top 50 technologies techvision 2020 program

Top 50 Technologies TechVision 2020 Program

Beatrice ShepherdVice President Frost & Sullivan CEE & RussiaMoscow, 2012

Global Top 10 Hot Technologies to Invest

“Valley of Death”

“Diffusion of Innovation”

Top 10 Hot Technologies

InnovationCenter

GLOBAL

TechnologyMarketing

TechnologyDue diligenceBiotech

BEST PRACTICES

IPStrategy Growth

Team

DisclosureAnalysis

OpenInnovation

CUSTOMER

Software

LicensingStrategies

BehaviorPatent Risk:PatentabilityAssessment In-Direct

CompetitionCompetitive

Strategy

Healthcare

EmergingCompetition

COMPETITIVE

ECONOMIC

Country Risk

Green Technologies

InnovationModels

Economic Trends

EmergingTechnology

NewApplications

DisruptiveTechnologies

TECHNOLOGY

IndustryExpansionPotential

MarketAssessment

IndustryShifts

INDUSTRY

EconomicDevelopment

NanoTechnology

Map of the Complex ‘Innovation’ Universe

INTELLECTUALPROPERTY

Valley of Death (VoD)

Given the dangers of falling into the “Valley of Death”, investors need to closely assess the potential of a given technology platform to understand the true market potential it holds and to evaluate the risk-reward elements

Investor’s Guide: What, Why and How to avoid?

Diffusion of Innovation (DOI)

Basic Research Applied R&DTechnology

Demonstration Commercialization

1 2 3 4

Need

Opportunity

Funding

Capability

‘Dynamics’ of Tech Development

‘Stakeholders’ fuelling the Dynamics

Combined influence

Universities/R&D Institutes

Companies(entire value chain)

Regulatory Bodies

Government Entities

AssociationsVenture Capitalists

End-users

Original tech platform finds use

in newer applications

Tech platform ready for addressing ‘primary’ application

needs

Time lag

Process, Dynamics, Stakeholder, Applications, Impact

Stages of Tech Development

Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) …

Example: Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) - Industrial Automation & Building Automation find greatest WSN technology penetration with other applications following it as reliability increases & cost decreases in the future

Time

Diff

usio

n R

ate

Estimated Global Market Size by 2014 = $2.9 Billion

Cross Over Point

Industrial Automation

Current technology is based on a number of platforms driven by different industry

stakeholders: IEEE 802.15.4, ZigBee, 6LoWPAN etc.

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Based on a derivative of ‘Bass Diffusion model’, the DOI curve indicates the different rates at which markets/ applications are expected to adopt “Wireless Sensor Networks” (WSN).

The cumulative impact of the different rates is on the tech and its continued adoption over a period of time.

The landscape also witnesses ‘cross over points’ whereby driven by multidimensional factors, a certain industry becomes the ‘lead driver’ over ‘early adopter’ – signalling a change in evolutionary pattern.

Building Automation

Environment& Agriculture

Mission Critical

(Nuclear Plants, Space)

Location &Tracking

Healthcare

Example – Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN)

Early Adopters Followers Laggards

Selection Methodology

• Create a pool of technologies (> 25) that are poised to have a significant impact in the near-mid term

• Develop 1st level filter criterions to assess true potential of technologies across applications

• Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologiesby testing them against 2nd level criterions

Step 1Collection of Technologies

across Industries

Step 22 phased evaluation of

Technologies to identify the top candidates

Approach

Step 0Framework finalization

1. For the purpose of this exercise, Frost & Sullivan used the Technology Analysis Framework (TAF)

2. Interrelation & dynamics between these focal points govern technology development, adoption and deployment in any industry for any technology

Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies …

Top 50 Technology Web

Technology Overview

• Nanocatalysts utilize nanomaterials for homogenous and heterogeneous catalytic reactions. They increase the functionality and specificity of the catalytic reactions, while reducing the reaction time. Nanocatalysts can be particulate, porous, crystalline or supra molecular in nature. They are used in applications pertaining to alternative energy, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas to name a few.

