topic 3 – agriculture and food
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Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food. A – Food Models B – Food Production and Trade C – The Green Revolution and Food Security. A. Food Models. The Human Diet Nutrition Transitions Malnutrition. 1. The Human Diet. The human diet Minimum caloric requirement: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GEOG 6 – Resources and EnergyProfessor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography
Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography
Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Hofstra University, Department of Global Studies & Geography
Topic 3 – Agriculture and Food
A – Food ModelsB – Food Production and TradeC – The Green Revolution and Food Security
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
A. FOOD MODELS
1. The Human Diet2. Nutrition Transitions3. Malnutrition
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Human Diet
■ The human diet• Minimum caloric requirement:
• 2,700 calories for men and 2,000 calories for women.• Diet is organized along models:
• No single food can supply human needs in protein, vitamins and amino acids.
• Result of the socio-economic environment of the population:• About 15 plants and 8 animal species supply 90% of food.• Commonality of some food components in different parts of the world.• Related to an average daily calorie intake.• Linked to agricultural practices, but also to agribusiness and food
processing industries.• Factors:
• Income (quantity, quality, meat consumption).• Culture (preferences and preparation).• Availability (quantity, quality, price, reliability).
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Annual Per Capita Consumption of Livestock Products in Selected Countries, 1998 (in kilograms)
United States
Italy
China
India
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
MuttonPoultryPorkBeef
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Human Diet
■ The “Fast Food” diet• Growing involvement of corporate interests.• Higher sugar and fat content:
• Value added and high profits food products.• Low satiation level.
• Fast food industry:• Largest group of minimum wage workers in the US (3.5 million).• 25% of the adult population visit a fast food restaurant every single day.• Most fast food is delivered to the restaurant already frozen, canned,
dehydrated, or freeze-dried.• A fast food kitchen is merely the final stage in a vast and highly complex
system of mass production.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Number of McDonald’s per Country, 2004
31,000 McDonalds restaurants worldwide (2009), employing 1.5 million people.
12,8043,598
1,154
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Main Elements of Kraft’s Portfolio
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Human Diet
Medium Coke Large Coke0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
9 12
120
137
ProfitSyrup
■ “Supersizing”• Larger containers and quantities:
• Larger package size can increase consumption up to 55%.
• 1950s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 6.5 ounces.
• 1990s: The standard Coca-Cola container was 20 ounces.
• Little cost for the supplier:• Brand name, packaging and
marketing are dominant in pricing.
• Larger quantities directly means higher profits.
• Skew the perception of normal nutritional intake.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Illusion of Diversity, Ownership of the Soft Drink Industry, United StatesCoca Cola (42.8%) Pepsi (31.1%) Dr Pepper Snapple Group (15%)Coca ColaHonest TeaDesaniPoweradeNesteaGlaceauFuzeFantaMinute MaidSpriteFrescaMr. Pibb
PepsiAquafinaMountain DewSierra MistGatoradeLiptonOceansprayTropicanaDoleSobeLife Water
SnappleA&WBig RedNantucket NectarsSeven UpCrushDr PepperAcceleradeHawaiian PunchWelch’sCanada DrySunkistSchweppesOrangina
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Consumption of Coca-Cola Beverages per Capita (Liters)
IndiaIndonesia
NigeriaChina
RussiaThailand
WorldPolandFrance
PhilippinesItaly
JapanGermany
CanadaSouth Africa
SpainArgentinaAustralia
United StatesChile
Mexico
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
200819981988
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Nutrition Transitions
LDC
DC
Economies in transition
Developed coun-tries
0 5 10 15 20 25
Share of the Population Underweight and Overweight
OverweightUnderweight
■ Nutrition Transition• Urban and sedentary:
• People are more often away from home.
• 1970: 75% of all food expenses spent to prepare meals at home.
• 2000: 50% of all food expenses for restaurants.
• Element of time.• More woman in the labor force:
• Away from the traditional role of food preparation.
• Both members of a couple are often working.
• Less preparation time available:• 90% of the money spent on food
is spent on processed foods.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Evolution of the Japanese Diet (kg / capita / year)
1936 1960 1970 19950
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Oils & FatsFish & ShellfishMilk & Dairy ProductsEggsMeatWheatRiceGrains
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Nutrition Transitions
■ Changes in the diet• Nutritional shift:
• From a diet dominated by grains and vegetables to a diet dominated by fats and sugars.
