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24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet search: imaging, radial velocity, and transit. The engines for detecting more exoplanets. Some properties of exoplanets. Fraction of stars with planets: the Drake equation’s f p . Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets T. Pyle, SSC/JPL/Caltech/NASA .

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Page 1: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1

Three methods of the exoplanet search: imaging, radial velocity, and transit.

The engines for detecting more exoplanets.

Some properties of exoplanets.

Fraction of stars with planets: the Drake equation’s fp.

Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets

T. Pyle, SSC/JPL/Caltech/NASA.

Page 2: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

The innermost gap in HL Tau’s disk lies r = 13.2 AU from the star, which has luminosity L = 6.6L

. What is the temperature of dust grains there, if they have albedo A = 0.7?

22 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 2

Rank Responses1 91.12 91.093 914 173.6315 2766 Other

Values: 91, {91, 89}Value Matches: 13

91.191.0

9 91

173.63

1 276Oth

er

25%

20%

30%

5%5%

15%

T = 91 K. A little less than the temperature of Saturn.

Page 3: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanets: the newest frontier of astronomy

You think of yourself as young, but many you are older than the observational study of extrasolar planets.

It started only in 1995, with the discovery that the star 51 Pegasi has a companion (51 Peg b) with mass about half of Jupiter’s, and orbital period 4.2 days (Mayor & Queloz 1995, Marcy & Butler 1995).

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 3

Geoff Marcy and Paul Butler Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz

Page 4: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanets: the newest frontier of astronomy (continued)

And the enterprise was already going very well when the NASA Kepler satellite was launched (2009), adding more than a thousand new planets and thousands of additional candidates.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 4

Kepler before launch (Ball Aerospace/NASA)

Bill Borucki, leader of the Kepler team

Page 5: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanets: the hottest frontier of astronomy

Today there are 1958 confirmed extrasolar planets, and thousands of other good candidates.

Their diversity is also still growing. There are several types not found in the Solar system, including

• Hot Jupiters

• Super-Earths

• Tatooines

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 5

Exponential progress: Moore’s law compared to exoplanet discovery. (Data from Intel, AMD, IBM, Zilog, Motorola, Sun Microsystems, Kepler and exoplanet.eu.)

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

1.E+07

1.E+08

1.E+09

1.E+10

1.E+11

1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Year

Number of transistors in new microprocessors doubles every 23.7 months

Number of extrasolar planets doubles every 27.5 months

Page 6: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Observing exoplanets

Stars are vastly brighter and more massive than planets, and most stars are far enough away that the planets are lost in the glare. So astronomers have had to be more clever, and employ the motion of the orbiting planet. They mostly use:

Imaging: take pictures over a period of time, watch the planet orbit the star.

Radial velocity (RV): measure tiny, periodic wobble in star’s motion along the line of sight by Doppler shift.

Transits: periodic eclipsing of star by planet, or vice versa.

Of today’s exoplanets, 62% have been detected by transits, 31% by RV, and 3% by imaging. The remaining 4% were identified by a variety of lesser-used means.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 6

Page 7: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Taking images of exoplanets

This is a lot harder than it sounds. Observe:

Seen from a great distance, the Sun would appear to be two billion times brighter than Jupiter.

Seen from a distance of 100 light years, Jupiter and the Sun would be separated by an angle no more than 0.17 arcseconds (4.5×10-5

degrees). Compare to blur:

• 0.07 arcseconds on Hubble Space Telescope;

• 0.04 arcseconds on Keck 10 m telescopes with adaptive-optical (AO) atmospheric-blur correction;

• >0.5 arcseconds on telescopes on Earth without AO.

The blur would have to be <<<<< 0.17 arcsec to see the faint planet so close to the bright star.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 7

Page 8: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Asteroid belts according to Chen et al. 2006.

Taking images of exoplanets (continued)

Nevertheless, technical progress in high-contrast AO imaging has recently enabled the imaging of a few exoplanet systems. Good examples:

The nearby star HR 8799, 129 lyaway, has at least four giant planets in orbit, in the gap between two asteroid belts.

