towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

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Towards a separa+on of deposit and investment banking ac+vi+es Jan Pieter Krahnen Center for Financial Studies at Goethe University SAFE, CEPR 18 April 2013 Towards the Banking Union: Open Issues Roundtable at College of Europe, Bruges

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Page 1: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Towards  a  separa+on  of  deposit  and  investment  banking  ac+vi+es  

 Jan  Pieter  Krahnen  

Center  for  Financial  Studies  at  Goethe  University    SAFE,  CEPR  

18  April  2013  Towards  the  Banking  Union:  Open  Issues  Roundtable  at  College  of  Europe,  Bruges  

Page 2: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Agenda

I.  LIIKANEN  PROPOSAL  

II.  BACKGROUND  ON  SEPARATION  -  Trading, banking, and risk taking. -  Market making and banking.

III.  ALTERNATIVE  MODELS  OF  SEPARATION  -  Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.

IV.  ISSUES  FOR  DISCUSSION  AND  RESEARCH    

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Page 3: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Proposals  need  a  narra<ve

Crisis  narra+ve  §  Consistent  economic  explana+on  of  why  the  crisis  happened,  and  how  it  

progressed.    §  Based  on  available  academic  and  policy  research,  §  As  well  as  expert  interviews  on  European  bank  business  models.  

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Page 4: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Proposals  and  their  narra<ves US  (Volcker):  Excessive  risk  taking  (through  propietary  trading)    à  Spin  off  prop  trading  from  deposit  taking  UK  (Vickers):  Excessive  risk  taking  (through  

investment  or  commercial  banking)  affects  economy‘s  core  financial  services.    à  Ring-­‐fence  core  services  &  allow  other  banking  ac+vi+es  to  default  (eliminate  TBTF  for  ring-­‐fenced  ins+tu+ons).  

EU  (Liikanen):  •  Systemic  risk  as  the  key  challenge  for  preven+on  and  

interven+on.  •  Overcoming  too-­‐big-­‐to-­‐fail  (TBTF)  à  Two  main  sugges+ons:    

-  Enabling  Resolvability  (despite  complexity)  -  Revitalizing  Market  Discipline  via  true  Private  Liability  

(i.e.  equity  and  debt)   4  

Page 5: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Liikanen  Proposal:  basic  approach  

Facilita+ng  resolvability  of  banking  ins+tu+ons  

No  recourse  to  taxpayers’  money  (pushing  systemic  risk  back  to  tail  of  

distribu+on)  

Mandatory  issuance  of  junior  bank  debt,  held  outside  banking  

system  (First-­‐in-­‐line  debt)  Separa+on  of  trading  ac+vi+es  

from  universal  banking  

Re-­‐introducing  market  discipline  into  banking  system  

Objec+ve  

Strategy  

Instruments  

Result  

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Page 6: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

A  common  misunderstanding  

§  Instruments  to  be  bailed-­‐in  •  Cocos,  Debt  write-­‐down,  With  pre-­‐determined  trigger,  With  pre-­‐

determined  conversion  formula,  respec+ng  seniority  

§  By  some  commentators,  “bail-­‐in  bonds”  were  misread:  •  It  has  been  insinuated  that  newly  created  „bail-­‐in  bonds“  is  the  one  

and  only  instrument  to  be  bailed-­‐in  by  the  supervisor.  •  All  other  debt  instruments,  in  this  interpreta+on,  would  con+nue  to  

benefit  from  a  governmenbt  guarantee.  •  Needless  to  say,  this  puts  our  proposal  upside  down.    

§  ALL  DEBT  IS  BAIL-­‐IN-­‐ABLE,  subject  to  seniority,  and  regardless  of  its  label.    

§  Change  label  now:      à  First-­‐in-­‐line  bonds    à  Anchor  bonds    à  No-­‐mercy  bonds

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Page 7: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Liikanen  Report:  proposals

1)  Mandatory  separa,on  of  proprietary  and  significant  other  trading  ac+vi+es  §  Addi+onal  separa+on  of  other  ac+vi+es  condi+onal  on  recovery  and  

resolu+on  plan.  

2)  Amendments  to  the  use  of  bail-­‐in  instruments  as  a  resolu+on  tool.  

3)  Review  of  capital  requirements  on  trading  assets  and  real  estate  finance  (increasing  risk  weights).  

4)  Strengthen  banks’  governance  and  control  (aligning  incen,ves).  

