towards a separation of deposit and investment banking activities
TRANSCRIPT
Towards a separa+on of deposit and investment banking ac+vi+es
Jan Pieter Krahnen
Center for Financial Studies at Goethe University SAFE, CEPR
18 April 2013 Towards the Banking Union: Open Issues Roundtable at College of Europe, Bruges
Agenda
I. LIIKANEN PROPOSAL
II. BACKGROUND ON SEPARATION - Trading, banking, and risk taking. - Market making and banking.
III. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF SEPARATION - Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.
IV. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH
2
Proposals need a narra<ve
Crisis narra+ve § Consistent economic explana+on of why the crisis happened, and how it
progressed. § Based on available academic and policy research, § As well as expert interviews on European bank business models.
3
Proposals and their narra<ves US (Volcker): Excessive risk taking (through propietary trading) à Spin off prop trading from deposit taking UK (Vickers): Excessive risk taking (through
investment or commercial banking) affects economy‘s core financial services. à Ring-‐fence core services & allow other banking ac+vi+es to default (eliminate TBTF for ring-‐fenced ins+tu+ons).
EU (Liikanen): • Systemic risk as the key challenge for preven+on and
interven+on. • Overcoming too-‐big-‐to-‐fail (TBTF) à Two main sugges+ons:
- Enabling Resolvability (despite complexity) - Revitalizing Market Discipline via true Private Liability
(i.e. equity and debt) 4
Liikanen Proposal: basic approach
Facilita+ng resolvability of banking ins+tu+ons
No recourse to taxpayers’ money (pushing systemic risk back to tail of
distribu+on)
Mandatory issuance of junior bank debt, held outside banking
system (First-‐in-‐line debt) Separa+on of trading ac+vi+es
from universal banking
Re-‐introducing market discipline into banking system
Objec+ve
Strategy
Instruments
Result
5
A common misunderstanding
§ Instruments to be bailed-‐in • Cocos, Debt write-‐down, With pre-‐determined trigger, With pre-‐
determined conversion formula, respec+ng seniority
§ By some commentators, “bail-‐in bonds” were misread: • It has been insinuated that newly created „bail-‐in bonds“ is the one
and only instrument to be bailed-‐in by the supervisor. • All other debt instruments, in this interpreta+on, would con+nue to
benefit from a governmenbt guarantee. • Needless to say, this puts our proposal upside down.
§ ALL DEBT IS BAIL-‐IN-‐ABLE, subject to seniority, and regardless of its label.
§ Change label now: à First-‐in-‐line bonds à Anchor bonds à No-‐mercy bonds
6
Liikanen Report: proposals
1) Mandatory separa,on of proprietary and significant other trading ac+vi+es § Addi+onal separa+on of other ac+vi+es condi+onal on recovery and
resolu+on plan.
2) Amendments to the use of bail-‐in instruments as a resolu+on tool.
3) Review of capital requirements on trading assets and real estate finance (increasing risk weights).
4) Strengthen banks’ governance and control (aligning incen,ves).
7
First-‐in-‐line/Bail-‐in-‐ability
Ensuring bank resolvability without
recourse to TPM
All banks: Mandatory issuance of designated first-‐in-‐line debt.
May be subs+tuted by all-‐equity. Does not imply other debt to be bail-‐out debt.
Loss absorp<on First-‐in-‐line bonds are available for write-‐down (long-‐term investors can distribute bail-‐in losses over many periods).
Or conversion into equity (coco bonds), the Swiss example.
Incidence: First-‐in-‐line bonds are priced accordingly (high coupon compensates for high expected loss).
First-‐in-‐line layer may have tranches of different seniority.
Credibility: First-‐in-‐line bond investors must be non-‐banks, limi+ng contagion risk (eliminates the rescue impera+ve for the state).
May be subs+tuted by a 1250% risk weight.
8
Agenda
I. LIIKANEN PROPOSAL
II. BACKGROUND ON SEPARATION - Trading, banking, and risk taking. - Market making and banking.
III. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF SEPARATION - Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.
IV. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH
9
Theore<cal perspec<ve on banking and trading
Boot/Ratnovsky 2012
Banking § Rela+onship business § Not scalable § Safe, if lending book is
large and diversified. § Franchise value via long
term pricing.
Trading § Transac+onal business § Scalable, with decreasing
returns to scale. § High risk-‐return strategy
possible. § No franchise value.
Possible problems of banking and trading interac<on § Time inconsistency Banks may allocate too many resources to trading, undermining rela+onship business.
§ Risk shiling Trading may be used to increase risk, to the benefit of shareholders.