Why is it important?• Nanocatalysts exhibit better performance than conventional catalysts. Their nanoscale nature

results in the greater availability of catalyst, leading to increased catalytic performance and utilization of raw materials, faster reaction time, and improved quality of the reactions. Nanocatalysts are ecologically benign and are consider “green” when compared to conventional catalysts.

Year of Impact

• You’ll see nanocatalysts making an impact this year; they will have a significant impact in the Alternate Energy and Oil and Gas sectors for fuel conversion reactions and biofuel synthesis. The nanocatalysts has applications in drug delivery, gene therapy and biosensors in the pharmaceutical industry. They can be used in the manufacture of cosmetics, agrochemicals, plastics and industrial chemicals.

Nanomaterials: Technology Snapshot

Technology Adoption0

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Technology Maturity0

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Nanomaterials: Technology Development and Adoption Footprint

North America•DOE and NSF funding has led to the development and adoption of nanocatalysts in the manufacture of biofuels, fine chemicals and water purification methods. •Industrial funding in the pharmaceutical and personal care sector has enabled the use of nanocatalysts for drug delivery, gene therapy, biosensors and cosmetics.

China / Japan / Taiwan•The countries are concentrating on developing nanocatalysts for chemical industry.

Europe•Stringent government regulations and funding from DEFRA has driven the applications of nanocatalysts for developing biofuels and use iin waste water treatment.•Automobile companies are funding the research and development of nanocatalysts for fuel cells and portable power units

Australia•Australia is working on the use of nanocatalysts for fuel cells and auto catalysts

India•Research is still in developmental stages•Industrial collaborations have resulted in the use of nanocatalysts for the manufacture of fine chemicals


Intensity of Technology Development

Very High

High

Medium

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Very Low

Middle East•Industries and universities fund the development of nanocatalysts in crude oil desulfurization, catalytic cracking and reforming of petroleum; this has led to the adoption of nanocatalysts in the oil and gas sector.

Technology Overview

• Smart textiles are defined as textiles capable of superior performance thought the aid of electronics and superior engineered materials.

• In the most recent Olympics, we witnessed several new world records in swimming, partly due to technologically enhanced swimsuits.

Why is it important?

• Smart textiles as a market has seen exponential growth over the past few years. • Apart from being applicable for sports, smart textiles are used in healthcare protective

gear and military applications• Currently, the smart textiles market is fragmented as the technology caters to high end and

niche applications.

Year of Impact

• The technology for smart textiles is expected to be widely adopted in some niche applications such as firefighting and sports in the next two to three years provided the issues related to cost and ease of manufacturing in large scale are overcome. Smart textiles have the potential to become fashionable yet life saving.


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Smart Textiles: Technology Snapshot

Smart Textiles: Funding Trends

• The largest area of application is military apparel. This is because any advantage in a combat field can never be underestimated. In this regard, smart textiles have the ability to provide superior camouflage functionality. This benefit has driven increased government funding for smart textiles in the recent years.

• The next most significant area of research focus is Healthcare. This is driven by high costs of specialist healthcare personnel.

• Sportswear is also a key area of research focus as the textiles used in sports applications provide some superior characteristics when compared to normal wear. For example, swimwear can show superior hydrophobic properties.

Application Sectors

Military

Healthcare

Sports Wear

Specialty Applications

Military

38%

Healthcare

29%

Sportswear19%

Speciality Applications

14%

Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage

Fuel Cell

Electric Vehicle

Micro UAVSolider

ModernizationHuman Energy

Harvesting

Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Funding Trends

• The US government began active funding of advanced energy storage R&D only in the last few years.

• The high portion of US public spending in energy storage for transportation is mainly due to $400 million being set aside for demonstration purposes, whereas grid-scale demonstration has been provided a budget of $185 million.

• In late 2009, DOE awarded grants for the construction of 150-MW/10-hour and 300-MW/10-hour advanced second-generation CT-CAES units to New York State Electric & Gas and PG&E, respectively.

