Tokyo, Japan11-14 March 2014

Discussed By:May Khin Chaw, Kyaw Lwin Oo

Department of Meteorology and Hydrology

(37) stations are routinely disseminated every(3) hrly to Global Weather Observing System.(13) More new SYNOP station will transmit on1 April 2014.

Manpower: Out of DMH’s total (1425), we areWorking with (780) Staffs. 55%

64

39

17

o Automatic Weather Station 8

The system was fully operational after Japan’sJICA project on development of Storm forecasting

2010-2012. We are a NC with Tokyo GISC under WIS.

MTSAT (IR) Satellite Image Animation: Cyclone GIRI

“With Cyclone Giri, we have

seen how forecasts and early warning contribute to saving lives.”

“It is crucial that we continue to

strengthen national capacity

and link it to global and

regional systems.”

UN OCHA Remarked DMH

About GIRI Cyclone

• 2006 Apr Cyclone Mala

• 2008 May Cyclone Nargis

• 2010 Oct Cyclone GIRI

• 2011 Oct Tropical Depression

Current Capacity- Community Awareness …

We provide routinely (10) City Specific Forecast to Local FM Radio stations.

If Emergency color, update every (4) to (6) Hours to these Stations.

Some FM Station broadcast Weather News with Local Ethnic Language.

• Higher Authorities take care EW well.• Local Authority and People are high

Awareness for Hazards after 2008.• Supportive Role of INGOs and MNGOs.

Role of StateMedia is Very Important.

Real time updatedInformation on Web for users.

FM Bagan

(3) Radars and (30)AWOS will be installed In Myanmar with

Japan’s Grant Aid Program.

DMH set up WRF ModelSince 2012 Nov . Now

Updated in our websiteFor our users.

Parameter Time (UTC) Methods Other

sources

Likelihood of

development of TC

00,12,

Conventional methods ofSynoptic Maps, Upper AirCharts, Pressure Tendency,MTSAT images, SATAIDsoftware are using to analyzeTropical Cyclone.

DeterministicNWP modelsof majorcenters (e.g.ECM WF,NCEP, JMAGSM, SWFDP,UK,JTWC,IMD,CIMSS,RIMES.

Dvorak Intensity (CI, T, DT, PT, MET number)

(3)Hourly

Cyclone Intensity based onDvorak method from RSMC,CIMSS and JTWC are used.

Parameter Time (UTC) Methods Other

sourcesCenter

Position, Accuracy of

center position,

Direction & speed of

movement

(3)Hourly

Center positions are estimated by usingMTSAT satellite images. InformationRSMC, CIMSS and JTWC are mainsources to issue News and Warning.

Central pressure, Maximum sustained

wind speed, maximum gust wind

speed,

(3)Hourly

CP and MSW estimated by using Dvorakmethod and products from RSMC,CIMSS and JTWC are main sources toissue News and Warning.

Parameter

Issu-ance Time (UTC)

Lead time

(hours)Methods

Track 23:3006:3011:30

(24) hour

Track forecasts are mainly based onproducts from RSMC, CIMSS and JTWC aremain sources to issue News and Warning.Hourly weather observations, especiallysurface wind and pressure tendency, fromcoastal stations are used as lowestpressure fall and wind direction.

Central pressure, Maximum

sustained wind,

23:3006:3011:30

(24) hourTrack forecasts are mainly based onproducts from RSMC, CIMSS and JTWC aremain sources to issue News and Warning.

Model Domain(square degree)

Resolution(horizontal & vertical)

Initial Time(UTC)

Forecast Range (hours)

Run by(own/foreign centers)

WRF Model

80°E-101°E6°N-29°N

(30)Km 00 24H,48H,72H Own

JMA Storm surge Model

80°E-101°E6°N-29°N

(30)Km open 24H,48H,72H Own

Diana ModelMet.no

StationTime series

(16)Km 00 72H Met.no

ModelDomain

and resolution

Forecast Range (hours)

Frequency

Considered factors

(Tide/ensemble/ inundation, etc.)

Myanmar Area

15.0N-22.0N90.0E-100.0E

30 kmUp to 48

hours

4 times/day(6 hourly)

Tides: not consider

Inundation: not predicted

Warnings/Advisories and corresponding

emergency responses

DMH issues warnings for disasters/phenomena associated with TCs, such as heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge.

Potential Disaster Risks Landslide, flash flood advise

Target(warning areas)

Expected path of cyclone landfall and inland areas.

Meteorological variables/indices used for criteria/thresholds

for warnings/advisories

Pressure, wind, rainfall, cloud direction from hourly weather observations from coastal stations

Criteria/Thresholds NilContents of

Warning/Advisory Message

Intensity, location, movement, estimated max wind, wind, rainfall, wave, advisory for fisherman and vessels.

