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TOWARDS A CLIMATE SMART WWF

Synthesis of findings and options to increase resilience

28 July 2008

Landsliding in Nepal. Photo: Sandeep Rai (2008)

Rob Wilby1, Kit Vaughan

2, Simon Anderson

3, Louise Nielsen

4 and Claudia Tebaldi

1

1 Independent Climate Change Science Advisor

2 WWF-UK, Panda House, Godalming

3 International Institute for Environment and Development, Edinburgh

4Independent Consultant, Reading

On behalf of

WWF-UK

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Executive Summary

Working Group I of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and,

that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very likely due to observed increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas

concentrations.

The IPCC estimates that approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at

increasingly high risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2-3°C

above pre-industrial levels. Under even modest levels of climate change, development and

conservation programmes could fail to realise intended benefits or, worse still,

contribute to increased vulnerability or reduced resilience.

This report is the final deliverable of a Phase I project that has provided: (1) a high-level

review of climate change impacts research and (2) a preliminary “hot spots” analysis of

WWF’s global network of Priority Places; (3) a critique of climate change risk screening and

adaptation frameworks employed by other organisations; (4) a survey of current approaches

and attitudes to climate change adaptation within WWF (5) including a “grass roots”

perspective from WWF-Nepal; and finally (6) an outline of options to strengthen “climate

smart” conservation practice.

This report provides a synthesis of the first five work streams and identifies options to

increase resilience to climate change. To date, WWF has taken a project-based approach to

adaptation. This has enabled some trialling of methods, awareness raising and exchange of

information, but the capacity building has been piece-meal and localised. Ideally, WWF

should be moving towards a programme-based approach in which organisational capacity

development is better coordinated, resourced, and integrated across functions.

Priorities for Phase II include embedding climate “smart” principles in WWF’s monitoring

and reporting, portfolio screening, knowledge and capacity building, decision-support tools

and guidance. Surveys of attitudes and approaches to adaptation, from grass roots up, further

highlight the need for effective communication of anticipated risks, and sharing of

information on how to adapt in practice. The Phase II work plan options comprise:

Work Package I – ADDRESSING NETWORK-WIDE KNOWLEDGE GAPS

Work with partners to fill knowledge gaps on climate change impacts on flagship species and key

eco-regions (such as the Eastern Himalayas, Orinoco River and Yangtze basin).

Harvest country-level knowledge (such as WWF reports, photographic evidence, and grey

literature) on ecosystem change for data sparse regions and/or global Priority Places.

Upgrade WWF reporting systems to better capture and share information on climate change

projects between offices (e.g., HSBC studies in the Amur, Ganga and Yangtze basins).

Extend existing hot-spots analyses of global Priority Places to include risks arising from changes

in sea level, ocean acidity and temperature.

Deploy the above macro-scale risk-screening alongside information on environmental thresholds

and social adaptive capacity to shortlist eco-regions for detailed vulnerability assessment.

Gather field data and local knowledge about the sites and species that are least affected by, or

have been most resilient to, recent extreme weather events.

Use the above diagnostics to shape adaptation practice, as well as to design and manage

protected areas within Priority Places.

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Establish monitoring systems to track ecosystem responses to direct and indirect climate impacts

in Priority Places using “sentinel” environments (e.g., ephemeral water bodies, coastal zone

complexes, southern edge of grassland-scrub, arctic biome, etc).

Work Package II – SUPPORTING COUNTRY-OFFICE ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES

Establish agreed working definitions of climate change adaptation for use in WWF programmes.

Develop a WWF pro forma and supporting guidance for vulnerability assessment.

Provide risk screening tools and guidance for routine assessment of projects on climate change

adaptation and trace-gas sequestration, alongside ecosystem and livelihood criteria.

Develop fact sheets covering basic concepts, terminology and links to further resources.

Build institutional knowledge, through programmes of invited speakers, secondments, and

“hands on” climate change camps dealing explicitly with adaptation issues.

Support South-South capacity building by identifying examples of good practice at the local

scale, that can be generalized to other areas and fed into policy frameworks, investment decisions

and funding institutions.

Incorporate a longer funding cycle into WWF adaptation projects, addressing not only immediate

but longer-term threats, in order to account for the impacts of climate change.

Prioritise work on climate change adaptation in country offices (such as WWF-Nepal) where the

need for training on climate scenario information and tipping point analyses are most pressing.

Strengthen country networks by co-ordinating capacity building initiatives, co-locating or

seconding WWF staff with government, civil society or scientific communities.

Work Package III – ENABLING ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE

Task a senior executive to lead on adaptation, and support this climate change champion with a

technical advisory board.

Set out clearly defined adaptation objectives and positions in strategies and work plans.

Establish institutional architecture to facilitate organizational learning and change (by specifying

targets, monitoring indicators and reporting progress on anticipatory adaptation).

Appraise senior managers using a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for adaptation.

Equip project managers and programme staff with tools and guidance on climate risk screening.

Embed portfolio screening within programme cycles, from inception and design, through to

implementation and evaluation.

Apply adaptive management principles that result in pathways of adaptation and “low regret”

measures, i.e., those that are robust no matter the climate change outcome.

Convey climate risks anticipated for Priority Places and flagship species.

Establish show-case projects to help make adaptation practice more tangible, coupled with long-

term monitoring to demonstrate effectiveness of adaptation interventions.

Update the portfolio of projects in WWF’s Defending Nature Against Climate Change to help

staff and stakeholders to better understand what adaptation really looks like.