All 5-10 times Jupiter’s size.

Apart from size, a striking resemblance to our four giant planets lying between two asteroid belts.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 8

Infrared image of the HR8799 system (Marois et al. 2010)

Page 9: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Taking images of exoplanets (continued)

The transitional disk around LkCa 15 – discussed last lecture – has become the first known to have a Jupiter-like giant planet orbiting in the disks’s gap. (The blue blob is the planet.)

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 9

Kraus & Ireland 2011Andrews et al. 2011 Kraus & Ireland 2011

Page 10: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Taking images of exoplanets (continued)

Upsides of exoplanet detection by direct imaging:

From the track of the planet over an orbital period, one gets accurate measurements of planet mass, plus radius and shape of orbit.

In principle would permit the spectrum of planet to be measured separate from star, and thus its atmosphere to be studied unambiguously.

Downsides:

Not very many planetary systems (maybe 80?) will be “imageable” by existing telescopes (£ 10 m diameter).

Larger telescopes (30 m diameter), currently in the planning stages, will cost at least $1G apiece.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 10

Page 11: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Radial velocity (RV) detection of planets

Also not easy, but easier than imaging.

Stars and their planets are both in orbit, around their common center of mass.

The orbital radius and velocity of each object is larger, the smaller its mass. Thus the star moves slowly in a tiny orbit.

• Consider Jupiter and the Sun, which orbit each other with an 11.9-year period:

Know star’s mass and orbital V ⇔ know planet’s mass and V.

The best planet-search instruments can measure stellar velocities as small as

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 11

1

1Jupiter's circular orbit: 5.2 AU, 13 km sec ;

Sun's circular orbit: 0.0049 AU, 0.012 km sec .

r V

r V

= =

= =

-1 10.0002 km sec 20 cm sec .−=

Page 12: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

RV detection of planets (continued) RV detectors work by measuring the Doppler velocity of the star. (See

Astronomy 102, lecture 14.)

• Similar to the way the police radar measures the speed of your car, but no radar gun is needed, as …

• … spectral lines in the star provide the signal.

• Spectral lines are shifted in wavelength: the fraction of the wavelength by which a line shifts is the same as the fraction of the speed of light represented by the star’s Doppler velocity.

• If the Doppler velocity varies up and down periodically, then the maximum gives the orbital velocity, and time between maxima is the orbital period.

Click to view a demonstration

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 12

Page 13: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

RV detection of planets (continued)

Upsides of exoplanet detection from Doppler velocity:

From Doppler velocity observed over an orbital period, get planet mass, plus shape and radius of orbit.

No need for high image contrast or resolved images.

Can detect many thousands with existing instruments and telescopes.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 13

RV measurements on µ Arae, over some eight years, showing the presence of four planets. (Pepe et al. 2007)

Page 14: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

RV detection of planets (continued)

Downsides:

Since it doesn’t involve detecting light from the planet, one can’t learn about the planet’s surface, atmosphere, density, etc. from RV.

One doesn’t know the orbit inclination a priori, so the “mass” that one measures is mass times sin i, where i is the angle between the line of sight and the rotation axis.

• This makes less difference than you might think:

the average value of sin i for a large population of randomly-oriented exoplanet orbits is 0.785.

the probability that sin i £ 0.1 is only 0.5%.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 14

Page 15: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Natural planetary-mass units

What Solar masses (M

) Jupiter masses (MJ)

Earth masses (MÅ)

Sun 1 1048 332900Typical disk 0.1 105 33290Jupiter 0.00095 1 318Earth 0.000003 0.0031 1

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 15

33

30

27

1 1.989 10 gm

1 1.899 10 gm

1 5.974 10 gm

J

M

M

M⊕

= ×

= ×

= ×

Page 16: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

mid-lecture Break.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 16

Homework #2 is due Wednesday, 7:00 PM.

Exam #1 is next Thursday, on WeBWorK, in any 75-minute window between 11 AM and 7 PM.

