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

Visit indoor play centre since permitted


This week


4.6


done

8.4






10 11 15 10 11 15 10 12 13 12 15

1% 1%

Week 1 Week 2

1%

14

August 2020

Attraction visitors are looking for the usual visitor experience, with sensible health and safety precautions. Hand sanitiser, enhanced cleaning and enforced social distancing enabled by capacity caps are essential for all segments except ‘Life Goes On’.

Q35. Which, if any, of these conditions would need to be met before you personally would consider going to a visitor attraction immediately after the lockdown has been lifted?

Visitors

Visitors to wear face

masks

Visitor temperature

checks

Staff to wear face

masks

Daily staff health checks

Gov. certification

Plentiful hand

sanitizer

Enhanced cleaning

Enforced social

distancing

Social distancing measures

Reassuranceabout

sanitising

Controlled numbers in each area

Reducedadmissions numbers

Managementof

communal areas

Closure of communal

areas

Cashless payments

Exclusive opening for

small groups

Discounts and special

offers

Not until vaccine/ cure is found

I’m happy to visit

without changes

Staff Site Capacity Booking and payments

40% 35% 14% 7% 40% 37% 33% 31% 45% 41% 38% 37% 43% 39% 34% 12% 35% 9% 17%Overall

Conditions for leisure attractions to have in order to be considered

Visitors typically do NOT expect discounted entry, or require exclusive opening for small groups, and closure of communal areas could actually be a deterrent – visitors want access to the full offer.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

COVID Concerned COVID Cautious Pragmatic Policy Supporters Life Goes On

How have the leading leisure charities been spoken about on social media during the crisis?

54

60 48,049

35,008

135,270

82

Net Sentiment Passion Intensity Number of mentions

39

60

86

23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020

Overall, consumers engaging with social media have spoken about Kew, English Heritage and National Trust in positive terms during the crisis, with far more positive sentiment than negative.

For social analytics methodology and full set of scores for all brands tracked, please refer to the Appendix

National Trust: key themes on social media

Shares

Lockdown/Social distancing

Redundancies

Financial support

Countryside

Attractions

Canon Rawnsley, Crosthwaite, Founder

Admission, Bookings, Advance

Flowers

Volunteers

Newsletters

Coronavirus/Donations

Animals

Hashtag expert

The greatest number of follower / visitor counts for the National Trust come from the themes of social distancing, financial support and around the redundancies that they have recently announced. National Trust is associated with its green outdoor spaces in the countryside, and during lockdown it was clear social media users were keen to continue this conversation. Needless to say, NT has been hard hit and has been calling for donations and financial support. News around redundancies inevitably impact sentiment.

Kew Gardens: key themes on social media

Plants

Flower photography

Ecosystems/biodiversity

Research

Wedding

Social distancing

Flowers

Groups/Queens/Police

Temporary platforms

Stradivarious

US

Circulation

Flower photography dominates Kew’s social media activity along with weddings and temporary platforms. The fact that social distancing is slightly smaller topic area reflects the fact that it is less of an issue and that on social media it is the Kew experience that people are speaking about.

English Heritage: key themes on social media

Screenshots

National Cultural institutions

Summer Solstice

Community events

Mass Gatherings/Coronavirus

Countries/Culture/British

Plaques for women

18th Century/Victorians

National cultural institutions, mass gatherings / coronavirus and community events take up the largest part of English Heritage activity. The issue around mass gatherings / coronavirus suggests that there may be some contention on social media around this theme, so not all the posts are necessarily positive.

How have leading attraction portfolios been spoken about on social media?

56 54

21,766

201,303

63,951

724

6,020

14,044

55

98

-48

70

75

100

48

28

70

35Merlin*

HRP*

Net Sentiment Passion Intensity Number of mentions 23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020

*An aggregate NET sentiment based on the brands presented on this slide

84 100

Hampton Court Palace has a very high level of passion intensity along with a very positive net sentiment, possibly linked to hosting an open air cinema during the August heatwave.


6.66.8

5.9 6.05.8

5.3

4.74.4 4.2

3.9 3.9 3.8 43.6

5.3 5.55.8 5.7 5.9

5.4 5.3

4.6 4.5 4.43.9 3.8 3.8

3.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.4

5.2 5.1 5.35.6 5.4

5.1

4.6

4.0 3.9 3.83.3 3.4 3.4

2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1

6-7 Apr 14-15Apr

20-22Apr

27-28Apr

4-5 May 11-12May

19-22May

26-29May

2-4 June 9-11June

16-18June

23-25June

30 June-2 July

7-9 July 14-17July

21-23July

28-30July

4-6August

11-13August

Go on a UK holiday

Book a UK holiday

Plan a UK holiday

The lead time for planning and booking UK holidays continues to plateau this week, driven by some people having now taken their summer trip.

