tourism towards 2030 - world tourism...

Tourism Towards 2030

Agenda Item 5a 24th Joint Meeting of the UNWTO Commission for East Asia and the Pacific and the UNWTO Commission for South Asia 4 May 2012 Chiang Mai, Thailand

International tourist arrivals

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

mill

ion Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

Actual 1995-2010*

881 mn

Tourism 2020 Vision vs. actual trend

World

528 mn

940 mn

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Tourism Towards 2030

• A broad research project of long-term forecasting, following up on work initiated by UNWTO in the 1990s

• Objectives: – Assist UNWTO Members in formulating policies and long-term strategic plans

– Provide a global reference on future tourism development

– Reinforce UNWTO’s role in agenda setting for tourism-related subjects

– Constitute a reference for UNWTO strategic documents, programme of work and activities

• Central to the study are the projections for international tourism flows in the two decades 2010-2030 – Data series on international tourist arrivals as reported by destination countries are

used as the key indicator, taking into account subregion of destination, region of origin, mode of transport and purpose of visit for the period 1980-2010

– The quantitative forecast is based on a causal econometric model with international tourist arrivals as the dependent variable. Two independent variables are used: 1) growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential; 2) cost of transport.

Growth in international tourism will continue,

but at a more moderate pace

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

66

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

Average growth 2010-2030

3.3% a year

2010-2020

3.8% a year

2020-2030

2.9% a year

International tourist arrivals to increase

by 43 million a year on average

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million


8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Average increase 2010-2030

43 million a year

2010-2020

42 mn a year

2020-2030

45 mn a year

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to reach

1.8 billion by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

1.4 bn

Emerging economy destinations to surpass

advanced destinations in 2015

Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, million


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will gain most

of the new arrivals

Africa

Middle East

Americas

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

Asia and the Pacific, the Middle East

and Africa to increase their shares

Africa

3%

Americas

23%


8%

Europe

63%

Middle East

3%

Middle East

6%

Europe

51%


22%

Americas

16%

Africa

5%

Africa

7%

Americas

14%


30%

Europe

41%

Middle East

8%

1980 (277 mn)

2010 (940 mn)

2030 (1.8 bn)

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated, million

Europe


Americas

Middle East

Africa


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific will also be the

outbound region that grows most

Europe generates most arrivals relative to

population, while Asia & Pacific is still low

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals generated per 100 population


9

2

14

3

36

6

14

3

17

5

57

1722

6

24

12

89

25

61

12

1

21

6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

World Africa Americas Asia and the

Pacific

Europe Middle East

1980 1995 2010 2030

No major change in share by purpose of visit

International tourism by purpose of visit International Tourist Arrivals, million

Leisure, recreation and holidays

VFR, health, religion, other

Business and professional


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Air transport will continue to increase

market share, but at a slower pace

International tourism by means of transport International Tourist Arrivals, million

by air

over surface


0

250

500

750

1,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and

the Pacific

International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year


16

8

4

2

1112 12

14

16

1

14

3

13

1011

3

10

-1 0

11

12

5

8

-10

27

8 8

10

1

-2

13

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

Growth in international tourism to continue

at an average rate of almost 5% a year

Average growth 2010-2030

4.9% a year

2010-2020

5.7% a year

2020-2030

4.2% a year

International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million


32

1 1

3 3 45

7

1

7

2

86

8

2

8

-1 0

9

12

5

9

-12

30

1112

16

2

-3

23

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International tourist arrivals to increase

by 17 million a year on average

Average increase 2010-2030

17 million a year

2010-2020

15 mn a year

2020-2030

18 mn a year

International Tourism, Asia and the Pacific International tourist arrivals, million

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific : Intl tourist arrivals still

to grow from 200 mn to over 500 mn

204 mn

535 mn

355 mn

Asia and thePacific: Inbound tourism by subregion of destination International tourist arrivals, million

North-East Asia

South-East Asia

South Asia

Oceania


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific by subregion

International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average annual growth %


6.6

7.5

6.1

7.7

6.2

6.8

4.8

6.5

10.5

7.4

3.3

2.4

3.7

2.4

2.1

3.2

1.3

6.0 5.95.8

5.25.1 4.9

4.6 4.6 4.64.3

3.1

2.42.3

2.01.8 1.8 1.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

South

Asia

Wes

t and

Cen

tral A

frica

East A

frica

Centra

l Am

erica

South

-Eas

t Asia

North

-Eas

t Asia

South

Am

erica

North

Afri

ca

Midd

le Eas

t

South

ern

Africa

Centra

l/Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Ocean

ia

South

ern/

Med

iter.

Eu.

Caribb

ean

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

North

ern

Europ

e

North

Am

erica

1995-2010

2010-2030

South Asia subregion with fastest growth (%)

International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, average absolute change over previous year, million


4.7

2.8

4.7

3.1

2.5

2.8

1.2

0.8 0.8

0.5 0.5

1.5

0.60.3 0.4 0.4

0.2

9.1

5.9

4.8

4.4

4.1

3.4

2.01.7

1.41.3 1.2 1.2

0.8 0.7 0.70.5

0.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

North

-Eas

t Asia

South

-Eas

t Asia

South

ern/

Med

iter.

Eu.

