tolun - (littoral 2010 education centre)
TRANSCRIPT
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Initialization of Systems Approachin the Izmit Bay:
Results of SSA17 (SPICOSA project)
Leyla TOLUNLeyla TOLUN
TBTAKTBTAK , Marmara Research Center,Environment Institute
[email protected]@mammam.gov.tr.gov.tr
LITTORAL 2010LITTORAL 20102222 SeptemberSeptember 2010,2010,
LondonLondon
SPICOSASPICOSA teamteam: Ahmet Baban, Asl: Ahmet Baban, Asl DnertaDnerta, olpan Polat, olpan Polat BekenBeken, Tlay, Tlayokacarokacar, Selda Murat, Sinan, Selda Murat, Sinan HsrevoluHsrevolu,, eylaeyla ErgenekonErgenekon
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Location of the Izmit Bay
ME D I T E R R A N E A N S E A
AEGEANS
EA
B L A C K S E A
WESTERN CENTRAL EASTERN
B L A C K S E A
AEGEAN
SEA
MA RMA R A S E A
stanbul
Kocaeli
Rivers Domestic inputs (ST ; TT) Industrial inputsWater
exchange
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Pollution history ofIzmit Bay
Until 1980s, industrial and domestic wastewaters were dischargeddirectly to the bay without any pre-treatment
After 1980s most of the majorindustrial plants have primarily treatedtheirwastewaters.
ithin the last 10 years, 80% of organic matterhas been removed from
industrial wastewater. However organic loads from the domesticwastewaters have doubled because of the growth in surroundingpopulation.
In 1999 a powerful earthquake along the North Anatolian Fault, struckthe eastern part of the Marmara region including Izmit Bay. Theearthquake destroyed many coastal cities. Ecosystem of the Bay wasalso affected by the quake and subsequent refinery fire
Since 1985 periodic red tides have been observed Transparency of water column decreased and coastal area lost its
attraction for the inhabitants
Musilage events have been observed in the recent years The Bay was stated as a Hot Spot and Sensitive Area for
Eutrophication
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State of Eastern Glck Coast Line (Before Earthquake)
Before Earthquake
After Earthquake
Change Areas
Coast Line in 1976 (GCM)
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Decline of water transparency in the Izmit Bay since 1970.
Measurement of transperancy(SDD)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 9 70 1 97 5 1 9 84 1 9 94 2 00 8 2 00 9
Year (August values)
secchi
depth(m)
East
Central
West
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Initilaization of the Systems approach underSPICOSA project (2007-2010)
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POLICYISSUES
ECOLOGICAL, SOCIAL, ECONOMICAPPRAISALS
CZ SYSTEM FORMULATION
CZ SYSTEM DESIGN
POLICY CONSTRAINTSand GOVERNANCE
PUBLIC andEND-USERS
SYSTEM OUTPUTand DELIBERATIONS
Operational Sequence for the Systems Approach Framework
Ref: SPICOSA DOW
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The main drivers and related pressures on the system are :1-Urbanization oxygen deficiency in bottom waters; eutrophication
2-Industrialization toxicity; harmful substance accumulation in biota and sediments
3-Marine transportation harmful substance accumulation in biota and sediments
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HumanActivity
(Driver)
Forcing
(Pressure)
SystemState (S)
Response(R) Impact(I)
Urbanization-Population
growth
Domesticwaste water,
*nutrient conc.increase
*org. matterincrease
*phytoplanktonincrease
*oxygen leveldecrease
*sedimentaccumulation
(Eutrophication)
*fish kills*harmful algal blooms
(bio diversity loss)
*ecosystem health loss
*less beneficial use
*turbidity increase(transparency decrease)
Industrialization Industrialwastewater
*haz. subs.Increase
*org. matterincrease
Bio- accumulation
Sedimentcontamination
Toxicity
Biodiversity loss
Ecosystem health loss
Less beneficial use ofhuman
Human health loss
Atmospheric
deposition
*haz. subs.increase
Bio- accumulation
Sedimentcontamination
Biodiversity loss
Ecosystem health loss
Less beneficial use ofhuman
Human health loss
Marinetransportation
*contamin.
*balast water
*PAH conc.ncrease
Bio- accumulation
Sedimentcontamination
*invasive sp. ?
Biodiversity loss
Ecosystem health loss
Less beneficial use ofhuman
Human health loss
System State (DPSIR - SPICOSA loop)
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Determination of the priority issueDetermination of the priority issue//ss
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Participated Organization
Public / Central
Government
15%
Public / District
Goverment
14%
Public / Local
Government
14%
Public / Union
7%
Private Sector
14%
NGO
14%
R&D and
Universities
22%
Policy issue:Improvement ofWater Quality
Meeting with users and potential users of the Bay
Improvement of water transperancy
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Cause and Effect Reltionship
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Investment inSource control
Domestic
andRiverinputs
POM DO
Nitrogen
Phytoplankton Transperancy
Public Perception
+
+
+
+
--
+
Real Estate-
Feed back loop of the Izmit Bay subsystem
zooplankton+
-
+
+
mixing
Solar irradiance
+
+
resuspension
+
+
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Conceptual model (ecosystem)
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Model components
Natural Component-Circulation dynamics
*Salt Budget
*Freshwater balance(Evaportaion, Rain, Runoff, River)-Nitrogen proceses-Oxygen proceses
-Phytoplankton-zooplankton-POM-SDD
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Model components
Economic Component
-Cost Benefit Analysis
*Financial*Economic
Social Component-Public perception
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Model components
LOADS-Domestic loads
-Industrial Loads-Runoff Loads
SCENARIOS-Scenario 1-Scenario 2
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MODEL Information anddata flow
Salinity, temperature, nutrient, DO,Chlorophyl,meteorological conditions(wind,precipitation, humidity,temp.)
