© Carlo Aall

Tourism climate change challengeSeminar Norsk Friluftsliv 11. mai 2017

Eivind BrendehaugResearcher Vestlandsforsking

Outline

� Do we have a problem?

� Tourism contribution to climate change

� Consequences for “friluftsliv”

� Tourism policy and climate change

� Tourism and “friluftsliv” for the future

The challenge, tourism is a part of it� Main messages in the fifth main

report (2013): Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 for all scenarios

� Limiting climate change will require substantial reductions of GHG emissions from all sectors, also tourism

� Tourism is characterized by rapid emission growth, doubling of emissions by 2035 expected (compared to 2010)

� Rapid growth in air travel, car and accommodation capacity

The «adjustment-window» on mitigation

Source: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/n7242/full/nature08017.html and recalculations done by Helge Drange (http://www.vestforsk.no/filearchive/helge-drange-presentasjon.pdf)

Consequenses of postponing global GHG gass reduction means needed to achive a global goal of maximum 2 degrees global temperature rize

If we wait until 2025by implementing new GHG reduction means other than what exists today, we have to implement means that allows for 90 % or more reduction per year; which means we then have to move from “adjusting” to “transforming” societyG

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l CH

G-e

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sion

s (G

t-C)

Tourism contribution to climate change

Actual and expected growth in global GHG emissions from tourism

Gössling and Peters, 2014: Assessing tourism global environmental impact 1900-2050. Journal of Sustainable Tourism

Business as usual

What contributes the most within “tourism”?

Hille, J., Aall, C., Klepp, I.G. (2007): Miljøbelastninger fra norsk fritidsforbruk – en kartlegging. VF-rapport 1/07. Sogndal

Direct and indirect energy use embedded in tourism consumption inland and abroad by Norwegians (2005)

Hotels etc

Travel by private care

Travel by air

Public transportation

Food

«Experiences»Travel to the destination is not up for discussion

Også friluftslivet bidreg til klimagassutslepp

Spania, Hellas, Italia, Jordan og Nord-Kypros er populære steder å reise på fottur til, men også Kilimanjaro, Nepal og Island har høy stjerne, forteller Moland.https://www.nrk.no/livsstil/na-har-det-blitt-supertrendy-a-

reise-pa-gaferie-1.13477984

Understanding technology: relative vs absolute emission growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

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3.0

3.5

4.0

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Glo

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ion

emis

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s (M

ton/

yr)

Ener

gy In

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J/as

k)

Year of market introduction

Long haul aircraft fuel efficiency

IPCC values Sigmoidal regression A380

Piston powered airliners Additional jet airliners A350XWB

B787 Global aviation emissions

Peeters, P., Higham, J., Kutzner, D., Cohen, S. and Gössling, S. 2015. Are technology myths stalling aviation climate policy? Transportation Research Part D, submitted

Consequences for «friluftsliv» and tourism

And the climate has already changed!Number of days with good skiing conditions in “Nordmarka” outside of Oslo

www.met.no

Snow reliability – Business as usual 2030s

Project: Climateadaptation in tourism. VestlandsforskingR. Steiger

Ski slopes in Norway

Loss of landscape qualities

Source: http://www.skogoglandskap.no/filearchive/cultour.pdf

Loss of landscape qualities from “more forest” due to climate change

Loss of glaciers, e.g Briksdalen and Nigardsbreen

Tourism policy and climate change� The Norwegian 2007 tourism strategy:

� «Transport er en av de viktigste miljøutfordringene for mange deler av reiselivet (…) Reiselivet må bidra til at Norges ambisiøse målsetninger om å redusere utslipp av klimagasser nås».

� The Norwegian 2012 tourism strategy: «Reiselivsnæringen bør (…) tilstrebe lave utslipp av klimagasser (…)».

