Tools for Workforce Planning

Virginia McCririck

Six Steps to Workforce Planning

• 1) Define Purpose of the Plan

• 2) Map the Service Change and how it will impact on the workforce

• 3) Assess demand for the workforce based on the service delivery model

• 4) Assess supply of staff available now and in the future

• 5) Develop and action plan to bridge gaps in demand and supply now and in the future

• 6) Implement and review

Step 1 – Defining the Plan

• Purpose

– Problems to resolve?

– What does plan aim to achieve?

• Scope

– What organisations are covered by the plan?

– What types of staff are covered?

– What client groups are covered?

– Timescale

• Ownership

– Who owns the plan?

– Stakeholder involvement?

What tools will help with Step 1?

• Stake holder mapping

• PESTLE analysis - key drivers for change

• SWOT analysis

Power/Interest Matrix of Stakeholders

Level of Interest1 2 3 4 5

1

A. Minimal Effort B. Keep Informed

2

3

4

5

Power

Low

High

Code Advocates & Supporters Blocks & Critics Neutral

CYPD Adult Social Care CSV/Volunteers

Service Users

Carers Forum

Office for Third Sector Social Enterprise Unit

CarersCTALD Team

Staff/TU’s Commissioners Elected Members

PCT/SHA Supporting People Team

High

D. Key PlayersC. Keep Satisfied

Continuum of Commitment Analysis

Stake-holder

Obstructing No Commitment

Let It Happen

Help it Happen

Make it Happen

A x O

B X O

C O x

D x O

X = Currently

O = Where we need them to be for successful change

Based on Beckhard & Harris (1987) Organisational Transitions: Managing Complex Change. For more information see NHS Institute’s Social Movement Handbook “The Power of One – The Power of Many”

Organisation

Political

Environmental

Social-Cultural Factors

Technological

Economic Factors

Legal

Pestle Analysis - Key Drivers for Change

Appraise your environment

Use a SWOT Analysis

Involve staff and other stakeholders

– What do we do well?

– What could we do better?

– What are we not making the most of?

– What are we worried about?

Step 2 – Map the Service Change

Process of Service Re-design to meet service user choice, financial constraints, improved efficiency, changes in care through technology

Critical stage - focus on intended benefits and what is achievable

Key to get wide stakeholder involvement in this step

• Current baseline - of service costs and performance measures

• What forces will support the change and what will resist it?

• What are the options? What scenarios for service change have been considered?

• What is the preferred service delivery model? Is it realistic given financial realities? Will it lead to improved outcomes for service users?

What tools will help with Step 2?

• Scenario Planning

• Culture web mapping

• Tools for service improvement –

– LEAN methodologies

– Systems thinking

– Action learning

– Allowing space for new things to emerge

Scenario Planning

What is it?

Provides a framework to consider what the future holds• Identifies new risks and challenges in the future - helps to prepare for the

unexpected• Enables you to expand your vision and think of alternative futures• Most useful when there is limited clarity on the future• Helps to balance intuition, judgment and fact• Recognises that forecasting is notoriously difficult

Where has it been used?

Private sector companies, eg, Shell, Body Shop,• NHS

How do you do it?

• There is no set approach - depends on organisation, situation etc…

One approach to Scenario Planning

• Identify issues and forces that will shape the service and/or care pathway over a defined period of time

• Identify those that will have most impact

• Identify those that give the most uncertainty

• Identify 2 issues that cause most worry from this list and map against each other, taking a positive and negative view of each one

• Consider if there may be any wild cards coming into play

• Then consider what it will look like in each of the scenarios you have created

– Identify what this will mean for the service design

– Identify what this will mean for the workforce

– Identify what this will mean for service users

– Identify what this mean for partners along the delivery chain

• Are any common issues identified?

• What are the risk factors that you need to mitigate against?

Demand and Supply Scenarios Quadrants

SU

PP

LY

for in

stitution

al care R

ISE

S

Specialist GrowthSpecialised provision

refines & matches rising demand in specialist areas.

Supports maximising independence choice and

control.

Mixed bag – Whose vision?

Some specialist provision grows but also mainstream

institutional investment undermines choice & control

maximisation.

Markets Rule OK?Availability sucks in people to institutional placements.