State MeteorologyInstitute 48 hr.
observation
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Externalforces
Circulationexchange
Salt budget Interfacediffusiveexchange
Nitrogenbudget
Oxygenbudget Regeneration
lightPhytoplankton
growth
(2 sp.)
Zooplankton
growth
ParticulateOrganic
Matter
Turbidity
(SDD)
Econ.comp.
Fresh waterbalance
Socialcomp.
Izmit Bay Model Components
scenariosLOADS(River, Runoff, Domestic, Industrial, Other)
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User interface of the Extend model
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getC
RS
t
Eq
F
C tfl
F
Q_
t
Qi
F esh Water Inputs & Outputs
FWC_
Q ut
AsurQpr
Ev po
ion from B
Rin on B
E
p
i ! "
li k#
kiss"
i c ls$
% d w! "
whil#
i
w &
s$
% %p!
Qri 'Runoff
Riv(
r
Runoff
Eqn
Urban Runoff
Eqn
Ri) si 0 ul 1 m3/d
Runoff
M ar_FWinM ar_FWout
Mar_FWout
FWC
Ssur
Sref
Sewage Di2
charge Industrial Discharge
Fresh Wate r
Balance
Qohr
Ri 3 _4
f
Asur
Pr
Mar_FWin
FWQi n
Qfor
FWQ_i nFWQtot
Qin_5
WSurb_6 ld
A 7 s_urb Qswr
Pr
Forest Runoff OtherRunoff
Tw
Wspd
RH
Qind
Pr
Aws_for
WSfor_6 ld
Qev
S in_MSSref
WWTi n
Arch_riv
WSriv_6ld
Pr
Qout_5
365
INDin
365
Runoff
Qurb
Ta
Pr
Aws_agr
WSagr_8 ld
Qagr
FWfrac
Pr
Agriculture Runoff
Aws_for
WSohr_9 ld
Qev
Ev Qpr
Qriv
Qurb
Qagr
Qfor
Qohr
Qswr
Qind
0 107.@
21@ A
22.@
4A
020
21.2@
22.@
2A
.7@
2@
2B
.2@
27.@
28.7@
A0
TiC
e
Va luePlo tte r I/
D
0
0.12@
0.2@
0.A
7@
0.@
0.B
2@
0.7@
0.87@
1
Y2
Ss ur Ss ur _obs Y2 De lS Y2 Dif f eren E e
0 107.F
21F G
22.F
4G
00
F
000000
1.00000e+07
1.F
0000e+07
2.00000e+07
TiH
e
ValuePlotter I/
I
Mar_PWin Mar _
PWou
Q
Green
FWQQ
oQ
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45 %
10 %
21%
16%
8%
river
ru noff
dom estic
other
i ndustry
Nitrogen LOADS(River, Runoff, Domestic, Industrial, Other)
R
5R R R
S R R R R
S5
R R R
T R R R R
T5
R R R
U R R R R
V
W
V
X
4
W
6
W
X
8
Y
V
4
V
W
4
V
45
V
65
V
86
W
`
6W
W
a
W
4
a
W
68
W
88
Y
`
b
Y
W
b
Y
5
`
river
runoff
domestic
other
industrc
Runoff: agriculture, forest, urbanand other
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1- Present Situation:
Running the model with the application of present conditions for the bay as a base,Existing Loads:Merkez, Korfez and Derince cities: Advanced wastewater TreatmentGolcuk and Karamursel cities: Biological wastewater treatment (no nutrientremoval)
ndustrial Loads: Fertilizer Industry
Surface runoffs form the surrounding area
2- Scenario 1:
Running the model with the application of upgrading two WWTPs;(adition of nutrient removal facilities to the existing WWTPs such as Golcuk andKarmursel cities)
3- Scenario 2:Running the model with the reduced runoff loads;In Stream (Riverine) Treatment in the selected point sources will be applied since some of therivers such as Dilderesi and Eastern Channel(Sar River) dischrging to the Bay has high nutrientand TSS loads.
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DOMESTIC WASTE WATER TREATMENT PLANS
inplanning
Organized Industrial Park Area
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0.00E+00
2.00E-05
4.00E-05
6.00E-05
8.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.20E-04
1
20.5
40
59.5
79
98.5
118
138
157
177
196
216
235
255
274
294
313
333
352
current
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Nitrogen conc. changes in the upper layer (model simulation results)
DIN Kg/m3
Model Ecosystem Results
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Socio-economic results
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Reduction of the water uality negatively effects peopleliving in the coastal area.