• Natural human desire for fat and sugar (energy dense foods; low satiation).• Between 1980 and 2000 calorie intake in the US has risen nearly 10% for
men and 7% for women.• Increased corporate involvement in food supply:
• Caffeine is added (75% of sodas) to provide addiction.• Massive usage of flavoring.
• Homogenization of global diets:• Global cultural diffusion.• Outcome of trade.• Fast food industry.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food expenditures by families and individuals as a share of disposable personal income, 1929-2009
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%At homeAway from homeTotalShare (Away from home)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Malnutrition
■ Malnutrition• Imbalance (deficit or excess) in intake of nutrients. • Hunger:
• Deficiency of calorie and protein.• At least 1.2 billion people affected.
• Micronutrient deficiency:• Deficiency of vitamins and minerals.• People in developing countries eat primarily staple grain crops and do not
get enough protein.• 2.0 billion affected.
• Overconsumption:• Excess of calories.• Often accompanied by vitamins and minerals deficiencies.• At least 1.2 billion people affected.• 300 million people are obese.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Share of Underweight Children and Overweight Adults, Selected Countries, Mid 1990s
United States
Russia
UK
Germany
Colombia
Brazil
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Bangladesh
India
Ethiopia
Viet Nam
Nigeria
Indonesia
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Malnutrition
■ Obesity• Significant growth of the share of adults that are overweight.• BMI (Body Mass Index):
• Weight in kilograms, divided by the square of height in meters.• 18-25: Normal.• 25-30: Overweight.• 30-40: Obese• Above 40: Morbidly obese.
• More prevalent among the poor (fat and sugar).■ “Generation XXL”
• Supersizing.• Lack of physical activities.• High fat and sugar diet.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Past and Projected Overweight Rates in Selected OECD Countries
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202020%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
FranceEnglandAustriaItalyCanadaKoreaAustraliaUSA
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Body Mass Index of Selected Countries – “Globesity”
USA
Mexico
United Kingdom
Australia
New Zealand
Hungary
Canada
Spain
Turkey
Belgium
Poland
France
Austria
Italy
Norway
Egypt
Japan
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35% of population over 25 with a BMI of 30+
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Share of Overweight Children, Selected Countries
Indonesia (2000) 10-18Turkey (2001) 12-17
India (2002) 5-17Russia (2004) 10-18
Japan (2000) 6-14Netherlands (2003) 5-16
China (2004) 6-11South Africa (2004) 6-13
France (2006) 11-17Germany (2002) 5-17Belgium (2005) 4-15Sweden (2001) 6-13
Brazil (2002) 7-10Korea (2005) 10-19
Chile (2000) 6Israel (2007) 5-7
Australia (2007) 9-13Canada (2004) 12-17
UK England (2004) 5-17Mexico (2006) 5-17
New Zealand (2002) 5-14Italy (2006) 8-9
Spain (2000) 13-14UK Scotland (2008) 12-15United States 2004) 6-17
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Malnutrition
■ Diet-related diseases• Cardiology, endocrinology (diabetes), neurology, psychiatry,
dermatology, gastrointestinal, oncology, respirology.• 300,000 Americans die prematurely each year as a result of being
overweight.• Americans spend 40 billion per year on weight-loss products and
services.• Weight-loss products have been linked with growing obesity.• People simply eat more “fat-free” products.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
B. FOOD PRODUCTION AND TRADE1. Agriculture2. Food Production3. International Food Trade4. Global Challenges
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Agriculture
BiocapacityWeedsPestsPathogens
Floods, stormsDroughts
ConflictPoverty
TransportProcessingDistributionStoragePreparation
Geological
Climatic
Economic
Food yield
Access
End-use
Soil conditions. pH range.
Temperature and precipitation.
Labor, capital, demand.
Seeds, fertilizers, equipment.
Political and infrastructure impediments.
Making food available to consumers.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Length of Growing Period (LGP)
Combines temperature and moisture considerations to determine the length of time crops are able to grow.Number of days with temperatures above 5°C.Excluding periods which are too cold or too dry or both.Under rain-fed conditions.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Most Suitable Cereal
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Main Agriculture Models
Subsistence farming Food mainly grown to support the family / community.Variety of plants and animals cultivated.Surpluses sold on local markets, often to pay taxes and buy simple goods.Limited level of technology and capital investment.