 

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Page 8: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

First-­‐in-­‐line/Bail-­‐in-­‐ability

Ensuring  bank  resolvability  without  

recourse  to  TPM  

All  banks:  Mandatory  issuance  of  designated  first-­‐in-­‐line  debt.    

May  be  subs+tuted  by  all-­‐equity.  Does  not  imply  other  debt  to  be  bail-­‐out  debt.    

Loss  absorp<on  First-­‐in-­‐line    bonds  are  available  for  write-­‐down  (long-­‐term  investors  can  distribute  bail-­‐in  losses  over  many  periods).    

Or  conversion  into  equity  (coco  bonds),  the  Swiss  example.  

Incidence:  First-­‐in-­‐line  bonds  are  priced  accordingly  (high  coupon  compensates  for  high  expected  loss).  

First-­‐in-­‐line  layer  may  have  tranches  of  different  seniority.  

Credibility:  First-­‐in-­‐line  bond  investors  must  be  non-­‐banks,  limi+ng  contagion  risk  (eliminates  the  rescue  impera+ve  for  the  state).  

May  be  subs+tuted  by  a  1250%  risk  weight.  

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Page 9: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Agenda

I.  LIIKANEN  PROPOSAL  

II.   BACKGROUND  ON  SEPARATION  -  Trading,  banking,  and  risk  taking.    -  Market  making  and  banking.  

III.  ALTERNATIVE  MODELS  OF  SEPARATION  -  Comparing  Volcker,  Vickers,  Liikanen.    

IV.  ISSUES  FOR  DISCUSSION  AND  RESEARCH    

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Page 10: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Theore<cal  perspec<ve  on  banking    and  trading

Boot/Ratnovsky  2012  

Banking  §  Rela+onship  business  §  Not  scalable  §  Safe,  if  lending  book  is  

large  and  diversified.  §  Franchise  value  via  long  

term  pricing.      

Trading  §  Transac+onal  business    §  Scalable,  with  decreasing  

returns  to  scale.      §  High  risk-­‐return  strategy  

possible.  §  No  franchise  value.    

Possible  problems  of  banking  and  trading  interac<on  §  Time  inconsistency    Banks  may  allocate  too  many  resources  to  trading,  undermining  rela+onship  business.  

§  Risk  shiling    Trading  may  be  used  to  increase  risk,  to  the  benefit  of  shareholders.  

   

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Page 11: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Policy  implica<ons  

§  Rela+onship  banks  are  tempted  to  “use  their  balance  sheet”  for  trading  ac+vi+es.  

§  Segrega+ng  resources  within  the  universal  bank  (firewalled  subsidiaries)...  

•  …solves  +me  inconsistency  problem:  because  capital  remains  in  rela+onship  business.  

•  ...solves  risk  shiling  problem:  because  trading  funding  is  fully  risk-­‐sensi+ve.  Not  subsidized.  

§  Volcker,  Vickers,  Liikanen.  •  All  agree  on  a  de-­‐minimis  rule,  •  Because  banking-­‐trading  interac+on  is  beneficial  if  carried  out  

at  moderate  level.

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Page 12: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Interview  evidence  on  banking  and  trading

Tradi<onal  investment  banking  §  Broker-­‐dealer,  ac+ve  in  a  defined  set  of  markets.    E.g.,  M&A,  

corporate  loans,  foreign  exchange  products,  bond  issues,  IPOs.  §  Personal  rela+onships  and  repeat  interac+on  maner.  §  Bank  matches  demand  and  supply.    §  Moderately-­‐sized  balance  sheet  –  leverage  is  a  by-­‐product  of  

the  brokerage  role.  §  Income  source  mostly  fees  and  commissions.  §  If  spread  income,  then  from  prop  trading  desk.  

Modern  investment  banking  (MIB)  §  Upgrading  into  risk-­‐engineered,  high  value-­‐added  services  of  a  

central  counterparty.  §  Real  synergies  bw.  investment  banking  and  commercial/retail  bkg.  §  “Plaporm  model”  

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Page 13: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Financial  produc<on  plaSorm

PlaSorm  explained  §  Plaporm  consits  of  a  wide  array  of  basic  products  (e.g.  op+ons,  swaps,  

CDS,  bonds)  and  processes  (structuring,  syndica+on,  internaliza+on,  neqng,  electronic  crossing  networks,  dynamic  hedging  using  factor  models)    

§  MIB:  from  match-­‐finder  to  provider  of  counter-­‐party  services.  §  Consider  bespoke  financial  product,  e.g.  a  corporate  credit  risk  of  a  

par+cular  quality.  

