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Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve Today’s Presenters
Eric Ross Esther Strawder
FHWA- Office of Infrastructure FHWA-Office of Safety
TPM Engineer Safety Specialist
[email protected] [email protected] Nathaniel Coley Michael Nesbitt FHWA- Office of Infrastructure FHWA- Office of Infrastructure Economist Stakeholder Engagement Liaison [email protected] [email protected]
FHWA Transportation Performance Management
FHWA Program Performance Management 2
Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve
LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM
TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management
March 25, 2013
Eric Ross [email protected]
Transportation Performance Management Engineer
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LCCA and RealCost in Map-21/TPM
• LCCA – Economic Analysis
– Compares Different Alternatives
– Discount Rates
• What Do you need? – Agency costs
Design, Activity timing,
Structural Life, Functional Life,
Analysis Period, ….
– User Costs
Activity Duration, Capacities,
Speeds, ADT, Operating Costs, …
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Life Cycle
Terminal Serviceability Index
Condit
ion
Initial
Activity Activity One Activity Two
Time
Service
Life
Analysis Period
When will the future maintenance and rehabilitation costs be incurred?
FHWA Transportation Performance Management
Present Value =
of Costs
N
k = 0 Σ o(C
1
(1 + d)nk
tk) x
Present Value Factor
s
Cost = Cost of the activity
N = length of analysis period
d = discount rate
nk = year of expenditure
Computing Life-Cycle Costs
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Alternative A
Alternative B
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Fre
qu
en
cy,
%
Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions
Probabilistic Approach
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Net Present Value (NPV), $Millions
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Pro
ba
bilit
y, %
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
- 2.50 - 2.00 - 1.50 - 1.00 - 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
60% of the Time Alternative A will be Less than Alternative B.
Difference Distribution Curve
Alt A – Alt B
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LCCA Software - RealCostTM
FHWA Transportation Performance Management 8
FHWA Transportation Performance Management 9
FHWA Program Performance Management 10
Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve
Benefit-Cost Analysis An Investment/Economic Analysis Tool
TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management
March 25, 2013
Nathaniel D. Coley, MBA
Structural Engineer/Economist Office of Transportation Performance Management
Why Investment/Economic Analysis?
• System demands far outweigh available & expected resources
• Links accountability to decision making
• Proven process for evaluating alternatives
• MAP-21 Requirements “link investments to outcomes”
– Investment Plans
– Performance-Based Plans
– Financial Plans
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Bridge/Pavement Investments
Emissions Reductions
Congestion Reduction
Crash Modification
Factors
Other Areas
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Analyzing Transportation Decisions
• We typically evaluate objectives individually but
program projects as a package of objectives
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Analyzing Transportation Decisions
Overall Project Merit
• We need to evaluate investment decisions on a
project by project bases considering all factors
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Analyzing Transportation Decisions
Building a Program or Plan
Overall Project Merit
Overall Project Merit
Overall Project Merit
Overall Project Merit
Benefit – Cost Ratio
Safety ROI Life-Cycle Costs
Environmental ROI
7.3 $2.3m -234 crashes
Avoided
5.1mil $3.1m Or
NOx
2.1 $2.3m -234 crashes
Avoided
7.1mil $7m Or CO
.03 $2.3m -234 crashes
Avoided
15.1mil $1.9m Or
NOx
-2 $2.3m -234 crashes
Avoided
22.1mil $5.3m Or
NOx
For public agencies benefit‐cost analysis results describe ROI. Traditional benefit cost analysis and ROI analysis for transportation includes user benefits (time, cost, safety) for travelers and select environmental effects (air, quality, noise) along with capital, operations, and maintenance(O&M) costs.
Economic/Investment Analysis
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Economic/Investment Analysis
16 17 18 19 20
Initial Capital
Cost
Dollars
Benefits
Costs
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Year
Example Benefits
•Reduced Accident Costs
•Reductions in Delay Costs
•Reduced noise or emissions We monetize benefits & account for the changing value of a dollar over time
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
FHWA Program Performance Management 21
Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool
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Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool
FHWA Program Performance Management 24
Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool
• BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis
FHWA Program Performance Management 25
Economic/Investment Analysis: Tools • BCA.NET: web-based project-level benefit-cost
analysis tool
• Surface Transportation Efficiency Analysis Model: corridor-level benefit cost analysis tool for large transportation projects
• NBIAs: System level bridge needs assessment tool
• BLCCA2:Bridge Life- Cycle Cost Analysis
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Nathaniel D. Coley Jr.Federal Highway Adm.Washington, [email protected]
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/asstmgmt/economic.cfm
Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve
HSM and Related Analysis Tools
TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management
March 25, 2013
Esther Strawder Safety Specialist, FHWA- Office of Safety
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What is the HSM?
• The HSM is a tool for estimating safety performance of design and traffic control elements being evaluated in the project development process
• The HSM introduces a science-based approach that allows safety to be quantitatively evaluated alongside traffic operations, environmental impacts and construction costs
• Provides analytical tools and techniques for quantifying the potential effects on crashes as a result of decisions made in planning, design, operations, and maintenance
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HSM Related Analysis Tools
HSM Section Related Web links Tools
Part B: Roadway Safety Management Process
Safety Analyst www.safetyanalyst.org
Part C: Predictive Methods
IHSDM www.ihsdm.org
Part D: Crash Modification Factors (CMFs)
CMF
Clearinghouse
cmfclearinghouse.org
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How do the tools relate to HSM?
• Safety Analyst provides a set of
software tools used by state and local highway agencies for the highway safety management process documented in Part B of the HSM
• Safety Analyst can be used by highway agencies to improve their programming of site-specific highway safety improvements.
• The IHSDM Crash Prediction
Module (CPM) provides a faithful software implementation of the crash prediction methods documented in Part C of the HSM
• IHSDM is a suite of software analysis tools for evaluating safety and operational effects of geometric design decisions on highways
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CMF Clearinghouse
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Ray Krammes – Data & Analysis Team Leader
(202) 366-2175
Mshadoni Smith – HSM & Analysis Tools POC
(202) 366-7105
Esther Strawder – Integration & Planning POC
(202) 366-6836
Karen Scurry – CMF Clearing House
(609) 637-4207
Clayton Chen – IHSDM
(202) 493-3054
QUESTIONS
Tools for Staying Ahead of the Curve
MAP-21 Website
TPM Exchange Office of Transportation Performance Management
March 25, 2013
Michael Nesbitt Stakeholder Engagement Liaison
FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm
Do you want to learn more about collaborating on performance management with regional partners? Contact
Michael Nesbitt
202-366-1179
FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]
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www.fhwa.dot.gov/tpm
Do you have a Noteworthy Practice or Upcoming Event to share?
Contact Eric Ross Tashia J. Clemons
202-366-3975 202-366-1569
[email protected] [email protected]
FHWA Transportation Performance Management [email protected]