In addition, it is shown that rapid environmental change brings into question the ability of

traditional approaches to conservation (such as restoration ecology) to deliver sustainable

benefits to people and biodiversity. Hence, climate change poses a range of difficult

ideological questions that WWF will need to confront alongside the equally challenging

operational and scientific concerns.

To conclude, climate change is already impacting many ecosystems, sectors and regions, so

adaptation is needed even if stringent cuts in emissions can be achieved. WWF must now

scale up efforts on adaptation to ensure that climate change does not undermine past

achievements or jeopardise future conservation objectives.

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Contents

Page

Executive summary 2

1. Introduction 5

2. Meta-analysis of climate change impacts of ecosystems 6

3. Hot-spots analysis of global priority places 9

4. Hallmarks of adapting organisations 10

5. Attitudes and approaches to climate change adaptation 12

6. Climate change adaptation from the grass roots 14

7. Next steps 16

Acknowledgements 16

Annexes

Climate change quandaries facing conservations organisations

Climate change adaptation pilot project in Langtang Valley, Nepal

Summary of options for Towards a climate smart WWF (Phase II)

17

18

20

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1. Introduction

The Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and, that most of the

observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th

century is very likely

due to observed increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

The IPCC estimates that approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at

increasingly high risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2-3°C

above pre-industrial levels. Under even modest levels of climate change, development and

conservation programmes could fail to realise intended benefits or, worse still,

contribute to increased vulnerability or reduced resilience.

Hence climate change presents a visible and imminent threat to global ecosystems. Rapid

environmental change also brings into question the ability of traditional approaches to

conservation (based on maintaining the status quo or restoring systems to former states) to

deliver sustainable benefits to people and biodiversity. Hence, climate change poses a range

of ideological questions to conservation organizations above and beyond the challenging

scientific issues. For example, on assisted migration of species, or on handling trade-offs

between species conservation and renewable energy supply (and the other issues in Annex 1).

Furthermore, protecting investments from climate change will require concerted effort to both

reduce future emissions and adapt to the unavoidable consequences of past emissions.

This 3-month pilot project is an initial step towards scoping the scale of the challenge

presented by climate change to WWF’s operations and options to increase resilience.

The project’s purposeful line of enquiry began with a high level scientific review of climate

change impacts on WWF Priority Places, through to the organisational response, right down

to the “grass roots” level. The work progressed in five steps:

1. Meta-analysis of global climate change impacts on ecosystems, drawing on key

scientific, governmental and non-governmental literature, sifted into WWF’s 35 Priority

Places as set out in the 2008 Global Programme Framework.

2. Analysis of “hot spots” to identify the Priority Places that are most at risk from changes

in regional temperature and precipitation (means and extremes) as projected by the IPCC

FAR climate model ensemble.

3. Appraisal of the hallmarks of adapting organizations, by reviewing the shared

features, lessons learnt, guiding principles, overarching objectives, measures of progress,

and structures for institutional learning.

4. Survey of current approaches and attitudes to climate change adaptation across

WWF, spanning international objective setting to implementation at country- and field-

levels, to identify perceived opportunities and constraints to adaptation.

5. Identification of options to increase resilience to climate change in conservation

practice, by means of grass roots consultations (with WWF-Nepal).

The deliverables provide evidence of present and future climate-related threats to WWF’s

conservation efforts, and a basis for defining a programme of measures to help embed

climate-smart policy and process at different levels of the organisation. This is very timely

given ongoing discussions about the role and scope of WWF’s Climate Adaptation Centre.

The following sections provide a synthesis of the main findings of the project, and specific

recommendations for further work.

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2. Meta-analysis of climate change impacts of ecosystems

2.1 Anticipated climate change impacts will be superimposed upon other drivers of

ecosystem change including habitat destruction, expansion of agriculture, pollution, over-

harvesting and degradation of natural resources, mining, urbanisation and infrastructure

developments. The most widely cited present threats are unsustainable resource use

(primarily forest and marine goods), followed by pollution and expansion of agriculture.

2.2 Some eco-regions are already undergoing rapid change and are highly vulnerable to

projected changes in regional temperature, rainfall and sea level. New evidence suggests that

transitions between ecosystem states can occur within decades once tipping points are

reached1. Mangroves, salt marshes, coral reefs, small islands, sea-ice biome, and tundra,

montane, Mediterranean-type, and high-latitude (terrestrial) ecosystems rank amongst the

most vulnerable. Many appear on WWF’s list of 35 Priority Places as set out in the 2008

Global Programme Framework (Figure 1).

Figure 1 WWF’s 35 Priority Places

2.3 The meta-analysis of global climate change impacts on the ecosystems within WWF’s

Priority Places drew on published research up to, and beyond the IPCC FAR. Over 750

citations were reviewed and captured within an accompanying compendium of present and

future threats (plus supporting literature). Only direct impacts of climate variability and

change were mapped to a ten-category typology of physical and biological responses (Box 1).

However, it is recognised that many indirect impacts could arise from autonomous human

responses to climate change, such as extensification or intensification of agriculture.

1 Lenton, T.M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J.W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, J. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 1786-1793.