• Review session Wednesday, 7PM.

• Practice exam available on WeBWorK at 7PM tonight.

Page 17: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Transit detection of exoplanets

This involves detecting the decrease in total brightness when planet passes in front of star (transit) or vice versa (eclipse), and is also not easy. Observe:

Seen from a great distance, the Sun is about 9.8 times the diameter of Jupiter, so Jupiter would block only 1.1% of the Sun’s visible light if it were to transit the Sun.

Even if Jupiter were T = 1000 K at the cloudtops, the total infrared-light brightness of the Sun-Jupiter pair would decrease by only 0.1% if the Sun were to eclipse Jupiter.

• And Jupiter is only T = 112 K at the cloudtops.

The orbit must be viewed close to edge on to see a transit. Less than 2% of a randomly-oriented population is oriented this close to edge-on.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 17

Page 18: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 18

Transit detection of exoplanets (continued)

From a transit we get a piece of information not found in the other methods: the size of the planet. The duration of the transit

enables a measurement of the diameter of the star and/or the precise orbit inclination.

The depth of the flux “dip,” and time it takes the it to turn off or on, offer a measurement of the diameter of the planet.

Dee

gan

d G

arri

do20

00

Time

Brig

htne

ss

ta tb tc td

Page 19: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 19

Transit detection of exoplanets (continued)

At mid-infrared wavelengths, the difference between transit, eclipse and points in between enables one to isolate flux from a hot planet, and even to “map” the emission from the planet’s surface.

Example: HD 189733b is brightest near, but not exactly at, eclipse.

That’s the planet’s blackbody emission, at mid-infrared wavelengths.

HD 189733 at λ = 8μm; Knutson et al. 2007.

Eclipse

Transit

Flux of star alone

Page 20: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 20

Transit detection of exoplanets(continued)

Thus the temperature over the planet’s surface can be worked out from the planet brightness through the orbit. Example: in HD

189733b, the warmest spot is offset from “noon”, in the direction of the planet’s rotation.

Animations by Tim Pyle (SSC)T = 1212 K T =

973 K

Page 21: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Transit detection of exoplanets (continued)

Upsides of exoplanet detection by transit:

Gives radius of planet and star, which are very hard to get otherwise.

• In fact, Kepler measurements of stellar radii is having a profound effect on the physics of stars, as they tend to be very slightly larger than expected.

While not easy, is at least easier than the other two methods, and can be carried out with small telescopes.

Downsides:

Only a small fraction of exoplanets transit: the ones viewed close to edge-on.

• We don’t think there’s anything systematically different about these, compared to the others.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 21

Page 22: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

0

5

10

15

20

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Rad

ius

( R⊕

)

Mass (M⊕)

H2/He planet at:

0.02 AU

water

rock

iron

Bulk density (gm cm-3): 0.11

10

Planetmadeof:

10 AU

Note that if an exoplanet has RV and transit observations, then we know its mass (not just Msin i) and its radius.

And therefore we also know its bulk density: mass divided by volume.

Its bulk density can be used to tell rocky planets like Earth from gas-giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn.

Based on a figure by Jonathan Fortney, updated with today’s transiting-exoplanet data. Solar-system planets plotted as blue dots.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 22

super-Earths

The engines of exoplanet discovery: measuring exoplanet masses and sizes

Page 23: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

The engines of exoplanet discovery (continued)

Thus the common way to proceed is to seek both RV and transits, as follows.

First do transits, which is what Kepler and was designed to do. Unfortunately it ceased to be able to do so in 2013, after four years of operation

Kepler will be succeeded in its transit work by the NASA Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) due to launch in August 2017.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 23

TESS as it is currently being built (MIT/GSFC/NASA)

Page 24: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

The engines of exoplanet discovery (continued)

But there are several ground-based networks of small telescopes also searching other parts of the Sun’s neighborhood, and other types of stars: WASP, Mearth,…

Since transit detections rates are so large, practitioners of RV have their hands full simply following up the transit results, using instruments like HARPS on the La Silla 3.6m and HIRES on the Keck 10m.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 24

View of the inside of HARPS during installation on the La Silla 3.6-m telescope.

