towards an integrated system of tourism statistics keynote address ibge second national meeting
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TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS Keynote Address IBGE Second National Meeting of Producers and Users of Social Economical and Territorial Information Prepared by: Scott M. Meis, UNWTO Consultant Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 25 August, 2006. Introduction. Thank you - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS
Keynote Address
IBGE Second National Meeting of Producers and Users of Social Economical
and Territorial Information
Prepared by:Scott M. Meis, UNWTO Consultant
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil25 August, 2006
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• Thank you−Eduardo, for the invitation−Roberto, for the hospitality & advice−Neiva, for the help −Pepe – a mentor, I keep following in his
footsteps…with this topics as with others!
• Initial challenge… intimidating!• Realization: Statistics systems
development and integration have been the focus of my “whole career”!
Introduction
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Focus: Identify, specify & explain the case for, and
concepts, of a “System of Tourism Statistics” (STS), and
An “Integrated” system (ISTS)
Purpose: Specify the meaning and significance of
“integration” for STS
Objectives: Demonstrate contributions of TSA to ISTS Identify the benefits of ISTS
Overview
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Rationale
Key Concepts
Information/data Needs
Users & Uses
Data Sources
Organizing the Data: TSA Role
Illustrative Examples
Management, Collaboration & Coordination
Conclusions
Overview
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Welfareeconomics
Assumptions:•Pereto efficiency•Perfect competition•Market failure
Approaches: •Correct market failure by:−external effects− production of public goods− information deficits
WHAT ARE THE TOOLS?
Assumptions: •Growth endogenous to economic systems
Approaches:•Strengthening human resources by education & training• Strengthening research & development
Transactioncosts
New Growththeory
Rationale: Why Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research?
JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION
Social integration
Assumptions:•High transaction costs for tourism SMEs •Resulting supply shortages
Approaches: •Reduction of transaction costs•Collaborative promotion•Uncertainty reduction
Assumptions: •Travel promotes interpersonal growth, knowledge & understandingApproaches:•Support domestic travel of youth• Support cultural education potential of 2 way international travel
Source: Adapted from Smeral & Prilisauer, 2005
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JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION
• Tourism promotion/development provides: Stimulating effects of tourism marketing e.g. evidence of minor positive elasticities of
relating to foreign tourism demand Above average high value added effects High general employment & growth effects Relative locational security (i.e.“comparative
advantage”) A significant factor in some economies, ensuring
peoples livelihood and means of subsistence --especially SMEs in rural areas
Rationale: Why State Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research?
Source: Smeral, 2006
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CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF TOURISM
• A social domain – a particular human activity• Defined as a demand-side phenomenon• Temporary mobility of people from usual place of
residence to temporary destinations• Particular subset of travelers called “ visitors”• An amalgam of industries providing commodities
and services directly to the visitor• Related expenditures create economic significance• Localization of impacts• A field of study • A collection of knowledge
Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?
Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989
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Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?
WTO and UN definitions (developed at Ottawa Conference on Tourism Statistics, Canada (1991)):
“the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for no more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes”
Includes:Day trips (excursions) plus “tourist trips” (1+ nights)Travel to visit friends & relativesTravel for businessTravel for personal reason (education LT 1yr, religious & health)
Excludes:Commuting to/from work Study or job relocationDiplomats or armed forces on assignment
Source: Adapted from WTO, 1993
DEFINITION & SCOPE OF TOURISM DEMAND
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FORMS OF TOURISM• Inbound tourism: non-residences visiting a
given country/state (exports)• Outbound tourism: residence visiting in
another country/state (imports)• Domestic tourism: residence visiting within
their own country/state• Internal tourism: domestic + inbound• National tourism: domestic + outbound• International tourism: inbound + outbound
Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway?
Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989
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Rationale: How much is that?
Total tourism **233.5 million person-trips (2004) 127.3 million tourist* person-trips (2004)
Domestic tourism **88.7 million overnight person-trips* 86.4 million same day
Outbound tourismUS: 13.8 million person-trips *Overseas: 5.7 million person-trips *
Inbound TourismUS:
15.0 million overnight person-trips*19.6 million same day
Overseas: 4.1 million overnight person-trips* 0.2 million same day * Tourist = 1+nights
** Not comparable with 2001
230+ MILLION TRIPS7+ X CANADIAN POPULATION (30 MILLION)
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NO measures of the core economic phenomena:• Tourism consumption• Tourism products • Tourism industries
NO credible measures of the economic role and significance of tourism in the national economy
NO core source of data on articulation of tourism markets & industries
NO overview the whole of tourism A dispersed and disorganized collection of information
fragments “The whole is less than the sum of its parts” Martin
Wilke,1985
NO “system” at all!