Average anticipated lead time before planning, booking or taking a holiday

Mon

ths

9th May14 day quarantineFirst mentioned

23rd JunePM confirms hospitality may re-open on 4th July

Market Recovery Tracking: Go on a UK holidayTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

The remaining weeks of August see intentions to go on a UK holiday before the end of August and September continue to drop, due in large part to people having already taken their holiday. Intention totake a holiday before the end of December, however, increases from 45% to 48%, as those yet to take any breaks look to use up holiday allowance before the end of the year.

VB2ac: - Thinking of the next UK holiday or short break you are likely to take, when are you likely to plan, book and go on this tripQ1a. And when exactly was the last time you did the following activity/activities?

17 1418 16 17 17

21 21 21 24 22 19 16 14

27 26 29 27 26 2734 37

32 34 36 3527 26

41 4249

45 47 4854 54

49 4650 51

45 48

6469 71 68

72 72 74 7268 69

75 7571 68

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

4% 6%

Week 1 Week 2

Proportion been on a UK holiday this year

25%

8%


14%


This week


3.6


done

7.4






22 22 18 17 17 15 18 22 172118 14

8%

August 2020

18 18

Average anticipated lead time before planning, booking or taking a holiday

5.4

5.5 6.05.7 5.7

6.8

7.3

6.5 6.46.6

5.9

5.4

5.8

5.6

5.3 5.24.8

5.3 5.5

8.79.1

8.78.4 8.4

7.6

7.0 7.2 76.6 6.7

6.2

6.76.4

5.9 6.06.2

6.06.3

7.2

7.7

7.06.8

7.1

6.2

5.65.9 5.8

5.5 5.4 5.25.5

5.7

5.3 5.3

6.1 5.96.2

6.87.3

6.66.4

6.6

5.8

5.45.7

5.45.5

5.1 5.15.3

5.6

6-7 Apr

14-15 Apr

20-22 Apr

27-28 Apr

4-5 May

11-12 May

19-22 May

26-29 May

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 June

23-25 June

30 June-2 Ju

ly

7-9 July

14-17 July

21-23 July

28-30 July

4-6 August

11-13 August

Book a flight

Go on an overseas holiday

Book an overseas holiday

Plan an overseas holiday

Average lead times for going on an overseas holiday continue to rise this week, possibly as a reaction to changes in quarantine rules.

Mon

ths

9th May14 day quarantine

First mentioned

3rd JulyQuarantine rules

relaxed

26th JulyNew countries on

quarantine list

Market Recovery Tracking: Book hotel accommodation To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

As with domestic holidays, the forward outlook for hotel stays is weaker than in late July – reflecting the fact that some have now taken their trip / made their stay. There is,however, some recovery in intentions this week, after last week’s trough.


17 1419 17

13 1418 15

22 20 19 1811 11

27 2530 28

23 2329

24 27 26 26 28

16 19

41 4145 43 43 40

4437 39 38 41 41

34 36

6164 66 64

6962 63 62

58 60 63 61 60 59

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

5% 5%

Week 1 Week 2

Book hotel accommodation since permitted

45%

<1% 1% 2% 8%


16%


August 2020

This week


4.0


done

6.8



By end of August 2020By end of September 2020

22 29 24 26 22 28 27 29 252728 25

<1% 1% 3% 12%

31 29

Activity is permitted



Market Recovery Tracking: Go on an overseas holiday To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

After last week’s record-low in overseas holiday intentions, there is partial recovery in the forward outlook this week – but the picture remains more negative than at any time through thesummer months. The incidence of those who have taken an overseas summer holiday (among our ‘Travel Activist’ subset) is just 2% - compared to 28% who did so out of season in Q1.


7 5 5 6 5 6 6 85 5 5 3 2 2

13 10 11 10 11 11 12 14 11 10 11 84 5

21 21 23 22 22 23 24 23 21 2218 21

12 15

62 64 64 6569 66

6063

60 61 61 5952

60

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

1% 1%

Week 1 Week 2

Go on an overseas holiday since permitted

28%

2%


2%


This week


6.4


done

8.3






23 25 26 22 21 24 19 22 212327 22

2%

August 2020

25 24

Among those contemplating an overseas holiday, ‘beach and resort’ remain the most appealing type of break, followed by ‘city break’. Spain remains the leading single destination mentioned, despite quarantine measures put in place. Which of the following type of overseas holiday you are planning/going to book?

48

43

27

22

15

14

8

7

7

6

5

3

40

40

30

18

12

15

10

8

6

9

4

8

36

35

27

18

11

11

7

2

3

8

4

9

6-7 April26-29 May11-13 August

A City break

Visiting friends or relatives

To visit a local area or attraction

Beach and resort

Special treat (e.g. romantic stay, anniversary)

Activity and adventure

Sporting activities (watching or participating)

Shopping trip

Party/Function (including wedding, stag/hen do's)

Business reasons (conference, training…)

Winter sports

Other

And where are you planning to go?

