tourism employment proxy and multipliers – ppse case · 2 why ppse developed employment proxy...
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Tourism Employment Proxy and Multipliers – PPSE case
Nairobi,Feb222018FisnikBajrami(PPSEProjectSwisscontact)
Context & Terminology
1PromotingPrivateSectorEmployment
TourismFoodProcessing
€€€ €€
SerbiaMontenegro
Albania Macedonia
1PPSE-Tourism
Int.Area2: InternationalPromotion
Int.Area3: LocalPromotion
Int.Area4: TourismStatistics
DevelopmentofTourismProductsandcoaching
PressFamiliarizationTrip
PrishtinaTourismFair-EKSplorer
FairParticipationintheUK,Germany,Turkeyand
France
Destinationmanagement,coordination,networking,promotion
andPublic-Privatedialogue
Familiarizationtrip
TailoredpackagesandB2BlinkswithTOsintheUK,Italy,Turkey,Serbiaand
Albania
Capacitybuildingfor
ASK
Improvedstatisticsforaccommodationsand
internationalarrivals Int.Area1:
DestinationManagement Organization
2WhyPPSEdevelopedemploymentproxy&multipliers• Lackofdocumentedexistingexperiences
• Thenecessityoffindingapracticalandcosteffectiveapproachformonitoring
• Impactcontributionvs.attribution
• Toassessandreportthewiderimpactoftourism
• Lackofofficialstatistics/datainKosovo
2TourismDevelopmentImpact
Moretourists,longerstaysandhigher
spendinglevelsinthedestination
TourismSMEs(accommodation,restaurants,tour
operators,attractionsetc.)benefitfromhigherturnover
MorepeopleareemployedintourismSMEsearnmore
incometogetherwithexistingemployees
TourismSMEsbuymoreinputfromlocal
suppliers,whoexpandproductionandemployment
Localeconomyexperienceshigher
turnoverandemploymentbythoseemployeddirectlyand
indirectly
Publicandprivateinvestmentis
increasedfortourismdevelopment
€
Touroperator
Source:basedon:WTTC.SCvisualization.
Tourists
Tourist>tourismbusiness=>Directeffects
Localfarmer
Tourismbusiness>Supplychainbusiness=>IndirecteffectsBusinesses’staff>Economy=>Inducedeffects
€ HotelReceptionist
Farmer’sson
€
€
Totaleffectsoftourism∑
Proxy
Multipliers
€
2Terminology:Direct–Indirect–InducedEffectsofTourism
3HowPPSEdevelopedtheemploymentproxy
DirectImpactà
3AttributionIMPACTLOGIC
INTERVENTION:INTERNATIONALPROMOTION
2.PPSEandEMPOWERorganizeFAM-Tripwithinternationaltouroperatorsandjournalists
4.IntJournalistsvisitKosovo
7.JournalistspromotesKosovoin
int.media
5.InttouroperatorsvisitKosovo
8.Int.touroperatorsmeetlocaltouroperators
andsignbusinessagreementsforselling
Kosovopackages
1.PPSEpartnerswithKIESAforsupportingKosovotourismbusinessforparticipatinginfairsintheUKGermanyFranceandTurkey
3.PPSEsupportstourismbusinesswithfairparticipationandmanagementservicesthroughinternationalandlocalexperts
9.Kosovotouroperatorsandotherstakeholdersignbusinessagreementswithinternationaltravelagencies
6.KosovotouroperatorsandotherstakeholderexhibitandengageinB2BexchangesatthefairsinUK,Germany,France&Turkey
16.Totaladditionalnetincomeincrease
17.Totaladditionalnetemploymentincrease
12.MoreTouristarriveinKosovo
15.Touroperators,restaurantsandaccommodationsincreaseincomeandemployment
13.TouriststaylongerinKosovo