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Box 1 Typology of physical and biological impacts of climate change driven by modified thermal and

water cycle regimes, sea level rise, CO2 fertilization and disturbance by extreme events. See also Fig.2

Physical Thermal (e.g., species range, growing season, stratification, frost)

Hydrological (e.g., water volume, timing, duration, intensity, cloud level)

Quality (e.g., air and water nutrients, pollutants, dissolved oxygen, acidity, salinity)

Landscape (e.g., permafrost, avalanche, erosion/deposition, sediment supply)

Habitat (e.g., contraction, fragmentation, niche availability)

Biological Disturbance (e.g., pests, disease, fire regime)

Functional (e.g., productivity, carbon and nutrient cycling, trophic status)

Physiological (e.g., stress, growth rate, bleaching, mortality, genetics)

Behavioural (e.g., phenology, migration, dispersal, foraging, mutualism)

Structural (e.g., density, assemblage, invasive species, extinction)

2.4 The main findings of the literature survey are listed in Box 2. In addition, some

studies highlight cross-cutting scientific uncertainties surrounding ecosystem change such as

climate-human roles in disturbance regimes (fire, invasive species, disease, pests, pollution

episodes, etc). There are also problematic policy questions, such as how to establish local

management strategies for “invasives” when both desirable and undesirable species’ ranges

are in a state of flux (see also Annex 1).

Box 2 Summary of published research on climate change impacts on ecosystems

Thematic emphasis on the changing structure (assemblage) of ecosystems in response to hydrological

and/or thermal drivers;

More abundant information on impacts for Northern Hemisphere, extra-topical priority places;

Methodological reliance on climate change analogues and “bottom-up” vulnerability assessments;

Widespread recognition of multiple, co-stressors but seldom an integrated approach;

Evidence of impacts on ecosystems expressed at genetic- to global-scales;

Recognition of rapid ecosystem change (once triggered at critical thresholds or tipping points);

Highly site- and species-specific responses to the same climate stressor(s);

The important role of biota in two-way, trace-gas climate-feedbacks.

2.5 Low confidence in regional climate (especially precipitation) projections has meant

that there are relatively few “top-down” assessments for many of the Priority Places. This

limits the prospects for explicitly linking different human development and emission

pathways to their attendant ecosystem impacts. Some of the most data sparse or under-

researched places include the Amur-Heilong, Orinoco flooded forests, Eastern Himalayas,

and South/East African biomes (Fynbos, Namib, Rift Valley) (Figure 2).

2.6 Recommendation 1: Fill knowledge gaps

Leverage resources and scientific engagement with in situ technical capacity development for

data sparse regions, species and biomes. This would improve global coverage and address

some of the knowledge gaps on climate change impacts for key eco-regions and habitats in

Africa, Asia and South America. The most pressing information gaps are for the Eastern

Himalayas, Orinoco River and Yangtze basin (see section 3.4). This should also include

mining WWF data holdings and improved knowledge exchange between projects.

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Physical impacts:

TH = Thermal

HY = Hydrological

QU = Quality

LA = Landscape

HA = Habitat

Biological impacts:

DI = Disturbance

FU = Functional

PH = Physiological

BE = Behavioural

ST = Structural

Figure 2 Reported climate

change impacts for each

priority place. Ten stars

indicate that an example of

each type of impact listed in

Box 1 has been documented.

Absence of a star can be

interpreted as no information

found, or no impact.

2.7 Integrated assessment of multiple climate and non-climatic impacts presupposes

multi-disciplinary programmes of activity (as opposed to the reductionist approaches that

have been favoured to date). Relatively few examples were found of up-scaling of local

knowledge to enable strategic assessment and planning.

2.8 Recommendation 2: Up-scale adaptation practice

Commission research to diagnose the attributes of sites and species that are least affected by,

or are most resilient to, recent extreme weather events (i.e., “inverse” impact assessments).

These case studies could help shape adaptation practice through improved design and

management of protected areas within Priority Places, as well as build South-South capacity.

2.9 Technical solutions to climate change span genetic- to geo-engineering scales. Side-

effects on ecosystems could emerge from a raft of well-intentioned climate mitigation and

adaptation measures implemented “up-stream”. Yet these risks are seldom recognised.

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2.10 Recommendation 3: Monitor direct and indirect consequences of climate change

Establish monitoring systems to track ecosystem responses to both direct and indirect climate

change impacts within Priority Places. This could be done using “sentinel” habitats of various

scales such as ephemeral water bodies, coastal zone complexes, montane forest refugia,

southern edge of grassland-scrub, the margins of the Arctic biome, or surface layers of the

ocean (dissolved oxygen, CO2 and pH).

2.11 The role of ecosystems in regulating trace-gas sources and sinks is widely recognised.

However, the integrity of these sinks can be threatened by poor land or biomass management,

for example, through interventions that increase fire risk, or soil disturbance.

2.12 Recommendation 4: Realise climate mitigation benefits of conservation

Develop and apply project screening tools for the routine assessment of opportunities for

maximising carbon/methane sink potential through improved soil and land-cover

management as well as minimising risks of climate change impacts on the same ecosystems.

3. Hot-spots analysis of global Priority Places

3.1 The literature review was supplemented by a quantitative assessment of the risks

posed by regional climate change to WWF’s global network. This macro-scale screening is a

preliminary step towards prioritising eco-regions for more detailed vulnerability assessment.

3.2 Output from the ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) used by Working

Group I of the IPCC FAR was used to project changes in average surface temperature and

precipitation and a suite of indicators of extreme climate. Quantities were computed as area

averages for the 35 priority places. Projections span the entire 21st century, focusing on three

periods centred at 2020, 2050 and 2080 under three alternative emission pathways, as defined

by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC as A2, A1B and B1. The

availability of an ensemble of several GCMs and the three scenarios allows the

characterization, at least to first approximation, of ranges of likely outcomes.