Q27. Which of the following type of overseas holiday are you planning/going to book? Q28: And where are you planning to go overseas?* Last reported (week 10) if it differs in brackets

Top 5 mentions* (difference with end of May)

Spain (=) USA (France) France (USA)

Greece (=) Italy (Netherlands)

1 2 3

4 5

“”“ ”

On social media: there is growing confusion and fear over quarantine rules when returning to the UK as 3 new countries are added to the quarantine list.

“”“”

“ ”It seems the fear of an imposition by the U.K. of an

unscheduled quarantine on return is driving some to holiday in the U.K. rather than France

“”

France is “on the cliff-edge” of being removed from the UK’s travel corridor list, according to an industry figure, with a decision expected by the end of the week that could mean hundreds of thousands of Britons holidaying there would have to quarantine on their return.

Replying to @TUIUK -I don’t understand this stand. The advice is that you have to quarantine on arrival back in the UK. Your promise is to not take people to places they will need to quarantine. Our villa has been cancelled over there (we are flight only). What are you proposing we do?

I have family in Germany and was considering Hull to zeebrugge. If I drive from Germany, without stopping, to the ferry, through passport control, am I considered to have entered Belgium for the uk quarantine purposes?

France big reduction in positive tests (below UK yesterday). totally flawed logic to insist on blanket quarantine when coming back versus our own country. Why is the UK incapable of testing at our airports like others? Why aren't we looking at specific regions?

@TUIUKNothing is going to change, re quarantine. I just wanted to rebook to a different destination. Won't be doing that now as Tuihave left it too late. Have arranged UK contingency plan now so will be asking for refund when the inevitable is announced.

If you choose to #holiday abroad, you have to recognise the risk of #lockdown on your return. It's a personal choice and a personal risk“ ”

https://twitter.com/TUIUK

https://twitter.com/TUIUK

How have key hotel brand portfolios been spoken about on social media? - Marriott

54 167,541

22,450

10,483

5,338

32

86

79

68

68

67

52

78*



*An aggregate NET sentiment based on the brands presented on this slide For social analytics methodology and full set of scores for all brands tracked, please refer to the Appendix

How have key hotel brand portfolios been spoken about on social media? - Hilton

7241

40

73

15

54

62

0

43*




169,746

15,821

17,505

12,578


Hilton: key themes on social media

Shares

Cleanliness

Lays off 2100 staff

Citigroup research report

Discrimination

Golden globe awards associationDiscounts

Hilton launched its CleanStay programme as a means of optimising both safety and reassurance – and cleanliness accounts for a sizeable share of conversation around the brand. Less positively, Hilton’s reputation has not escaped unscathed from its major redundancy programme; it has also been blighted by high profile discrimination law suits.

How have key hotel brand portfolios been spoken about on social media? - IHG

62

16,613

92,601

20,402

35,296

59

54

20

46

66

58

77

82 73

51*

Net Sentiment Passion Intensity Number of mentions 23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020


72,523


IHG: key themes on social media

Price/Shares

Hospitality

Quarantine

Top priority supporting employees and key workersRestaurant

Overwhelmed

President/Caracas

Cleanliness

IHG’s themes share many commonalities with other hotel businesses, with cleanliness and safety protocols featuring prominently. In both the UK and USA, it has benefited from a significant volume of conversations around its support for key workers through the crisis.

52

How have key hotel brand portfolios been spoken about on social media?

15 60

64

55

68

49

76

60

55

57

73 69Accor*

Net Sentiment Passion Intensity Number of mentions23rd March 2020 – 10th August 2020


18,465

15,100

39,715

20,470

4,547

7,136


After last week’s spike in anticipated lead-times to next shopping trip and cinema visit, there is a welcome return to shortening lead-times this week. The positive trend for restaurants continues.

4.1 4.0 4.13.9

4.3

3.84.1

3.43.2

2.9

2.42.7 2.6

2.01.8

1.5 1.6

1.81.8

5.0 4.74.5

4.64.9

4.7 4.6

4.13.8

3.63.3

3.13.2

2.2 2.11.8 1.8

1.5 1.3

5.2 5.3 5.45.8 5.6 5.6 5.6

5.0 5.0 4.94.6

4.24.5

3.8 3.73.3 3.4

4.4

3.64.34.7 4.5

3.9

4.65.0

4.84.4

3.9 4.23.9

3.53.7

2.92.5

2.32.5

2.92.6

6-7 Apr

14-15 Apr

20-22 Apr

27-28 Apr

4-5 May

11-12 May

19-22 May

26-29 May

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 June

23-25 June

30 June-2 Ju

ly

7-9 July

14-17 July

21-23 July

28-30 July

4-6 August

11-13 August

Go shopping or to ashopping mall

Go to a restaurant

Go to the cinema

Go to the gym

Average time before undertaking leisure activities

Mon

ths

Market Recovery Tracking: Go on a shopping trip / to a shopping mall To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

For retail, the picture is mixed: on the one hand, actual levels of re-engagement continues to improve (nearly a third of Travel Activists have been on a shopping trip since the lifting oflockdown). Looking ahead, however, the incidence of those with planned shopping trips is continuing to decline – 1 in 5 this week intend to shop but have no idea when.