PlaSorm  business  and  balance  sheet  growth  §  With  capacity  in  place  to  deliver  func+onal  (fin.  eng.)  services,  the  bank  

can  start  to  leverage  its  generic  customer  business.    §  Building  on  order  flow  of  its  customers,  the  bank  can  subs+tute  for  the  

other  side  of  many  transac+ons.    §  It  makes  the  market,  entering  exposures  into  its  trading  book.  §  Balance  sheet  reflects  accumula+on  and  holding  of  inventories  

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Page 14: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

PlaSorm  strategy  and  risk

Professional  literature  §  :“flow  monsters”,  banks  with  large  flows  of  customer  business  that  

facilitate  market  making.  §  Plaporm  costs  are  largely  fixed,  sugges+ng  increasing  returns  to  scale.    §  Flow  monsters  turn  into  stock  monsters,  banks  with  large  balance  sheets.    §  High  leverage  is  by-­‐product  of  market  making,  not  intended  risk  strategy.    §  So  is  risk  taking.  

Implica<ons  §  Not  always  easy  to  prove  the  case  for  market  making  (e.g.  factor  hedging)  

-­‐-­‐>  a  sequence  of  prop  trades.  §  Own  capital  is  at  risk,  although  no  prop  trading.    §  By  connec+ng  financial  ins+tu+ons  to  a  wider  financial  network,  hybrids  

may  contribute  to  systemic  risk  (Chow/Sur+  2011)  

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Page 15: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Cau<ous  policy  implica<ons

On  bans  and  ring-­‐fences  

§  Banning  generic  prop  trading  (Volcker)  •  Does  not  erase  flow  prop  trading,  unless  market  making  is  defined  

very  restric+vely  (i.e.  high-­‐liquidity  markets)  

§  Ring-­‐fencing  commercial  and  retail  banking  (Vickers)  •  Investment  and  commercial  banking  are  intertwined,  even  if  there  

is  no  specula+on.    •  May  affect  MIB  severely,  because  of  exposure  limits  

§  Banning  prop  trading  and  market  making  (Liikanen)    •  May  affect  MIB  severely,  because  of  exposure  limits.  

 

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Page 16: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

I.  LIIKANEN  PROPOSAL  

II.  BACKGROUND  ON  SEPARATION  -  Trading,  banking,  and  risk  taking.    -  Market  making  and  banking.  

III.   ALTERNATIVE  MODELS  OF  SEPARATION  -  Comparing  Volcker,  Vickers,  Liikanen.    

IV.  ISSUES  FOR  DISCUSSION  AND  RESEARCH    

Agenda  

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Page 17: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Overview  

Market  Making  

Underwri+ng  

Selected  banking  ac<vi<es  

Commercial  banking   Investment  banking  

Retail  banking  (services  to  individuals  

and  SMEs)  

Wholesale  banking  (services  to  financial    

ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Asset  &  Wealth  Management  

„Narrow  Investment  Banking“  

(services  to  financial    ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Ancillary  and  proprietary  services  

(services  to  the  bank)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Payment  func+ons  

Investment  services  

Payment  func+ons   Repos  

Hedging  

Prop.  Trading  

Advisory  

Sales  &  Trading  

Trade  finance  

Altern.  investments  (hedge  funds)  

Investments  in  gov.  securi+es  

Prime  brokerage  

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Page 18: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Glass  Steagall  

Market  Making  

Underwri+ng  

Selected  banking  ac<vi<es  

Commercial  banking   Investment  banking  

Wholesale  banking  (services  to  financial    

ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Asset  &  Wealth  Management  

„Narrow  Investment  Banking“  

(services  to  financial    ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Ancillary  and  proprietary  services  

(services  to  the  bank)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Payment  func+ons  

Investment  services  

Payment  func+ons   Repos  

Hedging  

Prop.  Trading  

Advisory  

Sales  &  Trading  

Trade  finance  

Altern.  investments  (hedge  funds)  

Investments  in  gov.  securi+es  

Prime  brokerage  

Permined  

Prohibited  

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Page 19: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Volcker  

Market  Making  

Underwri+ng  

Selected  banking  ac<vi<es  

Commercial  banking   Investment  banking  

Retail  banking  (services  to  individuals  

and  SMEs)  

Wholesale  banking  (services  to  financial    

ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Asset  &  Wealth  Management  

„Narrow  Investment  Banking“  

(services  to  financial    ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Ancillary  and  proprietary  services  