Previous (Pre-1989)Views of Tourism Data
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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1st reference --Tourism Satellite Account (TSA): Recommended Methodological Framework (1993)
Introduction: beyond being a new statistical instrument, the TSA must be analyzed as a as a ‘building process to guide countries in the development of their own system of tourism statistics, the main objective being the completion of the TSA, which could be viewed as the synthesis of the system’.
“That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to provide the user with reliable, consistent and appropriate statistical information on the socio-economic structure and developments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, in turn be integrated with all the other economic and social statistics at different territorial levels (state, infra-state, and international).”
What is the System of Tourism Statistics?
Source: Massieu, 2001
SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS (STS)
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• “Definition of ‘international tourist’ for statistical purposes”, Council of the League of Nations, 1937
• Revised definition of ‘international tourist’ and concept of ‘international visitor’, International Union of Travel Organizations, 1950, 1953
• Recommended definition for the terms “visitor, tourist and excursionist”, IUOTO, 1963
• “Provisional Guidelines on Statistics for International Tourism”, United Nations Statistical Commission, 1976
• “Le compte satellte du tourisme: presentation des cadres comtables et de la premiere estimations de la defense interieure de tourisme”, Ministere du Commerce, de l’ Artisanat ed du Tourisme, 1979
• “Determination of the importance of tourism as an economic activity within the framework of the national accounting system”, WTO , 1983
• “Le Compte Satellite du Tourisme”, CREDOC, INSEE , 1983• “Tourism and Economics: the Inclusion of Tourism in
Standard Economic Statistics”, OECD, 1984
Concepts: TS History
TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” SEMINAL REFERENCES
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• “ Towards A Tourism Research and Statistics System”, Gordon Taylor, Tourism Canada, 1984
• “Tourism Statistics Program”, Shaila Nijhowne, Statistics Canada, 1985
• “Working Paper #2: Current Data Bases”, Stephen Smith, NTFTD, Statistics Canada, 1985
• “ Working Paper #3: A Satellite Account for Tourism”, Claude Simard & Janet Swinamer, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985
• “Working Paper #5: Characterizing Tourism Demand Standard Definitions and Classification”, Peter Fairchild, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985
• “Working Paper #6: A Report on the Prospects for Establishing Local Area Tourism Data Bases in Canada”, Frank Hart, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985
• Working Paper #4: A Proposed Integrated Framework for the Demand-side Tourism Data Collection in Canada, Brent Ritchie, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985
• National Task Force on Tourism Data: Final Report, Statistics Canada, 1989
Concepts: TS History
TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.)
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• “A Proposal for a Tourism Satelite Account and Information System for Tourism”, Jocelyn Lapierre, Stewart Wells, Kishori Lal, Kathleen Campbell & John Joisce, 1991
• WTO-UN Recommendations on Tourism Statistics , UN- WTO-OECD, 1993
• Technical Manual #2: The Collection of Tourism Expenditure Statistics” WTO, 1995
• “System of Statistical Indicators for Analysing the Economy of Tourism (SINTUR): Progrramme of work for the period 1998-2000”, Working Document No. 5, Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1997
• “A Satellite Account for Tourism (4th Draft)”, WTO, 1998• “A Tourism Satellite Account for OECD Countries (Draft)”,
OECD, 1998“A Research and Development Program for Improved Tourism Industry Decision Making: Technical Paper, Canadian Tourism Commission, 1999
• Les Comptes Satellites du Tourisme: Une proposition de l’Organization mondiale du tourisme pour integrer l’analyze du tourisme dans le cadre de la Cmpatabilite’ Nationale”, Marion Libreros, 2000
Concepts: TS History
TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.)
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• A series of statistical functions relating to tourism including:
Organization and legal structure of the institutional units
that produce tourism statistics (mostly public but some significant private and micro levels)
Administrative mechanisms and (legally) established links between these and a central unit (if one exists)
Statutory and non-statutory nature of certain statistical sources and administrative controls which generate information that is liable to used for statistical purposes, (border controls, sales taxes, registers)
Human and material resources assigned to tasks in these producing units
•
Concepts: STS Scope
Source: Massieu, 2001
STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE
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• Elements: To fulfill its aims (and as subset of the NSS) STS must include:
Statistical Sources: Travel surveys, household resident surveys, business data, systemic syntheses (IO, BOP, SNA), administrative data, etc.