39 3842

4741

4844 42

4548

53 50

3733

5348

56 5751

5653 53

56 54

6457

4945

67 6974 74

70 69 68 67 68 6672

69

62 60

7277

81 8175 74 75 73 75 72

7975

69 68

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

0% 0% 1% 1%

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

Gone on a shopping trip / to a shopping mall since permitted

76%

12%26%


This week


1.8


done

4.3






17 19 12 14 16 14 16 17 151515


August 2020

15%24%

Week 1 Week 2

12%

31%

16

28%

17 21

Market Recovery Tracking: Go to a restaurant To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

The picture for the restaurant market continues to improve. While the incidence of those dining out is still a fraction of pre-COVID levels, there is clear progress week-on-week, withforward intentions significantly stronger than for neighbouring sectors.


3528

35 33 34 3339 36 33

4248

5254 5048

4250 48 47 49 49 50 49

5359 60 62 6264 64

69 67 6670

66 67 70 6771 68 70

7476 7579 76 76 78 75 76 78

7378 79 79 80

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

19%28%

Week 1 Week 2

Gone to a restaurant since permitted

85%

22%


36%


This week


1.3


done

3.6






18 23 17 20 17 20 21 19 182119

August 2020

16

22%

17 16

“ ”

“ ”10.5 million uses of Eat Out to Help Out in the first week alone! Considering that’s across only 3 days as well, it’s fair to say this policy has been a howling success!

“ ”

On social media: the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme has had an overwhelmingly positive response. Many restaurants have had the nice ‘problem’ of lengthy queues and greater demand than capacity.

“ ”“

”

“ ”Rishi's Dishes have been a great success! Eat your heart out to help out!

“ ”All the “experts” couldn’t wait to say @RishiSunakeat out to help scheme was a white elephant - I’m pleased it’s been a run away success so far with many restaurants fully booked & trades up on this time last year.

Yesterday was one more day eligible for "Eat out to help out". At my local Nandos past lunchtime queue was 3 hours waiting length.

I fully understand the underlying concerns but, have to say the eatout to help out scheme has been a rip roaring success in Chester, you literally can't get in many restaurants without booking.

I mean how can I not take part in the eat out to help out scheme.

The eat out to help has been a huge success , it’s amazing how a national advertising campaign can help. Well done Rishi a great idea and perhaps the light at the end of the tunnel.Morangie Hotel Tain Highlands.

https://twitter.com/RishiSunak

Market Recovery Tracking: Go to the cinema To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

After last week’s sharp decline, forward intentions for cinema visits recover somewhat. With a number of films such as Mulan due to have been released earlier in the year having gone straightto streaming services, many films scheduled for release from mid September onwards (such as King's Man and Dune) have kept their original release dates in the hope that once re-openedcinema attendance may pick up.


15 1417 17 15

1118

1418

12 13 12

4 6

22 2227 26 26

2228

23 2419

22 22

1014

42 45 45 45 4439

43

3539

3539 37

2329

52

60 58 60 5853 54

4752

4650 51

3742

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

0% 1%

Week 1 Week 2

Gone to the cinema since permitted

57%

2%


2%


This week


3.6


done

6.8






24 22 22 21 21 25 29 29 302725

August 2020

24

2%

33 28

“”

I mean I'm perfectly comfortable going to the cinema as the UK is pretty much out of lockdown But like Most of the world isn't?? It just seems like poor timing for most?

On social media: despite some enthusiasm to return to cinemas, there is still concern of the consequences, many fearing a second wave. Once cinemas re-open and reviews start coming in, the hope is that this may encourage others to follow.

“”

“ ”

“”

In the UK they basically are. I know cineworld opened. It would depend on where you live. We’ve already been through the worst of it basically everything is open and it’s easy to social distance in a cinema since there are designated seats.

Idk if I should go or not. usually my cinema is empty anyway so it wouldn’t be that big of a risk but idk if iI want to put myself in that situation especially since the uk are expected to have another spike

You do realise that the UK Government has decided in its infinite wisdom to make wearing a face covering in the cinema compulsory from tomorrow?? I'd delay that film guys as nobody in their right mind will go to the cinema for the foreseeable future“ ”

Tbh even if cinemas are open, I live with someone who was high risk, there’s no way I would feel comfortable going to a cinema until I’ve gone back to uni, moved out, and no longer live with my Mum whose vulnerable. Uk is gearing up for round 2 we’re no South Korea BH.

“ ”I’d imagine you can try to eat popcorn with your mask on although you’ll find popcorn all over the floor which then requires more unnecessary extra cleaning

“ ”In the UK we will have to wear face coverings in the cinema as well as socially distance. While it is for health and safety reasons, these measures will impede on the cinema experience that I so love “ ”

Big hit, the US has 4 million cases and is getting more by the second, the UK is planning to close down other stores for school to start. So many countries are struggling with the pandemic, we can't risk going into a cinema

“ ”August 26th apparently. Too soon for the UK. However much I desperately want to see this wouldn’t feel safe in a cinema yet.