3.3 By ranking and comparing projected changes at the regional scale with average global

changes, the most susceptible places were identified along different dimensions (temperature-

related and precipitation-related changes). The degree of exposure of each place to multiple

climate change stressors was determined and regions were ranked accordingly, in order to

provide a prioritized list.

3.4 Ten regions were identified as being more exposed than the global average to

temperature and precipitation changes that could threaten ecosystems (Figure 3). The regions

cover areas of different continents and latitudes, including the Amazon to the Northern Great

Plains, from the Greater Black Sea Basin to the Miombo Woodlands, from the Chihuahuan

Deserts to the Eastern Himalayas, with the latter emerging by these measures as potentially

the single most vulnerable region. Three of the ten eco-regions were previously identified as

information scarce (Eastern Himalayas, Orinoco River and Yangtze Basin).

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Ten most vulnerable Priority Places:

1. Amazon-Guianas

2. Cerrado-Pantanal

3. Chihuahuan Desert and Freshwater

4. Eastern Himalayas

5. Greater Black Sea Basin

6. Mekong Complex

7. Miombo Woodlands

8. Northern Great Plains

9. Orinoco River and Flooded Forests

10. Yangtze Basin

Figure 3 Priority Places projected to experience most significant changes in means and extremes of

precipitation and temperature by 2080 under SRES A1B emissions. The three most information scarce regions

(see Figure 2) are listed in bold.

3.5 A major caveat of this hot-spot analysis was that changes in ocean temperature and

acidity, as well as sea level were not included in the preliminary assessment. This means that

the findings are biased towards impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore, the scenarios-

led (“top down”) approach is best suited to high-level screening and prioritisation, and less so

for detailed vulnerability assessment which necessarily relies on more detailed local data.

3.6 Recommendation 5: Short-list eco-regions for vulnerability assessment

Broaden the preliminary hot-spot analysis of WWF’s global network of Priority Places to

include changes in sea level and ocean properties. Determine which parts of WWF’s portfolio

are particularly exposed to climate risk by favouring those regions that are projected to

experience most rapid change. This risk-screening could help prioritise resources across the

network and/or inform future design of conserved areas.

4. Hallmarks of adapting organisations

4.1 Given that the climate system is already committed to further change as a

consequence of past emissions, scientists and policy makers are now calling for urgent action

on adaptation alongside mitigation efforts. Adaptations to livelihoods and biophysical

systems can take many forms, ranging from changes in behaviour to reduce risk exposure,

through to major investments in new assets to protect vital infrastructure, ecosystem goods

and services.

4.2 A synthesis of existing practice addressed the basic question “what do adapting

organisations look like?” Answers were found by reviewing the shared features, lessons

learnt, guiding principles, overarching objectives and institutional structures of organisations

that are already adapting to climate change. There was no shortage of material to draw upon,

but this is currently focused on a limited number of sectors in developed regions (Box 3).

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Box 3 Hallmarks of adapting organizations

1. Climate change champions are clearly visible, setting goals, advocating and resourcing initiatives on

climate change adaptation;

2. Climate change adaptation objectives are clearly stated in corporate strategies and regularly reviewed

as part of a broader strategic framework;

3. Flexible structures and processes are in place to assist organisational learning, up-skilling of teams, and

mainstreaming of adaptation within codes of practice;

4. Progress in adapting is monitored and reported against clearly defined targets;

5. Comprehensive risk and vulnerability assessments are being undertaken for priority activities and areas

of business;

6. Scientifically-based, workable guidance and training on adaptation is being put in place for operational

staff;

7. Adaptation pathways are being guided by precautionary principles that deliver “low regret”

anticipatory measures in the face of deep uncertainty;

8. Multi-partner networks are in place that are sharing information, pooling resources and taking

concerted action to realise complementary adaptation goals;

9. Effective communication with internal and external audiences is raising awareness of climate risks and

opportunities, realising behavioural changes, and demonstrating adaptation in action.

4.3 The nine hallmarks listed in Box 3 provide a starting point for self-assessment,

recognising that there are typically large variations in adaptive capacity within individual

organizations, depending on local context (such as inertia, culture, hidden values, or resource

availability). It is evident that some elements are either absent or weakly developed across

WWF’s global network. The creation of WWF’s Climate Adaptation Centre will provide an

excellent opportunity to address some of these organizational needs.

4.4 Recommendation 6: Facilitate organizational learning and change

Use the adaptation checklist to assess the current status of WWF against each element. Then:

1. Task a senior executive to lead on adaptation, and support this climate change

champion with a technical advisory board;

2. Set out clearly defined adaptation objectives and positions (with respect to the

“conundrums” listed in Annex 1) in corporate strategies and individual work plans;

3. Put in place institutional architecture to facilitate organizational learning and change

(by specifying targets, monitoring indicators and reporting progress on adaptation);

4. Appraise senior managers using a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for adaptation.

4.5 Although the focus of the synthesis was on the traits of adapting organizations, there

is wider recognition of the need to integrate adaptation activities with work on mitigation (see

Recommendation 4). This is particularly pertinent whenever measures involve energy, water,

soil or vegetation management. Also, given the uncertain, even intractable nature of some

regional climate changes, robust adaptation decisions will have to be taken that yield

beneficial outcomes regardless of the direction, magnitude or rate of climate change.

