One if by Land, Two if by Sea:Toward a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism

May 31, 2007

John Fenzel, COL, USA

The Lexington Alert System

In the Fall of 1774 and Winter of 1775 I was oneof upwards of thirty, chiefly mechanics, who formed our selves in to a Committee for the purpose of watching the Movements of the British Soldiers, and gaining every intelegence

ofthe movements of the Tories. We held our meetings at the Green-Dragon Tavern. We wereso carefull that our meetings should be kept Secret; that every time we met, every personswore upon the Bible, that they would not discover any of our transactions, But to Messrs.HANCOCK, ADAMS, Doctors WARREN,CHURCH, and one or two more.[sic]

-Paul Revere

“Among the many objects to

which a wise and free

people find it necessary to

direct their attention, that of

providing for their safety

seems to be the first.”

-The Federalist Papers

The Galveston Hurricane of 1900

The Dayton Warning System

The Public Warning Imperative

In sum, the domestic agencies never mobilizedin response to the threat. They did not have direction, and did not have a plan to institute. The borders were not hardened. Transportation systems were not fortified. Electronic surveillance was not targeted against a domestic threat. State and local law enforcement were

not marshaled to augment the FBI's efforts. The public was not warned.

The terrorists exploited deep institutional failings within our government. The question is whether extra vigilance might have turned up an opportunity to disrupt the plot.

-9/11 Commission Report

The AMBER Alert System

AMBER Alert is a proven success and has helped rescue more than 324 children nationwide. More than 90 percent of those recoveries have occurred since AMBER Alert became a nationally coordinated effort in 2002. With 50 statewide AMBER plans now in place, we are meeting President Bush's goal of a National AMBER Alert network. As the National AMBER Alert Coordinator, I am committed to ensuring that we have a strong and seamless network in place to protect our children.

-Regina B. Schofield, Assistant Attorney General Office of Justice Programs

White House Got Early Warning on KatrinaBy Joby WarrickWashington Post Staff WriterTuesday, January 24, 2006; A02

“In the 48 hours before Hurricane Katrina hit, the White House received detailed warnings about the storm'slikely impact, including eerily prescientpredictions of breached levees,massive flooding, and major losses oflife and property, documents show….”

Critiques of the HSAS

The first few initiatives of the new Department, rather than make us feel more secure, became material for late night comics. The Color Code System initially caused state and local authorities to spend millions of dollars that they did not have to respond to changes in the color, changes that were unaccompanied by any detailed threat information shared with local authorities. States and cities began to announce that they would no longer respond to changes in the color code…

-Richard A. Clarke

“I stay away from that! Good Luck!” -Richard A. Clarke

Threats to Effective Warning“Sometimes we disagreed

with the intelligence assessment…. Sometimes we thought even if the intelligence was good, you don't necessarily put the country on [alert]. ... There were times when some people were really aggressive about raising it, and we said, 'For that?’”

-Tom Ridge“This is more art than science. Wewant to ensure we’re achieving thedesired effect…that we don’t provideinformation to terrorists.”

-President Bush

Terror Plot Invokes SIRIUS Alert System

The first known use of the SIRIUS Emergency Alert Systemoccured this morning. On my drive this morning I was enjoying the Jay Thomas Show on Sirius Stars when an“Emergency Bulletin” came out regarding the terror plot thatwas foiled in London. The message stated the basic facts,gave an update as to the status of the alert code color, andreferred people to Fox News, CNN News, CNN HeadlineNews, or BBC World News. The message also gave out the appropriate Sirius channel numbers.

Posted by TulaneJeff on Thursday, August 10th, 2006 at 5:32 pm. (SIRIUS Backstage.com)

Three Phases of Public Warning

I. Preemption

II. Prevention

III. Mitigation

Point of

Attack

Recognition of

Incomplete Information

Notification of

Threat

Time

Toward a Strategic Framework of Public Warning

Point of

Attack

Recognition of Incomplete Information

Notification of

Threat

Infiltration within U.S. Borders

Targeted Warnings

Expanded Warnings

General Warnings

Ris

k

Time

Strategic Decision-Making in Warning for Terrorist Threats

John Boyd’s OODA Loop Model

Fielded Forces

Population

Infrastructure

System Essentials

Leadership

John Warden’s “Five Rings” System Model

Layers of Public Warning

U.S. Populace

First Responders

National Infrastructure

National Processes

National Leadership

Adapting Warden’s Five Rings

Creating a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism

Intelligence and Surveillance

Public Warning

Vulnerability Analysis

Prevention Mitigation

Preemption

PredictiveAnalysis

Instruments of Warning

Instruments of Public Warning Strategy

• EAS• NOAA• Secure/Open Comms• National

Communications System

• EAS• NOAA• Secure/Open Comms• National

Communications System• Secure Comms Systems• Clandestine Comms

• Secure Communications Systems

• Clandestine Communications

• National Communications System

Technical Communications

• HSC• DHS Operations

Center• WH Situation Room• SVTC (Fed Gvt,

States)• CSG• CTC• Security Clearances• Official Relationships• PEOC

• HSC• DHS Operations Center• WH Situation Room• SVTC (Fed Gvt, States)• CSG• CTC• Security Clearances• Official Relationships• PEOC