Market Recovery Tracking: Go to the gymTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Like many of the other indoor facility businesses, gyms are sensitive to spikes in concerns about infection rates and the possibility of a second wave. The incidence of those going to thegym remains a small fraction of ‘normal’ levels. The forward outlook currently suggests that participation will still not have recovered fully by Q2 2021.


13 14 15 16

11 1115

13 13 1317

139 10

19 20 2123

18 1821 20 19 19

2420

14 14

2830 30 30

2725

2826

24 25

3026

19 20

3437 37 36

3432

34 34

29 29

3532

26 27

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

Gone to the gym since permitted

31%

0% 0% 0% 4%






11 12 10 10 14 11 12 16 161110


10This week


2.6


done

6.0

3% 4%

Week 1 Week 2


4%

14

4%

August 2020

16

Transport

By end of August 2020

Market Recovery Tracking: Book a flight To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Flight booking continues its fairly slow recovery with the overall incidence of those who have done so since April virtually unchanged from last week. Plans to book a flight are lessoptimistic than previously for the remainder of the year as airlines are looking to reduce their flight schedules for September and October and uncertainty grows about whichcountries might be added to the UK quarantine list.


1410

13 12 11 912 11 10 10 8 6 5 4

19 1720 19

16 1619

15 15 15 13 138 9

3330

34 32 31 30 32

24 24 24 25 2521 20

5661 60 58

64

56 5550

53 51 5350

4752

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

1% 1%

Week 1 Week 2

Have done the activity since permitted

29%

<1% 3% 2% 5%


11%


August 2020

This week


5.5


done

7.6



By end of September 2020Activity is permitted



25 25 23 21 23 25 25 25 27

<1% 3% 5%

2526 28 29

8%

26

Market Recovery Tracking: Take the busTo what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Similar to flight bookers the overall incidence of bus users remains consistent compared to the previous week even though the share of those who have taken the bus this week ismarginally higher. The challenge, it seems, is to convince those who used the bus before lockdown but have not done so again since that bus usage is safe again – of which the ‘COVIDConcerned’ segment is a considerable proportion.


26 2631

35

28 26 26 2630

34

26 28 28 27

37 3639

42

35 3336 34

39 40

3336 34 35

45 47 4954

43 4448

4347 48

39

4642 44

5157 58 59

53 5258

53 55 5549

5549

53

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

14% 15%

Week 1 Week 2


65%

7% 8% 7%17%


28%


August 2020

This week


2.1


done

4.2






16 20 15 14 16 16 16 18 201616 16 18

7% 9% 11% 21%

15

Market Recovery Tracking: Take the train To what extent is consumer participation in each activity sector recovering to ‘normal’ levels?

Growth in rail usage resumes again as more COVID Cautious Travel Activists take the train. Lead time to the next planned train journey, however, is unchanged from last week.


By end of December 2020

25 2326 28

2219

22 24 24 2320

2519 17

36 36 35 3632

2733

36 3429 31

35

26 28

46 4853 52

44 4247 47 47

4144

49

40 41

5662 64 63

57 5559 58 57

52 54

61

52 54

11-12 M

ay

19-22 M

ay

26-29 M

ay

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 Ju

ne

23-25 Ju

ne

30 June-2

July

7-9 July

14-17 Ju

ly

21-23 Ju

ly

28-30 Ju

ly

4-6 August

11-13 Aug

ust

6% 9%

Week 1 Week 2


59%

4% 4% 6%12%


17%


August 2020

This week


2.8


done

5.1


Planning on doing it but don’t know when By end of April 2021 or later




20 21 20 16 22 21 21 23 262122 19 24

3% 5% 7% 16%

20

4.9 4.9 4.94.5 4.7 4.7 4.8

4.3 4.1 4.24.0

3.83.4 2.9

3.12.7 2.8 2.8 2.8

4.2 4.44.0 3.8

4.44.0 4.2

3.63.0

3.43.1 3.3 3.3

2.5 2.12.4 2.3 2 2.1

5.4 5.56.0

5.7 5.7

6.87.3

6.5 6.4 6.65.9

5.45.8 5.6 5.3 5.2

4.85.3 5.5

6-7 Apr

14-15 Apr

20-22 Apr

27-28 Apr

4-5 May

11-12 May

19-22 May

26-29 May

2-4 June

9-11 June

16-18 June

23-25 June

30 June -2

July

7-9 July

14-17 July

21-23 July

28-30 July

4-6 August

11-13 August

Take the train

Take a bus

Book a flight

Average time before taking the bus, train and booking a fight

9th May14 day quarantine

first mentioned

Mon

ths

3rd JulyList of quarantine free countries announced

The headwinds for air travel show no sign of abating. Sluggish demand (linked to continued consumer fears about the virus / quarantine concerns) has been met by cuts in airline schedules. The result is another week of lengthening lead times.