Public spending on transportation-related energy storage, 2008‐ 2011

$271 million$597 million

$50 million

Funding from DOE and Recovery Act for Energy Storage, 2009 - 2010

• Discounting China from the top spenders of public spending (due to the unavailability of data), the US, Japan, Germany and France then emerge as the Top 4 spenders with regards to energy storage for transportation applications, due to the countries’ association with automotive manufacturing.

• Interestingly, spending on fuel cell RD&D actually outpaced that of batteries.

Source: IEA, 2011

Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Technology Landscape

Uninterruptable Power SupplyPower Quality

Transmission & Distribution Grid Support

Load Shifting and Leveling

Bulk Power & Energy Management

Lithium air (Li-air) & Lithium sulfur (Li-S) Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)Phase Change Materials

Fuel Cells

Advanced Lead-Acid

Flow Batteries (Vanadium Flow, Vanadium Redox, Zinc-Bromine, etc.)

Lithium Ion (Li-ion)

Flywheels

Ultra-/Supercapacitors

Sodium Nickel Chloride (Na/NiCl2)

Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)

Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) Sodium Sulfur (NaS)

Molten Salts

Lead-Acid BatteriesPumped Hydro

Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH)

Mature

Commercial

Demonstration-Scale

Basic R&D

1 kW 100 kW 1 MW 100 MW 1 GWSystem Power Ratings, Module Size

Thin film PVKey Insight: Solar accounted for 27% (119 deals in 2010)

of the overall number of VC and Private Equity investments in the Renewable Energy Sector

China Installation of PV in China is largely due to the desire to improve rural infrastructure. Although China has emerged to become the largest producer of PV modules in the world, the country is still relatively weak in thin film R&D. Most thin film R&D is undertaken by the academic sector, where certain R&D institutions have developed thin film PV with higher efficiencies, including Nankai University (CIGS, 14.3%), and Sichuan University (CdTe, 13.4%).

FranceA major R&D project in France is POLYSIL, which started in December 2009. Focusing on the development of thin film PV, the project aims to give France a leading edge in thin film PV technology. Another key stakeholder is IRDEP, a R&D institution that is focusing on reducing production costs of PV modules, improved PV conversion efficiencies and processes for thin film deposition.

GermanyIn 2010, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU) provided EUR 39.1 million to support R&D projects on PV, spread out over 152 projects. In the area of thin film, focus was on silicon and CIS technologies. In addition, Germany has several active companies in thin film PV, including silicon thin film (10 companies, 420 MW production capacity), CIS (11 companies, 310 MW) and CdTe (3 companies, 260 MW)



Very High

High

Medium

Low

Very Low

United StatesThe US Department of Energy (DOE) supported the Solar Energy Technologies Program (SETP) with $225 million in 2010 and $117 million from the Recovery Act. In 2010, the DOE funded the third and final year of more than 20 Next Generation program projects in 11 different areas. A total of $8 million will be set aside for the development of advanced thin films.

Thin Film PV: Funding Trends

• Between 2007 and 2008, more than $1.6 billion in venture capital was invested globally in thin film PV, which has resulted in the establishment of more than 100 start-ups.

• Most VC investment was focused on CIGS, which has shown the highest efficiencies among all the thin film PV technologies, although manufacturing costs for CIGS are still relatively higher.

• Of the 10 largest clean-tech VC deals in USA in 2010, three were for thin film PV (Solyndra, Abound Solar and Miasole), with an average investment of $130 million.

Public spending on Solar PV RD&D for selected countries, 2010

Venture capital spending on Thin Film PV, 2007 - 2008

• Many countries are still investing a large percentage of their public R&D spending on R&D and deployment of solar technologies.

• Top national spenders were USA, Japan, Korea, France and Australia.

• Data on public spending in China was not available. However, based on China’s interest on clean energy R&D, it is expected that public spending would be higher, or at least equivalent to that of USA.

Technology Overview

• Renewable chemicals refers to the development of environmentally friendly, sustainable chemicals that can be used to replace traditional petrochemicals.

