top technology trends to watch 2014 to 2016

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Forrester Research, Inc., 60 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA Tel: +1 617.613.6000 | Fax: +1 617.613.5000 | www.forrester.com Top Technology Trends To Watch: 2014 To 2016 by Brian Hopkins, November 4, 2013 For: Enterprise Architecture Professionals KEY TAKEAWAYS A New Pace Drives New Information Technology Demands Empowered consumers and employees, armed with millions of apps and ubiquitous connectivity, are turning the tables on business. To keep pace, firms must be able to sprint, stop, evaluate, pivot, and race ahead in a slightly new direction, and this demands IT capabilities that are different. Revolutionary Technologies Point To A Radically Different Future Mobile applications, big data for real-time analytics, cloud, and customer intelligence are this year’s most revolutionary technologies, and they indicate a future where firms use mobile and data to engage customers and employees in real-time, leveraging elastic and agile cloud platforms. Firms Seek Smarter Engagement Using Nimble And Secure IT Firms understand that deep engagement with customers and employees is the path to success, and they are turning to smart processes, advanced analytics, and big data to do it. But they also realize the need for new nimble, secure platforms and processes. Getting ahead of the trends, however, will require deep IT process and infrastructure changes. This Year’s Top Trends Demand A Strategic Response In previous years, we examined how a technology’s use and impact was trending. Our analysis this year begins with the business context of engagement, then examines how technology is helping firms be smart, nimble, and secure. Technology executives must evaluate each trend and formulate a strategic response, regardless of their industry and size.

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Top Technology Trends to Watch 2014 to 2016

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Forrester Research, Inc., 60 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA

Tel: +1 617.613.6000 | Fax: +1 617.613.5000 | www.forrester.com

Top Technology Trends To Watch: 2014 To 2016by Brian Hopkins, November 4, 2013

For: Enterprise Architecture Professionals

Key TaKeaways

a New Pace Drives New Information Technology DemandsEmpowered consumers and employees, armed with millions of apps and ubiquitous connectivity, are turning the tables on business. To keep pace, firms must be able to sprint, stop, evaluate, pivot, and race ahead in a slightly new direction, and this demands IT capabilities that are different.

Revolutionary Technologies Point To a Radically Different FutureMobile applications, big data for real-time analytics, cloud, and customer intelligence are this year’s most revolutionary technologies, and they indicate a future where firms use mobile and data to engage customers and employees in real-time, leveraging elastic and agile cloud platforms.

Firms seek smarter engagement Using Nimble and secure ITFirms understand that deep engagement with customers and employees is the path to success, and they are turning to smart processes, advanced analytics, and big data to do it. But they also realize the need for new nimble, secure platforms and processes. Getting ahead of the trends, however, will require deep IT process and infrastructure changes.

This year’s Top Trends Demand a strategic ResponseIn previous years, we examined how a technology’s use and impact was trending. Our analysis this year begins with the business context of engagement, then examines how technology is helping firms be smart, nimble, and secure. Technology executives must evaluate each trend and formulate a strategic response, regardless of their industry and size.

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email [email protected]. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.

For EntErprisE ArchitEcturE proFEssionAls

why ReaD ThIs RePoRT

Businesses are forced to operate at a new pace as they contend with informed customers, smart competitors, and employees who choose to use their own technology for work. These trends change how firms use information technology: to be smarter, more secure, and above all nimble. This year’s top technology trends take a customer-oriented, outside-in view of information technology changes using the themes of engaged, smart, nimble, and secure. Enterprise architects and technology strategists must understand these trends and how specific emerging technologies can be employed to position their firms ahead of the changes.

table of contents

The New Pace of Business Drives This year’s Top Trends

Three Themes Fuel The evolution of The adaptable enterprise

Plan on Deep Technology Change To Capitalize on our Top Trends

WhAt it MEAns

you are Not at The Center of your ecosystem

supplemental Material

notes & resources

Forrester interviewed internal analysts, leveraged existing research, and reviewed recent client conversations as the basis for this report.

related research Documents

the Mobile Mind shift indexApril 19, 2013

capitalize on Emerging technology For innovation And GrowthMarch 25, 2013

the top Emerging technologies to Watch: now through 2018February 7, 2013

Top Technology Trends To watch: 2014 To 2016landscape: the Emerging technology playbookby Brian hopkinswith leslie owens, John c. Mccarthy, and Abigail Komlenic

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novEMBEr 4, 2013

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 2

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

The New PaCe oF BUsINess DRIves ThIs yeaR’s ToP TReNDs

Technology has become part of the very fabric of our lives. There are currently enough mobile cellular subscriptions to cover 95% of the world’s population, and one in three subscribers also has broadband data.1 Empowered consumers and connected employees are interacting and collaborating, using millions of apps and ubiquitous, rich social connectivity to do business in ways we simply could not conceive of just a few years ago. The potential for such quick change fosters disruption. For example, a shift in consumer behavior could replace wallets with devices overnight, or another global financial crisis could create a landslide move to cryptocurrency.

In response, firms are forced to operate at a new pace. Not necessarily faster, though speed is often required. Rather, the business must be able to accelerate, slow down, shift right, step back, then race ahead. Don’t think this change is limited to business-to-consumer (B2C) firms, either — even the US government has embraced the mobile mind shift, and business-to-business (B2B) companies like Lowe’s and Hiscox are providing their clients with self-service analytics and rich consumer-style user experiences.2 To flourish, businesses must constantly sense their environment and adapt within an ecosystem of customers, partners, suppliers, brokers, and regulators (see Figure 1). This behavior is driven by:

■ The aggressive pursuit and battle for the mindshare of perpetually connected customers. Firms see the opportunity to engage with and influence customer behaviors in everything they do. For example, the “quantified self ” movement asserts that as people become more aware of the data about their daily lives, they are more prone to take care of themselves.3 Nike is counting on this effect in hopes that its FuelBand will make wearers want other fitness products.

■ Continually connected and digitally native employees. Nobody argues over bring-your-own-device (BYOD) anymore, but just as we got past that battle and moved on to solutions, over the horizon comes bring-your-own-service (BYOS). Today 77% of US online adults use at least one personal cloud service, such as file-sharing services like Dropbox or calendar functions like Google calendars. IT executives are figuring out how to integrate these services into their enterprise.4

■ Tougher competitors and smarter suppliers. The playing field is more level than ever. Cloud provides small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) with the same sophisticated tools that enterprises use; open data and the emerging data economy promote the sharing of information at unprecedented levels.5 Not only are competitors smarter, so are partners and suppliers. When partners and suppliers are smarter than you, you have a high probability of being on the losing side of business deals.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 3

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 1 Firms Must Adapt By Engaging And Optimizing Within Their Ecosystem

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Nimble delivery

Smart systems

Technology is allowing �rms to keep up with the new pace ofchange and dominate their ecosystem

Customers

Partners

Suppliers

Regulators

Brokers

Ecosystem

Products andservices

Competitor

Competitor

Competitor

ConnectedConstantlyDesigned

secure

This year’s hot Technologies Indicate Radical Change Is Coming

We asked enterprise architects what technologies they thought would be the most revolutionary, and mobile applications took the top spot for the third year running (see Figure 2). Mobile platforms dropped from a steady No. 2 spot down to No. 5, while cloud and big data for real-time climbed up a spot to No. 3 and No. 4, respectively. Both customer intelligence platforms and sensor systems/smart computing jumped significantly, while reporting, visualization, and analytics climbed back into the top 10 after falling sharply from the No. 3 spot in 2011.6

The changes reflect the story behind the story — while mobile has long been thought revolutionary, enterprise architecture (EA) professionals now understand it’s not the platforms; it’s the apps. Further, the rise of customer intelligence technology underscores how the power of apps is customer engagement, while real-time systems handle the load and cloud enables agility. Finally, enterprise architects see the potential for sensors and the Internet of Things to create thriving business ecosystems.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 4

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 2 This Year’s Top Trends Paint A Picture Of A Radically Different Future

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

“Please select the answer that best describes the impact you expect the technologies in thecategories below to have on your �rm — revolutionary.”