� Meld. St. 19 (2016–2017):Opplev Norge – unikt og eventyrlig� « (…) hyppigere forekomster av ekstremvær som flom og sterk vind». � «Utslipp fra (…) flytrafikken er redusert pga mer energieffektive fly. Økt trafikk har

likevel gjort at klimagassutslippene fra luftfart har økt samlet sett� «Bruk av mer miljøvennlig drivstoff og energieffektive skip er nøkkelfaktorer for å

redusere utslipp fra skipsfart».� Oppsummering: «Regjeringen vil (….) arbeide for at cruisenæringen reduserer utslipp

av klimagasser og sin lokale forurensning».

� Why this lack of consistence? A mean (economy) has become aim!

Sustainable development two aims:

Ecological conditions Social conditions

Sustainable development

Ecologicalsustainability:

Maintain all ecological life-

support systems

Social sustainabilityMaintain the basicneeds of everybodytoday (global justice) and for futuregenerations(generational justice)

Tourism and friluftsliv for the future:

Travel shorter, slowler and more seldom (but you can stay longer)

Makes the trip an experience!

The importance of transport means

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Tog Noreg

Buss

Passasjerbil (diesel)

Passasjerbil (bensin)

Boeing 737 utland

Boeing 737 innland

Dash 8–100

Vekta gjennomsnitt cruise

Tran

spor

tmid

del

Gram CO2 utslipp per passasjerkilometer

Gössling, S., Aall, C., Vik, M. L., Engeset, A. B., Ekström, F., Brendehaug, E., & Walnum, H.-J. (2010). Sustainable Destination Norway 2025 Rapport. Sogndal: Vestlands

12 46 57

1116

1910

Train Bus Car Air Cruise

Emissions in kg CO2/trip

Weighted overall average: 323 kg CO2/trip

126 218 300 370

821

2358

< 500 km 500-999 km 1,000-1,499 km 1,500-1,999 km 2,000-9,999 km 10,000 km +

Air trips by distance class German speaking population

3.61 m1,072 km

5.44 m1,528 km

32.11 m1,298 km

27.13 m3,175 km

0.97 m

Gössling, S., Lohmann, M., Grimm, B. (2017). German holiday transport patterns: Insights for climate policy, submitted

Emissions in kg CO2/trip

Trips from 2000 km

mostnumbers

Cruise: few trips but largest

emission volume

million trips

Return distance (km)

Emission factor(kg CO2/pkm)

Emissions per trip (kg)***

CO2 emissions

(Mt) %

Train 3.61 1,072 0,011 12 0.043 0.2

Bus 5.44 1,528 0,030 46 0.249 1.1

Car 32.11 1,298 0,044 57 1.834 8.1

Air <500 km 0.2 690 0,183 126 0.025 0.1

500-999 1.46 1,558 0,137 218 0.311 1.4

1,000-1,499 6.61 2,582 0,116 300 1.979 8.7

1,500-1,999 5.04 3,429 0,108 370 1.858 8.2

2,000-9,999 12.47 8,289 0.099 821 10.238 45.0

10,000 km> 1.35 23,817 0.099 2,358 3.183 14.0

Cruise 0.97 - 169 kg/day 1,910 2.502 11.0

Ship* 0.34 1,000 0.350 350 0.119 0.5

Other** 0.65 804 0.005 4 0.003 0.0

Total 70.3 - - 323 22.733 100,0

CO2-emissions by main transport mode, 2014

Gössling, S., Lohmann, M., Grimm, B. (2017). German holiday transport patterns: Insights for climate policy, submitted

Conclusion� Carbon intensive travel, mainly air, car and cruise

contribute most to GHG

� Rapid growth in long distances and travel frequency (habits) increase GHG emission

� Climate change creates consequences to tourism and «friluftsliv»

� With increasing long travel tourists the tourism industry has been more vulnerable for an offensive climate policy

� National and international policy measures need to stimulate:� Shorter and slower travel, and more seldom (but you can stay

longer)� If not, we undermine the basis of tourism and “friluftsliv”