Towards an Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Extreme Events on Barrow, Alaska.

Amanda Lynch and Liz Cassano

Thanks to Mat Rothstein, Ron Brunner, Jim Maslanik, John Cassano and the people of Barrow.

Towards an Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of ExtTreme Events on Barrow, Alaska.

A new project with principal investigators: Amanda Lynch, Ron Brunner, Judy Curry, Anne Jensen, Jim Maslanik, Linda Mearns, Glen Sheehan, James Syvitsky

Climate variability on the North Slope of Alaska Regional impacts of climate variability Community responses to regional impacts

http://www.colorado.edu/Research/HARC/

Climate variability in the Arctic

Rising temperatures Retreating sea ice Thawing permafrost More frequent and intense storms

Projections of global climate change remain uncertain, but of all the regions of the globe, there is most agreement about change in the Arctic: the warming already observed will continue.

Climate variability: Extreme events

Climate variability is accepted as a fact on the North Slope, because various signs are prominent in the everyday experience of residents.

North Slope residents can and largely have made appropriate responses to impacts on, e.g., subsistence hunting and building foundations.

They are nevertheless very much in doubt about how to minimise the significant vulnerability of people and property to extreme events.

The consensus view is that a study of intense storms in the Barrow area, and the attendant flooding and erosion, is a valuable place to start and a good focus for the coming year for this project.

Regional impacts of intense storms

Credit: Bill Manley and Scott Peckham, INSTAAR

Barrow

Browerville

Credit: Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI

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Sea level height near Barrow, 1978-1985

1978 1980 1982 19841979 1981 1983 1985

Regional impacts of intense storms

Primary impacts buildings, including roofs, foundations roads, boat landings, airfields utilities (phone, power, natural gas, water and sewage) equipment, including trucks, barges, and aircraft

Regional impacts of intense storms

Secondary impacts food, gasoline, and medical supplies pollution from storage depot, sewage lagoon or landfill availability of fauna for subsistence hunting

Case study: Storm of August 2000

Originated over Siberia on August 8th

Record winds at Barrow on August 10th

NWS provided (at most) 3 hours warning

$7.7 million damages

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Polar MM5 Simulation

Case study: Upper level forcing

500 mb Thickness 500 mb Wind

18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at

00 UTC 11th August SLP500 mb Vorticity advection

Case study: Upper level forcing

18 UTC 10th August: Surface cyclone located at

Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat

Residents wondered if the retreating sea ice would shift storms further north, taking them out of harm’s way.

Color shading: Sea ice area during stormBlack line: Sea ice area, August 7 1998 0 20 40 60 80 100%

Case study: Effect of Sea Ice Retreat

Caveat: the treatment of sea ice in Polar MM5 is rather primitive.

Control Ice out

6 UTC 11th August: Cyclone most intense, occlusion follows

Community Responses

Beach Nourishment ProgramThe NSB initiated a beach nourishment program in September 1986, after a storm drew attention to erosion problems. The Dredge Qayuutaq was damaged by the storm of August 10, 2000.

Federally-subsidised Insurance Federally-subsidised insurance for property along the coastline was considered in 1997 or 1998, but was abandoned in the face of federal zoning requirements, high costs, and local opposition.

Army Corps Feasibility Study A $3-4 million feasibility study for storm damage reduction at Barrow was supported by the Mayor ( 2001). The options being considered include adding width to the beach, raising the beach road, and adding a concrete mattress revetment to the seaward slope of the road and bluffs.

Future plans

Description and analysis of climate variability in the Alaskan North Slope coastal region.

Knowledge exchange with local stakeholder groups towards identifying important local impacts of climate change.

Application of models to arrive at plausible scenarios of climate variations. Application of models/data analysis to arrive at plausible impacts and response

scenarios relevant to key environmental issues affecting the coastal zone.

…iterate... Development of a graduate environmental education program integrating the natural

and policy sciences in the Arctic.

When the heavy ice is way out, old timers say “I hope we don’t have that storm.”