Infrastructure-as-a-service,including public, private, and

hybrid cloud

Mobile platforms

Application platforms includingsoftware-as-a-service and

platform-as-a-service

Mobile applications Mobile applications

Big data platforms for real-time analytics

Cloud-based or as-a-serviceapplication platforms

Customer intelligence andanalytics platforms

Mobile platforms (iOS,Android, BlackBerry, HTML5,etc.)

Infrastructure-as-a-service,including public, private, andhybrid cloud

Big data platforms for batchanalytics

Sensor systems and smartcomputing (M2M, deviceclouds, smart meters, RFID,embedded IPs)Business intelligence(reporting, visualization, andanalytics)

Collaboration and socialplatforms — with externalparties

Business intelligenceincluding predictive analytics,

data mining, content andembedded analytics, big data

11

Business event processingand rules

Business event processingand rules12

2 22

3 33

4 44

5 55

6 6

7 7

8 8

9 9

10 10

2011(N = 375)

2012(N = 216)

2013(N = 118)

Base: enterprise architecture professionals

Source: Global State Of Enterprise Architecture Online Survey, 2011 through 2013

1111

We split BI into three categoriesin 2012: 1) big data for real-time analytics; 2) big data for batch analytics; and 3) reporting, visualization, and analytics.

We added these responseoptions in 2012.

1

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 5

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

ThRee TheMes FUel The evolUTIoN oF The aDaPTaBle eNTeRPRIse

Against this backdrop of accelerating business change and the need for agility, enterprise architects face an onslaught of technology choices, implementation options, and delivery approaches. And this new pace of business demands more of IT to help firms plan for and influence what might happen, detect what is happening, make sense of it, and adapt. A lot has been made of agility, and certainly the capability to change directions quickly and with grace is important, but which direction should be taken? How fast should one get there? How much risk is involved?

This year’s trends examine information technology shifts that are helping firms answer these questions. Three forces anchor and organize our trends (see Figure 3):

■ Engaged. Customers and partners drive the pace of change, and the only way to keep up is to engage with them. This increasingly requires a compelling digital experience that adds value to people’s lives, in their context and at their moment of need. But engagement is not just about customers; firms that improve employee engagement also find improved customer experience.7

■ Smart. The use of flexible processes, more data, and better analytics means that leading firms can: 1) provide intelligent products and services that are of more value to consumers and provide more information on their usage; 2) plug into their ecosystem better by tapping data from partners, government entities, and data marketplaces; and 3) make better strategic decisions by anticipating and detecting shifts in their market.

■ Nimble and secure. The pace of digital disruption makes the future less predictable, and this unpredictability requires a different type of application and infrastructure architecture — one that can rapidly adapt to changing needs, variable scale, and different workloads. Firms must also deal with the fact that information has never been more available and IT has never been more open, which demands better security capability as well.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 6

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 3 Three Themes Of Change Are Required To Accelerate Business

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Nimble/secure

Uncertainty demands

being nimble, while

openness and

collaboration require

improved security.

Smart

Smarter decisions

and products create

new revenue and

�erce competition.

Engaged

Engagedcustomers

and businesspartnersdrive thepace ofchange.

Theadaptableenterprise

PlaN oN DeeP TeChNology ChaNge To CaPITalIze oN oUR ToP TReNDs

This year we take an outside-in approach to our trends by considering first how technology is fueling changes in engagement, then examining the smart theme, and finally the nimble and secure theme (see Figure 4).8

To help readers understand the relative business potential and depth of technology change required to capitalize on each trend, we plot the trends using circle size to indicate urgency, color to group trends by theme, and shade to indicate level of complexity (see Figure 5).9 Plotting the trends in this fashion clarifies the relationship between business potential and the depth of technology change required to achieve it.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 7

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 4 Summary Of The Top 10 Technology Trends

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Digital convergence erodesboundaries

Digital experience deliverymakes (or breaks) �rms

Application programminginterfaces (APIs) becomedigital glue

Engaged

Frank E. Gillett, “The Coming Integration Of Personal Cloud Services And Enterprise Apps”; “Services For The Digital Self”Tony Costa, “Customer Experience In The Post-PC Era”TJ Keitt, “Answer Five Questions When Selecting A Cloud Collaboration And Productivity Suite”James McQuivey, Digital Disruption: Unleashing the Next Wave of Innovation (Amazon Publishing, 2013)Cory Munchbach, “Assess Your Digital Disruption Readiness Now”Michael Yamnitsky, “Pioneer Vendors: Reinventing Human-Computer Interaction”Michele Pelino and David K. Johnson, “Five Seismic Forces Reshu�e The Workforce Vendor Ecosystem”

John C. McCarthy, “Non-Tech Companies Become The New Market For Software Product Development Services”Ted Schadler and John C. McCarthy: “Wanted: Mobile Engagement Providers”; “Great Mobile Experiences Are Built On Systems Of Engagement”Josh Berno�, “The Mobile Mind Shift Index”

Randy He�ner, “Establish Your API Design Strategy”; “Drive Business Agility And Value By Increasing Your API And SOA Maturity”Eve Maler and Je�rey S. Hammond, “API Management For Security Pros”

Supporting IT trend Key analysts and Forrester reports

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 8

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 4 Summary Of The Top 10 Technology Trends (Cont.)

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

The business takes ownershipof process and intelligence

Boris Evelson: “The Future of BI”; Build An Agile BI Organization“; The Forrester Wave™: Self-Service Business Intelligence Platforms, Q2 2012”Clay Richardson and Craig Le Clair, “Embrace Five Disruptive Trends That Will Reshape BPM Excellence”Craig Le Clair, “Smart Process Apps: To Combine Social And Dynamic Case Management”

Firms shed yesterday’sdata limitations

Brian Hopkins, “Deliver On Big Data Potential With A Hub-And-Spoke Architecture”Noel Yuhanna, “Information Fabric 3.0”Mike Gualtieri, “Predictive Apps Are The Next Big Thing In Customer Engagement”James Staten, Eve Maler, and Fatemeh Khatibloo, “Improve Business Outcomes With Adaptive Intelligence”Jennifer Belissent, Ph.D., “Getting The Most Out Of Open Data”

Sensors and devices draw ecosystems together

Michele Pelino, “Prepare I&O For The ‘Internet Of Things’”Sarah Rotman Epps: “Wearable Computing”; “Smart Body, Smart World”; “Google Glass: What Marketers Need To Know”Charles S. Golvin, “Prepare For Adaptive Mobile Networks”Ted Schadler and John C. McCarthy, “Great Mobile Experiences Are Built On Systems Of Engagement”

SmartSupporting IT trend Key analysts and Forrester reports

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 9

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

“Trust” and “identity” get arethink

John Kindervag, “No More Chewy Centers: Introducing The Zero Trust Model Of Information Security”Eve Maler, “Navigate The Future Of Identity And Access Management”

Infrastructure technology takeson engagement demands

Firms learn from the cloud andmobile

IT becomes an agile servicebroker (or fades away)

Nimble and secure

Andre Kindness: “Workload-Centric Infrastructure Ignites Software-De�ned Networking”; Fuse Business Acceleration Technologies To Optimize User Experiences”Richard Fichera: “The Software-De�ned Data Center Is The Future Of Infrastructure Architecture”; “Server And Data Center Predictions For 2013”; “Evaluate New Converged Infrastructures To Underpin The Software-De�ned Data Center”; “Market Overview: Converged Infrastructure Solutions In 2013, Part 1 Of 2”