10
Policy implica<ons
§ Rela+onship banks are tempted to “use their balance sheet” for trading ac+vi+es.
§ Segrega+ng resources within the universal bank (firewalled subsidiaries)...
• …solves +me inconsistency problem: because capital remains in rela+onship business.
• ...solves risk shiling problem: because trading funding is fully risk-‐sensi+ve. Not subsidized.
§ Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen. • All agree on a de-‐minimis rule, • Because banking-‐trading interac+on is beneficial if carried out
at moderate level.
11
Interview evidence on banking and trading
Tradi<onal investment banking § Broker-‐dealer, ac+ve in a defined set of markets. E.g., M&A,
corporate loans, foreign exchange products, bond issues, IPOs. § Personal rela+onships and repeat interac+on maner. § Bank matches demand and supply. § Moderately-‐sized balance sheet – leverage is a by-‐product of
the brokerage role. § Income source mostly fees and commissions. § If spread income, then from prop trading desk.
Modern investment banking (MIB) § Upgrading into risk-‐engineered, high value-‐added services of a
central counterparty. § Real synergies bw. investment banking and commercial/retail bkg. § “Plaporm model”
12
Financial produc<on plaSorm
PlaSorm explained § Plaporm consits of a wide array of basic products (e.g. op+ons, swaps,
CDS, bonds) and processes (structuring, syndica+on, internaliza+on, neqng, electronic crossing networks, dynamic hedging using factor models)
§ MIB: from match-‐finder to provider of counter-‐party services. § Consider bespoke financial product, e.g. a corporate credit risk of a
par+cular quality.
PlaSorm business and balance sheet growth § With capacity in place to deliver func+onal (fin. eng.) services, the bank
can start to leverage its generic customer business. § Building on order flow of its customers, the bank can subs+tute for the
other side of many transac+ons. § It makes the market, entering exposures into its trading book. § Balance sheet reflects accumula+on and holding of inventories
13
PlaSorm strategy and risk
Professional literature § :“flow monsters”, banks with large flows of customer business that
facilitate market making. § Plaporm costs are largely fixed, sugges+ng increasing returns to scale. § Flow monsters turn into stock monsters, banks with large balance sheets. § High leverage is by-‐product of market making, not intended risk strategy. § So is risk taking.
Implica<ons § Not always easy to prove the case for market making (e.g. factor hedging)
-‐-‐> a sequence of prop trades. § Own capital is at risk, although no prop trading. § By connec+ng financial ins+tu+ons to a wider financial network, hybrids
may contribute to systemic risk (Chow/Sur+ 2011)
14
Cau<ous policy implica<ons
On bans and ring-‐fences
§ Banning generic prop trading (Volcker) • Does not erase flow prop trading, unless market making is defined
very restric+vely (i.e. high-‐liquidity markets)
§ Ring-‐fencing commercial and retail banking (Vickers) • Investment and commercial banking are intertwined, even if there
is no specula+on. • May affect MIB severely, because of exposure limits
§ Banning prop trading and market making (Liikanen) • May affect MIB severely, because of exposure limits.
15
I. LIIKANEN PROPOSAL
II. BACKGROUND ON SEPARATION - Trading, banking, and risk taking. - Market making and banking.
III. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF SEPARATION - Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.
IV. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH
Agenda
16
Overview
Market Making
Underwri+ng
Selected banking ac<vi<es
Commercial banking Investment banking
Retail banking (services to individuals
and SMEs)
Wholesale banking (services to financial
ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Asset & Wealth Management
„Narrow Investment Banking“
(services to financial ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Ancillary and proprietary services
(services to the bank)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Payment func+ons
Investment services
Payment func+ons Repos
Hedging
Prop. Trading
Advisory
Sales & Trading
Trade finance
Altern. investments (hedge funds)
Investments in gov. securi+es
Prime brokerage
17
Glass Steagall
Market Making
Underwri+ng
Selected banking ac<vi<es
Commercial banking Investment banking
Wholesale banking (services to financial
ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Asset & Wealth Management
„Narrow Investment Banking“
(services to financial ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Ancillary and proprietary services
(services to the bank)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Payment func+ons
Investment services
Payment func+ons Repos
Hedging
Prop. Trading
Advisory
Sales & Trading
Trade finance
Altern. investments (hedge funds)
Investments in gov. securi+es
Prime brokerage
Permined
Prohibited
18
Volcker
Market Making
Underwri+ng
Selected banking ac<vi<es
Commercial banking Investment banking
Retail banking (services to individuals
and SMEs)
Wholesale banking (services to financial
ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Asset & Wealth Management
„Narrow Investment Banking“
(services to financial ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Ancillary and proprietary services
(services to the bank)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Payment func+ons
Investment services
Payment func+ons Repos
Hedging
Prop. Trading
Advisory
Sales & Trading
Trade finance
Altern. investments (hedge funds)
Investments in gov. securi+es
Prime brokerage
Permined
Prohibited
Permined under condi+ons 19
Volcker Rule
§ The Volcker Rule prohibits any banking en,ty and its affiliates (any type of credit union or insured depository ins+tu+on) from sponsoring or inves,ng in any hedge fund or private equity fund, as well as any other type of private investment fund (structured, VC, real estate etc.)