Commercial agriculture Mostly owned by family interests (SME).Food mainly grown for local/national markets, with some exports.Specialization of crops (economies of scale).Average level of technology and capital investment.
Corporate farming Food grown for global markets, but in many case regionally.Usage of subcontractors (commercial farmers).Emphasis on product development, branding and marketing.Specialized cash crops (coffee, bananas, cacao, sugar, etc.) for plantations.Often control several elements of the supply chain (seeds, transformation).High level of technology and capital investment.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Patterns of Global Food Production
Globalization Global markets.Exchange of food cultures.Long trade routes.
Non-renewable energy Food production, transformation and distribution.
Market concentration Large multinational agro-firms.Control of technical expertise (intellectual property).Retailers becoming grocers.
Monoculture Improved yield.Increased dependency on fertilizers and irrigation.Biodiversity risk.
Aquaculture Try to replace exhausted fish supplies.More rational use of oceanic resources.
Protein transition Gradual shift to lower quality sources of protein.From beef to pork and poultry.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. World Protein Production by Source, 1950-2005
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
AquacultureSeafoodEggsPoultryMuttonPorkBeef
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Energy Content and Food Production
Food Calories / Lbs. Energy (kWh) to Produce 1 Lbs. Energy Efficiency
Corn 390 0.43 102%
Milk 291 0.75 45%
Cheese 1824 1.67 31%
Eggs 650 4 19%
Apples 216 4.4 15%
Chicken 573 6.75 15%
Pork 480 12.6 8.5%
Beef 1176 31.5 4.3%
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Grain Equivalent to Produce Meat (in kg)
Beef
Pork
Poultry
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food Production
■ Shrimp farming• Thailand is the world’s largest exporter and second largest
producer.• Shrimp is one of the most consumed seafood:
• Cheap; fast growth cycle.• Can be grown using aquaculture.
• Marine shrimp:• Southeast Asia very suitable; substantial tropical coastline.• Grown in ponds along coastal areas. • Filled with saltwater pumped from the ocean.• Shrimp ready for harvest in 90 to 120 days.
• Ecological issues:• Some mangrove forests cleared.• Replace a diverse ecosystem with monoculture.• Waste water can be a source of pollution.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
■ Tilapia farming
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. International Food Trade
■ International trade of agricultural goods• About 9% of global exchanges in commodities.• Nature, origin and destination of food trade:
• If the good is perishable.• Consumption habits.• The profit that can be derived from trading food products.• Highly linked to export cultures that are produced strictly to generate
income.• Third World countries are massively involved in these types of cultures.
• Overcome shortages:• Import what is lacking in the national production.• An economy needs to generate sufficient surpluses from other sectors.• Purchase enough food to overcome the national deficit.• Very few Third World countries can afford to do so.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Global Exports of Merchandises, 1963-2008
19631975199019942000200720080%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Manufactured products
Mineral products
Agricultural products
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Exports of Cereals, 1960-2007 (in 1000s of tons)
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
AustraliaArgentinaFranceCanadaUnited StatesWorld
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Grain Imports for Selected Countries, 1990, With Projected Need for Imported Grain in 2030
Bangladesh
Brazil
China
Egypt
Ethiopia & Eritrea
India
Indonesia
Iran
Mexico
Nigeria
Pakistan
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
215
20301990
Million tons
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. World Coffee Production and Trade, 2003
Coffee Production (M tons)Less than 300,000
300,001 to 600,000
More than 600,000
Coffee Trade
690,000
Imports
Exports
Share of Developing countries in global exports of agricultural
goods, 2000
65% of supply from three countries (Brazil, Columbia and Vietnam)
Tea
Pepper
Bananas
Coffee
Cocoa
Sugar
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
3. Price of Coffee, 1980-2010
Jan-8
0
Mar-81
May-82
Jul-8
3
Sep-84
Nov-85Ja
n-87
Mar-88
May-89
Jul-9
0
Sep-91
Nov-92Ja
n-94Mar-
95
May-96
Jul-9
7
Sep-98
Nov-99Ja
n-01Mar-
02
May-03
Jul-0
4
Sep-05
Nov-06Ja
n-08Mar-
09
May-10
0
50
100
150
200
250
ICO
Com
posit
e (Ce
nts p
er p
ound
)
1) Demand constant and steadily increasing (2.5% PY).2) Supply concentration (weather risk).3) Hoarding when prices start to increase.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Coffee and Cocoa Production by Developing Countries and Imports by Developed Countries, 1961-2001 (in tons)
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000Coffee production (Developing)Cocoa production (Developing)Coffee imports (Developed)Cocoa imports (Developed)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
4. Some Challenges Facing Agriculture
Economic Social EnvironmentalProduction Conversion of farmland to
other uses.Productivity of smaller operations.