(services  to  the  bank)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Payment  func+ons  

Investment  services  

Payment  func+ons   Repos  

Hedging  

Prop.  Trading  

Advisory  

Sales  &  Trading  

Trade  finance  

Altern.  investments  (hedge  funds)  

Investments  in  gov.  securi+es  

Prime  brokerage  

Permined  

Prohibited  

Permined  under  condi+ons  19  

Page 20: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Volcker  Rule  

§  The  Volcker  Rule  prohibits  any  banking  en,ty  and  its  affiliates  (any  type  of  credit  union  or  insured  depository  ins+tu+on)  from  sponsoring  or  inves,ng  in  any  hedge  fund  or  private  equity  fund,  as  well  as  any  other  type  of  private  investment  fund  (structured,  VC,  real  estate  etc.)  

§  The  Volcker  Rule  also  prohibits  engaging  in  proprietary  trading,  which  is  defined  as  short-­‐term  trading  (the  purchase  and  sale  of  financial  securi+es,  encompassing  all  stocks,  bonds  and  deriva+ves)  with  the  intent  to  profit  from  the  difference  between  the  purchase  and  sales  price  

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Volcker  Rule  -­‐  Exemp<ons  

§  De  minimis  „3  Percent“  rule:  •  Bank  are  allowed  to  invest  up  to  3  percent  of  their  Tier-­‐1  Capital  in  

funds  as  long  as  they  do  not  own  more  than  3  percent  of  each  invested  fund  

§  Exempted  from  proprietary  trading  prohibi+ons  are:  •  Municipal  Bonds  •  Market  making,  clearing  and  underwri+ng  ac+vi+es  •  Hedging  and  liquidity  management  ac+vi+es  •  Repos  •  Any  trades  conducted  on  behalf  of  customers  

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Volcker  Rule  –  Default    Rule  and  Compliance  

§  All  affected  banks  must  file  reports  with  their  regulatory  authori+es  to  show  compliance  with  the  rules  

§  All  permined  ac+vi+es  under  Volcker  are  subject  to  a  default  prohibi+on  rule:  none  of  the  permined  ac+vi+es  are  allowed  if    •  They  are  subject  to  excessive  risk-­‐taking  (more  than  would  be  

appropriate  to  provide  financial  intermedia+on  services)  •  Include  compensa+on  systems  which  primarily  reward  proprietary  

risk-­‐taking  •  The  trading  ac+vi+es  have  the  bank  pay  more  fees  than  they  obtain  

through  the  ac+vi+es  •  The  trading  ac+vi+es  show  high  earnings  vola+lity  and  earn  either  

very  small  or  very  large  revenues  per  unit  of  risk  taken  

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Volcker  Rule  -­‐  Challenges  

§  Permined  versus  prohibited  ac+vi+es?  •  What  is  „hedging“?    •  When  is  prop  trade  a  leg  in  a  market  making  transac+on,  when  is  it  not?  

§  What  are  effects  on  market  liquidity,  risk  premia?    •  Thakor  (2011)  predicts  drop  in  liquidity  for  smaller  markets,  increase  in  

cost  of  capital,  lower  real  investment,  less  efficient  risk  management.    

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Page 24: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Vickers  

Market  Making  

Underwri+ng  

Selected  banking  ac<vi<es  

Commercial  banking   Investment  banking  

Retail  banking  (services  to  individuals  

and  SMEs)  

Wholesale  banking  (services  to  financial    

ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Asset  &  Wealth  Management  

„Narrow  Investment  Banking“  

(services  to  financial    ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Ancillary  and  proprietary  services  

(services  to  the  bank)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Payment  func+ons  

Investment  services  

Payment  func+ons   Repos  

Hedging  

Prop.  Trading  

Advisory  

Sales  &  Trading  

Trade  finance  

Altern.  investments  (hedge  funds)  

Investments  in  gov.  securi+es  

Prime  brokerage  

Permined  

Prohibited  for  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty,  but  allowed  for  the    non-­‐ring-­‐fenced  en+ty.  

Permined  for  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  as  service  to  corporates,  but  prohibited  as  service  to  financial  ins+tu+ons.  

Services  to  non-­‐European  customers  

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Vickers  –  General  idea  

§  The  commission’s  recommenda+ons  on  structural  reform  are  to  partly  separate  UK  retail  banking  services  from  global  wholesale  and  investment  banking  services,  the  so-­‐called  “retail  ring-­‐fencing”.    