“ ”

Net Sentiment towards British Airways nose-dives as redundancy notices are made public

“ ”“ ”Well Willie Walsh you must be over the moon you’ve achieved a life long goal that is to destroy a once iconic British brand along livelihoods of thousands well done !the suffering you’ve caused hope you will never enjoy the blood money you’ve taken @British_Airways @BaBetrayal

Another Blackmail by British Airways towards its staff. “Sign before the 17th & we’ll give you staff travel”. Amy & Alex are putting again pressure and forcing staff to give up their existing contracts. Hang in there & do not sign anything! @BaBetrayal @BASSA_2000

Are you aware @nytimes @British_Airways#WillieWalsh has made approx 10k+ staff and a union chairman redundant in one week. @BorisJohnson has ignored it for 16 weeks and is on holiday in Scotland.

“ ”So yesterday I got 'kept on' by @British_Airways Well actually, I got a notice of termination of my contract wrapped up as a job offer with a massive pay cut. But hey, why get bogged down with semantics. #BAbetrayal#NationalDisgrace #fireandrehire @BaBetrayal

“ ”Really sad for all the BA staff who just got shafted today. @British_Airways you are an absolute disgrace and don’t deserve their loyalty in the end #BAbetrayal

-60-50-40-30-20-10

010

Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10

British Airways - Net Sentiment on Social Media

7th August - redundancies were shared with BA staff

“ ”The way @British_Airways are treating the crew is disgusting. Time to #boycottbritishairways

“ ”British Airways employment pplicy stinks, I will never ever fly BA again. Disgusting!!!!

How have long haul airlines been spoken about on social media? 23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020

-15

Net Sentiment

6

18

Passion Intensity

42

36

87

Number of mentions

45 100

496

28

3

74

90

400,558

77,980

138,751

149,002

294,090

27,992

865,297


Virgin Atlantic: key themes on social media For Virgin Atlantic, themes relate to advice on travel, refunds and the potential restart of flights this summer and later in 2021. As for many airlines, there is significant conversation around VA’s financial challenges, a rescue plan (UK) and filing for bankruptcy protection (US) .

Resuming flights 2021

Contact

Consortium/Delta Air/Stobart stakes

National Health Service

Travel advice

Coronavirus

Bankruptcy/Creditors/Chapter

Refund

Restart

Timeframes/Refund/Processed

Pandemic bankruptcy

British Airways: key themes on social media

Email/Cancelled

Singapore Airlines/Lufthansa

Coronavirus/Quarantine

#COVID19

Heathrow/Gatwick July 25

Biggest Operator

Landing slots/Firing

Staff cuts

@Heathrowairport

#Babetrayal

Fire and Hire plans

#Bastopthinkagain

Devastating impact

Support for BA staff

British Airways dealt with similar issues relating to quarantining arrivals, cancellations and minimal flights during the lockdown. BA has made mass redundancies as it seeks to steady the ship – inevitably leading to negative word-of-mouth / keyboard – most notably the #BABetrayal movement.

How have budget airlines been spoken about on social media?

43

61

498,724

434,242


-3

-18



44

How have airports been spoken about on social media?

51

88

68


-13

1

-17

58


18,837

148,438

1,432,545

54,931


Heathrow: key themes

Corporate greed - BA

Aviation

#Fireandrehire plan

Social distancing

Vouchers/Refunds

#Handbacktheslots

Cancelled flight

Customer service

China flights

Passengers/Attendants

Profits and return

Contact details

Support/board/care

Coronavirus

Temperatures

As an airport to many of the larger airlines, themes associated with Heathrow Airport relate to #BaBetrayal that was widely conversed online and within the media alongside major airports. Alongside this, the airport has dealt with refunds, cancelled flights, as well as ensuring safety through COVID safety measures as flights resumed.

Personal and business finances

As the UK enters deep recession, consumers’ financial circumstances are in fact better than at the start of lockdown and in comparison to the 2008/9 crisis. But for how long?

Q17: If you had to choose, which ONE of the following statements would best describe your feelings about your own situation, right now?Q18: Some people are just naturally cautious with money. Others have become cautious, because of their financial situation during the coronavirus pandemic. Which one of the following best describes you?