Illegal workers (+ 50% in US).Aging of farmers.Land ownership.
Soil depletion.Aquifer depletion.Loss of biodiversity.Pests.Climate change.
Consumption Costs of diet related diseases.
Overconsumption and obesity.
One quarter of food discarded.Packaging and waste.
Distribution High marketing costs (80%).Industry oligopoly.
Less preparation. Long distances to markets.7 to 10 units of energy consumed to produce one unit of food energy.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
4. Global Challenges
■ Maintaining agricultural output• Context of increased food demand.• Provide food for the expected population surge of 1.5 billion
people between 2000 and 2020.• Expansion of land under cultivation.• Intensified cultivation;
• Higher productivity per unit of surface. • Efforts aimed at intensified cultivation are now much more critical than only
20 years ago.• Coping with changes in diet patterns (more meat):
• One pound of feedlot beef: 2,500 gallons of water, 12 pounds of grain, energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
4. Meat Production, United States and China 1961-2009 (in tons)
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
ChinaUnited States
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
4. Global Challenges
■ Expansion potential• Reserves still exist in the developing countries for expanding
agricultural land.• Very unevenly distributed:
• Found mainly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.• Asian countries, especially the most densely populated, have only slight
expansion possibilities.• Demographic pressure pushes towards that strategy.• Fishing:
• Was believed that the oceans provided an unlimited supply.• “Peak fish” was reached around 1980.
• The potential of aquaculture remains uncertain:• Conversion of grain.• Waste generation.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
4. Global Challenges
■ Consequences• Rapidly deterioration of environmental quality.• Extended soil degradation:
• Nutrient depletion.• Erosion.• Salination.
• Dwindling availability of water resources:• Agriculture accounts for 70% of all fresh water withdrawals.• Exhaustion of aquifers.• Water pollution by fertilizers and pesticides.
• Loss of animal and plant species (biodiversity):• 20 to 30% of the world’s forest converted to agriculture.• 50% of all species are in danger of extinction.• Threatening national parks and protected areas.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
C. THE GREEN REVOLUTION AND FOOD SECURITY1. The Green Revolution2. Food Security and Food Aid
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Green Revolution
■ Context• Strong population growth in the second half of the 20th century.• New techniques were required to increase production.• New land was becoming scarce.• Labor was difficult to add to existing agricultural systems.
■ Increasing the agricultural output• Green Revolution in the 1960s.• New varieties of wheat, corn and rice:
• 1920: 20 bushels per acre (wheat).• 1997: 120 bushels per acre (wheat).
• Enabling up to three harvests per year and increased outputs.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Green Revolution
■ Strategy• Focused more on scientific achievements rather than on
mechanization of agriculture.• Focused on genetics and pedology (soil science).• The development of new seed strains:
• Increase agricultural production.• Make crops more resistant to diseases.• Development of hybrids.• New strains do not occur naturally.
• The improvement of inputs into soils:• Fertilizers of various types.• Enhance the productivity of previously marginal soils.• Irrigation in dry areas (40% of our food comes from irrigation).• Boost productivity in many world regions but not without costs.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Fertilizer Response Curve for Corn
0 40 80 120 160 20050
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Pounds of nitrogen applied per acre
Yiel
d (b
ushe
ls/a
cre)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Green Revolution
■ Net impact• Increased agricultural output in many areas:
• Yields were more than doubled for many cereals (wheat, maize and rice).• Increased the cost of agriculture:
• Bioengineered seeds.• Fertilizers and pesticides.• Equipment.
• Decreased agricultural employment:• Benefits accrued to the wealthier and middle class farmers who could
afford its more costly inputs.• Increased landlessness among the peasantry.