Richard Fichera and James Staten, “Five Data Center And IT Infrastructure Lessons From The Cloud Giants”Je�rey S. Hammond, “The Future Of Mobile Application Development”James Staten, “Predictions For 2013: Cloud Computing”John R. Rymer and James Staten, “Cloud Keys An Era Of New IT Responsiveness And E�ciency”

Glenn O’Donnell and Kurt Bittner, “The Seven Habits Of Highly E�ective DevOps”Jean-Pierre Garbani, “Prepare For 2020: Transform Your IT Infrastructure And Operations Practice”Michael Facemire, “Mobile Development — Smooth Sailing Or Titanic Voyage?”Margo Visitacion and Kurt Bittner, “Map Your Journey To The Future With Next-Generation Portfolio Management”Craig Le Clair, “The 10 Dimensions Of Business Agility”Liz Herbert, “Transform Technology Sourcing Strategy To Drive Digital Disruption”

Supporting IT trend Key analysts and Forrester reports

Figure 4 Summary Of The Top 10 Technology Trends (Cont.)

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 10

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 5 A Direct Relationship Exists Between Business Potential And Depth Of Technology Change

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

High

Relative depth of technology change

Relativebusinesspotential

Moderate

Engage

Smart

Secure/

nimble

Themes Complexity

Very high

Trends

UrgencySizeShadeColor

18 months

12 months

6 months

12

4

5

36

78

9

10

KeyDigital convergence erodes boundaries

Digital experience delivery makes (orbreaks) �rms

The business takes ownership of processand intelligence

Firms shed yesterday’s data limitations

Sensors and devices draw ecosystemstogether

“Trust” and “identity” get a rethink

Infrastructure takes on engagement

Firms learn from the cloud and mobile

IT becomes an agile service broker (orfades away)

1

2

4

3

5

6

7

8

9

10

APIs become digital glue

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 11

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

engagement Trend No. 1 — Digital Convergence erodes Boundaries

Convergence of the physical and digital world is eroding the boundaries that are the basis for many operating assumptions; firms today are ill-prepared to handle the resulting chaos. For example, many retailers now ship out-of-stock items purchased in a store from other stores or warehouse inventories. While this creates customer loyalty, it can wreak havoc on a firm’s profit and loss structure, as it’s not clear how to attribute the sale and inventory transactions.

We find convergence occurring in two areas. First, we are seeing a convergence of digital and physical identities — people are not differentiating who they are online and in person; they expect consistent experiences when working with companies and at their jobs. Second, we are seeing a convergence of business and personal use of technology — a tsunami of empowered digital natives is breaching the levies of IT as the rift between employee needs and IT priorities widens.

Convergence and the resulting chaos create a fertile field for disruptive innovation (see Figure 6).

Important technologies fueling this trend include:

■ End user computing. Next-generation devices and user interfaces remove desktops from center stage, and screen sizes continue to shrink (and may even disappear for some form factors). The keyboard and mouse are not long for this world; gesture and natural language interfaces create higher engagement expectations.10

■ Sensors and remote computing. In-location positioning technology provides data for deep analytics on the physical world using techniques that were developed for online use.

■ Process data management. Advanced analytic techniques increasingly leverage both physical and online activity; business process management (BPM) technology adapts to enable highly flexible engagement between employees and customers across devices and physical/digital boundaries.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. BYOD gives way to bring-your-own-service; new security models will be forced; ubiquitous wireless connectivity and increasing bandwidth fuel the proliferation of technology and the expectations that services are available anytime, anywhere; and the cloud creates collaboration opportunities and new ways of doing business.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 12

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 6 Convergence Is A Major Driver Of Digital Disruption

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Digital convergence erodes boundaries

The bottom line:Convergence is a major source of digital disruption, and there is no end in sight as �rms grapple with deeporganizational issues surfaced by new technology capabilities. For example, Macy’s stopped di�erentiatingbetween online and physical sales because it was simply too hard to support customers who expect out-of-stock items to be shipped to them from online or physical inventories, regardless of the point of sale. Thisspells doom for many companies and boundless opportunity for others. IT has a huge but supporting role to play, which can frustrate architecture and strategy professionals as they watch their business work through issues.

Relative depth of technology change:Convergence creates one of the deepest technologychange needs. First, it in�uences applicationarchitectures that must be able to handle systems ofengagement; second, this drives the need for newinfrastructure as employees expect to blend workand personal digital identities.

Relative business potential:Convergence shares, with digital experience, the highest business potential of all 10 trends. Firms that master it will be able to align their organizations, engage with customers more deeply, and attract the best talent. They will be well positioned to avoid or instigate disruptive innovations.

By 2016:• Organizational silos that negatively a�ect customer experience will create executive turnover. The

bottom-line impact of failing to adapt to changing customer and employee expectations will be too big toignore. Firms that cannot adapt will bring in executives who can lead their organization into the new reality.

• Cloud collaboration suites will expose new people-related issues. As geographic barriers dissolve,geopolitical and cultural issues will emerge as central sticking points to progress. Younger talent will continue to gravitate to �rms that provide better converged digital/physical work environments.

• Cracks in the desktop paradigm reveal imminent collapse. The continued evolution of next-generationinterfaces and devices will have undermined the desktop architecture to the point that its collapse will beobvious. Firms that have not planned for the transition will be scrambling.

engagement Trend No. 2 — Digital experience Delivery Makes (or Breaks) Firms

A great digital experience is no longer a nice-to-have; it’s the make-or-break point for your business as we more fully enter into the digital age. Firms are: 1) adopting mobile-first philosophies, attempting to build sophisticated systems of engagement and struggling because systems of record cannot keep up with engagement needs; 2) recognizing that “software is the brand,” because customers’ impressions and decisions to do business are formed by their digital experience; and 3) turning to customer engagement and digital experience agencies funded through chief marketing technology officers, causing consternation for some CIOs and joy for others.

Delivering compelling digital user experiences is a big challenge for most firms (see Figure 7).

Technologies fueling the change include:

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 13

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

■ End user computing. Advancements in mobile devices and new user interfaces continue to raise experience expectations. Emerging hands-free experiences require context to tailor interactions at users’ moments of need.

■ Sensors and remote computing. Built-in sensors in user-carried devices as well as inputs from environmental sensors provide crucial context for user experience delivery.

■ Process data management. Business processes management systems must adapt to high-touch/engagement needs, whereas much of today’s technology was developed to reduce touch and improve automation. Advanced analytics and big-data-capable architectures will be required, but organizational and security pain will be a significant obstacle.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Today’s middleware, security, and infrastructure architectures cannot handle the scale and fluidity that systems of engagement demand. Firms will continue to refit the mobile device, application, and data management back ends, but change will be slow and expensive. The cloud and big data platforms will help, but they will also force some firms way out of their comfort zones.

Figure 7 The Challenges Of Delivering Compelling Digital Experiences Give Firms Fits

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

The bottom line:The challenges of providing a compelling, intuitive digital experience are turning today’s IT practices andinfrastructures on their head. Leading �rms have rushed to deliver great digital experiences only to �nd thattheir organizations and IT capabilities are not suited for it, and that they will need to make hard choices andbig investments to get to the desired future. IT departments have a big role to play by recognizing theirlimitations and working closely with the business to adopt more capable platform, reskill, and brokerrelationships with the right partner agencies.

Relative depth of technology change:The IT impact of this trend is signi�cant, but middle of the pack compared with the other trends. IT hassubstantial work to do reskilling and embracing systemof engagement technology on the road to becomingdigital experience designers and support.