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4.6 Recommendation 7: Address operational aspects of the adaptation checklist

Equip project managers and programme staff with tools and guidance on climate risk

screening;

Embed portfolio screening within programme cycles, from inception and design,

through to implementation and evaluation;

Apply adaptive management principles that result in pathways of adaptation and “low

regret” measures, i.e., those that make good sense whether or not climate change is a

major concern.

4.7 Effective communications strategies can convey the need for action and improve

conditions for sharing experiences at all levels of an organization. Experience suggests that

effective communication campaigns recognise the diverse nature and needs of the intended

target group(s), encourage behavioural change through affirmative messages and by

highlighting opportunities, make space for two-way learning, and convey messages that

resonate with the concerns of the audience.

4.8 Recommendation 8: Show-case adaptation in practice

Address the communication aspects of the adaptation checklist (see also section 5):

Convey climate risks anticipated for Priority Places;

Establish demonstration field projects and pilot schemes that help make adaptation in

practice more tangible.

Build on the portfolio of projects in WWF’s Defending Nature Against Climate

Change to help staff and stakeholders to better understand what adaptation really

looks like.

5. Attitudes and approaches to climate change adaptation

5.1 A survey was undertaken to sample current approaches and attitudes towards climate

change adaptation within WWF in order to identify perceived risks, opportunities and

constraints to adaptation (Box 4). Additionally, the survey reviewed the current

understanding of the concept of adaptation within the organization as well as practical issues

surrounding the design, implementation, and monitoring of adaptation projects.

5.2 The consultation process was carried out using semi-structured interviews. These

were initially circulated via e-mail to members of staff across the worldwide network.

Participants were identified using a snowball technique whereby senior staff currently

involved in climate change programmes were approached first, and then asked to identify and

encourage other WWF colleagues to contribute.

5.3 Over a three week period in June 2008, 19 members of staff were consulted from ten

regional and country offices across the network (Australia, Beliz, Fiji, Kenya, Nepal,

Netherlands, Peru, Switzerland, UK and US). The majority of interviews were carried out by

telephone meetings, while the rest were collected via e-mail, in order to engage as many

people as possible with differing interests, roles and positions within the WWF network.

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Box 4 Obstacles to and opportunities for adaptation identified by WWF staff

Obstacles Examples

Capacity Technical understanding, guidance, case studies

Cultural Perceptions of climate change risk and uncertainty

Political Will to drive institutional change and mainstreaming

Legal Conflicting local regulation/legislation/policies

Economic Market pressures could lead to maladaption

Financial Research funding favours top-down (rather than bottom up) approaches

Planning Funding cycles shorter than adaptation cycles

Opportunities Examples

Institutional Emphasis on bottom up, integrated approaches, addressing related societal issues

Networks Global connectivity across people and institutions, spanning policy and practice

Knowledge Sharing lessons learnt and good practice between different offices and areas

Financial Potential income streams and fund-raising linked to adaptation

Commitment Recognition that adaptation is a core part of the future global deal

Support Climate change reinforces the importance of WWF’s goals and value of natural systems

5.4 The survey showed that, although there is generally a good level of support for

mainstreaming climate change adaptation within the organization, a large proportion of staff

are unsure of how to adapt and what ‘an adapting organization’ should look like. Equally,

while there was generally a broad understanding of the concept of adaptation and access to a

large body of data on climate change, there was still uncertainty regarding the expected

impacts of climate change at local scales.

5.5 Recommendation 9: Define a common adaptation framework

Establish a clear working definition of climate change adaptation for WWF projects and

programmes. This should support communication and understanding of adaptation impacts

and priorities at the global, regional and local scale. Develop information sheets covering

basic concepts, terminology and links to further resources. These resources should sit

alongside other activities to build institutional knowledge, such as programmes of invited

speakers and climate change camps dealing explicitly with adaptation issues.

5.6 Participants felt that specific tools and guidance on climate change adaptation were

lacking. Respondents were generally keen to learn more about different approaches to

adaptation taking place across the network. There is clearly scope for sharing lessons learnt

from major project such as HSBC work in the Amur, Ganga and Yangtze basins.

5.7 Recommendation 10: Improve knowledge sharing across the network

Draw together a coherent adaptation framework for the WWF network by sharing what

different offices are planning, and how they are implementing and monitoring climate change

adaptation. This should clarify whether/how a new adaptation framework might change the

conservation goals and objectives of WWF in the future and communicate WWF’s

‘responsibility’ and ‘niche’ in climate change adaptation, in relation to different sectors and

levels within the organization.

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5.8 Lack of sufficient resources to support capacity building and awareness raising across

the WWF network is a major obstacle in realizing an effective climate change adaptation

strategy to support and enhance WWF’s current conservation and development goals (see

also Box 4). Without long-term and programme-based support for adaptation, progress will

continue to be uneven and piece-meal.

5.9 Recommendation 11: Move from project- to programme-based working

Source and direct funding and expertise towards building capacity and awareness within

WWF, in order to harness the commitment and potential of the organization to pioneer

climate change adaptation worldwide. Capitalize on South-South capacity building by

identifying examples of good practice at the local scale, which can be generalized to other

areas and fed up into policy frameworks, investment decisions and funding institutions.

Incorporate a longer funding cycle into adaptation projects, addressing not only immediate

but longer-term threats, in order to account for the impacts of climate change.

6. Climate change adaptation from the grass roots

6.1 The meta- and hot-spot analyses highlighted the particular vulnerability of the Eastern

Himalayas to changes in global means and extremes of temperature and precipitation. This

evidence suggests that the region should be high on WWF’s priority list for climate action.

