total and the photovoltaic solar market kazenergy 2011 - astana
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Total and the Photovoltaic Solar Market KAZENERGY 2011 - ASTANA. GILLES PERROT . The rationale for solar energy. 2 500. An unlimited and gigantic source of Energy. A clean source of power. 1. 2. CO2 emissions (Kg CO2/KWh). Source greenit.fr. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GILLES PERROT
Total and the Photovoltaic Solar Market
KAZENERGY 2011 - ASTANA
A medium-term competitive energy
An unlimited and gigantic source of Energy A clean source of power
A source of energy spread across the whole planet
Levels of sunshine on Earth: the countries of the North and South have the necessary resources
The rationale for solar energy
1
Advantages
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1990 2000 2010
Solar Photovoltaic Production costs per Watt (in $)
x1/100 Current cost reduction trend:
-5%/y.
The sun delivers the equivalent of 10000 times the current global energy consumption
Solar energy relies on strong drivers which will turn it into a key source of energy in the long-term
2
3 4
Solar power is expected to achieve competitiveness with the power grid retail price (“grid parity”) in many regions
The level of CO2 emissions/kWh from a solar PV system is between 4 to 10 times less compared to a
traditional fossil fueled power plant
2 500
0,11
0,43
0,88 0,890,98
Solar PV Combined cycle gas turbine
Natural gas Fuel Coal
CO2 emissions (Kg CO2/KWh)
Source greenit.fr
2010 2020 2030
Total high scenario Total base scenario
Estimated solar market segments breakdown
Grid parity speeding up market growth
source : Total
Estimated worldwide solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity
Capturing solar market growth
GW
Off grid3%
Solar farms 33%
Commercial rooftops33%
Residential rooftops31%
(Average 2011-2021)
3
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
20 to 25% of annual growth
until 2020
5% of the world electric
production in 2030
400 GW
900 GW
Competitiveness with conventional electricity
Estimated grid parity - Residential
Solar rooftop systems expected to become competitive without subsidies for most OECD residents by 2020
0.15
0.05
€/kWh
20202010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Southern Italy
0.25
0.15
0.05
€/kWh
20202010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Germany
4
The 3 PV technologies
Crystalline silicon Thin films Organic PV
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules represent around 85%
of the global annual market today
Thin Films modules represent around 15% of the global annual
market today
Emerging technologies entering the market via niche
applications
efficiency, reliability+cost, technical constraints-
cost, technical constraints +
efficiency-
cost, technical constraints +life duration, efficiency-
5
~ 99.9999% pure
Focus on the crystalline silicon PV chain
Si
~50% of SI loss
Si solar Wafers Cells Modules Systems
Base chemicals Specialist chemistry &electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering, Installation
~16% efficiency 1KWc ~ 10m2
Applications
Si metal.
~ 25% of the earth surface
98.5 to 99.9%
4 leverages
Critical size Low cost country
Vertical Integration Techno differentiation
Leverages of competitiveness:
6
Focus on TOTAL’s Assets
Applications
~ 99.9999% pure
Si
~50% of SI loss
Si solar Wafers Cells Modules Systems
Base chemicals Specialist chemistry &electronics industry
Assembly, Engineering, Installation
~16% efficiency 1KWc ~ 10m2
Si metal.
~ 25% of the earth surface
98.5 to 99.9%
7
TOTAL’s Assets
(OPV)
Company Overview
Created in 1985, SunPower is based in San Jose, California.
SunPower is one of the world’s leading solar PV players:
• Integrated player from ingots to systems installation.• High efficiency mono-c-Si cells (reached 24.2%) and modules.• Large scale manufacturing in Asia (reaching c. 2GW in 2014).• A strong downstream position in the U.S. / Europe with a 4GW pipeline.
Key Figures:
• 2010 Sales: $2.2bn• More than 5000 employees• 60% owned by TOTAL as of the14th of June
A worldwide leader which successfully handles its growth
ModulesCellsWafers
UPP
Through JVs
IngotsSilicon Commercial
Residential
Focus on SunPower
8