Contingent Valuation method was applied using auestionnaire where peoples perception of water
pollution is being measured. The uestionnaire aimed to
evaluate, how the water pollution has changed peopleshabits and how it will change with pollution abatement.Also, people are directly asked to state their willingnessto pay for clean water which is the price people areready to pay for this good.
Other purposes are to understand:1- Peoples present and future usage habitat of the Bay2- Their relationship with the Bay3- Peoples satisfaction with the water uality3- Their willingness to pay for better water uality(Contingent Valuation)
Social component
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Usage habitat
Opinion about water uality
Fre uency of use
Infuence of the Bay inthe regionFre uency of use after
WQ increase
Results
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0 30,d
e 66f
60,g
3333 9 e ,h i
e
h
e ,666f
e 5h
,0833 e 82,i
212,916f
243,3333 273,75 304,1667 334,5833 365300000
312500
325000
337500
350000
362500
375000
387500
400000
412500
425000
437500
450000
462500
475000
487500
500000
512500
525000
537500
550000
562500
575000
587500
600000
Tip e
q
aluePl
r
tter I/O
present_public_ s fter_int estp en s fter_ip pru t edv
w
s tp
Public percepti n ch nges (scenari 1)
SDD tresh ld5m ccepted
present_public_perceptixn
after_iny estment_public_perceptix n
after_imprx y ed
Q_people_ready_tx_pay
M del S ci l Results
Acc r ding t the sur ey results 55% of the respondants w nt to pay for betterw ter uality.
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Cost Benefit Analysis of Upgrading theWWTPs in the Izmit Bay (scenario1)
Model Economic Results
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Cost Benefit Analysis1) Financal CBA whether it is financially feasible for
municipalities to upgrade their WTTP to advancedtreatment?
2) Economic CBA whether the benefits of upgrading is
more than costs from a macro economic point of view
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Financial CBACost of treating one cubic meter of wastewatercompared to the fee that the people would be willing topay as wastewater charge
Investment Cost : 2 Euro / capita
Unit Investment Cost : 0.019 Euro / m3
Operation Cost : 0.02 Euro / capita / dayUnit Operation Cost : 0.12 euro / m3
Total Unit Cost : 0.139 Euro / m3
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Financial CBA
WTP(Willingness To Pay) for improved water uality wasmeasured with the help of a uestionnnaire
% is ready to pay
On the average, people are willing to pay 1 , Euro /cap /annum. That converts to 0.2 Euro / m3.
Benefit /Cost : 0.2 /0.139 = 1.
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Economic CBA
Water uality (SDD) in the Izmit Bay has an impacton Real Estate Value.
The Hedonic Pricing Method has been used to
measure the impact of SDD on property valuesince environmental services affect market prices.
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HEDONIC PRICING
Data were collected on residential property sales prices inthe region (17 data) including;
*sales prices*property characteristics that affect selling prices,such as apartment age, size, number of rooms, andnumber of bathrooms at certain districts*SDD in the area close to the district
The data were analyzed using regression analysis, whichrelates the price of the property to its characteristics and theenvironmental characteristic of interest.Price was defined as a function of SDD
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Topics of the stakeholder meeting (output step)
General description of theIzmit Bay coastal system
Need for the SAF application
in the Izmit Bay The Policy Issue and systemdescription
Model development underSAF application
Description of the scenarios
ESE results of the scenarios
Stakeholder views about thescenarios (future needs)
August 2010 - Kocaeli
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Comparison of the different scenario optionsInvestment
cost
(1000 )
Operational
cost
(/m3)
Reimbrustm
ent period,
(years)
B/C
(econ.)
Area
req.,
(m2)
N loads
rem. pot.,
ton/y
(Effective
ness)
Applicabilit
y,
(difficulties,
strong and
weakness ,
tech. req.)
S.holder
opinions,
Suitability
with the
Plans and
prog., etc.
Scenario1,
Upgrad
f
G
lcukandKaramurs
l
TP, N,P,
TSSr mo
al
and filtration
~4.400 0.24 ~9 y ars >1 ~1500 From
241to 47
tons/y
*hight chnoloji
r
quir
m nt
* ducat dand
qualifi d
personel
requirement for
operation
Very suitable
withthe
present plans
Scenario2,
Reduction ofN
and TSSloads
from nonpoint
sources
~20.000. 0.000007 ~9 years >1 ~
3.3 0.000 %70remo
al
*low technology
Req.
*easy to
operate
Notsuitable
with the
present plans
Alternatii
e
scenarios,
Reduction ofN
and TSSloads
from solid
wastes (wilde
storage)and
industrial
discharge
control???
Landfill appl.
For the solid
waste
deposition
areas near
ri
ers
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Another meeting with stakeholders to give informationabout the final situation of the model and scenarios
Dissemination of this experience (web site of Izmit Bay and participating to conferances.)
Support in preparation of the Local, Regional and NationalICZM strategy and plans
Plans for future
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Vigilando, agendo, bene consulendo,
prospera omnia cedunt
By watching, by doing, by consultingwell, these things yield all things
prosperous. (Sallust)