• The main feedstock for renewable chemicals are usually obtained from sugar, starch and vegetable oil feedstock. Biomass can also be used as a feedstock, but requires pretreatment processing to convert it to simple sugars.

• The simplest method to produce renewable chemicals is by using fermentation.


• Renewable chemicals are considered a more environment-friendly alternative to chemicals derived from fossil fuels. Increased adoption of renewable chemicals will lead to less carbon emissions, as well as reduced environmental impact.

• The production of renewable chemicals is also driven by the volatility of oil prices, as bulk chemical producers are attempting to widen their product portfolio so as to lessen their risk towards volatile oil prices.

Year of Impact

• Renewable chemicals have been available for several years, with the first sector to be impacted being the plastics industry, with the introduction of bioplastics made from polylactic acid (PLA) and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA).

• Other renewable chemicals expected to be commercialized soon are succinic acid, butanol, acrylic acid, butanediols, propanediols, lactic acid, glycerine, adipic acid, ethanol, glucaric acid, propylene glycol, acetyls, and furanics.


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Renewable Chemicals: Technology Snapshot

Technology Overview

• Digital Manufacturing technology refers to the use of simulation tools and product lifecycle management software, and ICT solutions to achieve higher productivity in manufacturing, thereby increasing competitiveness.

• The removal of global trade barriers, and the creation of globally distributed manufacturing necessitates the transition to a digital manufacturing enterprise.

• Also, called e-manufacturing technologies in this domain facilitate the link between the ‘top floor’ and ‘shop floor’ wherein information from plant automation and control systems can be fed to higher level information layers of the enterprise for decision making and strategy management.


• There is a dire need to achieve a competitive edge with low cost overseas manufacturing locations,

and this applies to small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) as well. This can be achieved by utilizing digital manufacturing to achieve cost economics, reducing time to market of products, improving responsiveness to customers, and acquiring the ability for mass customization.

• Companies can keep pace with competition for developing futuristic products if product lifecycle management (PLM) solutions are adopted, and simulation tools are effectively used for product development and process optimization.

Impact• Usage of digital manufacturing for collaborative new product design, agile manufacturing, and

supply chain integration can be seen in competitive markets. However, there is tremendous untapped potential across several manufacturing streams, which include small and medium scale enterprises.


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Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Snapshot

Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Development and Adoption Footprint

North America • Companies utilizing digital innovation for new product

launches using product lifecycle management tools and software

• Direct digital manufacturing of intricate parts for medical devices, and electronics

• Adoption of new materials in manufacturing accelerated by modelling and simulation tools, especially by aerospace and automotive sectors Innovative concepts such as mass customization facilitated by digital manufacturing

• Oil & Gas and chemical industry adoption of process simulation on the rise. Industry using smart manufacturing solutions provided by companies such as Aspen technology, ANSYS

China / Japan / Korea• Auto manufacturers, and

manufacturers in electronics, semiconductors and electronics are adopters of digital manufacturing.

• Vast untapped potential still exists in these markets

• Companies rapidly adopting PLM, virtual manufacturing, and virtual engineering such as usage of 3D CAD tools for modelling and simulation for new product development.

• Digital manufacturing solutions are being leveraged for the expansion of manufacturing units

Europe

• Companies such as ABB are establishing fully industrial IT-driven manufacturing facilities

• Companies like SAP, Siemens offer product lifecycle management (PLM) software platforms

• Several ongoing EU framework programme projects working towards the realization of fully IT-enabled industrial automation and enterprises

India• Indian software majors such as

Wipro, Infosys and Mahindra Satyam are developing software technologies that will enable a connected, networked engineering environment and enterprise.