§ The Volcker Rule also prohibits engaging in proprietary trading, which is defined as short-‐term trading (the purchase and sale of financial securi+es, encompassing all stocks, bonds and deriva+ves) with the intent to profit from the difference between the purchase and sales price
20
Volcker Rule -‐ Exemp<ons
§ De minimis „3 Percent“ rule: • Bank are allowed to invest up to 3 percent of their Tier-‐1 Capital in
funds as long as they do not own more than 3 percent of each invested fund
§ Exempted from proprietary trading prohibi+ons are: • Municipal Bonds • Market making, clearing and underwri+ng ac+vi+es • Hedging and liquidity management ac+vi+es • Repos • Any trades conducted on behalf of customers
21
Volcker Rule – Default Rule and Compliance
§ All affected banks must file reports with their regulatory authori+es to show compliance with the rules
§ All permined ac+vi+es under Volcker are subject to a default prohibi+on rule: none of the permined ac+vi+es are allowed if • They are subject to excessive risk-‐taking (more than would be
appropriate to provide financial intermedia+on services) • Include compensa+on systems which primarily reward proprietary
risk-‐taking • The trading ac+vi+es have the bank pay more fees than they obtain
through the ac+vi+es • The trading ac+vi+es show high earnings vola+lity and earn either
very small or very large revenues per unit of risk taken
22
Volcker Rule -‐ Challenges
§ Permined versus prohibited ac+vi+es? • What is „hedging“? • When is prop trade a leg in a market making transac+on, when is it not?
§ What are effects on market liquidity, risk premia? • Thakor (2011) predicts drop in liquidity for smaller markets, increase in
cost of capital, lower real investment, less efficient risk management.
23
Vickers
Market Making
Underwri+ng
Selected banking ac<vi<es
Commercial banking Investment banking
Retail banking (services to individuals
and SMEs)
Wholesale banking (services to financial
ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Asset & Wealth Management
„Narrow Investment Banking“
(services to financial ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Ancillary and proprietary services
(services to the bank)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Payment func+ons
Investment services
Payment func+ons Repos
Hedging
Prop. Trading
Advisory
Sales & Trading
Trade finance
Altern. investments (hedge funds)
Investments in gov. securi+es
Prime brokerage
Permined
Prohibited for the ring-‐fenced en+ty, but allowed for the non-‐ring-‐fenced en+ty.
Permined for the ring-‐fenced en+ty as service to corporates, but prohibited as service to financial ins+tu+ons.
Services to non-‐European customers
24
Vickers – General idea
§ The commission’s recommenda+ons on structural reform are to partly separate UK retail banking services from global wholesale and investment banking services, the so-‐called “retail ring-‐fencing”.
§ The idea behind this separa+on is to credibly restrict public guarantees to ring-‐fenced banks that perform vital banking services, and thereby to take away incen+ves for excessive risk-‐taking of non-‐ring-‐fenced banks. • Ring-‐fencing would help “insulate UK retail banking from global shocks”
and ensure the supply of credit in the economy. • “Retail deposits – now around £ 1 trillion – would fund loans to
households and businesses in the domes+c economy, not investment banking.” (Vickers, 2010).
25
Vickers – Details of the ring-‐fence
§ Mandated services for the ring-‐fenced en+ty: Taking of deposits from and providing overdrals to individuals and SMEs
§ Prohibited services for the ring-‐fenced en+ty: • Investment banking ac+vi+es such as deriva+ves, debt and equity
underwri+ng and inves+ng and trading in securi+es. • Commercial banking services resul+ng in exposures to financial companies. • Banking services to non-‐European customers
§ The ring-‐fence is flexible in allowing banks to place other ac+vi+es such as lending to large domes+c corporate and trade finance inside or outside the ring-‐fence.
§ Permined ancillary services for the ring-‐fenced en+ty: • Ac+vi+es necessary for the efficient provision of mandated services, i.e.,
typical treasury func+ons such as risk management (e.g., interest rate hedging through deriva+ves) and liquidity management.