§  The  idea  behind  this  separa+on  is  to  credibly  restrict  public  guarantees  to  ring-­‐fenced  banks  that  perform  vital  banking  services,  and  thereby  to  take  away  incen+ves  for  excessive  risk-­‐taking  of  non-­‐ring-­‐fenced  banks.    •  Ring-­‐fencing  would  help  “insulate  UK  retail  banking  from  global  shocks”  

and  ensure  the  supply  of  credit  in  the  economy.    •  “Retail  deposits  –  now  around  £  1  trillion  –  would  fund  loans  to  

households  and  businesses  in  the  domes+c  economy,  not  investment  banking.”  (Vickers,  2010).  

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Vickers  –  Details  of  the  ring-­‐fence  

§  Mandated  services  for  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty:  Taking  of  deposits  from  and  providing  overdrals  to  individuals  and  SMEs  

§  Prohibited  services  for  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty:  •  Investment  banking  ac+vi+es  such  as  deriva+ves,  debt  and  equity  

underwri+ng  and  inves+ng  and  trading  in  securi+es.    •  Commercial  banking  services  resul+ng  in  exposures  to  financial  companies.  •  Banking  services  to  non-­‐European  customers  

§  The  ring-­‐fence  is  flexible  in  allowing  banks  to  place  other  ac+vi+es  such  as  lending  to  large  domes+c  corporate  and  trade  finance  inside  or  outside  the  ring-­‐fence.  

§  Permined  ancillary  services  for  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty:  •  Ac+vi+es  necessary  for  the  efficient  provision  of  mandated  services,  i.e.,  

typical  treasury  func+ons  such  as  risk  management  (e.g.,  interest  rate  hedging  through  deriva+ves)  and  liquidity  management.  

§  Specific  pruden+al  safeguards  of  the  ring-­‐fenced  bank  •  More  equity,  stricter  leverage  limits,  bail-­‐in,  depositor  preference,  primary  

loss  absorbing  capacity  …    

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Vickers  –  Links  between  fenced  and  non-­‐fenced  en<ty  

§  Ring-­‐fenced  banks  should  be  self-­‐standing  or  subsidiary  companies  in  wider  banking  groups.  

§  Legal  and  opera+onal  links  •  The  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  should  ensure  that  it  can  be  isolated  from  

the  group  in  a  few  days  and  can  con+nue  to  provide  services.  

§  Economic  links  •  The  ring-­‐fenced  bank's  rela+ons  with  other  parts  of  the  group  

should  take  place  on  a  third  party  basis.  •  The  ring-­‐fenced  bank  should  not  be  dependent  on  the  group's  

con+nued  financial  health  for  its  solvency  or  liquidity.  

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Vickers  –  no  “de  minimis”  rule  

§  In  the  Vickers  Report,  no  “de  minimis”  limit  was  recommended  under  which  the  ring-­‐fencing  requirement  would  not  apply.    •  “Any  fixed  costs  associated  with  ring-­‐fencing  would  be  propor+onately  

greater  for  smaller  banks.  However,  complex  small  banks  could  s+ll  pose  significant  resolu+on  challenges,  an  exemp+on  could  confuse  consumers,  and  the  risk  of  contagion  from  financial  markets  to  the  retail  banking  system  would  remain  if  there  were  a  large  number  of  small  banks  opera+ng  below  some  de  minimis  limit.“  (Vickers  Final  Report,  p.  39)  

§  However,  the  UK  Government  Response  states  that  the  case  for  “de  minimis”  exemp+ons  from  ring-­‐fencing,  in  par+cular  for  very  small  firms,  should  be  reviewed.  

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Vickers  -­‐  Challenges  

§  Implementa+on  challenges  similar  to  those  from  the  Volcker  rule  may  emerge  

§  Clarify  which  risk-­‐management  ac+vi+es  are  allowed  within  the  ring-­‐fence.  

§  To  the  degree  that  risk-­‐management  of  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  is  done  via  the  non-­‐ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  of  the  bank,  this  creates  contagion  risk.  

§  A  bank  holding  structure  with  a  ring-­‐fenced  and  a  non-­‐ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  may  create  incen+ves  to  operate  the  ring-­‐fenced  en+ty  at  minimum  capital  ra+os.  