Relative business potential:This trend has the highest business potential of all10 trends, along with convergence. Businesses that can deliver attractive and consistent digital experiences will outperform those that do not. This is the new business imperative.

By 2016:• The gap between the digital “haves” and “have nots” demands action. Digital “have” companies —

those that understand the power of compelling digital experiences and embrace organizations and practicesthat create it — will outperform competitors that do not.

• “App dev” will give way to “dig ex.” App dev today implies deeply technical resources buried in layers ofIT delivery that remove the users of software from its developers. Increasing consumerization and next-generation development tools make this practice untenable; instead software pros in 2016 will considerthemselves digital experience providers with a broad mix of interface, middleware, and DevOps skills.

• Customer experience analytics will emerge as a must-have capability. Today’s �rms struggle to grasp an overall view of customer experience. As they unify experiences across channels and collect more data,this problem will get solved.

Digital experience makes (or breaks) �rms

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 14

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

engagement Trend No. 3 — aPIs Become Digital glue

Hot on the heels of service-oriented architecture (SOA) comes another major industry discussion about application-to-application messaging: application programming interfaces (APIs). As with SOA, APIs provide open access to useful functionality through network-based services using technologies that are readily accessible from a broad range of programming environments. We find: 1) momentum for external APIs due to the opportunities created through data sharing and providing new services to digital customers; 2) examples of business model innovation creating patterns for others to follow (for example, Amazon.com’s product advertising API, or the Chicago Transit Authority’s and Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s APIs); and 3) APIs providing a new security challenge and opportunity (for example, open web APIs commonly involve the use of your customers’ data, giving rise to a critical new security requirement but also allowing customers to authorize data use).

APIs create the capacity to sense and respond to your firm’s ecosystem (see Figure 8).

Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing/sensor and remote computing. Demand for mobile apps and software embedded in remote devices will create a need for connections to back-end data services via APIs. As mobile engagement systems expand, so will APIs, creating more open business opportunity.

■ Process data management. Data throughput demands for real-time connectivity across various channels will challenge API designers. Data management, analytics, and business intelligence (BI)-as-a-service technologies will depend on APIs for reliable operations. Business processes may flow freely across organizational boundaries, with open APIs that allow an organization to benefit from the success of creative upstarts and digital disruption.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. On the open Web, representational state transfer (REST) APIs will dominate the landscape, while simple object access protocol (SOAP) continues to serve well inside many enterprises. Identity and access management (IAM) solutions and API management systems will evolve to meet the security, configuration, and availability demands of externally facing services. API design strategy, while immature at present, will mature on the back of established SOA practices.

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top technology trends to Watch: 2014 to 2016 15

© 2013, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited November 4, 2013

Figure 8 External APIs Provide A Means For Ecosystem Participants To Interact

smart Trend No. 1 — The Business Takes ownership of Process and Intelligence

Businesspeople have long been dependent on deeply technical resources to realize value from process management and business intelligence technology; however, the pace of business makes this increasingly unacceptable and unscalable. We find: 1) business users demanding more control and IT losing its once-exclusive domain over BI platforms, tools, and applications; 2) customer experience upgrading BPM to the front office because a new class of users demands more user-friendly, self-service features to automate ad hoc processes without expensive and scarce IT resources; and 3) the mobile mind shift fueling a new cycle of process and data innovation as businesspeople find market niches to exploit and insist on access to data and control of process flows to do so.

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

The bottom line:Ecosystems of engagement only exist in an open business environment, in which participants have a meansto pro�tably and safely share information. However, proper design of external APIs can be confusing. WhenAPIs are used both externally and internally, it becomes even more challenging. Further, IT pros accustomed to only dealing with traditional B2B eCommerce and internal service integration must now view themselves as directly on the path of value to customers across the open Web. This demands a new level of software and data quality and service availability that will be both challenging and rewarding.

Relative depth of technology change:We rate this trend in the bottom third because application programming interfaces are by nature encapsulation approaches, which lessen the impact on other changes in the technology stack.

Relative business potential:We rate the potential in the bottom third becauseAPIs will only provide upside if developed as part ofa larger data economy strategy, which many �rmswill not pursue anytime soon. Businesses that domaster APIs, however, will have many opportunities that their competitors do not have.

By 2016:• API design will be a critical business design skill. Today, API design is regarded as a technical skill, but that

is changing. The API economy will open up revenue and business model innovation opportunity that willelevate API design to a �rst-class business capability. To achieve this goal, API design will shift from �ne- and course-grained to “scope grained,” where the design sets the grain level most appropriate to the data consumption audience.

• Software-is-the-brand companies will be leading the API economy forward. These increasinglysoftware-centric �rms deliver information services, and follow examples from the likes of Google andAmazon.com in how they deliver through robust and pro�table APIs. Successes will lead other �rms toexperiment and further drive the trend.

• API management platforms will provide comprehensive, agile security support. Exposing sensitivedata isn’t crazy; it’s essential. But traditional SOA security doesn’t provide the speci�c features that open webAPIs need. Before 2016, the market for better API management and the demand for security will result inemerging technology that delivers. We expect to see Zero Trust concepts implemented by this time.

APIs become digital glue

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IT has been leading the business in the application of technology for process and data management improvements, and it will have a difficult time letting go (see Figure 9).

Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing. Refactored mobile devices create more opportunity for BI and process interaction. Process management technology includes advanced communication and collaboration technology. BI technology increasingly leverages context (where users are and what they are doing) to deliver insights at the greatest point of need.

■ Sensors and remote computing. In-location positioning technology provides data on the environment that is available for analytics and process management. As workers work, they transparently collect and leave a data trace, which can be analyzed for process optimization and risk reduction. This creates a “big data” problem, however, as firms scramble to prepare for the data.

■ Process data management. Smart process applications built on new-generation BPM technology seamlessly blend social, collaboration, mobile, sensor, and predictive analytics. BI becomes even more pervasive as advance visualization, self-service design, and delivery for different form factors evolve. Cloud data and analytics services mature to create hyperflexible capabilities available through more standard and hardened APIs.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Next-generation, converged infrastructure expert systems, hybrid cloud architectures, and big data platforms combine to create flexible capabilities for handling variable-scale data and processes in a highly reliable and low-cost manner. As the notion of user identity extends beyond organizational firewalls, firms will be forced toward new security paradigms that require deep infrastructure changes to succeed.

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Figure 9 IT Will Have Trouble Turning Over Process And Data To Businesspeople

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

The business takes ownership of process and intelligence

The bottom line:The shift from technology-owned BI and business process management to business-led will be challenging to both business and IT pros. Businesses used to pointing the �nger at IT will need to take accountability for success or failure of e�orts that were once IT projects. IT pros will need to relinquish control and retool theirmiddleware and packaged app portfolio to support self-service and user con�guration. Both parties will meetat the data, where enormous changes in governance, stewardship, security, skills, and technology will demandclose collaboration from all parties.

Relative depth of technology change:We rate this as middle of the pack on depth oftechnology changes because self-service tools aremature. Many are available in the cloud or as hostedservices, but cultural change will hinderimplementation. There will be little change in core infrastructure.

Relative business potential:This trend is middle of the pack in potential, butgiven our trends, this is still very signi�cant. Firmsthat master this trend will be more �exible andinnovative; both are key to thrive in the new paceof business.

By 2016:• The majority of BPM initiatives will start due to customer experience improvement needs. Techniques

like Six Sigma and Lean were designed for process e�ciency, not for complex user experience interactions.Companies will turn away from cutting the bottom line with e�ciency gains toward driving top-line revenue by delivering high-quality process interactions with all the participants of their ecosystem.