7

29

19

29

16

9

37

16

23

15

I’m one of the lucky ones – I’m actually better off than before

I’m alright – the coronavirus pandemic has not really affected me and I’m pretty confident that it won’t

I’ve been hit hard

I’m cautious - I’m just naturally cautious with money

I’m cautious - impactedWeek 3

Week 21

I’m one of the lucky ones – I’m actually better off than before

I’m alright – the coronavirus pandemic has not really affected me

and I’m pretty confident that it won’t

I’ve been hit hard

I’m cautious - I’m just naturallycautious with money

I’m cautious - impacted

Personal feeling about own current situation - segments

2008/2009 Financial CrisisAverage across 6 Waves ofBVA BDRC’s Project Mars

4%

23%

35%

20%

17%

Meanwhile businesses are already grappling with survival measures

We consulted our Business Views community to understand the mood, emotions and anticipated actions in light of the news that the UK has entered the worst recession on record. While some are clearly more resilient than others it is anything but ‘BAU’ for the majority of businesses; even those feeling relatively upbeat at present are treading carefully, mindful of the challenging times ahead. Stringent cost controls will have a knock-on effect for service providers but there is likely to be an opportunity for any brands in a position to provide guidance and help businesses navigate turbulent circumstances or adapt their current business model.

Business response to news about the recession

Source: BVA Business Views CommunityIn light the news about the recession, what score between 0 and 10 would you give for how you are feeling at the moment about your business? Which emotions are you feeling as a result of this news? What actions or activities might you take to try and minimise the overall impact of the recession on your business?

Anxious / concerned / pessimistic / guilty disconnected

Fed-up / tired / indifferent / apprehensive / vindicated

Wary / hopeful / determined / sympathetic to others

Mood

Feelings

Bad6 of 35

Neutral14 of 35

Good15 of 35

RedundanciesLooking for new ventures

Cost + credit control / marketing + customer acquisition / striving to deliver value / closer management / better forecasting / innovation and diversificationActions

““

“““

Comments from the Business Views community highlight the melting pot of emotions and determination to adapt wherever possible

Source: BVA Business Views CommunityIn light the news about the recession, what score between 0 and 10 would you give for how you are feeling at the moment about your business? Which emotions are you feeling as a result of this news? What actions or activities might you take to try and minimise the overall impact of the recession on your business?

What will my long term future look like? Do I need to think of completely new services and say goodbye to my favourite work? Emotions: sadness, but also some happy anticipation; possible excitement. Then I feel sort of worried too. In short, emotions are mixed an they go up and down.

[Management Consultancy, sole trader]

I have a loss of interest in today’s world. I will just walk away.

[Non for profit organisation, 100-199 employees]

I will almost certainly have to make some redundancies. I need to start shopping around for another supplier in the hope of saving money and improving availability. Making protective screens for shops and reception areas has kept the business ticking over throughout the pandemic but for the most part it's been rush orders, minimal appropriate materials and manpower so I want to improve and increase the product line and target all our potential customers asap. I will also spend more time talking to other business owners to see if there are any ways we can help each other through this time.

[Manufacturing, 11-49 employees]

Not surprised as output has been low, I am concerned and worried about the future as I cannot see a plan from the Government and still don’t know about BREXIT deals. We have expanded our sales department to expand the circle of customers around the world. We have tightened our Credit control to ensure we have a handle of our outstanding invoices. We are in the process of examining all the external services we use for price and need.

[Manufacturing, 100-199 employees]

We are unable to do any events – we’ll just prolong the recovery until common sense relaxes the rules. But we will make staff redundant.

[Hospitality, 3-5 employees]

58

How have banks been spoken about on social media?

7 47 215,860

161,746

63,683

61,975

53,500

44

71

27

18

49

57

59



The neobanks have consistently led the charge on social media, however Nationwide proves that it is possible to achieve similarly strong sentiment, on a par with Starling, yet with a very different proposition and business model. ‘Big banks’ Barclays and NatWest are some way behind in comparison.


Starling: key themes

Transaction fees

Fintech

Account, credit checks and unauthorized transactions

Other challenger banks (Monzo, Revolut)

Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS)

Opening an account

Mobile app

Shaping Fintech/conference

Conversation about Starling has balanced recognition of the brand’s contribution to shaping the future of banking, with fundamental product features such as its stance on transaction fees or the provision of CBILS – the latter credited with contributing to a ‘transformational period’ for the bank.

Barclays: key themes

Dividends to shareholders and Bounce Back scheme

Home owner loans

Business support from Barclays during covid-19

Customer service

Barclays’ dedication to help customers during covid-19

Former Barclays’ bosses cleared of fraud

Mobile app and queries

Online transactions and technical issues

Many of the big banks benefited from a halo effect as a result of the launch of consumer and business coronavirus support measures, and Barclays is no exception, however fervent discussion about technical issues (particularly the app) dilutes overall sentiment

Appendix

What is a market segmentation?

Who to TARGET

How to ACCESS

them

How to ATTRACT

them

How to RETAIN them

How to MAXIMISE

SPEND

The market segmentation will tell you…

WHERE HOW

Segmentation provides a structured way of looking at the market, providing clear, granular information about each group to plan from

Methodology

Survey of ConsumersNationally representative online survey, conducted weekly. This week we surveyed 1,759 British adults.

During the first 8 weeks of tracking, our otherwise nationally representative survey filtered on people actively engaged in two of the following sectors:

1. Public transport / mass-transit

2. Visitor attractions

3. Hotels & paid-for accommodation

From Wave 9 onwards, we have not filtered on engagement with these sectors, but provide a directly comparable sub-sample of those who would have met the equivalent criteria.