• Increased surplus population in rural areas:• Increased rural to urban migration in many developing countries.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Global Production of Major Grains, 1961-2009 (in M tons)
0
500000000
1000000000
1500000000
2000000000
2500000000WheatRiceMaize (Corn)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Global Cereal Yields, 1961-2005 (kg per hectare)
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000Maize/CornRiceWheat
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Change in Cereal Yields, 1965-2002
NA
Decline
Up to 50%
Between 50% and 100%
Between 100 and 200%
More than 200%
Cereal Output per Hectare, 2000 (kg)
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Africa
East & South East Asia
Eastern Europe
North & Central America
South America
South Asia
Western Europe
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Production and Yield of Rice in China and India, 1961-2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
India (tons)China (tons)China Yield (kg / hectare)India Yield (kg / hectare)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. Production and Yield of Wheat in China and India, 1961-2009
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
India (tons)China (tons)China Yield (kg / hectare)India Yield (kg / hectare)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Green Revolution
■ The Green Revolution and economic dependency• Agriculture is now more capital intensive:
• Requires irrigation systems, fertilisers and pesticides.• Often produced by multinational corporations. • A shift from subsistence to commercial and corporate agriculture.
• Consumes a lot of oil.• Financing agriculture:
• Increasing linkages with financial institutions.• Borrowed money to purchase inputs, fell into debt, and lost their land to
creditors when they were unable to pay.• Put the peasant in a debt cycle.
• In many areas the Green Revolution increased landlessness among the peasantry.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
1. The Green Revolution
■ Future of agriculture?• Increase in global food trade.• Price and availability remain uncertain.• Improving the performance of plants and animals:
• Genetic engineering; transgenic crops (high protein potatoes).• Controlled ripening (enzyme); tomatoes have a shelf life of 10 to 14 days.• Herbicide and fungal resistance.• Animal diet (increased absorption).• Improved nutrition (more amino acids, vitamins and easier digestion).
• Modifying life to suit medical, industrial and energy purposes:• Disease fighters (bananas and potatoes delivering vaccine).• Biomanufacturing (colored cotton; plastic making corn; rubber making
sunflower; hydrogen producing algae.).• Multifunctionality of farms:
• Food and non-food (wildlife, water, recreation) production.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food Security and Food Aid
■ Food security• State of affairs where people have access to safe and nutritious
food to maintain a healthy and active life:• Quantitatively and qualitatively adequate food (70 days).• Affordability.
■ Dimensions• Availability:
• Sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports.
• Access.• Optimal uptake:
• Nourishment with a sustaining diet, clean water and adequate sanitation, together with health care.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. World Grain Carryover Stocks (Days of Consumption)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Days of Consumption of Global Grain Reserves, 2010
Rice
Wheat
Maize
Soybeans
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Global Food Insecurity
Calories per dayNA
Critical (less than 2,000)
Malnourished (2,000 - 2,700)
Sufficiently feed (2,700 - 3,000)
Well feed (more than 3,000)
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food Security and Food Aid
■ Factors a food Insecurity• Fossil fuels dependency.• Price fluctuations (particularly for imported food).• Conflicts.• Natural disasters.
■ Groups at risk• Displaced populations.• Low income households.• Dependent people:
• Elderly.• Pregnant women.• Young children.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Number of Malnourished in the Developing World, 1970-2015 (in millions)
1970 1980 1990 1995 2010 2015500
600
700
800
900
1000
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food Security and Food Aid
■ Global Hunger Index• Multidimensional tool to assess hunger:
• 1) Share of the proportion undernourished.• 2) Share of underweight children (less than 5).• 3) Infant mortality rate (less than 5).
• On a scale from 0 to 100:• Less than 4.9: low; 5 to 9.9: moderate; 10 to 19.9: serious; 20 to 29.9:
alarming; above 30: extremely alarming.
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Changes in the Global Hunger Index, 1990-2008
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Food Security and Food Aid
■ Food Aid• Several regions have chronic
food shortages.• Several governmental and non-
governmental agencies are organizing food aid programs.
• Supply a temporary aid to the population in need.
• Generally negative impacts such as the destruction of local agricultural systems.
• Vicious circle of food aid favouring the persistence of problems in several nations.
Famine
Food Aid
Drop in food prices
Bankruptcy of Agriculture
© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue© Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue
2. Cereal Food Aid, Total and by Region, 1970-2006
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
Latin AmericaSouthern AsiaAfricaAsiaWorld