• Business intelligence will become a part of the information workplace. Today, BI tools are either stand-alone desktop or web tools that users access separately from the other productivity applications that they need to get their job done. This will not be so in the future, as user demand and vendor response increasinglyprovides a seamless, contextual user experience that allows information workers easy access to the aggregate information they need, on whatever devices they happen to be using.

• Most �rms will have a strong mix of public cloud and on-premises solutions. Adoption of process, data,and analytic technologies as-a-service continues to erode on-premises installations, and users demand“throwaway” solutions that can be scrapped or changed as the ecosystem shifts. IT will have gotten over the“we can’t put that data in the cloud” objection, driven by the economics of doing it any other way.

smart Trend No. 2 — Firms shed yesterday’s Data limitations

Business executives’ No. 1 technology priority is improving the use of data and analytics for better business outcomes, but IT has had difficulty responding to the challenge.11 Firms that embrace big data concepts, open data, and adopt new adaptive intelligence approaches are creating next-generation smart systems that overcome limitations and create disruptive business innovations. We find firms: 1) embracing cheaper and more agile approaches such as low-cost data hubs and highly flexible information fabric architectures; 2) adopting more collaborative and adaptive approaches to analytics and data sharing rather than hoarding data of questionable value; and 3) designing predictive apps able to sense their environment and respond in real-time, anticipate user action, and meet users in their moment of need.

Firms must break through yesterday’s data limitations to understand their ecosystem and successfully position themselves in it (see Figure 10).

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Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing/sensor and remote computing. Sensors and next-generation devices are providing a new wave of data that offers enormous potential. They also create huge problems of scale for back ends that were simply not designed for systems of engagement.

■ Process data management. Advanced techniques such as location, stream, and text analytics couple with dynamic and adaptive processes to deliver next-generation smart applications. Cognitive computing will emerge as next-generation artificial intelligence capable of offloading the complex relationship identification and predictive modeling work currently done by humans.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Scale-out, parallel computing architectures (like Hadoop or Cassandra), converged infrastructure, in-memory computing, cloud data management and analytics, and software-defined everything underpin the next-generation data platforms.

Figure 10 Firms Must Break Through Data Barriers To Thrive In Their Ecosystem

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Firms shed yesterday’s data limitations

The bottom line:As �rms come to grips with the idea that they must interoperate and adapt within a complex and constantlychanging ecosystem in order to thrive, they will be less and less tolerant of data barriers. IT must evolvetoward an agile, low-cost platform for delivering data in real-time to users and applications that need it, when they need it and how they need it. IT must also implement means to share data collaboratively throughAPIs and embrace adaptive analytics, rather than depend on persisting huge volumes of external data.Leading IT organizations that understand how to say “yes” to new business ideas for data innovation and value will outpace those that are still “the department of no.”

Relative depth of technology change:We rank this in the top third of our trends for depth ofrequired technology changes because parallel, scale-out architectures, information fabrics, and adaptiveanalytics are all very new and di�erent from traditionalwarehouse-centric data management.

Relative business potential:We rank this in the top third of our trends forbusiness potential, as freedom from technologylimitations for managing data will unleashenormous innovation potential and opendisruptive “adjacent possibles.”

By 2016:• The data economy opens up new business models and decreases today’s hoarding. It’s not just about

overt data monetization; rather, data sharing and initiatives like open data will create revenue opportunitiesfor �rms that deliver value-added mashup and analytics services. By 2016, we will see a change in theapproach, away from hoarding copies of external data to subscribing to services that provide the data oranalytics they need, when they need it.

• In-memory will blur the landscape between operational and analytic infrastructure. Leading vendorsand academics are pushing the boundary for in-memory computing into the petabyte range. As thistechnology becomes more commonplace and a�ordable, many of the performance-based reasons forhaving separate data copies for operations and analytics will be removed.

• Big data will run out of hype gas as �rms get serious about cost and agility at scale. Today the hypearound big data has reached a deafening roar, and the detractors are now calling “dud.” By 2016, �rms willunderstand that big data is an important concept that allows �rms to deliver faster insight with greater agilityat a lower cost. Leaders will be doing just this, but they will focus on right-sizing data, acquiring it from theirecosystems when appropriate, and being able to handle scale if needed.

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smart Trend No. 3 — sensors and Devices Draw ecosystems Together

Most firms deploy products and services to the market with spray-and-pray promotional campaigns. We find: 1) mobile data traffic exploding because of broadband ubiquity and the increasing number of devices; 2) the Internet of Things emerging after years of hype because lower costs and increasing data connectivity are making investments in key verticals economical, and 3) wearable computers breaking out of prototypes and niches.

Advancements in sensors and devices create even more potential for smart engagement (see Figure 11).

Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing. Wearable technology will provide even more opportunity to engage with customers, whatever they are doing, and understand what they need. Social media interaction will frame communication behavior and collaboration. Next-generation human-computer interfaces will accelerate adoption.

■ Sensor and remote computing. Machine-to-machine (M2M) technologies are the primary enabler of the Internet of Things. M2M technologies such as radio frequency identification (RFID) tags, sensors, video cameras, global positioning system (GPS) chips, and smart cards capture data on the identity, status, condition, and location of physical assets.

■ Process data management. Data mining, predictive analytics, video image analysis, pattern recognition, and artificial intelligence algorithms will be necessary to understand the data provided and determine whether an organization should act on a pattern or anomaly, or ignore it. Mobile-enabled processes will need business-rule-driven automation and extreme flexibility to adapt to unpredictable changes in customer behavior.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Massively parallel architectures emerge to handle new data loads and scale, while software-defined infrastructure and cloud provide the adaptability required to address unanticipated changes.

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Figure 11 Sensors, Devices, And Wireless Make Deeper Ecosystem Engagement Possible

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Sensors and devices draw ecosystems together

The bottom line:Sensors, devices, and wireless connectivity make even deeper ecosystem engagement possible. Leaders willseize this opportunity by implementing systems of engagement capable of understanding the performanceof products and customer usage in real-time. Signi�cant market fragmentation, lack of clear vendor strategy,and the absence or nascence of standards will make progress slow; however, the opportunity will ensure it is steady.

Relative depth of technology change:We rank this in the bottom third for the depth oftechnology change required because devices andsensors are not actually part of IT. IT will face signi�cantchallenges coping with the potential data volumes, but cloud big data platforms will emerge to help.

Relative business potential:We rank this in the bottom third for businesspotential. While real-time two-way communicationswith ecosystem participants and the environmentprovide unprecedented opportunity forengagement, innovation, and disruption, they will only have a big impact on a few key verticals in the near term.

By 2016:• Data-intensive mobile tra�c will double or triple. Intelligent, self-optimizing networks will emerge that

provide seamless mobility and satisfy the spiky and unpredictable demands of constantly connectedenterprises and society. Small cells will extend operators’ networks into the enterprise, and this will bebene�cial to CIOs who are ready to leverage it.

• Internet of Things (IoT) solutions will be common in �ve verticals. Transportation, insurance,manufacturing, retail, and healthcare will see solid uptake of IoT solutions to drive e�ciency and businessmodel innovation. These successes will lead other industries to experiment with solutions.

• Wearable devices will tip mobile platform wars toward Google. The war between Apple, Google, andMicrosoft will be signi�cantly more intense as the strategies they are planning now bear fruit. Apple willbuild o� its dominance with app accessories but will run up against Android, which will have found �nd freshvigor with wearables because of its open source roots and the engagement potential of Google Glass as anapp platform. Microsoft’s current “me too” bet on smart watches will most likely be too little, too late.