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Liikanen  

Underwri+ng  

Selected  banking  ac<vi<es  

Commercial  banking   Investment  banking  

Retail  banking  (services  to  individuals  

and  SMEs)  

Wholesale  banking  (services  to  financial    

ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Asset  &  Wealth  Management  

„Narrow  Investment  Banking“  

(services  to  financial    ins<tu<ons  and  corporates)  

Ancillary  and  proprietary  services  

(services  to  the  bank)  

Overdrals  &  Lending  

Deposit  taking  

Payment  func+ons  

Investment  services  

Payment  func+ons   Repos  

Advisory  

Sales  &  Trading  

Trade  finance  

Investments  in  gov.  securi+es  

permined  

   prohibited  for  concerned  party  (i.e.  beyond  de-­‐minimis)  30  

Market  Making  

Prime  brokerage  

Hedging  

Prop.  Trading  

Altern.  Investments  (hedge  funds)  

Page 31: Towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities

Summary  of  Recommenda<ons

Separa+on  of  trading  (prop  trading  and  

market  making)  

Separate  legal  en+ty  (broker-­‐dealer),  holding  structure,  restricted  joint  liability,  exposure  limits  apply.  

Stand-­‐alone  funding  of  trading  ac+vity  avoids  implicit  subsidiza+on.    

Resolu+on  is  facilitated.  

Generous  de  minimis  rule  applies  

Universal  banking  model  (commercial  +  investment)  remains  largely  untouched.    

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De-­‐minimis  rule    

Mandatory  Separa+on  only  if  the  concerned  ac+vi+es  amount  to  a  significant  share  of  a  bank  business.  

Assessment  to  be  completed  in  two  stages:  

1)  Iden+fy  banks  whose  assets  “held  for  trading  “  and  “available  for  sale”  exceed:  a.  a  rela+ve  threshold  of  15-­‐25%  of  total  assets;    or  b.  an  absolute  threshold  of  EUR  100bn  

3)  Supervisors  decide  case-­‐by-­‐case  on  the  basis  of  the  assets  to  which  the  separa+on  requirement  applies.      The  threshold  is  to  be  calibrated  by  the  Commission.  

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Other  features    

§  Higher  capital  charges  were  discussed  as  an  alterna+ve  to  separa+on.  §  Broker-­‐dealer  and  universal  bank  under  one  holding.  §  Broker-­‐dealer  has  own  funding,  equity  and  debt  §  Cross  guarantees  uni-­‐direc+onal  (from  TB  to  UB,  but  not  reverse)  §  Prop  trading  not  prohibited  for  holding  company  (at  TB,  not  at  UB)  §  Two  roads  to  separa+on    

•  Avenue  1:  first,  higher  capital  buffer  (not  risk-­‐weighted)  for  banks  with  large  trading  book.  Then  RRP.  Second,  if  RRP  not  accepted  by  supervisor,  separa+on  is  mandatory.  

•  Avenue  2:  Immediate  separa+on,  upon  crossing  a  defined  threshold  (e.g.,  trading  assets)  

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Proposal  by  HLEG  Banking  Group  in  comparison  

pro

Prop  trading+   Market  making  

Investment  and  commercial  banking  (prop  trading,  mkt  making,  large  corporate  lending)  

”Volcker  Banking  Group”  

”Vickers  Banking  Group”  

”HLEG  Banking  Group”  

Investment  and  commercial    banking  

Prop  trading+  Mkt  making  

Investment  and  commercial  banking  

Swaps  push-­‐out  

Retail  banking  with  higher  capital  requirements  

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I.  LIIKANEN  PROPOSAL  

II.  BACKGROUND  ON  SEPARATION  -  Trading,  banking,  and  risk  taking.    -  Market  making  and  banking.  

III.  ALTERNATIVE  MODELS  OF  SEPARATION  -  Comparing  Volcker,  Vickers,  Liikanen.    

IV.  ISSUES  FOR  DISCUSSION  AND  RESEARCH    

Agenda  

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What  will  be  the  market  response?  

§  Market  response  is  a  general  equilibrium  issue.  

§  Emergence  of  broker-­‐dealers  –  as  independent  arms  of  Sifis.  •  Need  to  fulfill  capital  requirements  as  well,  including  bail-­‐in  (first-­‐in-­‐

line)  debt.    

§  Will  smaller  ins+tu+ons  (below-­‐de-­‐minimis)  grow  their  trading  business,  taking  over  from  the  broker-­‐dealers?  •  Probably  not,  assuming  fixed  costs  in  trading  to  be  significant.  •  Rather,  and  for  the  same  reason,  broker-­‐dealers  may  take  over  

business  from  smaller  ins+tu+ons.    

