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Toronto Future Blue Bin Project
Vincent Sferrazza, City of Toronto
Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental
OWMA AGM 2nd March, 2011
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Presentation Outline
Vincent Sferrazza – Introduction to Project and How Information from Toronto Future Blue Bin Study was used in Strategic Business Planning Process
Maria Kelleher –Toronto Future Blue Bin Study Research
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SWMS – Customer/Client Base
450,000 single unit homes
452,000 multi-unit homes
20,000 small commercial/institutional
6,000 litter/recycle bins / 1,000 Special Events Per Year
City Agencies, Boards, Commissions & Divisions
Private commercial and industrial waste accepted at Transfer Stations and Landfill
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2011 Approved Operating Budget by Service Gross Expenditure
(in Millions)
Gross Expenditure - $342.6M
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Summary of 2011 Capital Expenditures by Project ($122.5M)
Diversion Facilities & Systems, $82.5M,
68%
Collection Yard Asset Management,
$4.3M,
3%
Perpetual Care of Closed Landfill,
$10.6M,
9%
Transfer Station Asset Management,
$8.9M,
7%
Green Lane Landfill,
$16.2M,
13%
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2011 Revenue Sources ($342.6M)
Volume Based Rate Revenue
$239.6M,
70%
Sale of Recyclable Materials
$19.6M,
6%
City of Toronto - Waste Fees
$39.0M,
12%
WDO Funding
$14.7M,
4%
Paid Commercial Waste
$17.9M,
5%
Internal Recoveries & Other
$8.0M,
2%
Other External Revenue
$3.8M,
1%
Includes all Service Level Changes and excludes New and Enhanced
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Residential Bag Tag Fees
Residential Bag Tag Fee (per Bag Tag) Percentage Change
Bag Tag $3.10 0.0%
2011 Residential Bulk Collection Fees
Fee Structure Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost
Small Bin - Base Fee $191.30 $185.00 $6.30
Fee for excess waste: un-compacted (per cubic yard) $13.27 $13.27
Fee for excess waste: compacted (per cubic yard) $26.55 $26.55
2011 Residential Curbside Collection Fees
Bin Size Bin Fee Rebate Net Cost
Small Bin $221.16 $224 $2.84 credit
Medium Bin $271.93 $224 $47.93
Large Bin $369.31 $224 $145.31
Extra Large Bin $428.36 $224 $204.36
Based on a 3.00% SWM annual rate increase:
Approved 2011 Residential Solid Waste Fees
*Effective Rate March 1, 2011 is 3.6%
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Background to Toronto Future Blue Bin Study
10-year Business Plan being developed
Need to understand materials and amounts in the future Blue Bin for business planning
Materials in Blue Bin are changing
Lifestyles and packaging are changing
Toronto Residential Garbage, Green Bin and Blue Bin tonnages all lower 2009 vs 2008
Need to understand what is going on and why
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Toronto Future Blue Bin Study
If Blue Bin material changes (e.g. more plastics, less newspapers)
Impacts on collection system
MRF designs need to change
Material revenues will be affected
Business Planning needs to take account of cost implications
High level study to provide directional information
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Toronto Blue Bin Material Revenues
71% to 75% of revenues from paper
ONP 31% of bale
10% of revenues from aluminum
10% to 12% of revenues from HDPE and PET
If paper decreasing, impacts on revenues could be significant
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Toronto Future Blue Bin Project Research
Maria Kelleher, Kelleher Environmental
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Future Blue Bin Project Elements
Research future lifestyles
Research future packaging trends
Carry out “packaging audit”
Develop projections of Blue Bin tonnages and composition by material
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Predicting the Future Is Challenging The Dilbert Future
Read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or crystal balls
Put well researched facts into sophisticated models
Bigger picture – life is changing and will continue to change
The future is not “more of the same” – not just faster computers, high tech cars, smarter homes, more TV channels
Large body of work by “futurists” used for this study
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Review of Literature on the Future Futurists:
Centre for Future Studies; The Futurist
Forum for the Future; World Future Society, etc
More traditional literature: Canadian Food Trends to 2020
The Future Consumer (Capgemini, UK)
The Future of Consumer Products Industry (IBM Global)
Twilight of the American Newspaper
The MRF of Tomorrow,
Demographic Trends, etc.
