Topics to explore

Asia beyond?

Global economy beyond?

Our life beyond?

Outline for Food for ThoughtWhat are the new business trends?What are the new forms of

organizational structures?How about the digital economy?How would we fit in?What are the challenges?

Disclaimer

Everything you hear today will change

tomorrow.

I would like to do is to think outside the

box.

There is no way I can even begin to

cover all of the things you like to hear.

New Business Trends

The only constant is change

The advent of the digital economy

But the virtual world won’t replace the

real world

Four Areas of Change

Customers

Companies

Market structure

Global economy

Technology and Economy

Trends to watch ….

CustomersThe entitled generation: Generation Y

work hard, play hard sophisticated and demanding

Business strategies of the firm of the future

Profit = Revenues - Costs Increased competition and sophisticated

demands Strategies

Operational efficiency Continuous improvement Mass customization Expand value chain beyond traditional firm

boundaries

Economy Forecast

Faster move towards a global economy

Increased global flows of

capital, people, ideas, products and services

Market liberalization and deregulation

Business Trends Changing business environment

Specialization Management by Methodology and Franchises Object Orientation Decentralization and Small Business Temporary Workers Internationalization Service-Oriented Business Re-engineering

Need for faster responses and flexibility

Business Trends Specialization

Increased demand for technical skills Specialized MIS tools Increased communication

Methodology & Franchises Reduction of middle management Increased data sharing Increased analysis by top management Computer support for rules Re-engineering

Business Trends Decentralization & Small Business

Communication needs Lower cost of management tasks Low maintenance technology

Temporary Workers Managing through rules Finding and evaluating workers Coordination and control Personal advancement through technology Security

Business Trends Internationalization

Communication Product design System development and programming Sales and marketing

Service Orientation Management jobs are information jobs Customer service requires better information Speed

Organization Forecast Three phases: 1: “The Cowboys” -- unconnected,

decentralized decision makers 2: “The Commanders” -- centralized decision

making 3: “Cyber-Cowboys” -- Independent decision

makers acting on global information

Team-based networked organization

Hierarchical Structure

Analyze data

CEO

VPFinance

VPMarketing

VPAccounting

VPHRM

VPMIS

Layers of middle managers

Customers

CommandsCondensed reports

Collect

data

Decentralized StructureManagement Team

CEOVP VP VP VP VP

Fin Mrkt Acct HRM MIS

FinanceTeam

MarketingTeam

AccountingTeam

HRMTeam

SalesTeam

Franchise

Strategy

Methodology/Rules

Customers

CorporateDatabase

&Network

Virtual OrganizationAd-hoc, purposeful, re-configurable

task-driven organizationUnits are real and networkedOrganization structure is task driven

and dissolves itself once task is accomplished

Distributed: anything, anywhere, anytime

What Do Experts Think about Technology

Technology:

Internet will be the global infrastructure

Telecommunications speed - Gigabit Ethernet

Convergence of technologies: computer,

multimedia, telecommunications, art work, etc.

Global Markets

Accelerating global competition and increase consolidation

Alliances: … during the past 5 years

What to look for?Share know-how toward permanent

knowledge sharing and transferLeverage reward while lowering risksCapitalize on opportunities for changing

existing business cultureAllow for continual change (old

establishment and growing companies)

Lessons learnedStrategic alliances to counter light-

speed change

Focus on intangible resources with potentially far reaching consequences marketing know-how engineering talent

Looking at the Future Using ScenariosScenario is a narrative description of a

consistent set of factors which define, in a visionary sense, future business decisions (as outcome of the process)

Decisions are purposeful, novel, made under conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty that result in high impact outcomes

Importance of Scenarios in Forecast

Need to capture complex future uncertainties

Need to avoid extrapolationNeed to support mentality shiftNeed to richly define alternative futures

5 Steps for Scenario Development

Analyze the organization decision(s) Identify key decision factors that

influence outcomeAnalyze environmental forces

micro level: environment forces that influence decision factors

macro level: forces that set the context of the decision environment

5 Steps for Scenario DevelopmentBuild coherent and plausible scenarios

using iterative designUse selected scenarios for decisions

and strategies

Context Market deregulation of telcom industries

from national monopolies to global oligopolistic competition

communications will be faster and cheaper National I.T. Policies

I.T. as a priority for many countries -- developed and developing

Policies

Trends: The Global Network

Global business with E-commerce Convergence in telecom fees Towards mutual interdependencies

Flow of people, money, technology and ideas Basic skills for “players”

native language literacy English language competency Math, science, computer, business literacy Teamwork and cross-cultural competency

Characteristics Two models:

Market driven (entrepreneurship) Government support (invisible hand)

Hi-Tech is not evenly spread US-Europe-Asia

Success factors University research Entrepreneurship

IssuesSilicon Valley success … structurally

difficulty to replicateBut cooperation as part of a global

network is possibleGlobal information infrastructure

helps…but, national characteristics represents

certain barriers.

“Damned if you do. Doomed if you don’t”