Nimble and secure Trend No. 1 — “Trust” and “Identity” get a Rethink

Solving today’s security problems with yesterday’s thinking has made firms even more risk averse, rigid, and unable to react to the new pace of business. In order to engage, firms are realizing that: 1) the concept of trust is broken — it’s impossible to identify “trusted” interfaces, many data breeches comes from trusted insiders, and the concept of “trust” doesn’t even apply to data packets; 2) the extended enterprise has changed the meaning of “identity,” because digital natives use their own apps and services as well as corporate apps for productivity and have lost tolerance for IT that can’t understand who they are across both realms; and 3) the cost of a security breach can no longer be ignored (for example, our data indicates that the minimum cost of a data breech is $10 million, and in many cases it can be much larger).

Firms need to abandon quaint notions of trust to stay nimble while being secure (see Figure 12).

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Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing/sensors and remote computing. The proliferation of devices has made public cloud services must-haves for the productivity of digital natives. The influx of data from devices and sensors will make protection of data down at the packet level a must.

■ Process data management. Public cloud services are distributing data management way beyond firms’ firewalls and IAM systems. Advanced analytics at big data scale will be necessary to perform the necessary packet and log file inspection. New data governance platforms will right-size the data quality threshold to the decision at hand and will provide visibility into data usage across the firm.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Network infrastructure, IAM systems, and data-protection software must adopt Zero Trust concepts. Web-scale API patterns offer promise to revolutionize security controls, if implemented properly.

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Figure 12 Firms Need A Zero Trust Model To Secure Systems While Staying Nimble

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

“Trust” and “identity” get a rethink

The bottom line:The need for a Zero Trust security model will only get more pressing. Zero Trust security is based on theconcept that all data is tagged appropriately, down to the packet level, and all resources are secured. Allinterfaces and data are in e�ect untrusted, a “least privileged” strategy is adopted with strict access control,and all log tra�c is inspected. By applying API façade patterns to formally protect the interfaces for security,identity, and access management functions, and adopting emerging security standards, �rms will slowlybegin adopting Zero Trust concepts to secure information and enable diverse engagement scenarios within ecosystems. This radical change will occur slowly but surely, as �rms discover they must be both nimble and secure and that old approaches simply do not provide both.

Relative depth of technology change:This trend has the highest requirement for deeptechnology change, as it requires IT to implement newarchitectures for network, persistence, API, and identityand access management (IAM) systems. This will be a very deep, very slow, and potentially expensive change driven by both engagement potential and the un-ignorable cost of data breaches.

Relative business potential:We rank this trend as upper middle in businesspotential, due largely to the fact that solvingsecurity issues based on a false sense of trust willbe necessary for �rms to deeply engage customerand interact with ecosystem players.

By 2016:• Zero Trust security implementations will just be emerging. Since the Zero Trust model is a total security

rethink, and currently more concept than implementation, the next few years will see component evolution, but few or no end-to-end implementations. There will be a lot of experimentation, and by 2016 best practices will be forming.

• Organizational domains will become a secondary consideration in access control. We are already seeingthe emergence of cloud-native user repositories for employees. While the user directories for enterprises willstill be stored in hybrid form at best, access policy, governance, and runtime management solutions willrespond to the need to provide “outsiders” with entitlements and correspondingly diminish the “magic” ofhaving an employee login.

• Emerging IAM interoperability standards will merge solutions for B2E, B2B, and B2C. Major cloudservice providers such as Google, Microsoft, and salesforce.com are already rushing to implement thenewest, lightest-weight protocols for federated identity. By 2016, many small and medium-size businesses (SMBs) using these providers will be able compete with large enterprises with mature IT shops in terms of single sign-on and API security capabilities without compromising security and with positive security implications for all business functions that touch the cloud.

Nimble and secure Trend No. 2 — Infrastructure Tech Takes on engagement Demands

Time, organic growth, and old technology management paradigms have resulted in complex, rigid, and slow services that don’t match up to the reality of today’s needs. Changes are brewing that make infrastructure an enabler of business demand for engagement. We find: 1) end user computing pressure is leading to transformation, and infrastructure pros’ well-intended drive for efficiency is running up against autonomous users employing multiple devices, including ones they own, and multiple apps, including ones that IT can’t control, to complete work; 2) leading firms are

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transforming silo unified communications and collaboration (UCC), mobile device management (MDM), and desktop computing activities to deliver agile workforce computing to foster employee engagement and innovation; and 3) converged infrastructure and software-defined networks are leading to the emergence of the software-defined data center (SDDC) as the new organizational model for intelligent infrastructure management — as a result, technology infrastructure will be able to deliver blazing fast performance on a variety of workloads, all at an affordable cost and level of complexity.

Firms must invest in transforming infrastructure to eradicate rigid and complex infrastructure that cannot keep up with the new pace of business (see Figure 13).

Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing. Client virtualization will be important for access to legacy applications. Desktops are giving way to mobile devices as the computing form factor of choice. The need to manage the coming plethora of devices will drive much of the infrastructure change.

■ Sensor and remote computing. The various and extreme workloads that sensor and device data demand will create further infrastructure evolution.

■ Process data management. Advance analytic workloads and complex processes that involve both customer touchpoints and diverse on- and off-premises components are major needs that next-generation technology infrastructure must support.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Data center infrastructure management software will evolve to embrace the SDCC model, and software-defined networks (SDN) and OpenFlow will mature to provide the final component in a fully virtualized compute stack. Converged infrastructure opens the path to real SDCC implementation, new IAM models will protect information assets with security approaches designed from the ground up, and mobile device management and unified communication advances leverage the cloud for more agility, manageability, and capability.

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Figure 13 The Era Of Complex, Rigid, And Slow Infrastructure Is Drawing To A Close

Nimble and secure Trend No. 3 — Firms learn From The Cloud and Mobile

We’re now seeing massive changes as companies, driven by attempts to leverage cloud and build systems for mobile engagement, modernize the way they build applications to make them more nimble and cost effective. We find that: 1) firms want the promise of cloud but find applications must be redesigned to take advantage of cloud characteristics to benefit from it; and 2) firms find that a mobile strategy is not sufficient because apps are only one component of a larger, modern, omnichannel application architecture that must be capable of supporting systems of engagement.

Firms must close the gaps exposed by what they have learned from early mobile and cloud investments (see Figure 14).

Technologies fueling the change:

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

Infrastructure technology takes on engagement demands

The bottom line:The era of single devices, desktop preeminence, “e�ciency above all else” management tactics, messy, out-of-control infrastructure, and systems that are safely tucked behind a �rewall is drawing to a close. Businessesdemand infrastructure technologies that support the pace and place at which customer and employeesengage. New front-end and back-end technologies are emerging that make change possible; however, theshift requires more than just technology. IT executives must prioritize employee e�ectiveness overtechnology e�ciency to pull o� the change.

Relative depth of technology change:This will require some of the deepest technologychanges because, by its very nature, the coreinfrastructure is a�ected.

Relative business potential:We rate this middle of the pack in businesspotential only because it’s primarily a technologyplay to support engagement, but it won’t actuallycreate the engagement, just enable it.

By 2016:• The software-de�ned data center (SDDC) will be the organizing metaphor for virtual infrastructure.

Leaders will demonstrate substantial opex and capex savings, and this will attract crowds and create a lot of confusion and hype. SDDC will also act as a bridge between legacy systems of engagement and newsystems of record, because SDDC �exibility will allow �rms to run both types of systems on commonphysical hardware.

• Leading infrastructure orgs will demonstrate their value to user experience delivery by designingfor workloads, not apps. As �rms learn from cloud and mobile, the breaking apart of applications into individual components that can run on the appropriate infrastructure will allow design to focus on the characteristics of component workloads. This will create a lot of agility for �rms that are able to embrace the concept.

• Supply-side thinking will give way to customer advocacy for end user computing. IT pros whocontinue to limit end users in the technology they need, thinking about supply-side e�ciency and control,will �nd themselves looking for work. Emerging technologies that unify workforce computing experienceswill �nd enormous success, and this will create a customer advocacy culture in the infrastructure supportorganization.