Accordingly, an appreciative inquiry2 approach was used to focus through the lens of the

DFID PPA framework on environmental governance and poverty elimination, the natural

environment, and climate change adaptation in Nepal.

6.2 The field visit to WWF-Nepal considered elements of climate adaptation work that

could be built upon, constraints encountered, and the requirements for institutional and

organisational change. Furthermore, attention focused on the need for improved foresight on

climate impacts to enhance adaptation and optimize livelihood versus conservation trade-offs

so thresholds are planned for and biophysical and socio-economic tipping points avoided.

6.3 Local observations in the high altitude areas of Nepal confirm the reality of

increasingly significant climate change impacts on biodiversity and upon natural resources

based livelihoods. However, these need to be substantiated with more in-depth monitoring

and analysis to ascertain the future implications of habitat and species changes for

ecosystems. There is also a palpable need to explore the inter-relationships between climate

change, adaptation, livelihoods and wellbeing of the poor and biodiversity in greater detail.

6.4 WWF-Nepal staff feel the need to first become better acquainted with climate

adaptation concepts, processes and actions, and second, that community level climate

adaptation projects should be planned and implemented so that learning by doing can happen.

The links between climate adaptation and livelihoods, and with biodiversity conservation are

poorly understood and require to be better conceptualised and assessed. This pattern of

2 Appreciative Inquiry is about the coevolutionary search for the best in people, their organizations, and the relevant world around them. In

its broadest focus, it involves systematic discovery of what gives “life” to a living system when it is most alive, most effective, and most

constructively capable in economic, ecological, and human terms. AI involves, in a central way, the art and practice of asking questions that

strengthen a system’s capacity to apprehend, anticipate, and heighten positive potential. It centrally involves the mobilization of inquiry

through the crafting of the “unconditional positive question”.” http://appreciativeinquiry.case.edu/

“Appreciative Inquiry is a very easy, powerful and positive way to enable change. You start by looking at what works and how to make this better.” http://www.nickheap.co.uk/articles_by_cat.asp?art_cat_id=27

http://appreciativeinquiry.case.edu/

http://www.nickheap.co.uk/articles_by_cat.asp?art_cat_id=27

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uncertainty on adaptation and related climate change issues is apparent across WWF-Nepal

and other organisations in Nepal including government, civil society and academia.

6.5 Adaptation is being hindered by scarcity of people with knowledge, expertise and

experience, by the lack of information on climate impacts etc., by the lack of technical

support from outwith Nepal, the complex sets of adaptation needs due to ecosystem diversity,

difficulties of accessibility and communications, wide cultural diversity and different

peoples’ awareness and mind-set towards climate related issues, and, the previously unstable

political environment.

6.6 Once a climate adaptation component is added to the climate change portfolio the

breadth and completeness of this programme of work should make it a model for

consideration by other WWF national programmes. WWF-Nepal is in a very good situation

to be able to contribute to knowledge on the outcomes of adaptation strategies that weight

societal and ecosystem adaptation needs differently. This could be done either through the

analysis of comparable direct observations or through modelling assessments over time.

6.7 More far-sighted adaptation strategies are required to balance societal and biodiversity

needs and these strategies will need to explicitly address tipping points and thresholds in

ecosystem carrying capacity (Figure 4). It is important that WWF-Nepal’s thinking on, and

investments in, impacts-oriented adaptation combining livelihoods and ecosystems needs is

ready in time for the Nepali NAPA implementation phase (starting 2009).

Figure 4 The trajectory and decisions on adaptation options that incorporate objectives of ecosystems integrity

compared to those that ignore ecosystems aspects. The diagram shows some hypothetical instances of the trade-

offs at the decision points – examples used here are based on circumstances similar to those seen in the

Langtang Valley. The initial trajectory of the pathways (solid line) represents the situation where present climate

variability is observed, biodiversity is managed in ways that preserve the integrity of ecosystems while allowing

sustainable utilization of natural resources. A first climate threshold is reached and the impacts of climate

change become apparent. Adaptation options are then decided upon. The illustration characterizes options into

two possibilities – both are impacts-oriented but one allocates natural resources to maintaining livelihoods

benefits, the other allocates resources to biodiversity conservation and maintains ecosystem integrity as far as

possible. Neither pathway necessarily precludes positive changes on the axis of the non-prioritised objective.

However, the cost of selecting one objective over the other is seen in the relative progress along the axes. The

situation in Langtang Valley can be located at the point of divergence of the pathways around the first climate

change threshold. Core and buffer management policies have sought to balance ecosystem and livelihood

objectives. Climate change impacts are now becoming apparent due to rising temperatures and increasingly

intense rainfall. Adaptation options now need to be decided upon. The social organization set up for core and

buffer zone management means that if information can be made available on climate impacts and adaptation

options decisions can be made on the adaptation pathways to be taken.

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6.8 Recommendation 12: Support climate adaptation in front-line regions

Support WWF-Nepal by enabling planned work on climate adaptation to go ahead in the

Langtang region (as outlined in Annex 2). The proposed strategic plan has several elements

including an exemplar project that would build resilience of people and ecosystems in

vulnerable areas. Outputs would feed directly into the DFID financed PPA with WWF-UK.

The most pressing technical need is for support in climate scenario and tipping point

analyses. These activities would also benefit the implementation of the Nepali National

Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) and the 2nd

National Communication by Nepal to the UN

Framework Convention on Climate Change.

