Tom’Tom’ss iconic iconic booksbooks

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets,Life and the Markets, Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,, Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We knowknow?? Philip Tetlock Philip Tetlock

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and SocietiesBetter Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies,, Scott PageScott Page

The Wisdom of CrowdsThe Wisdom of Crowds,, James SurowieckiJames Surowiecki

Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to DarwinDarwin,, Stephen Jay GouldStephen Jay Gould

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos TverskyDaniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky

A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and DeceivesDeceives,, Cordelia FineCordelia Fine

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets,Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the luckyskills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.”precise reason.”

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,, Nassim Nassim Nicholas TalebNicholas Taleb

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We knowExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We know?? Philip Philip Tetlock Tetlock “A fox, the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of disciplines, and is better able to “A fox, the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of disciplines, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events, is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, improvise in response to changing events, is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill defined problems.” toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill defined problems.”

The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and SocietiesFirms, Schools, and Societies,, Scott Page Scott Page “Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups of “Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups of people with diverse tools—consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one randompeople with diverse tools—consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one random(and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. ... Diversity (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. ... Diversity trumped ability.”trumped ability.”

The Wisdom of CrowdsThe Wisdom of Crowds,, James Surowiecki James Surowiecki

Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to DarwinFull House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin,, Stephen Stephen Jay GouldJay Gould

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,, Daniel Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos TverskyKahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky

A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and DeceivesA Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives,, Cordelia Cordelia FineFine “Your brain has some shifty habits that leave the truth distorted and disguised. Your brain is vainglorious. It’s emotional “Your brain has some shifty habits that leave the truth distorted and disguised. Your brain is vainglorious. It’s emotional and immoral. It deludes you. It is pigheaded, secretive, and weak willed. Oh, and it’s also a bigot.” and immoral. It deludes you. It is pigheaded, secretive, and weak willed. Oh, and it’s also a bigot.”

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets,Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb “This “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.” precise reason.”

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly ImprobableThe Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,, Nassim Nicholas TalebNassim Nicholas Taleb

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We knowExpert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We know?? Philip Tetlock Philip Tetlock “A fox, the thinker who “A fox, the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of disciplines, and is better knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of disciplines, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events, is more successful in predicting able to improvise in response to changing events, is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill defined problems.” tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill defined problems.” The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and SocietiesThe Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies,, Scott Page Scott Page

“Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups of people with diverse tools—“Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups of people with diverse tools—consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one random (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best groups, one random (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. ... Diversity trumped individual performers, the first group almost always did better. ... Diversity trumped ability.”ability.” The Wisdom of CrowdsThe Wisdom of Crowds,, James Surowiecki James Surowiecki

Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to DarwinFull House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin, , Stephen Jay GouldStephen Jay Gould

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, , Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos TverskyDaniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky

A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and DeceivesA Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives, , Cordelia Fine Cordelia Fine “Your brain has some shifty “Your brain has some shifty habits that leave the truth distorted and disguised. Your brain is vainglorious. It’s habits that leave the truth distorted and disguised. Your brain is vainglorious. It’s emotional and immoral. It deludes you. It is pigheaded, secretive, and weak willed. emotional and immoral. It deludes you. It is pigheaded, secretive, and weak willed. Oh, and it’s also a bigot.” Oh, and it’s also a bigot.”

An Economic Interpretation of the ConstitutionAn Economic Interpretation of the Constitution of the United States of the United States —Charles Beard (1913)

The Box: How the Shipping Container Made The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy the World Smaller and the World Economy

BiggerBigger —Marc Levinson

Tube: The Invention of TelevisionTube: The Invention of Television —David & Marshall Fisher

Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse,

and the Race to Electrify the Worldand the Race to Electrify the World —Jill Jonnes

The Soul of a New MachineThe Soul of a New Machine —Tracy Kidder

Rosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNARosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNA —Brenda Maddox

The Blitzkrieg MythThe Blitzkrieg Myth —John Mosier

“A man of great mediocrity.”A man of great mediocrity.” —General George —General George

Patton about General Omar BradleyPatton about General Omar Bradley ...... ...... “A third-rate “A third-rate general. He never did anything or won any general. He never did anything or won any

battle that any other general could not have battle that any other general could not have won as well or better.”won as well or better.” —General Omar Bradley —General Omar Bradley

about Sir Bernard Montgomeryabout Sir Bernard Montgomery ...... ...... “If you want to “If you want to end the war in any reasonable time, you will end the war in any reasonable time, you will

have to remove Ike’s hand from the control of have to remove Ike’s hand from the control of the land battle.”the land battle.” —Sir Bernard Montgomery about —Sir Bernard Montgomery about

General Dwight EisenhowerGeneral Dwight Eisenhower ...... ...... “One thing that “One thing that might help win this war is to get someone to might help win this war is to get someone to shoot King.”shoot King.” —General Dwight Eisenhower about —General Dwight Eisenhower about

Admiral Ernest KingAdmiral Ernest King ...... ...... “Eisenhower, though “Eisenhower, though supposed to be running the land war, is on the supposed to be running the land war, is on the

golf links at Rhiems—entirely detached and golf links at Rhiems—entirely detached and taking practically no part in running the war.”taking practically no part in running the war.” ——

Sir Alan BrookeSir Alan Brooke ...... ...... “If the unhelpful British “If the unhelpful British attitude continues, then I shall go home.”attitude continues, then I shall go home.” ——

General Dwight EisenhowerGeneral Dwight Eisenhower

Source: David Irving, The War Between the Generals: Inside the Allied High Command

““[Eisenhower][Eisenhower] chafed miserably as chafed miserably as General MacArthur’s aide in the General MacArthur’s aide in the Philippines, and in the end was Philippines, and in the end was

promoted to lieutenant colonel only promoted to lieutenant colonel only because General George C. because General George C.

Marshall remembered him, from Marshall remembered him, from years of inspecting dreary years of inspecting dreary

peacetime army bases, as peacetime army bases, as the best the best bridbridgge e pplalayyer in the U.S. Armer in the U.S. Army.”y.” ——

Ulysses S. GrantUlysses S. Grant, Michael Korda, Michael Korda

Fooled by Fooled by RandomnessRandomness: :

The Hidden Role The Hidden Role of Chance in Life of Chance in Life and the Marketsand the Markets

—Nassim Nicholas Taleb

““This book is about luck disguised and perceived as This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness

disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, definedmanifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined

as a person who benefited from a disproportionate as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, share of luck but attributed his success to some other,

generally precise reason.”generally precise reason.”

“We underestimate the share of randomness in just “We underestimate the share of randomness in just about everything, a point that might not merit a about everything, a point that might not merit a

book—except when it is the specialist who is the foolbook—except when it is the specialist who is the fool of all fools.” of all fools.”

“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”success is attributable to variance.”

Source: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets —Nassim Nicholas Taleb