• HSC• DHS Operations

Center• WH Situation Room• SVTC (Fed Gvt,

States)• CSG• CTC• Security Clearances• Official Relationships• PEOC

Coordination

• HSAS• COOP/COG• Media/Internet• Vulnerability Analyses• Law Enforcement

Information Portals• Ready.gov

• HSAS• Media/Internet• Ready.gov• Vulnerability Analyses• Law Enforcement

Information Portals

• Law Enforcement Information Portals

• Vulnerability AnalysesPublic Warning

• Disaster Recovery Teams

• First Responders• National Guard• International

Partnerships• Interpol• Urban Search and

Rescue Teams• FESTs• Tipoff Watchlists• Undercover Teams• CIA

Operatives/Analysts• Law Enforcement/FBI

• NEST• Radiation Detection

Stations• CBIRF• First Responders• International

Partnerships• Interpol• Special Mission Units• Undercover Teams• CIA

Operatives/Analysts• Law Enforcement/FBI• Tipoff Watchlists

• Undercover Teams• CIA

Operatives/Analysts• Law Enforcement/FBI• International

Partnerships• Interpol• Special Mission Units• Tipoff Watchlists

Detection/Surveillance

MitigationPreventionPreemption

Predictive Analysis: -Intelligence -Surveillance

Yes(Attack)

Destroy Warden’s Five Rings

Detection/Notification of ThreatInternational or DomesticEarly to Mid Planning Stages

Sufficient Information?

Sufficient Capability?

No(Move to Prevention)

Functional Warning

Sector-Specific Warning

Delay - Disrupt

Predictive Analysis:

-Incomplete Information -Inadequate Capability

Vulnerability Analysis

Notification/Detection of Threat

Domestic Infiltration of Terror Cells

Advanced Planning Stages

Prioritize Objectives Using Warden’s Five Rings Model

Protect Sources and Methods

Public Safety

HSASEASNOAA MediaCOOP/COG

Domestic Incident ManagementAttack Imminent or in

Progress

Prioritize the Effort: Warden’s Five Rings

Coordinate with Federal, State, Local Authorities and Private Entities

Recommendations…

Create a National Commission for Public Warning

Establish a new policy of information conveyance aimed specifically at preemption, prevention and mitigation.

Recommend an operational strategy of public warning for terrorism.

Incorporate existing warning systems and programs into the public warning strategy.

Begin an aggressive campaign to eliminate barriers to information sharing.

Surprise, when it happens to a government, is likely to be a complicated, diffuse, bureaucratic thing. It includes neglect of Surprise, when it happens to a government, is likely to be a complicated, diffuse, bureaucratic thing. It includes neglect of responsibility, but also responsibility, but also responsibility so poorly defined or so ambiguously delegated that action gets lostresponsibility so poorly defined or so ambiguously delegated that action gets lost. It includes . It includes gaps ingaps inintelligenceintelligence, but also intelligence that, like a string of pearls too precious to wear, is , but also intelligence that, like a string of pearls too precious to wear, is too sensitive to give to those who need ittoo sensitive to give to those who need it. . It includes It includes the alarm that fails to workthe alarm that fails to work, but also , but also the alarm that has gone off so often it has been disconnectedthe alarm that has gone off so often it has been disconnected. It includes the. It includes theunalert watchmanunalert watchman, but also the one who knows he'll be chewed out by his superior if he gets higher authority out of bed. It , but also the one who knows he'll be chewed out by his superior if he gets higher authority out of bed. It includes the includes the contingencies that occur to no onecontingencies that occur to no one, but also , but also those that everyone assumes somebody else is taking care ofthose that everyone assumes somebody else is taking care of. It . It includes straightforward includes straightforward procrastinationprocrastination, but also , but also decisions protracted by internal disagreementdecisions protracted by internal disagreement. It includes, in addition, the . It includes, in addition, the inability of individual human beings to rise to the occasioninability of individual human beings to rise to the occasion until they are sure it is the occasion-which is usually too late. . . . until they are sure it is the occasion-which is usually too late. . . .

-Thomas Schelling (-Thomas Schelling (Pearl Harbor: Warning and DecisionPearl Harbor: Warning and Decision )

Conclusions…