§ Specific pruden+al safeguards of the ring-‐fenced bank • More equity, stricter leverage limits, bail-‐in, depositor preference, primary
loss absorbing capacity …
26
Vickers – Links between fenced and non-‐fenced en<ty
§ Ring-‐fenced banks should be self-‐standing or subsidiary companies in wider banking groups.
§ Legal and opera+onal links • The ring-‐fenced en+ty should ensure that it can be isolated from
the group in a few days and can con+nue to provide services.
§ Economic links • The ring-‐fenced bank's rela+ons with other parts of the group
should take place on a third party basis. • The ring-‐fenced bank should not be dependent on the group's
con+nued financial health for its solvency or liquidity.
27
Vickers – no “de minimis” rule
§ In the Vickers Report, no “de minimis” limit was recommended under which the ring-‐fencing requirement would not apply. • “Any fixed costs associated with ring-‐fencing would be propor+onately
greater for smaller banks. However, complex small banks could s+ll pose significant resolu+on challenges, an exemp+on could confuse consumers, and the risk of contagion from financial markets to the retail banking system would remain if there were a large number of small banks opera+ng below some de minimis limit.“ (Vickers Final Report, p. 39)
§ However, the UK Government Response states that the case for “de minimis” exemp+ons from ring-‐fencing, in par+cular for very small firms, should be reviewed.
28
Vickers -‐ Challenges
§ Implementa+on challenges similar to those from the Volcker rule may emerge
§ Clarify which risk-‐management ac+vi+es are allowed within the ring-‐fence.
§ To the degree that risk-‐management of the ring-‐fenced en+ty is done via the non-‐ring-‐fenced en+ty of the bank, this creates contagion risk.
§ A bank holding structure with a ring-‐fenced and a non-‐ring-‐fenced en+ty may create incen+ves to operate the ring-‐fenced en+ty at minimum capital ra+os.
29
Liikanen
Underwri+ng
Selected banking ac<vi<es
Commercial banking Investment banking
Retail banking (services to individuals
and SMEs)
Wholesale banking (services to financial
ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Asset & Wealth Management
„Narrow Investment Banking“
(services to financial ins<tu<ons and corporates)
Ancillary and proprietary services
(services to the bank)
Overdrals & Lending
Deposit taking
Payment func+ons
Investment services
Payment func+ons Repos
Advisory
Sales & Trading
Trade finance
Investments in gov. securi+es
permined
prohibited for concerned party (i.e. beyond de-‐minimis) 30
Market Making
Prime brokerage
Hedging
Prop. Trading
Altern. Investments (hedge funds)
Summary of Recommenda<ons
Separa+on of trading (prop trading and
market making)
Separate legal en+ty (broker-‐dealer), holding structure, restricted joint liability, exposure limits apply.
Stand-‐alone funding of trading ac+vity avoids implicit subsidiza+on.
Resolu+on is facilitated.
Generous de minimis rule applies
Universal banking model (commercial + investment) remains largely untouched.
31
De-‐minimis rule
Mandatory Separa+on only if the concerned ac+vi+es amount to a significant share of a bank business.
Assessment to be completed in two stages:
1) Iden+fy banks whose assets “held for trading “ and “available for sale” exceed: a. a rela+ve threshold of 15-‐25% of total assets; or b. an absolute threshold of EUR 100bn
3) Supervisors decide case-‐by-‐case on the basis of the assets to which the separa+on requirement applies. The threshold is to be calibrated by the Commission.
32
Other features
§ Higher capital charges were discussed as an alterna+ve to separa+on. § Broker-‐dealer and universal bank under one holding. § Broker-‐dealer has own funding, equity and debt § Cross guarantees uni-‐direc+onal (from TB to UB, but not reverse) § Prop trading not prohibited for holding company (at TB, not at UB) § Two roads to separa+on
• Avenue 1: first, higher capital buffer (not risk-‐weighted) for banks with large trading book. Then RRP. Second, if RRP not accepted by supervisor, separa+on is mandatory.
• Avenue 2: Immediate separa+on, upon crossing a defined threshold (e.g., trading assets)
33
Proposal by HLEG Banking Group in comparison
pro
Prop trading+ Market making
Investment and commercial banking (prop trading, mkt making, large corporate lending)
”Volcker Banking Group”
”Vickers Banking Group”
”HLEG Banking Group”
Investment and commercial banking
Prop trading+ Mkt making
Investment and commercial banking
Swaps push-‐out
Retail banking with higher capital requirements
34
I. LIIKANEN PROPOSAL
II. BACKGROUND ON SEPARATION - Trading, banking, and risk taking. - Market making and banking.
III. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF SEPARATION - Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.