Midd

le Eas

t

Centra

l/Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

North

Am

erica

South

Am

erica

North

Afri

ca

East A

frica

South

Asia

North

ern

Europ

e

South

ern

Africa

Wes

t and

Cen

tral A

frica

Centra

l Am

erica

Caribb

ean

Ocean

ia

1995-2010

2010-2030

NE Asia subregion with fastest growth (abs.)

North-East Asia will be the most visited

subregion in 2030 International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals, million


41

98

112

28

58

14

81

36

127 5 4

14

4 3 28

112

169

154

70

95

61

98

58

2419

12 11

20

138 7

12

293

264

222

187

176

149

138

82

58

46

37 3630 29

22 2219

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

North

-Eas

t Asia

South

ern/

Med

iter.

Eu.

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

South

-Eas

t Asia

Centra

l/Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Midd

le Eas

t

North

Am

erica

North

ern

Europ

e

South

Am

erica

North

Afri

ca

East A

frica

South

Asia

Caribb

ean

South

ern

Africa

Centra

l Am

erica

Wes

t and

Cen

tral A

frica

Ocean

ia

1995

2010

2030

International tourism by (sub)region of destination International tourist arrivals received per 100 of population


62

47

42

38

15

9 9

28

8 86

21

3 42

1 0

81

71

63

48

2527

22

32

19

15

12

21

76

42 1

114

103

80

65

47 47 46

4038

2827 26

18

13

7

32

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wes

tern

Eur

ope

South

ern/

Med

iter.

Eu.

North

ern

Europ

e

Caribb

ean

Centra

l/Eas

tern

Eur

ope

Midd

le Eas

t

South

ern

Africa

Ocean

ia

Centra

l Am

erica

North

Afri

ca

South

-Eas

t Asia

North

Am

erica

North

-Eas

t Asia

South

Am

erica

East A

frica

Wes

t and

Cen

tral A

frica

South

Asia

1995

2010

2030

Europe continues to lead in international

arrivals received per 100 of population

Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by purpose of visit International tourist arrivals, million

Leisure, recreation and holidays

VFR, health, religion, other

Business and professional


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific: leisure to grow fastest

Asia and the Pacific, International tourism by means of transport International tourist arrivals, million

by air

over surface


0

100

200

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific: air and surface transport

to grow at about the same pace

Share in

the world

Inbound tourism by region of destination International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

Europe


Americas

Middle East

Africa


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific inbound tourism market

share of going up due to faster growth

Outbound tourism by region of origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

Europe


Americas

Middle East

Africa


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asia and the Pacific outbound tourism also

growing at a faster pace

International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

within same region

between regions


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Travel between regions continues to grow

slightly faster than within the same region

Asia and the Pacific: Inbound tourism by region of origin International tourist arrivals, million


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bulk of arrivals in Asia and the Pacific

intraregional, mkt shares not to vary much

Africa

Middle East

Americas

Europe


Market share of Asia and the Pacific in regional outbound markets International tourist arrivals, share, %

from Asia and the Pacific to Asia and the Pacific

from Americas to Asia and the Pacific

from Europe to Asia and the Pacific

from Middle East to Asia and the Pacific

from Africa to Asia and the Pacific


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

… but Asia and the Pacific is increasing

share in outbound travel from all regions

International tourism by region of destination and origin International Tourist Arrivals, share, %

from Africa to other regions

from Middle East to other regions

from Asia and the Pacific to other regions

from Americas to other regions

from World between regions

from Europe to other regions


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Travel from emerging markets more often to

same region, Europe more often outside

Round-up

What if assumptions change?

Tourism Towards 2030: global projection and sensitivity analysis International Tourist Arrivals, million


0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Actual data 1980-2010

Transport costs continue to fall (scenario 3)

Central projection

Faster rising cost of transport (scenario 2)

A slower-than-expected economic recovery and future growth (Scenario 1)

Tourism Towards 2030 in one page

• Global growth in international tourist arrivals to continue, but at a more moderate pace, from 4.2% per year (1980–2020) to 3.3% (2010–2030), as a result of four factors:

– The base volumes are higher, so smaller % increases still add substantial numbers

– Lower GDP growth, as economies mature

– A lower elasticity of travel to GDP

– A shift from falling transport costs to increasing ones

• Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still a great potential for further expansion in coming decades; emerging as well as established destinations can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the adequate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources

• Along with opportunities, challenges also arise in maximising social and economic benefits and minimising negative impacts

Long-term tourism growth pattern: more moderate, sustainable and inclusive

Opportunities and challenges:

how to make it possible Five key areas that mark the future:

• For many countries tourism represents a powerful tool for social and economic development and the reduction of poverty through the creation of job and enterprises, infrastructure development and the export revenues earned

• In order to tap into this potential, it is essential to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda

• Sustainability (social, economic and environment) is more important than ever, addressing issues such as energy dependency, climate change adaptation and mitigation, green economy, congestion management and risk management

• Keep track of the changing consumer: more experienced and demanding customers, demographic change (ageing, migration and diversification of family structure), changing values and lifestyles, from service economy to experience economy, etc.

• Enhance competitiveness by shaping an adequate business environment: innovation, diversification of products, markets and segments, product development, ICT and technology in general, marketing and promotion, research, evaluation, human resources development, quality, etc.

Tourism towards

2030 /

Global Overview

Thank you very much

for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org

tourism towards 2030 - world tourism...

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