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■ End user computing/sensor and remote computing. Mobile device and computing, and the engagement opportunities they create, are major drivers of this trend. Next-generation sensors will provide many new opportunities for innovation and disruption.

■ Process data management. Processes must undergo redesign for mobile engagement, and current BPM technologies can impede agility. Improved process management technology, application of predictive models to business rules, and case management approaches are easing this barrier. Variable-scale and potentially huge workloads required for analysis of user and environmental context data drive new cloud- and mobile-ready application designs.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Mobile-friendly technologies (HTML5, jQuery, REST APIs, etc.) continue to create new opportunities for rich user experience and engagement. Better data processing infrastructure will allow real-time analysis of mobile context in predictive models that anticipate user needs and deliver tailored insights and offers. Data center and workforce computing evolution must occur in parallel in response to this trend.

Figure 14 Lessons Uncover Serious Gaps In Application Architectures That Firms Must Overcome

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

The bottom line:The drive for mobile engagement and the e�ciency and agility provided by cloud are powerful, yet attemptsto achieve the bene�ts are uncovering serious gaps in application and infrastructure architecture. Firms arelearning how to rearchitect applications, but changes must be closely coordinated with infrastructure,leading to four-tier engagement architectures, hybrid cloud strategies, and the slow adoption of DevOpsmodels.

By 2016:• Firms will be well into the journey. The lessons of today will be applied over the next three years. Service-level agreements (SLAs) will have ceased to be an anticloud argument as �rms build availability into the application architecture to take advantage of cloud resiliency, backup, and scale-out capability. Dev teams will be free to build apps in the cloud through advancement in infrastructure capable of secure hybrid operations. Most �rms will have given up on pure private cloud fantasy in favor of advanced virtualization that integrates with public cloud services.• The di�erence between cloud and mobile will be way back in the rear-view mirror. Firms will have

given up trying to run mobile back-end services on �xed data center resources. The absolute requirement for elasticity will force public cloud adoption, even for mission-critical applications carrying protected data.

• Contextual computing will create opportunities for technology innovation. New processing capabilities and sensors are changing how users control their devices and display content — quickly changing the parameters of what is possible in the mobile context. Today all the data available is barely used, but by 2016 mobile apps will use blisteringly fast multicore processors to create responsiveness, while elastic and distributed cloud platforms will enable prediction and insight delivery.

Firms learn from the cloud and mobile

Relative depth of technology change:We rate this as middle of the pack for the depth oftechnology change. Rearchitecting applications tosupport mobile engagement and leverage the bene�tsof cloud is a big endeavor, but it will largely depend onhow far infrastructure goes in stepping up forengagement.

Relative business impact:We rank this in the top third for its businesspotential, as mastering it will enable �rms toinnovate around customer engagement anddevelop business models that leverage cloud forpro�tability.

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Nimble and secure Trend No. 4 — IT Becomes an agile service Broker (or Fades away)

In a world where smartphones could replace wallets overnight, businesses know they need agility, even if they are not quite sure what it is. For years IT has narrowly focused on agile software methods. By 2016, total agility will be necessary to help firms respond to the new pace of business. IT strategy, perspective, and skills must adapt to business demand for rapid and frequent changes in process, business intelligence, innovation, and operations. This will cultivate a more substantive conversation with the business and allow CIOs to demonstrate their relevance.

Today’s leading IT organizations are moving from aligned IT to empowered business technology (BT) practices such as: 1) taking on the role of technology service broker (workers will still need devices, and developers will still need resources, but they won’t necessarily need IT to get them); 2) adapting delivery to mobile, cloud, and big data reality, and as a result rethinking their software development life cycle (SDLC), architecture, and solution development practices; 3) reorienting portfolio management away from projects and toward products, because project silos and short-term focus limit organizations’ ability to get the most from their technology investments; and 4) replacing the project management “iron triangle” of time, cost, and resources with value, capacity, and time-to-market metrics.

IT must adapt to the new pace of business by transforming to BT, or risk irrelevance (see Figure 15).

Technologies fueling the change include:

■ End user computing/sensors and remote computing. Continued uptake of smartphones and tablets, the adoption of new user interface technologies such as motion and natural language, and the emergence of new form factors such as glasses and watches drive the need for more flexible IT processes, because of the pace at which these technologies emerge.

■ Process data management. Self-service BI and process management tools have made businesspeople smart. Tech-savvy, empowered digital natives want their data and want to manage their own processes, and they will no longer accept long, expensive IT projects for what they perceive are minor configuration changes.

■ Infrastructure and application platforms. Next-generation, strategy-oriented portfolio management and EA management suites will merge. Cloud-based development and testing tools and advanced collaboration accelerate IT delivery processes.

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Figure 15 The New Pace Of Business Forces IT To Adapt

Source: Forrester Research, Inc.104141

IT becomes an agile service broker (or fades away)

The bottom line:Driven by the expectations of digital natives and the enormous disruptive potential created by emergingtechnology, �rms are adapting to the new pace of business and engaging customers, partners, theirenvironment, and employees di�erently. Leaner, product-focused, DevOps-style IT organizations willsuccessfully broker and govern service delivery with a new set of processes and skills. Sourcing and vendormanagement must play a big role by shifting from gatekeeper to ecosystem enablers, supporting data and intellectual property sharing models, and orchestrating complex agreements between vendors and partners. IT organizations that cannot keep this pace will drag on their �rms until the pain becomes unacceptable.

Relative depth of technology change:We rank this at the bottom for depth of technology change required because it is primarily about IT process change.

Relative business impact:We rank this at the bottom of our trends for business potential because it is mainly aboutcentral IT stepping up or stepping out of the way.This makes the trend a foundational elementinstead of a delivery path for direct businessbene�t.

By 2016:• Leading IT will give up business alignment; laggards will fall back to what they know. Today, aligning

to the business is still a top priority for IT leaders, but this is a futile e�ort. IT executives of leading �rms willbe at the business strategy table cocreating approaches that enable engagement; IT leaders who have notbuilt trust and earned a seat at the business table will fall back to defensive, keep-the-lights-on operations.

• We won’t be talking about “shadow IT” anymore. In the past, IT organizations threatened by businesstechnology self-service and delivery have gone on seek-and-destroy missions against shadow IT. Thisattitude is increasingly rare, but clients still talk about it. By 2016, IT will have either 1) embraced means tomonitor, support, and harden business led technology investments, or 2) given up.

• Technology digestion will create new opportunities. Technology investment goes in cycles, as waves ofnew technology uncover gaps in the previous generation’s methods and infrastructure capabilities. For example, the majority of executives we talk to acknowledge the need to replace their mobile back-end platforms to enable their business’s plans for engagement. Leading �rms will spend the trust currency they have earned in negotiating for the investments necessary to deliver on the promise of emerging technology. They wwill employ agile processes to deliver next-generation nimble platforms that can sustain systems ofengagement in a world gone mobile.

W h at I t M e a n s

yoU aRe NoT aT The CeNTeR oF yoUR eCosysTeM

Conventional wisdom encourages firms to dominate their ecosystem. Firms assume that once dominance is achieved, they can simply push their brand message out the market and the profits will roll in. Fickle customers, smart competitors, ubiquitous connectivity, and the ability to rapidly understand and adapt are changing all of this. Successful firms realize that:

■ Dominance is temporary, but profitability shouldn’t be. Sure, if you can be Apple, do it, but even giants like Wal-Mart that once dominated their market now have stiff competition

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and suppliers that do business with competitors as well. Staying profitable means being able to identify and pursue new opportunities, and the pace of business means these might not be obvious until they are right upon your business.