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Societal and Demographic Trends
The Internet has changed everything
Aging Canadians – we are living longer
Evolving Households…smaller households
Fewer Children
More 1-person households
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Lifestyle Trends
Changing meal patterns – fewer family dinners
Shifting expenditures – more take away food
Newer faces in Canada – larger variety of foods
More food shopping via internet – more food packaging
Convenience is king… • Re-sealable packages
• More ready to eat meals
• More plastic packaging
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The Death of Newspapers
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Growth in US Internet Sales (as % of total sales)
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Growth in Canadian Internet Sales ($ billion per year)
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Printed Paper Trends in Future Blue Bin
1. Decline in newspaper generation and recovery
2. Reduction in telephone directory distribution
3. Home offices/working at home/printers in every home
1. – increase in fine paper
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Packaging Trends Light-weighting
Increase in multi-layer packaging
Material substitution (mostly plastic replacing glass, Al, steel)
More fruits/veg packaged in thermoform plastic
SUPs (stand up pouches)
Re-sealable packaging
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Lifestyle and Packaging Changes
More smaller single serve packages
More snack packaging
More ready cooked meals and take out packaging (in thermoform plastic)
Brand owner and retailer led initiatives
Sustainable packaging
Smart packaging – can tell when food is beginning to decay
Increase in bio-based packaging
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Lifestyle and Packaging Changes on Future Blue Bin
Relative amounts of fibre and containers will change over time
More plastic, less paper
Newsprint amounts will decrease over time
Toronto ONP down 15% 2008 to 2009
OCC will increase over time
Amount of plastic packaging will increase
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Packaging Audits
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Background To Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits
Identify extent to which consumer items purchased in Toronto stores were in packaging which is:
Recyclable now or
Could be recycled in the future or
Is unlikely to be recycled in the future
Look at packaging audit methods used elsewhere and modify to suit Toronto 2010 circumstances
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Packaging Audit Approaches From Other Jurisdictions “War on Waste” - UK Local Government Association
purchase basket of goods (30) in 8 different stores to compare packaging efficiency
Repeated 2007, 2008, 2009
The ULS (Use Less Stuff) Packaging Efficiency Study as it Relates To Waste Prevention (US)
300 products in different packaging formats
Repeated 1995, 2007
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Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits
Purchased 150 items in large grocery store:
Consumer Price Index list (60 items) – reflected typical “shopping basket” in the early Blue Box years
Use Less Stuff (ULS) US report list
New products identified through store visit which would not have been popular when CPI started
New packaging formats which are gaining in popularity
Weighed empty package (each component) and package when full of product
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Toronto 2010 Packaging Audits Categorize each component as:
Recyclable now;
Recyclable in all plastic film program;
Recyclable in all plastics program;
Not recyclable for foreseeable future
“Normalize” the data to take account of typical annual purchases of each product.
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 29
Yogurt Packaging
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 30
Campbells Soup – Steel Can
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 31
Advil – Multiple Materials
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 32
New Plastic Packaging Formats
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 33
Re-sealable Caesar Salad– Convenience Food Growing Rapidly
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 34
Cookies – Different Packaging Materials
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 35
Stand Up Pouches (SUPs) – Growing Rapidly
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24th August, 2010 Future Blue Box Preliminary
Briefing 36
Toronto’s Plastic Resin Identifcation “Gun”
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Packaging Audit Results By Weight
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Packaging Audit Conclusions Audit provides “snapshot” of the range of packaging
formats
Many packages are recycled in current Toronto program
“All film” program would increase diversion
Increase in thermoform PET for wide range of products
“All plastics” program would increase diversion
Many multi-layer packages which are not recyclable
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Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning
Vincent Sferrazza, Director Policy and Planning, Solid Waste Management Services, City of Toronto
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Recycling Component of Business Plan
Future Blue Bin tonnages and composition impact on:
Collection
Processing
Markets
Revenues
Solid Waste utility needs to plan for impacts of changes
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Future Blue Bin Scenario Reviewed WDO Data on Trends for last 5 years
Three scenarios based on Forum for the Future DEFRA work in UK, modified for Canada/Toronto situation:
Status Quo – focus on regional
Fast Changes – good economy, increased oil prices, focus on global
Smaller World – bad economy, very high energy prices, focus on local
Developed “Most Likely Scenario” - Hybrid
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Toronto Solid Waste Strategic Business Planning Process
Projected 15% reduction in weight per household of printed paper and packaging in Blue Bin over 10 years:
-18% paper kg/hh
+17% plastic kg/hh
Metals – flat kg/hh
-50% glass kg/hh
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Strategic Business Plan
2010 Tonnage Map
Rates
Do No More
2020 Tonnage Map
2010 SF
Composition
2008 MF
ABCD
2020 price
2020
Composition
Kelleher
Environmental
70%
Do No More Rates 2011-20
70 Rates 2011-20
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Conclusions Future Blue Bin Study identified that the world is
changing at a rapid rate:
Lifestyles are changing
Packaging formats are changing
All of these changes impact on Toronto’s Solid Waste Business Planning process
Need to “refresh” the lifestyle and packaging research annually or bi-annually to catch new trends and plan for their impacts