IV. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH
Agenda
35
What will be the market response?
§ Market response is a general equilibrium issue.
§ Emergence of broker-‐dealers – as independent arms of Sifis. • Need to fulfill capital requirements as well, including bail-‐in (first-‐in-‐
line) debt.
§ Will smaller ins+tu+ons (below-‐de-‐minimis) grow their trading business, taking over from the broker-‐dealers? • Probably not, assuming fixed costs in trading to be significant. • Rather, and for the same reason, broker-‐dealers may take over
business from smaller ins+tu+ons.
36
Will there be less liquidity?
§ What happens to plaporm strategy of “flow monsters”? • Possibly, financial engineering advisory will con+nue as before, now
provided by the broker-‐dealer, only execu+on of resul+ng net posi+ons is outsourced to one/more broker-‐dealers.
• Thus, conceivably, plaporm strategy can be largely maintained. • However, broker-‐dealer has to pay funding costs commensurate with
its stand-‐alone risk. § Profitability of market making-‐cum-‐prop trading likely to shrink
• (General equilibrium adjustment is complicated to forecast, however)
§ Effect on trading volume and liquidity • Thakor (US Chamber of Commerce, 2011): Volcker rule will reduce
liquidity, increase spreads, lower credit volume, lower economic growth.
• Does not consider general equilibrium repercussions, e.g. new entrants (broker-‐dealers), new price level, new market models.
37
Will there be less risk transfer?
§ Securi+za+on of the loan book was the early success story of a coopera+on between commercial and investment banking. Will this be made impossible?
§ Probably no material change, if one allows structuring exper+se to be outsourced (to the ring-‐fenced trading house, for instance).
§ Consider the joint effect of separa+on and bail-‐in debt issues. • Bail-‐in debt transfers the most junior debt layer in the bank balance
sheet to private investors outside the banking system, making it more resilient against shocks.
• More risk transfer than before the crisis likely.
38
What about 2-‐<er banking model? (1)
§ Money center banking • Within-‐group borrowing and lending not affected by separa+on. • Single counterparty exposure limits apply.
- Pushes Groups to consolidate (as within-‐Group exposures do no longer maner).
§ Central deriva+ves and trading facility of the Group • Within exposure limits: unaffected by separa+on • Beyond exposure limits: exact same transac+ons executed through
other market par+cipants - ‘Other market par+cipant’ could be a white-‐labeling, compe+ng bank. - ‘Other market par+cipant’ may be another daughter, in or out of mul+ bank holding
company (no longer in US: Intermediate Holding Company under DFA for Foreign Banks).
39
What about 2-‐<er banking model? (2)
§ Effect of separa+on regula+on on business model • Level 1 bank (retail): no material effect, just different provider in
market. • Level 2 bank (wholesale): reduced transac+on volume with Group
members, but poten+al for increased transac+on volume with members of other Groups (gen. eq. effect)
§ Effect of bail-‐in regula+on on business model • Depends on Group status (consolidated or not)
- If fully consolidated: bail-‐in debt requirement applies at Group level only. - If not fully consolidated: bail-‐in debt requirement applies at the individual
bank level -‐-‐> absolute volume increases (double-‐coun+ng). - If not fully consolidated: Group-‐internal deposit insurance schemes are
affected as well, if the scheme covers all liabili+es, as in the case of a ‘Ins+tutssicherung’ (savings banks, Germany).
40
Trading and banking -‐ a research request
§ Not much empirical work exists on the role of securi+es and deriva+ves trading in today’s banking markets.
• Interviews are not enough. • Clinical studies needed: understanding the business model of large,
interna+onal banks, and the role played by trading ac+vi+es (plaporm strategy)
• More generally, more should be known about the welfare effect of increased trading in world capital markets. The risk we have seen – where is the benefit?
• What are the expected costs of curtailing trading for society?
§ What are investor incen+ves when banks rely on mul+-‐+er capital structure (as opposed to simple debt-‐equity schemes)?
§ Similarly, understand role of interbank secured (repo) and unsecured market.
41
I. LIIKANEN PROPOSAL
II. BACKGROUND ON SEPARATION - Trading, banking, and risk taking. - Market making and banking.
III. ALTERNATIVE MODELS OF SEPARATION - Comparing Volcker, Vickers, Liikanen.
IV. ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION AND RESEARCH
V. APPENDIX
Agenda
42
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