Perverse drivers and dysfunctional outcomes for

people. x

New World Choices

Providers diversify, innovate & respond. Supports different

supply against rising demography & changing

expectations. Good outcomes

SU

PP

LY

for in

stitution

al care FA

LL

S

DEMAND for institutional care HIGH

DEMAND for institutional care LOW

Scenario Planning – useful links:

• Improvement & Development Agency for Local Government (IDeA) – www.idea.gov.uk

• Shell - www.shell.com

Culture Web Mapping

The way we do things around here - very hard to change

Tool which enables a group to:

• Identify what they “take for granted”

• Identify barriers to change

• Identify those things which will be very difficult to change

• Identify those things which need to change

• Develop practical ideas for implementing strategic change

Extracted from Johnson and Scholes

Cultural “From – To” Table Example

From… To…

Difficulty getting staff to work as a team

Staff calling in on their day off to help achieve the services targets

Staff bringing problems and complaints to manager to sort

“This was the problem and this is what we’ve done about it”

Clients told when to get out of bed Clients able to choose when to get up in the morning

Step 3 – Assess Workforce Demand

• Assess current & future demand for services

– Joint Strategic Needs Assessment– POPPI data– SAS data

• What is the impact of service re-design - on tasks and role design?

• What is the impact of new technology - on tasks and role design?

• What tasks could be better performed elsewhere in the delivery chain for the care pathway?

• What achieves the best outcomes for service users?

• Review this once you have completed Step 4 - how realistic is your new service model?

What tools will help with Step 3?

Demand forecasting

• Ratio Analysis

• Trend analysis

• Cost analysis

Benchmarking

• productivity level comparison, internal and external

Systems thinking

Role re-design

• Aiming to achieve a picture of the sort of workforce you will require - numbers and skills

Step 4 – Assess Workforce Supply

• The current workforce - what are the key characteristics of it?

• Workforce forecasting - internal and external supply of workers

• Options for increasing supply?

• Options for working differently?

Key Steps in Internal Supply Forecasting

• Obtain data on current workforce numbers and skills in each skills cluster/occupational group for whom forecast is to be generated

• Analyse each group by age, length of service, diversity classification, current performance, future potential

• Forecast future ‘wastage’ (i.e. losses) based on trends in past turnover and estimates of the likelihood that these will continue

• Project retirements

• Look at past trends in transfer/promotion out of the occupational group to other occupational groups in the organisation

External Supply Forecasting

• Research into skills shortages and recruitment difficulties

• Trends and projections in the educational output of people with the relevant skills and qualifications (possibly locally, nationally and internationally)

• Trends in population movements in the area(s) concerned or wider migratory patterns nationally or internationally

• Competitive factors in the labour market, locally or more widely

• Changing expectations about work and working conditions or benefits

• Pay rates operating in the local labour market

Step 5 – Developing an Action Plan

• Gap analysis

• Priority planning

• Action planning

• Risks to achieving the outcomes

• Managing the change

Internal strategies (‘grow’ your own) could involve:

• Work restructuring and skills change

• Changing (eg flexible) work patterns

• Training and development

• Retraining

• Promotion/succession plans

• Redeployment

• Redundancy

External strategies (‘buy in’) could involve:

• External recruitment of qualified staff

• External recruitment of trainee staff

• Other measures to influence supply, such as educational sponsorship

• Strategic partnering

• Shared services

• Outsourcing

• Branding – ‘employer of choice’

• Forecast supply and demand

• Work across organisations

• Employability of local workforce

• Retain local workforce

Short Term

Menu of recruitment and retention options available to councils

Outward facing

Long Term

Inward facing

• Better use of agency staff

• Pay and benefits

• E-recruitment

• Flexible working

• Reduce sickness absence

• Scenario planning

• Target under-represented groups

• Balance workforce profile

• Total rewards package

• Technology i.e mobile working

Step 6 - Implementation, Monitoring and Review

• Implementation

• Measuring progress

• Revisit Each Step - it is an iterative process

Helpful Resources

• “Tomorrow’s People” - Audit Commission Report 2008 - includes some group work exercises - www.audit-commission.gov.uk

• “What does a Commissioning Framework Look Like?” - ADASS 2007

• www.aruspex.com - American website with some helpful resources

• Improvement and Development Agency website on workforce - some helpful examples of learning from integrated workforce planning

• Skills for Care - www.skillsforcare.org.uk

• Skills for Health - www.skillsforhealth.org.uk

• South West Regional Efficiency & Improvement Partnership – www.southwestiep.gov.uk/skillsdevelopment/lean.htm

• Virginia McCririck, Transforming Adult Social Care Regional Implementation Lead for Workforce - virginia.mccririck@dh.gsi.gov.uk

Mobile contact - 07767 647447