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Will  there  be  less  liquidity?  

§  What  happens  to  plaporm  strategy  of  “flow  monsters”?    •  Possibly,  financial  engineering  advisory  will  con+nue  as  before,  now  

provided  by  the  broker-­‐dealer,  only  execu+on  of  resul+ng  net  posi+ons  is  outsourced  to  one/more  broker-­‐dealers.    

•  Thus,  conceivably,  plaporm  strategy  can  be  largely  maintained.  •  However,  broker-­‐dealer  has  to  pay  funding  costs  commensurate  with  

its  stand-­‐alone  risk.  §  Profitability  of  market  making-­‐cum-­‐prop  trading  likely  to  shrink  

•  (General  equilibrium  adjustment  is  complicated  to  forecast,  however)  

§   Effect  on  trading  volume  and  liquidity  •  Thakor  (US  Chamber  of  Commerce,  2011):  Volcker  rule  will  reduce  

liquidity,  increase  spreads,  lower  credit  volume,  lower  economic  growth.  

•  Does  not  consider  general  equilibrium  repercussions,  e.g.  new  entrants  (broker-­‐dealers),  new  price  level,  new  market  models.  

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Will  there  be  less  risk  transfer?  

§  Securi+za+on  of  the  loan  book  was  the  early  success  story  of  a  coopera+on  between  commercial  and  investment  banking.  Will  this  be  made  impossible?    

§  Probably  no  material  change,  if  one  allows  structuring  exper+se  to  be  outsourced  (to  the  ring-­‐fenced  trading  house,  for  instance).    

§  Consider  the  joint  effect  of  separa+on  and  bail-­‐in  debt  issues.  •  Bail-­‐in  debt  transfers  the  most  junior  debt  layer  in  the  bank  balance  

sheet  to  private  investors  outside  the  banking  system,  making  it  more  resilient  against  shocks.  

•  More  risk  transfer  than  before  the  crisis  likely.  

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What  about  2-­‐<er  banking  model?  (1)  

§  Money  center  banking  •  Within-­‐group  borrowing  and  lending  not  affected  by  separa+on.  •  Single  counterparty  exposure  limits  apply.  

-  Pushes  Groups  to  consolidate  (as  within-­‐Group  exposures  do  no  longer  maner).  

§  Central  deriva+ves  and  trading  facility  of  the  Group  •  Within  exposure  limits:  unaffected  by  separa+on  •  Beyond  exposure  limits:    exact  same  transac+ons  executed  through  

other  market  par+cipants    -  ‘Other  market  par+cipant’  could  be  a  white-­‐labeling,  compe+ng  bank.  -  ‘Other  market  par+cipant’  may  be  another  daughter,  in  or  out  of  mul+  bank  holding  

company  (no  longer  in  US:  Intermediate  Holding  Company  under  DFA  for  Foreign  Banks).  

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What  about  2-­‐<er  banking  model?  (2)  

§  Effect  of  separa+on  regula+on  on  business  model  •  Level  1  bank  (retail):  no  material  effect,  just  different  provider  in  

market.  •  Level  2  bank  (wholesale):  reduced  transac+on  volume  with  Group  

members,  but  poten+al  for  increased  transac+on  volume  with  members  of  other  Groups  (gen.  eq.  effect)  

§  Effect  of  bail-­‐in  regula+on  on  business  model  •  Depends  on  Group  status  (consolidated  or  not)  

-  If  fully  consolidated:  bail-­‐in  debt  requirement  applies  at  Group  level  only.    -  If  not  fully  consolidated:  bail-­‐in  debt  requirement  applies  at  the  individual  

bank  level  -­‐-­‐>  absolute  volume  increases  (double-­‐coun+ng).  -  If  not  fully  consolidated:  Group-­‐internal  deposit  insurance  schemes    are  

affected  as  well,  if  the  scheme  covers  all  liabili+es,  as  in  the  case  of  a  ‘Ins+tutssicherung’  (savings  banks,  Germany).  

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Trading  and  banking  -­‐  a  research  request  

§  Not  much  empirical  work  exists  on  the  role  of  securi+es  and  deriva+ves  trading  in  today’s  banking  markets.  

•  Interviews  are  not  enough.  •  Clinical  studies  needed:  understanding  the  business  model  of  large,  

interna+onal  banks,  and  the  role  played  by  trading  ac+vi+es  (plaporm  strategy)  

•  More  generally,  more  should  be  known  about  the  welfare  effect  of  increased  trading  in  world  capital  markets.  The  risk  we  have  seen  –  where  is  the  benefit?  