7. Next steps

7.1 This pilot study has drawn together evidence of the scale of the challenge confronting

WWF and partner organisations, and specific steps that could be taken to increase resilience

to climate change at different levels of conservation practice. Options have been identified for

improving surveillance and reporting of impacts; recognising climate change risks at all

levels of the organisation; communicating shared risks and influencing partner organisations;

coordinating responses at country and international levels; filling critical skills gaps; and

applying decision-support tools/guidance based on sound adaptation principles.

7.2 A skeleton outline of options for Phase II of Towards a Climate Smart WWF is

offered in Annex 3. It is hoped that the outcomes of this pilot study will help inform ongoing

discussions about the future role and shape of WWF’s Climate Adaptation Centre. The

project recommendations were generally well-received at a WWF-International workshop in

Gland in July 2008, and it was agreed that the hot-spot analysis and risk-screening elements

should be taken forward.

7.3 Several project deliverables will be submitted for publication in the peer reviewed

scientific literature. In particular, the hot-spot analysis and checklist for adapting

organizations have attracted attention from other NGOs and partners in civil society.

7.4 In the meantime, a seminar programme on climate change adaptation has been

prepared by WWF-UK and discussions are underway about the possible release of some of

the project deliverables as WWF publications.

7.5 IIED and WWF-UK are in discussions with WWF-Nepal about opportunities for

supporting capacity development and climate change impact assessment (as in Annex 2).

7.6 In due course, the work plan options in Annex 3 could be fleshed out and presented to

Senior Management Team as a formal proposal.

Acknowledgements

The authors thank all of the individuals who have participated in this consultation, for their

insightful comments, patience and support in shaping the final synthesis and work plan

recommendations.

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Annex 1 Climate change quandaries facing conservations organisations

Climate change poses a range of ideological questions to conservation organizations above

and beyond the challenging scientific issues. The following list of issues arose through the

course of literature reviews and consultation processes. It is contested that space will be

needed to confront these issues before adaptation objectives can be properly defined.

Box A1.1 Possible topics to discuss at a climate change camp

1. What rules, processes, or protocols should be employed to arbitrate trade-offs between

people and nature?

2. What (if any) place is there for triage if the limit of adaptation is likely to be exceeded

in the near future and, how should the system be managed in the aftermath?

3. What should be the approach to invasive species given the opposing objectives of

maximising connectivity to aid dispersals versus containing unwanted species?

4. What rules should be followed when translocating species or entire ecosystems to aid

survival against climate change? Is “designer nature” justifiable and technically feasible

under these circumstances?

5. How should efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or to adapt to unavoidable

climate change be traded against indirect environmental impacts on ecosystems?

6. What are the potential risks and benefits of geo-engineering?

7. What is the future role and status of protected areas and surrounding habitats?

8. What are the long-term opportunity costs of conservation activities focused on

networks of priority places?

9. What are the implications of accepting a target of 2°C global mean temperature rise

when this threshold is more than likely to be exceeded?

10. What should be the conservation strategy with regards to the habitats, biodiversity and

ecologies of built environments (given that 50% global population is urbanised)?

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Annex 2 Climate change adaptation pilot project in Langtang Valley, Nepal

The following elements provide an outline strategic plan for climate change adaptation in the

Langtang National Park and Buffer Zone. The project proposal arose from a field visit and

consultations with WWF-Nepal staff. The plan was also informed by a draft CARE/ WWF-

Nepal proposal for a collaborative climate change adaptation pilot project in Langtang

Valley. Furthermore, the plan is relevant to the PPA that WWF-UK has with DFID given the

anticipated benefit to poor people in vulnerable areas, and the scope for multi-stakeholder

networking and advocacy. Four phases are envisaged:

Phase I – REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES AND RAISING AWARENESS ON CLIMATE

CHANGE:

Facilitating capacity development of WWF-Nepal and key partners in: climate change

impacts, science and concepts, livelihoods & biodiversity linkages, climate adaptation

processes & outcomes. This might include reading groups, inter-actions with experts both

in Nepal and outside, short courses etc.

Establishing a ‘learning by doing’ process whereby activities towards climate adaptation

are assessed on a iterative basis collecting the views on success and failure from different

the people involved and affected by the activities. Chances to reflect on the effectiveness

of actions should be incorporated into the scheduled activities

Commissioning and using information from climate models on climate change projections

and downscaled impacts information relevant to the targeted region

Collating historic climate observation information from whatever sources are appropriate

– definitely to include the perceptions of elderly members of the communities in the

targeted region

Initiating additional climate observation procedures – to include setting up weather

stations (preferably in schools where students can learn to monitor weather and thereby

gain an appreciation of climate variability) and accessing data from existing weather

stations in the region – including the high altitude automated stations

Sharing information and collaborating on the interpretation of data - between the project

partners, through the channels of existing social organisations e.g. core zone management

committees, herders groups, buffer zone management committees and forest user groups.