10.InternationalTouroperatorspromoteandsellnewoffersinclusiveofKosovo
11.MoreTouristpurchaseproduct/offerstovisitKosovo
14.Touroperators,restaurantsandaccommodationscatertomoretourists
3Employmentproxycalculation• AnnualSupplySideSurvey–directinterviewswithalltourismrelated
SMEsinthedestination(WesternKosovo)• Accommodations
• FoodandDrinksproviders
• Souvenirshops
• Transportationcompanies
• Touroperatorsandguides
• Attractions
• CalculationandestimationofrevenuesandemploymentdatafromAccommodationsandFoodandDrinksproviders
3TourismEmploymentProxy
ACCOMMODATIONS
Year FTE NumberofOvernights Revenue Revenueto
Job
2013 385 31,425 €2,751,000 €7,150
2014 458 32,832 €2,874,700 €6,270
2015 399 50,863 €3,405,100 €8,500
FOODANDDRINKSPROVIDERS
Year FTE NumberofVisitors Revenue Revenue
toJob
2013 473 3,317,704 €11,806,200 €24,900
2014 508 4,430,400 €15,765,780 €31,000
2015 600 5,527,980 €16,953,727 €28,200
• Forevery€7,300oftouristspendinganewfulltimeequivalentjobisgeneratedinhotels/accommodations• 10%potentialvariation(from€6,750to€8,250oftouristspending)
• Forevery€28,000oftouristspendinganewfulltimeequivalentjobisgeneratedinfoodanddrinksproviders.• 5%potentialvariation(from€28,000to€31,000oftouristspending)
Revenue/FTE Revenue/FTE
3TourismEmploymentProxy(additionaljobsbasedonmarginalrevenues)
10FTEs 12FTEs +2FTEs
$100,000revenues $150,000revenues +$50,000revenues
1FTE/$10,000 1FTE/$12,500 +1FTE/+$25,000
YEAR1 YEAR2 Marginal
4HowPPSEdevelopedthemultipliers
Indirect&InducedImpactà
4WorldTravel&TourismCouncil(WTTC)
• Factorsanalyzedinitially(importdependency,governmentpromotion,geography,similar
touriamoffers,etc.)
• Lowestintheregion(Montenegro)
IncomeContribution
Country Direct Indirect InducedIndirectMultiplier
InducedMultiplier
Montenegro297 222 99 0.75 0.33
Serbia61 89 32 1.45 0.53
Macedonia
6 13 4 2.13 0.65
Albania78 110 50 1.40 0.64
Employmentcontribution
Direct Indirect InducedIndirectMultiplier
InducedMultiplier
13
9
4 0.73 0.33
34
35
14 1.04 0.42
7
5 5 2.13 0.70
51
98
35 1.91 0.69
5ApplicationofResultsandLessonsLearnt
5ResultsandInterpretation
Reporting
1285x2x40=102,800EUR
DirectImpact
Indirect=14FTEs*.73=10.22FTEs
Induced=14FTEs*.33=4.62FTEs
Totaleffectsoftourism=28.8FTEs∑
1285x2x20=51,400EUR
Accommodations=€102,800/€8,250=12.4FTEsFoodandDrinksproviders=€51,400/€31,000=1.6FTEs
5Measurementofemploymentdirectly
Directbeneficiary–e.g.TourOperators
Annualinterviewswithdirectbeneficiaries
Direct(indirect)beneficiary
5Lessonslearnt
• Itisdifficulttogetreliableandconsistentannualdata
• Calculationofadditional/marginalvalueswillrequiremoreresources/expertise
• Calculationofproxybeyondtheprojectlocation(westernKosovo)willrequirelocationspecificdatacollection
• Fieldevidencetosupportthegrowthofindirect&inducedjobsisdifficulttocapture
5Wayforward
• Replicatethemethodologyinothertourismprojects
• FurtheranalysisbetweentouristSpendingVsPurchase
• Categorizationofhotels,restaurantsetc.tocapturemarginalrevenue
• Impactwheel,qualitativeassessments,timelagetc.
Thank you!
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