•  What  are  the  expected  costs  of  curtailing  trading  for  society?  

§  What  are  investor  incen+ves  when  banks  rely  on  mul+-­‐+er  capital  structure  (as  opposed  to  simple  debt-­‐equity  schemes)?  

§  Similarly,  understand  role  of  interbank  secured  (repo)  and  unsecured  market.  

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I.  LIIKANEN  PROPOSAL  

II.  BACKGROUND  ON  SEPARATION  -  Trading,  banking,  and  risk  taking.    -  Market  making  and  banking.  

III.  ALTERNATIVE  MODELS  OF  SEPARATION  -  Comparing  Volcker,  Vickers,  Liikanen.    

IV.  ISSUES  FOR  DISCUSSION  AND  RESEARCH    

V.   APPENDIX  

Agenda  

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Acharya,  V.,  Pedersen,  L.H.,  Philippon,  T.  and  Richardson,  M.  (2010),  “Measuring  Systemic  Risk”,  unpublished  working  paper  

Acharya,  V.,  Schnabl,  P.  and  Suarez,  G.  (2011),  "Securi+za+on  Without  Risk  Transfer",  forthcoming,  J.  Financial  Econ.  

Acharya,  V.,  Shin,  H.S.  and  Yorulmazer,  T.  (2011),  "Fire-­‐sale  FDI",  forthcoming,  Korean  Economic  Review  

Adma<,  A.,  DeMarzo,  P.,  Hellwig,  M.,  Pfleiderer,  P.  (2011),  “Fallacies,  irrelevant  facts,  and  myths  in  the  discussion  of  capital  regula+on:  why  bank  equity  is  not  expensive”,  Stanford  GSB  working  paper.  

Adrian,  T.  and  Shin,  H.S.  (2010),  “Liquidity  and  Leverage”,  Federal  Reserve  Bank  of  New  York  Staff  Reports  

Boot,  A.  and  L.  Ratnovsky  (2012),  “Banking  and  trading”,  Working  paper,  University  of  Amsterdam.  

Borio,  C.  (2006),  “Monetary  and  pruden+al  policies  at  a  crossroads?  New  challenges  in  the  new  century”,  BIS  Working  Papers,  No  216  

Bruche,  M.  and  Suarez,  J.  (2011),  “Deposit  insurance  and  money  market  freezes”,  J.  of  Monetary  Econ.  57,  45–61  

Brunnermeier,  M.K.,  (2009),  “Deciphering  the  Liquidity  and  Credit  Crunch  2007–2008”,  Journal  of  Economic  Perspec+ves,    Volume  23,  Number  1,  p  77–100  

Brunnermeier,  M.K.,  Dong,  G.  and  Palia,  D.  (2012),  “Banks’  Non-­‐Interest  Income  and  Systemic  Risk”,  unpublished  working  paper  

Demirgüç-­‐Kunt,  A.  and  Huizinga,  H.  (2010),  “Bank  ac+vity  and  funding  strategies:  The  impact  on  risk  and  returns”,    Journal  of  Financial  Economics  98,  p.  626–650  

Duffie,  D.  (2011),  “Systemic  Risk  Exposures:  A  10  by  10  by  10  Approach”,  NBER  WORKING  PAPER  SERIES,  Working  Paper  17281  

Fahlenbrach,  R.  and  Stulz,  R.M.  (2011),  “Bank  CEO  incen+ves  and  the  credit  crisis”,  Journal  of  Financial  Economics  99,  p.  11–26  

References  ,  part  1  

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French,  K.R.,  Baily,  M.N.,  Campbell,  J.Y.,  Cochrane,  J.H.,  Diamond,  D.W.,  Duffie,  D.,  Kashyap,  A.K.,  Mishkin,  F.S.,  Rajan,  R.G.,  Scharfstein,  D.S.,  Shiller,  R.J.,  Shin,  H.S.,  Slaughter,  M.J.,  Stein,  J.C.  and  Stulz,  R.M.  (2010),  “The  Squam  Lake  Report  -­‐  Fixing  the  Financial  System”,  Princeton  University  Press:  Princeton  and  Oxfor    

Gorton,  G.  (2012),  “Misunderstanding  Financial  Crises:  Why  We  Didn’t  See  One  Coming”,  Oxford  University  Press,  forthcoming  

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References  ,  part  2  

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