@tomrand - university of calgary in alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 plummeting cost of solar...

Tom Rand, Managing Partner, ArcTern Ventures @tomrand

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Tom Rand, Managing Partner, ArcTern Ventures

@tomrand

Collaboration & Opportunity

Shared Problem - IPCC

Lower internal emissions - COSIA

Price carbon - CCEMC

New low-carbon asset class

Page 3: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Collaboration & Opportunity

Page 4: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Page 5: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

This’ll be…

one killer hangover.

The fossil fuel party …

has been great!

Page 6: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

6oC

Page 7: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

6oC

Page 8: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

The (bad) math

limit warming to 2C

2600 (GT proven reserves)

560 (GT budget)

Leave 4/5 proven reserves in the ground

Page 9: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

The (good) math

changing energy markets

Price & Pace of adoption

Disruptive emergent systems

Investor pressure / carbon risk

Policy / Low-Carbon standards

Early leaders

Page 10: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Page 11: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

ProjectFinance Good BetterExploratoryCosts

(definerisk&resource)

CAPEX($/bpde) $75-100,000 $75,000

IRR 15-25% 30%

RiskProfile Med-High Low

Regulatory High Medium

Reserves Medium VeryLow

PriceSensitivity Medium Low

Technical Low Low

Carbon High Negative

FutureUpside None High

Traditional WoodlandBiofuels

$10-20million $10million

30% Low

Medium Very Low

Low Low

Negative

High

Page 12: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

@andrew_leach

Page 13: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Page 14: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Hydrostor + Wind beats Diesel

@ 13-23c/kwh fully dispatchable

Page 15: @tomrand - University of Calgary in Alberta · $15.00 $0. so $0.25 1980 Plummeting Cost of Solar Modules (Cost per Watt in 2012 Dollars) Coal / Natural Gas Cost Band 1984 1988 1992

Tom Rand, Managing Partner, MaRS Cleantech Fund

@tomrand

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