Methodological references: Concepts, classifications, methods and procedures
Instrumental means available: Collection, storage, dissemination and application of the obtained data
Data bases of detailed final results, micro-data files, summary results
Publications (paper & electronic information products) Analytical applications and transformations: impact
models, econometric forecasts, etc.
Concepts: STS Structure
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001
STS STRUCTURE
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•Focus: Marketing aspects of tourism Social aspects of tourism Economic aspect of tourism Financial aspects of tourism Operating aspects of tourism Environmental aspects of tourism Legal aspects of tourism Political aspects of tourism Others
Concepts: STS Structure
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001
STS STRUCTURE (Cont’d.)
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• Reconciliation: Controlling & ensuring that a particular process meets
its assigned purpose and user requirements Controlling consistency/harmonization of statistical
information systems at state/,infra-state and international levels
• Coordination: Balancing tourism statistical/research programmes in terms of ongoing activities, projects and financial and human resources
• Integration: Controlling & ensuring the connection and assembly of the different statistical products
Concepts: STS
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990
STS FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS
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• Instrumental Elements: National and international tourism concepts, definitions, classifications, and standards for tourism
• Integrated Statistical Information Systems:
Tourism Satellite Account Information Systems Tourism Marketing Research & Information
Systems Systems of National Accounts Socio-demographic Information Systems
Concepts: Integration
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990
INTEGRATION ELEMENTS
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• Level of integrated system development a function of number, type and complexity of functions
• Integrated systems require consistency, rigour in preparation of basic tourism statistics
• Integrated systems provide the conceptual framework required to designte instrumental elements: concepts, defintions, classifications & standars
• Integrated systems provided the key leverage point for statistical work in all areas
Concepts: Integration
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990
INTEGRATION SIGNIFICANCE
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DATA NEEDS FOR STS
What kinds of data relate to tourism?
Overall general need: to improve knowledge of tourism reality Specific purposes:
Aid improved public & private decision industry related decision making relating to:
• Advocacy, planning and public awareness• Marketing• Investment, operations and management• Manpower, education and training
Facilitate international comparisons for regulatory and other policy, planning and management purposes To facilitate pure and applied research
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and NTFD, 1989
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TOURISM DATA NEEDS
What kinds of data relate to tourism?
National “macro” level data to establish the economic and social significance of tourism Macro regional data as well to assess and assist regional development policies National data relating to specific policy developments, eg. taxes, exchange rate fluctuations on tourism business National data relating to sector & industry strategic plans “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS
What kinds of data relate to tourism?
Credibility, reliability and validity in representing claimed aspects of tourism reality Timeliness and relevance if intended to aid decision making Produced on a regular basis Consistent & comparable over time, between regions & regions, & with other fields of economic & social activity (i.e. concepts, definitions, classifications, units of analysis, reference populations)
Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001
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DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS (Cont’d.)
What kinds of data relate to tourism?
Sufficient breadth and depth of subject matter to meet most decision-makers’ requirements Internally consistent with recognized economic & socal frameworks Accessibility, transparency and affordability Associated communications and education Objective and scientific (i.e. reproducible) Minimal duplication
Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001
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DATA SOURCES
Multiple, diverse sources – Canada found 275 different Majority in public sector central statistics agencies with national international or regional scope Primarily individual resident and visitor surveys Also business surveys of operating characteristics of tourism sector firms (both public & private) Provincial/state “exit” surveys & specialized surveys of events & attractions
Source: NTFTD, 1989
What tourism data sources are there?
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DATA SOURCES (Cont’d.)
What tourism data sources are there?