For ease of reference in our reporting we use two icons to distinguish between the two audiences:

Social media analyticsWith customers increasingly communicating directly with organisations and their peers through online channels, these conversations cannot be ignored in the assessment of the COVID-19 crisis on brands.

Our social analytics capability gets closer to the conversations happening in the online space, by listening to how brands are talked about across social media and how brands’ reactions to the situation is viewed online.

Rigorous content cleaning and checks are set and regularly reviewed to ensure data quality. The analysis is focused primarily on conversations around the coronavirus over the past week.

= ‘Travel Activists’ (based on the definition above and used in Waves 1 - 8)

= ‘All UK Adults’ (nationally-representative)

Similar to the quantitative survey, social media will be analysed on a weekly basis. For this report we’ve examined:• 15,916 posts for the transport sector• 11,795 posts from the leisure sector• 7870 posts from the hospitality sector• 14,931 posts from the financial sector

Methodology

Social media analytics – Brand Analysis Social media content was analysed from the time periods of 23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020, with AI theme discovery Feb 17th-Aug 17th

The data depicts the following:- Net sentiment

- Passion Intensity

- Number of mentions

- Number of posts

- AI theme discovery

Content analysed: The net sentiment, passion intensity, number of mentions and number of posts are social media conversations that are taking place on earned channels. All AI theme discovery uses ALL content from both earned, partnered and owned channels.

Language coverage: No geographical restriction is applied but the conversation is filtered on the English language only (exception of AI theme discovery). All other languages are not present in the main analysis.

Net SentimentHow positive the online discussions are. A Net Sentiment score of +100 means that all opinions of the brand are positive while a score of -100 means that all opinions of the brand are negative. Net Sentiment deducts the proportion of negative discussions from the proportion of positive discussions

Passion Intensity How passionate are social media users towards each brand. How emotionally charged the customers’ feelings are, whether positive or negative. For instance, words such as awesome, delight and exceptional, are considered as strong positive emotions while words such as adequate, appreciate and appropriate, are considered as weak positive emotions.

AI Theme Discovery:The first auto-discovery insights tool in the social listening space for discovering themes associated with a given brand. This is based on all content in all geographies. It was analysed over a period of the last 6 months.

Sentiment – Summary table – Brand Analysis23rd March 2020– 10th August 2020


Hampton Court Palace 98 100 21,766Thatchers 90 20 8,417Kew Gardens 86 60 48,049Courtyard by Marriott 86 68 22,450Sea Life London Aquarium 84 100 724Crowne Plaza 82 72 16,613JW Marriott 79 67 10,483Novotel 76 65 20,470Mercure 74 49 4,547Hilton Garden Inn 73 62 15,821Legoland Windsor 70 28 6,020AC Hotels by Marriott 68 52 5,338Heineken 62 56 86,650English Heritage 60 82 35,008Best Western 60 56 18,465IHG 59 62 72,523Starling 59 58 53,500Manchester Airport 58 68 54,931ibis 58 53 7,136Nationwide 57 27 161,746Kensington Palace 56 54 201,303Premier Inn 55 69 15,100Tower of London 55 75 63,951Holiday Inn 54 66 92,601


Monzo 49 71 63,683InterContinental 46 77 20,402Emirates Airline 45 100 400,558Hilton 41 72 169,746DoubleTree by Hilton 40 54 17,505National Trust 39 44 135,270Marriott 32 54 167,541Singapore Airlines 28 74 77,980Holiday Inn Express 20 58 35,296Etihad Airways 18 87 138,751NatWest 18 44 61,975Travelodge 15 60 39,715Hampton by Hilton 15 0 12,578Barclays 7 47 215,860Virgin Atlantic Airlines 6 36 294,090Qantas 6 49 149,002Cathay Pacific 3 90 27,992Gatwick Airport 1 44 148,438EasyJet -3 43 498,724Heathrow Airport -13 51 1,432,545British Airways -15 42 865,297London City Airport -17 88 18,837Ryanair -18 61 434,242Chessington World of Adventures Resort

-48 48 14,044

Attractions and leisure Hotels Transport

Banks Media

Contact

Matt CostinManaging Director

Tim SanderDirector

Alice WellsResearch Executive

Caroline AhmedDirector

Jon YoungDirector

Thomas FolquéAssociate Director

James BlandDirector

Max WilleyDirector

07772 605 303

[email protected]

07875 148 051

[email protected]

07980 712 563

[email protected]

07919 383 728

[email protected]

07875 685 838

[email protected]

07989 165 658

[email protected]

0207 490 9130

[email protected]

0207 490 9139

[email protected]

Hannah SmithJunior Research Executive

0207 490 9166

[email protected]

Suzy HassanManaging Director

07795 662 548

[email protected]

Diana MeternaSenior Research Executive

0207 490 9149

[email protected]

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