Phase II - ASSESSING IMPACTS AND THE NEEDS FOR ADAPTATION:

Identify and assess the direct & indirect impacts on livelihoods systems and wellbeing of

people across the core and buffer zones using participatory appraisal methods

Identify and assess the direct & indirect impacts on indicator elements of ecosystem

biodiversity using adapted environmental impact assessment methods (guidelines are

being drawn up by the OECD-DAC)

Identify current adaptations by people and the current need for further adaptation

Identify how the ecosystem is adapting

Phase III – BUILDING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Provide climate change impacts information and assessments of adaptation to core &

buffer zone management structures

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Train key individuals in target zone in climate change issues and build awareness of wider

community – identify opportunities to emphasise awareness building with school students

Participatory scenario planning – using the climate change impacts and adaptation needs

assessments identify the ‘tipping points’ and ‘thresholds’ in both ecosystem biodiversity

and livelihood and wellbeing systems concentrating on the most vulnerable parts of both

eco- and social systems (using an adapted version of the ecosystems approach)

Identify future adaptation options for ecosystem and natural management, livelihood

activities and wellbeing for both short & longer terms

Pilot and validate adaptation options

Phase IV – ADAPTATION ACTIONS & LEARNING

Demand-led testing of adaptation options by households. The pilots will serve as

demonstrations for households that need to see adaptation processes and outcomes

Interventions by agencies that provide services that confer adaptation e.g. health and

sanitation for emerging diseases, clean energy provision

Participatory monitoring & evaluation (PM&E) of changes in livelihoods, wellbeing and

biodiversity due to adaptation

Feedback of PM&E information into adaptation decision and implementation processes

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Annex 3 Summary of options for Phase II of Towards a climate smart WWF

A3.1 As noted previously, this pilot study is a step towards scoping the scale of the

challenge presented by climate change to WWF’s operations. The project was intended to

raise awareness of anticipated climate threats and opportunities, and to identify options for

building capabilities for adaptation across the organisation.

A3.2 It is evident that WWF has been approaching climate change adaptation in a piece-

meal way. This has a number of risks and benefits (Box A3.1). However, to move from a

project-based, awareness raising mode of activity, to a more strategic and network-wide

responsive mode will require a programme-based approach, underpinned by long-term

resource commitments.

Box A3.1 Risks and benefits associated with different levels of resourcing for climate change adaptation

Options Risks Benefits

Do nothing Loss of credibility, income,

influence, lead; depleting natural

capital; marginalised by other

players; larger costs; actions do not

match rhetoric

Resources released for other

‘pressing’ issues

Project approach Piece-meal adaptation; responding

to shocks rather than reducing

risks; lack of capacity in key skill

sets

Trial some methods, learn lessons,

apply elsewhere; raise awareness

of some issues

Programme approach Opportunity costs; institutional

politics

Lever more resources; assess

greatest risks; build institutional

capacity; co-ordinate delivery;

monitor progress; higher visibility

A3.3 The following work packages cluster the main body recommendations into a Phase II

programme of activities (I) addressing network-wide knowledge gaps; (II) supporting

country-office adaptation activities; and (III) enabling organizational change:

Work Package I – ADDRESSING NETWORK-WIDE KNOWLEDGE GAPS

Address knowledge gaps on climate change impacts for key eco-regions and habitats in particular

for the Eastern Himalayas, Orinoco River and Yangtze basin.

Extend the existing top-down assessment to establish whether WWF’s global network of Priority

Places is exposed to a higher degree of risk from changes in sea level and ocean properties than

the global average.

Diagnose attributes of sites and species that are least affected by, or are most resilient to, recent

extreme weather events to shape adaptation practice, as well as design and manage protected

areas within Priority Places.

Establish monitoring systems to track rapid ecosystem change and transformation beyond tipping

points in Priority Places using “sentinel” environments (e.g., ephemeral water bodies, coastal

zone complexes, southern edge of grassland-scrub, etc).

Work Package II – SUPPORTING COUNTRY-OFFICE ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES

Provide guidance and screening tools that enable routine assessment of projects for climate

change adaptation and trace-gas sequestration, alongside ecosystem and livelihood criteria.

Establish a clear working definition of climate change adaptation under WWF projects and

programmes.

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Develop information sheets covering basic concepts, terminology and links to further resources.

Build institutional knowledge, through programmes of invited speakers and climate change

camps dealing explicitly with adaptation issues.

Draw together a coherent adaptation framework for the WWF network by understanding what

and how different offices are planning, implementing and monitoring for climate change

adaptation.

Source and direct funding and expertise towards building capacity and awareness within WWF,

in order to harness the commitment and potential of the organization to pioneer climate change

adaptation worldwide.

Capitalize on South-South capacity building by identifying examples of good practice at the local

scale, which can be generalized to other areas and fed up into policy frameworks, investment

decisions and funding institutions.

Incorporate a longer funding cycle into adaptation projects, addressing not only immediate but

longer-term threats, in order to account for the impacts of climate change.

Support planned work on climate change adaptation in country offices (such as WWF-Nepal)

where the need for training on climate scenario information and tipping point analyses are most

pressing.

Work Package III – ENABLING ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE

Task a senior executive to lead on adaptation, and support this climate change champion with a

technical advisory board.

Set out clearly defined adaptation objectives and positions.

Establish institutional architecture to facilitate organizational learning and change; specify

targets, monitoring indicators and report progress on adaptation.

Equip project managers and programme staff with tools and guidance on climate risk screening.

Embed portfolio screening within programme cycles, from inception and design, through to

implementation and evaluation.

Apply options appraisal to identify pathways of adaptation leading to “low regret” measures, i.e.,

those that make good sense whether or not climate change is a major concern.

Convey climate risks anticipated for Priority Places.

Establish demonstration field projects and pilot schemes help make adaptation in practice more

tangible.

Build on the portfolio of projects in WWF’s Defending Nature Against Climate Change to help

staff and stakeholders to better understand what adaptation really looks like.

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