Administrative data (both public & private)“Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations Private sector “micro” data of operating characteristics firms, establishments, branches, products, & market segments
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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TSA defines the scope of the tourism sector (industries) to include the direct supply of goods and services to facilitate business, pleasure and leisure activities away from the home environment
TSA defines the core supply-side facets of tourism:• Tourism expenditures• Tourism products • Tourism industries• Tourism demand• Tourism GDP• Tourism Employment• Tourism enterprises
TSA provides credible aggregate measures of the role and significance of tourism in the national economy in terms of total demand, Tourism GDP and employment
TSA provides a core source of data on the articulation of tourism industries with markets
TSA provides tourism interests with a self-view
TSA Defines Scope of Tourism Industry
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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TSA CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTEGRATING TOURISM STATISTICS
A conceptual framework An information system linking source and
derivative databases A source of consistency A tool for reconciliation A tool for comparisons A tool for coordination and collaboration A template for discovery
The TSA & Integration
Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989
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TSA: Data Integration
Link to SNA/I-OLink to SNA/I-O
Canadian System of National AccountsInput/Output Tables
Tourism
Tourism SatelliteAccount
Tourism Monetary Values
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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CTSA: Data Organization
Multi-layered VisionMulti-layered Vision
Core Account
Characterization Data
Capital Module Data
AnalyticalModules
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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RecreationSurveys
Canadian TourismSatellite Account
Survey of Household Spending
Canadian TravelSurvey
InternationalTravel Survey
3 Demand Surveys
Input Output System
Travel Arrangement
Services Survey
Food and Beverage
Survey
Accommodation Survey
Transportation Surveys
13 Supply Surveys
System ofNational Accounts
TSA Information System Vision
Gov’t. Support Planning & Analysis
Source: NTFTD, 1989
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Data Organization: Demand-Supply Link
Linkage Between Commodities & IndustriesLinkage Between Commodities & Industries
Source: NTFTD, 1989
Demand is estimated for groups of goods and services (commodities)
GDP and employment, however, must be calculated by industry
Supply can be calculated either for groups of commodities or by industry/sub-industry categories, establishing the link between demand and GDP
The link is a demand/supply ratio for each commodity
This ratio is then applied to each industry category to calculate GDP and employment in the industry space
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Demand Surveys
Input Output System
Supply Surveys System of National Accounts
Labour Force Survey
Other InformationSuch as
Manufacturing dataInternational Trade data
Tax information
Business informationSuch as
Profits, capital investment,revenues, expenses
Survey of Employment,
Payroll and Hours
All Other Areas ofSystem of
National AccountsReconciliation
Process
Canadian Tourism Satellite
Account
TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation
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Commodities expenditures VS industry revenues
Tourism demand VS supply by
commodity
Tourism inputs VS outputs by
industry Gross outputs VS all inputs
Iterative interactive process
TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation
Balance supply & demand
Balance supply & demand
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ILLUSTRATIONS
Comparable Key Aggregates Comparable Detailed Aggregates Economic Impact Models Economic Indicators Characteristics of the Industry Government Revenues Forecasts Media analysis templates
STS-TSA: Integration Examples
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STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons
VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS
VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS
2000% Change2000/1998
Tourism Spending $ 53.7 B +17%
Foreign Spending(Exports)
$17.8 B +15%
Canadian Spending $ 35.3 B +18%
Canadian Spending Abroad (Imports)
$21.0 B +18%
Travel Account Deficit $ 3.1 B 0.0
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TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR
TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR
STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons
Air transportation24%
Other Industries19%
Other tourism services10%
Food & beverage23%
Accommodation
16%
Other transportation8%
•Tourism GDP: $ 20.4 Billion (2000)•Air transportation = most value added
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TSS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons-PTTSA 1996
Tourism GDP /total GDP
Employment in tourism /total employment
Yukon 4.8 8.1British Columbia 3.5 4.7Prince Édward Isle. 3.1 4.6Nova Scotia 2.6 4.1Newfoundland/Labrador 2.3 3.9Manitoba 2.3 3.2Canada, 1996 2.3 3.7Québec 2.2 3.3Alberta 2.2 3.9Ontario 2.1 3.5NWTerritoires/Nunavut 2.1 4.3New Brunswick 2.0 3.6Saskatchewan 1.8 3.3
(percentage)
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Gross Domestic Product at Basic price, Tourism and Selected Industries in Canada, 2000
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Agriculture,forestry, fishing
and hunting
Mining,oil and gasextraction
Retail trade Health CareServices (exceptHospitals) And
Social Assistance
Hospitals Tourism Motor Vehiclemanufacturing
Mill
ion
s o
f cu
rren
t d
olla
rsSTS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons
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TSS-TSA: Cross Market Comparisons
Tourism Expenditures by Canadians and non residents, 2000
42%
27% 31%
11%
24%
30%
18% 13%
9%
15% 19%11%
19%
14% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Canadians at Home Non-residents in Canada Canadians Abroad
Other Non-tourism Commodities
Other Tourism Commodities
Food and Beverage Services
Accommodation
Transportation
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Accomm.( $ millions )
Food andBeverages($ millions )
TravelServices
($millions)
Agriculture products 53 492 ?
