tomorrow’s skills: towards a national skills strategy kay hallahan dublin employment pact round...
TRANSCRIPT
Tomorrow’s Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy
Kay Hallahan
Dublin Employment Pact Round Table Discussion17th May 2007
The report contains:
• Ireland’s current skills performance
• Ireland’s projected skills profile in 2020 based on no additional education and training supply
• The projected skills needs of the economy out to 2020 from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective
• A vision for the skills profile which will drive competitive advantage
Contents
Current Situation
Mixed story to date• In general, firms appear happy with the skills available• High percentage of the labour force with 3rd level
qualifications but…• …high percentage with lower secondary education or
below• Low levels of adult literacy• Poor participation in continuing education & training• Skills shortages evident in some sectors• Largely being filled through high skilled migration
Labour Force Supply Projections: No Policy Change
11%5%
17%
14%
28%
29%
12%
15%
12%
10%
20%28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2020
Perc
enta
ge
No formal/ primary Lower secondary
Upper secondary Post leaving cert
Third level: Higher certificate / ordinary degree Third level: Honours bachelor degree or above
Employment by Education based on Forecast Demand
113
17
14
40
38
12
16
2029
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2020
Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary
Diploma, Certificate etc Degree level etc
Source: EGFSN, ESRI
Source: EGFSN, ESRI
2005
11%
13%6%
14%
13%
9%
6%6%
22%
Agriculture
Manufacturing Machinery,Equipment, ChemicalsOther Industry
Construction
Distribution
Transport & Communications
Finance & Business Services
Other Market Services
Public Admin., Education &Health
2020
24%
3%4%6%
12%
14%
6%18%
13%
Employment by Sector
Change in Absolute and Relative Employment by Occupation from 2005 to 2020
-37
70
107
74
35 35
79
44
-5
4
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Abso
lute
Chan
ge in E
mplo
yment
('000s)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Rela
tive
Chan
ge in E
mplo
yment
(%)
Change in Absolute Employment Relative Change in Employment
Source: EGFSN, ESRI
Increasing emphasis on Generic Skills
• Basic or fundamental skills such as literacy, using numbers, using technology
• People-related skills such as communication, interpersonal, team working, customer-service skills
• Conceptual skills such as collecting and organising information, problem-solving, planning and organising, learning-to-learn skills, innovation and creativity, systems thinking
• Needed not just for employability but also to function successfully as a citizen in a developed economy
Within Occupations
There is likely to be demand for an:• Increasing Breadth of Knowledge
• Increased Share of Knowledge Work / Reduced Share of Routine Work
• Rising Qualification and Technical Skill Requirements
• Importance of Continuing Learning
• Significance of Regulation
• Skills for Dealing with Others
• Management Level Skills• Sales and Marketing Skills• Language Skills• R&D
Enterprise Skills
1.45m
From the current labour force of 2m
650,000
New flow of young people from the education system
300,000
Increased participation & Migration
2.4m
Labour force
Labour force in 2020 will be made up of
Labour force
+
+
The answer is NO!
• Ireland will still lag behind similar countries in terms of percentage of the labour force with lower secondary education or below
• Supply will not meet demand for skills in 2020. There will be shortages at third and fourth level and an oversupply of lower level skills
• It is not desirable to have such a large number at or below lower secondary level
• Skills have the potential to shape the economy of the future and contribute to productivity and innovation
Will skills profile in 2020 be sufficient?
• The Expert Group proposes a vision of Ireland in 2020, possessing a well-educated and highly skilled population which contributes to a competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy.
• Specifically, the Expert Group proposes that, by 2020 • 48% of the labour force should have qualifications at NFQ
Levels 6 to 10;• 45% should have qualifications at levels 4 & 5; • the remaining 7% will have qualifications at levels 1 to 3 by
2020; and• within this objective, Ireland should aim to build capability at
fourth level and double its PhD output (Level 10) by 2013.
Vision
Vision
28%
7%
40%
45%
32%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ireland's currentskills profile 2005
Vision proposedby EGFSN for
2020
% l
abo
ur
forc
e
Third & Fourth Level(Levels 6-10)
UpperSecondary/FurtherEducation (Levels 4,5)
Lower Secondary orbelow (Levels 1-3)
Within the current workforce, an additional 500,000 people need to be upskilled through either education or training
Upskilling the workforce
Level 1/2 Level 3 Level 4/5 Level 6/7 Level 8/9/10
J unior Cert Leaving Cert Advanced Cert /
Ordinary Degree
Honours Degree or
Above
Level 1/2 70,000
Level 1/2 9,000
Level 3 250,000
Level 3 1,000
Level 4/5 140,000
Level 4/5 30,000
Level 6/7 4,000
• The retention rate to Leaving Certificate should reach 90% by 2020 (current rate 82%)
• The progression rate from second to third level should increase to 72% by 2020 (current rate 55%)
• In 2020, 94% of the population aged 20-24 should have a second level qualification (current rate 86%)
Within the formal education system:
Education
• Increase participation in the labour force through higher levels of education and training
• Immigrants need to be integrated into the education and training system at all levels
• English language supports need to be put in place
• The recognition of international qualifications is key to maximising the contribution of immigrant labour
Increased participation
• Education and training up to level 5 should be funded by Government for those currently without qualifications at this level.
• Education and training from level 6-10 should be funded in a tri-partite arrangement between employers, employees and Government.
• Broad estimates place the cost of the proposed additional upskilling to levels 3, 4 and 5 at €133 million per annum. The cost of upskilling at the higher levels 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 is estimated at €263 million per annum.
• Move towards funding of individuals and enterprise rather than providers.
Achieving the Objective
Tomorrow’s Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy is available online at:
www.skillsstrategy.ie
To request a hardcopy of the report: Phone (01) 6073116 or Email [email protected]