■ Long-term profitability depends on cooperative, two-way relationships. Instead of pushing information and brand messaging to ecosystem players, tomorrow’s leaders will establish collaborative, two-way relationships with them. Even as technology erodes old barriers to competition, rich digital experiences, ease of information access, and strong partnerships will erect new ecosystem-oriented barriers that competitors will have difficulty breeching.

■ Digital information is the lifeblood of business, which makes IT its circulatory system. As we move more deeply into the digital age, and digital natives take leadership and management roles, firms will slowly shed ideas born from analog thinking. As the beating heart and circulatory system that keep digital information moving, aligned IT “order-takers” will transform or be replaced by organizations and technologies that can keep the pace.

sUPPleMeNTal MaTeRIal

Methodology

Forrester’s Q3 2013 Global State Of Enterprise Architecture Online Survey was fielded to 166 IT professionals involved in or familiar with EA from our ongoing IT research panel and readers who have demonstrated an interest in EA research. The panel consists of volunteers who join on the basis of interest and familiarity with specific IT topics. For quality assurance, panelists are required to provide contact information and answer basic questions about their firms’ revenue and budgets.

Forrester fielded the survey from August to September 2013. Respondent incentives included a summary of the survey results, research, and a complimentary webinar that discusses the survey results.

Forrester’s Q3 2012 Global State Of Enterprise Architecture Online Survey was fielded to 335 IT professionals involved in or familiar with EA from our ongoing IT research panel and readers who have demonstrated an interest in EA research. The panel consists of volunteers who join on the basis of interest and familiarity with specific IT topics. For quality assurance, panelists are required to provide contact information and answer basic questions about their firms’ revenue and budgets.

Forrester fielded the survey from September to October 2012. Respondent incentives included a summary of the survey results, research, and a complimentary webinar that discusses the survey results.

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Forrester’s September 2011 Global State Of Enterprise Architecture Online Survey was fielded to 543 IT professionals involved in or familiar with EA from our ongoing IT research panel and readers who have demonstrated an interest in EA research. The panel consists of volunteers who join on the basis of interest and familiarity with specific IT topics. For quality assurance, panelists are required to provide contact information and answer basic questions about their firms’ revenue and budgets.

Forrester fielded the survey from September to October 2011. Respondent incentives included a summary of the survey results, research, and a complimentary webinar that discusses the survey results.

Forrester’s Forrsights Business Decision-Makers Survey, Q4 2012, was fielded to 3,616 business decision-makers located in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, the UK, and the US from SMB and enterprise companies with 100 or more employees. This survey is part of Forrester’s Forrsights for Business Technology and was fielded from August 2012 to November 2012. LinkedIn Research Network fielded this survey online on behalf of Forrester. Survey respondent incentives include gift certificates and research reports. We have provided exact sample sizes in this report on a question-by question basis.

Each calendar year, Forrester’s Forrsights for Business Technology fields business-to-business technology studies in more than 17 countries spanning North America, Latin America, Europe, and developed and emerging Asia. For quality control, we carefully screen respondents according to job title and function. Forrester’s Forrsights for Business Technology ensures that the final survey population contains only those with direct oversight of their team’s or group’s budget. Additionally, we set quotas for company size (number of employees) and job function as a means of controlling the data distribution. Forrsights uses only superior data sources and advanced data-cleaning techniques to ensure the highest data quality.

We have illustrated only a portion of survey results in this document. To inquire about receiving full data results for an additional fee, please contact [email protected] or your Forrester account manager.

analysts Interviewed For This Report

William Band

Dave Bartoletti

Jennifer Belissent, Ph.D.

Sudhanshu Bhandari

Kurt Bittner

Gene Cao

Tony Costa

Charlie Dai

Tim DeGennaro

Henry Dewing

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Rachel A. Dines

Boris Evelson

Michael Facemire

Nigel Fenwick

Richard Fichera

Michele Goetz

Charles S. Golvin

Frank E. Gillett

Frederic Giron

Mike Gualtieri

Katyayan Gupta

Paul D. Hamerman

Randy Heffner

Liz Herbert

David K. Johnson

Christian Kane

Philipp Karcher

TJ Keitt

Holger Kisker, Ph.D.

Eve Maler

John C. McCarthy

Cheryl McKinnon

Christopher Mines

Michele Pelino

Stefan Ried, Ph.D.

Sarah Rotman Epps

John R. Rymer

Ted Schadler

Tyler Shields

James Staten

Clement Teo

Margo Visitacion

Alan Weintraub

Noel Yuhanna

eNDNoTes1 According to the United Nations International Telecommunication Union, in 2013 there will be 6.8

billion mobile cellular subscriptions and 2.1 mobile active mobile broadband subscriptions. According to the World Population Clock at Princeton University, there are approximately 7.1 billion people on the planet as of this writing. Source: ICT Data And Statistics Division, International Telecommunication Union, “ICT Facts And Figures,” February 2013 (http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFactsFigures2013.pdf); The World Population Clock, Office of Population Research at Princeton University (http://opr.princeton.edu/popclock/).

2 Source: “Obama Administration Launches Sweeping Shift to Mobile,” The White House press release, May 23, 2012 (http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/23/obama-administration-launches-sweeping-shift-mobile); LowesLink website (http://www.loweslink.com); and Hiscox website (http://www.hiscoxusa.com).

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3 Source: Quantified Self Labs website (http://quantifiedself.com).

4 For a more in-depth discussion of this trend, see the March 21, 2013, “The Coming Integration Of Personal Cloud Services And Enterprise Apps” report.

5 For a description of data partner ecosystems and data brokers, see the August 8, 2013, “Getting The Most Out Of Open Data” report.

6 In 2011, we included big data and advanced analytics in the BI category along with reporting, visualization, and analytics. Starting in 2012, we removed big data from other business intelligence and further split it into batch and real-time. This makes it impossible to attribute the drop in BI reporting, visualization, and analytics to drop in opinion; however, our conversations with clients and general monitoring of the market pulse indicate that clients are indeed regarding “standard” BI as less revolutionary and more evolutionary in impact.

7 Engagement has been used in reference to the relationship between companies and their customers, but a key takeaway from Forrester’s Forum For Customer Experience East 2013 conference was that engaged employees are a big contributor to customer experience improvement. See the September 24, 2013, “Key Takeaways From Forrester’s 2013 Customer Experience Forum: Engage Employees” report.

8 The phrase “outside in” was conceived by Forrester’s customer experience analysts to indicate a shift from viewing customers through the lens of your business to viewing your business through the lens of your customers. We use it here to indicate that we began our trends analysis by looking at how technology is changing customer, partner, and employee behavior, then examining the way firms are using technology in response.

9 We describe urgency in terms of the maximum number of months a typical team should take before formulating a response. We also provide an assessment of complexity, but note that we are not assessing pure technical complexity. Rather, our evaluation also considers organizational change, process, and cultural factors.

10 Traditional interaction models have run out of gas. See the April 12, 2013, “Customer Experience In The Post-PC Era” report.

11 We surveyed 3,616 North American, European, Asia Pacific, and Latin American business budget decision-makers, and 18% of respondents said that improving the use of data and analytics to improve business decisions and outcomes was a critical priority and an additional 37% rated it a high priority when asked,

“Which of the following technology initiatives are you asking IT to prioritize over the next 12 months?” Source: Forrsights Business Decision-Makers Survey, Q4 2012.

Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) is an independent research company that provides pragmatic and forward-thinking advice to global leaders in business and technology. Forrester works with professionals in 13 key roles at major companies providing proprietary research, customer insight, consulting, events, and peer-to-peer executive programs. For more than 29 years, Forrester has been making IT, marketing, and technology industry leaders successful every day. For more information, visit www.forrester.com. 104141

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