Manufacturing products 2055 7753 ?
Construction services 68 68 ?
Communications/ utilities 479 509 ?
Finance, Insur. R.E. 519 1668 ?
Business & computer serv. 331 239 ?
Source: Tourism Economic Impact Model (TEIM)
1994 External Inputs to Canadian Tourism Sector Selected Industries
Selected Commodity Purchases
Sectoral Linkages: Extra-sectoral purchases
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STS-TSA: Seasonal Comparisons – Total Demand
$8,000
$11,000
$14,000
$17,000
$20,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
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Long Term Trends & Cycles (1986 Q1 to 2001 Q2)
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Total TourismDemand In
Canada( $ millions )
YearlyChange
( % )
YearlyChange (92$)( % )
Transportation 22,417 11.6 3.6
Accommodation 7,460 5.7 0.8
Food and beverage services 8,524 5.2 2.9
Other tourism commodities 5,432 7.1 2.9
Total tourism commodities 43,833 8.7 2.9
Total other commodities 10,243 4.6 4.5
Tourism expenditures 54,076 7.9 3.2Source: National Tourism indicators, Catalogue no. 13-009-XPB.
Total Tourism Spending in Canada by KeyCommodities – 2nd Quarter 2001
STS-TSA: Detailed Quarterly Comparisons
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Food and beverage service (92): 57 99.0
Recreation and entertainment (85,96): 19 99.0
Accommodation (91): 12 97.6
Transportation (45): 6 98.9Travel services (96): 5 99.5
Other 1 ---
Total Enterprises (1999) 159,000* 1980 Standard Industrial Classification** Less than 100 employees
Distribution of Tourism Businessesby Industry *and Size
Structural Linkages: Business Characteristics
%of Total
%SME’s**
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Government Revenue Comparisons
$12.40$8.90
$1.60
Federal Provincial Municipal
TOTAL = $15.4 Billion (1999) * Adjusted = $30 /$100
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Chart 2: Breakdown of coverage by major tourism industry group, April –June 2005*
While the transport industry group continued to lead coverage, mostly from
attention to the airline industry, its share of coverage was greatly reduced from last
quarter as attention to Jetsgo dissipated, resulting in a notable rise in profile for non-industry coverage of government policy and
tourism marketing campaigns.
Cultural8%
Recreation5%
Food and Beverage
3%Hospitality
13%
Transport42%
Non-industry specific
22%
Travel Service
7%
Source: Cormex Research; Canadian Tourism Commission
*Based on total exposure for the quarter.
Media Content Analysis Media Content Analysis
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Latest Integrative Innovation: A Canadian Tourism Industry Industrial Outlook
•Resulting supply-side forecasts are provided quarterly for a five-year period following from the current year.
•Combines information from the preceding instruments and analysis to assess the current and future profitability of the Canadian tourism sector.
• New economic model has been developed specifically to forecast profitability within the various key industry components.
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ISTS: Collaborative Organization
Multi-lateral Technical PartnershipMulti-lateral Technical Partnership
Statistics Canada & Canadian Tourism Commission 20+ Other partners Objective independent statistics agency
Industry champion, leadership, resources, uses Shared goals and objectives Interdependence Regular meetings, fora & working group Leadership, flexibility & firmness Mutual respect & understanding
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Key Requirements of “Integrated” STS
Collaborative organization platform, leadership
& vision Consistent standard concepts Harmonized definitions and measures of
key aggregates Common integrating conceptual and data
framework Tightly integrated Core Account data bases Loosely integrated feeder data bases and
derivative
data bases Independent quality and separate integrity of
linked data sources
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Conclusions
Canada has an “integrated” System of Tourism Statistics The TSA is the integrating instrument Defines tourism products/services Defines tourism industries Developed credible & consistent measures Consistent (broadly) with international standards Reveals total economic effects Comparability with total economy Comparability with other industries Reveals structural linkages Tracks tourism trends and performance Enables industry forecasting & future scenarios