Sample Warning/Advisory

Message

• Monsoon Onset and Withdrawal forecast were nearly close to observedMonsoon conditions. 2013 Monsoon accompanied by Cyclone Mahasen.

• Myanmar received above normal Monsoon Season Rainfall.

• Disappearance of Monsoon Break condition triggered heavy rainfalls andrelated secondary hazards during JJAS 2013.

• The cyclone “Mahasen”, which formed over BOB, threatened MyanmarCoasts but effective early warning system with comprehensive andtimely cooperation. 2013 SW Monsoon set in after Cyclone Mahasen.

• Post Monsoon Cyclone ‘Phailin’ ,‘Helen’ and ‘Lehar’ moving towardsIndia Coasts.

• Remnants of Depression from South China Sea were very frequent.

• LP System over BOB and passage of Typhoon remnants from South ChinaSea also lead to late and post monsoon heavy rainfall.

2013 Weather Summary

Recent Activities • Reporting CLIMAT messages to JMA, RA II Focal

starting from Feb 2013.• 10th and 11th Monsoon Forum were organized 3

May and 13 November 2013.• Relocation of GTS/MSS with the support of

WMO.• Provide PWS , public awareness, education and

training program.• Participate regional and international activities

on DRR, CC, PWS, SWFDP, etc.• Initiated Forecast verification and Climate data

application with RClimdex.

Activities with respect to TC Forecasting

• Meteorological Division of Myanmar Department ofMeteorology and Hydrology set up Forecasting groups at NayPyi Taw, Yangon and Yangon International Airport for thePublic Weather Services, aviation weather services.

• All the center produce daily weather forecast, severe weatherforecast and warning including cyclone warning and news.Meteorological Division is lead by Director (Meteorology) withForecasters, Assistant Forecasters, Observers and TVPresenters.

• Recently DMH set up new organization including Radar,Marine Meteorology and Public Relation Section.

Activities with respect to TC Forecasting

• Cyclone news and warning are issued based on different typesatellite images, NWP products, cyclone warning from RSMCand other regional and international institutes, such asCIMSS’s ADT,ODT, JTWC, ECMWF, NOAA, UKMO, JMA, IMDand RIMES.

• Color-coded cyclone warning scheme initiated in 2009Cyclone Bijli. It was very effective during the 2010 CycloneGIRI.

• Other conventional method like Synoptic Charts and UpperWind Charts are also utilized for issuance of cyclone news.RSMC’s Cyclone bulletin, news and warning are received fromGTS and email.

• WMO’s SWFDP products and DMH’s WRF (9)Km/(30)Kmproducts are also utilized.

Activities with respect to TC Forecasting

• Ensemble TC probabilistic forecast from ECMWF, UKMO,Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) from RSMC, New Delhi,products of SWFDP, TC Formation Alert from JTWC wereutilized.

• Systematic Dvorak Analysis is still need to enhance expertiseof Cyclone Forecasters.

• Various GFS and WRF NWP outputs from many centers werealso used.

• Hourly Surface observations from Coastal areas were veryuseful tools to check cyclone’s approaching, intensity andsend these messages to RSMC CWD via email.

• We prepared phone/fax contact lists of RSMC and neighboringNMHS to contact and share information during emergencytime.

Key Capacity Needs….

• Set up advanced observations instruments/ tools/system.

• Enhance technical capabilities of DMH Staffs/Forecasters/Observers/ICT Engineers.

• Upgrade observations networks for weather, water andclimate activities.

• Improve knowledge on advanced weather, climate, climatechange, radar,NWP.

• Develop international and regional cooperation for sharingtechnical expertises.

Needs and Challenges ….• Observing and monitoring system• Data Processing and Management• Forecasting & Prediction• Warning Generation• Dissemination

Ongoing Project Activities1. The project for establishment of disastrous weather monitoring

system JICA.(3 Radars/30 AWOS/Training )

2. ESCAP-RIMES Project on Strengthening of Myanmar Multi hazardsEarly Warning System June 2013- Nov 2014 with RIMES.(supportcapacity & capability )

3. Strengthening Capacity Development Program with NorwegianMeteorological Institute and ADPC.(Climate Data Application/Rclimdex/ Diana Model/WRF Model Training/PRECIS Model training/JMA Storm surge Model Training)

4. The Project for end-to-end Early Warning System with JICA, Relief andResettlement Department. 2013-2015 (Tidal gauge, effectiveCommunication between TV Broadcasting station and DMH.)

“ We, Myanmar DMH, would like to acknowledge WMO, RA II’s NMHS, JMA,RSMC(New Delhi, Tokyo), Norwegian Met.no, ESCAP, ADPC,RIMES for sharingproducts, outputs, technical transfer to strengthen our capacities andcapabilities. We also Thanks to SWFDP Centers, CIMSS, JTWC and many otherinternational centers for their real time and near real time products andinformation . ”