tracking and extrapolating precipitation episodes in the national convective weather forecast d....
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![Page 1: Tracking and Extrapolating Precipitation Episodes in the National Convective Weather Forecast D. Ahijevych, S. Trier, C. Mueller, D. Megenhardt](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022012922/56649f225503460f94c3a11f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tracking and Extrapolating Precipitation Episodes in the National Convective Weather Forecast
D. Ahijevych, S. Trier, C. Mueller,D. Megenhardt
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Warm Season Precipitation Episodes
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Rainfall Streaks
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Potential Predictability
Coherent regeneration of convective rainfallAnchored to diurnal cycle and topographyFrequent when forecast skill is lowestCan we identify and track long-lived episodes in real time?
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Rainfall Streak Detection
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TITAN Software
Finds coherent precipitation zones in smoothed radar reflectivity (>10dBZ)Extrapolates based on last 6 hours of propagation
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Extrapolated Precipitation Zone
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6 hours later…
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6 hours later…
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Extrapolation issues
Mergers and splits
Back building & sudden southward propagation
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Dissipation Issues
False alarm rateUse new episode climatology based on TITAN track historyFilter by time-of-day and longitude with current rain streak climatology
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Probability of Rain Streak Continuance (red=high blue=low)
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Final Thoughts
Implementing in NCWFBest lead time to use (3-9h?)Blending with numerical model
Regime dependency?Some periods work better than others