• Wipro offers solutions that can help analyze, report and track key indicators of sustainability in a manufacturing organization

• Challenges exist for the use of fully integrated enterprises until industrial communication systems and networks are upgraded across factories



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3D Integration

The Road AheadCritical markers for sector growth

3D Integration Approaches

System-In-Package (SiP)

System-On-Chip (SoC)

3D Integrated Circuit (IC)

Illustrations

Flexible Electronics

Current Developments/ProductsMarket Potential

Technology

ConsumerElectronics

Potential Markets with connected needs Medical

Devices

Military

Food Packaging

SupplyChain

Global CAGR (2009 - 2014) >19%

North America – 28%

Europe – 32%

APAC – 36%

ROW – 4%

Flexible Electronics: Patent Landscape

Top Patent holders in the area of Flexible Electronics: Konarka holds more patents in this area.

Geography wise Patent Distribution:Innovations emerging from North America is observed to be more compared to other regions of the world.

Patent Distribution as per Inventor Geographical Location: While United States has the highest number of inventors, certain regions of Europe and Israel also has strong foothold in this industry.

Patent Filing Trend as per Publication Years:While the US applications follow a nearly constant trend in the past 5 years, European patents have risen marginally.

Technology Overview

• Semantic Web Technology is a collation of different methods and technologies that serve as an extension to the web by appending new data and meta data to the existing content. This technology empowers the computer to process and understand the data available on the web, extrapolate useful information for the user

• It incorporates markup languages, frameworks, querying tools such as Web Ontology Language (OWL) and Resource Description Framework (RDF)


• Semantic Web adds meaning and structure to the content on the web. It assists the computer to understand relationships between different data sources to make logical connections and decisions

• Equips the software agent to identify, analyze, evaluate and combine the information across multiple resources. Performs sophisticated tasks for end users, automates different operations with minimal human intervention

Year of Impact

• Semantic web has become the buzz word of the internet since 2010. The semantic web space has witnessed the rise of start ups and consumer based product offerings. With enterprise inclination towards intuitive analytics continuing to increase, 2012 and 2013 could be rightly cited as the years of major impact for semantic technologies

• Generation of critical insights from customer experience data offers significant business potential across verticals

Technology Adoption

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Semantic Web: Technology Snapshot

Technology Overview

• Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a fourth generation (4G) cellular network technology that promises to offer enhanced data rates and capacity for mobile broadband connectivity

• The technology has garnered the attention of several large carrier network operators- many operators have abandoned WiMAX, a competing 4G technology, in favour of LTE.


• Cellular network operators across the globe have been struggling to support the surging

data traffic on their networks. With the advent and widespread adoption of powerful smartphones, mobile data traffic has risen drastically

• LTE, owing to its ability to facilitate improved data rates and capacity, is cited as a solution for cellular network capacity crunch

Year of Impact• The time division duplex (TDD) version of LTE is expected to be widely deployed as the

availability of unpaired spectrum can be leveraged for LTE TDD deployments. Major deployments are expected in India in 2011, followed by China and Japan in 2012

Technology Adoption

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Long Term Evolution:Technology Snapshot

Technology Overview

• Following the complete sequencing of the human genome and the availability of the annotated human genome sequence online, DNA analysis has become a routine procedure.

• Emergence of novel technologies for global genomic analysis (high throughput sequencing, transcript profiling, SNP genotyping), haplotype mapping, and bioinformatics has revolutionized the information available about the human genome.


• Genomics provides structural and organizational information and aims to improve the ability to predict the manner in which genetic variation affects susceptibility to disease, response to medical treatments, and how other important phenotypes, will have a transformative effect on health care.

• Reductions in sequencing costs and improvements in the speed at which sequences can be generated are ushering the era for personal genomics.

Year of Impact

• Automated procedures are commercialized to prepare DNA for sequencing and analysis broadly for health assessment, therapeutic decisions, and predicting phenotypes of interest.

• Entire human genome can now be sequenced for a retail cost of $20,000 and NHGRI part of the U.S. National Institute of Health has set a target to be able to sequence a human-sized genome for US $1,000 by 2014


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Genome Sequencing: Technology Snapshot

Thank You

Beatrice Shepherd

Vice President Frost & Sullivan

Frost & Sullivan CEE, Russia and CIS

[email protected]

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