Page 25: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 25

Today’s exoplanets

Today there are 1958 objects listed as exoplanets:

These planets live in 1241 planetary systems: there are 488 multiple-planet RV or RV+T systems so far.

• 249 have two; 82 have 3, 29 have four, 11 have five, 3 have six, 2 have seven. Seen so far, that is.

• The most populous systems so far, with seven confirmed planets each: HD 10180, Kepler-90.

Smallest planets found around normal stars:

Kepler-37b: M = 0.0087M⊕, R = 0.029R⊕ (smallest radius)

Kepler-138b: M = 0.00021M⊕, R = 0.052R ⊕ (smallest mass)

Page 26: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Today’s exoplanets (continued)

12 planets have been found in multiple-star systems, starting with Kepler-16AB b in 2011.

• These planets orbit the center of mass of the pair of stars, at distance much greater than the separation of the stars. They are called Tatooines, after the planet on which Luke Skywalker grew up in Star Wars.

NASA’s new travel-agency sideline features trips to exotic destinations.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 26

Page 27: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Typical multi-planet systems

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 27

0.01 0.1 1 10 100Orbital semimajor axis (AU)

47 UMa55 Cnc61 VirGJ 581GJ 876HD 10180HD 125612HD 136352HD 181433HD 20794HD 31527HD 37124HD 39194HD 40307HD 69830HIP 14810HIP 57274HR 8799Kepler-11Kepler-18Kepler-9KOI-730µ Araυ AndSun

Page 28: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Properties of exoplanets: masses

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 28

It appears that the numbers of planets we detect would increase as planetary mass decreases, but for the difficulty in radial-velocity (RV) detection of small planets.

RV surveys are thought to be complete for masses in excess of a few Jupiters and a < a few AU, …

… and quite incomplete otherwise, either because the RV signals are small or because the orbital periods are much longer than we’ve been observing the stars.

Probability of detection of exoplanetshosted by stars in current RV surveys, assuming the sensitivity to be 10 m/sec (Mordasini et al. 2009).

1M

Page 29: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanet masses (continued)

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 29

So numbers of Jupiters and Super-Jupiters in < few AU orbits are accurately represented, as is the brown-dwarf desert: the absence of “planets” with m > 30 MJ.

The gap around 0.1 MJ is also real (Mayor et al. 2012).

The smaller population of Neptunes and Earths, though, is a bias: planets this small are still much harder to detect than Jupiters.

Data from exoplanet.eu

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000Mass (MJ)

Only planets

Siblings

Neptunes

Jupiters

Super-Jupiters

Super-Earths Brown-

dwarf desert

Earths

Page 30: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanet orbit sizes

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 30

There is a sharp peak in the distribution of orbit radii for Jupiter-like masses, around 0.06 AU. These are the hot Jupiters.

They do not comprise a large fraction of planets but are the easiest to detect.

There was not enough material in their locations in their protoplanetary disks for such massive planets to have formed where they are seen; they must have migratedfrom elsewhere in the disk. Data from exoplanet.eu

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100Se

mim

ajor

axi

s (A

U)

Mass (MJ)

Only planets

Siblings

Hot Jupiters

Page 31: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Exoplanet orbit sizes (continued)

Orbit sizes dominated by two peaks just past 0.1 AU and 1 AU.

Decline at 6AU is, again, a bias against long orbital periods: we haven’t watched such planets move far through their orbits.

Widely suggested that the 1 AU rise reflects an onset of increased planet-formation efficiency, as the snow line is usually around there.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 31

Data from exoplanet.eu. Includes many planets not appearing in the previous graphs, for which Kepler has measured orbit sizes but for which there are no RV observations yet.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000Semimajor axis (AU)

Only planets

Siblings

Page 32: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Composition of exo-solar systems

We can’t measure planet composition yet, but we can measure heavy element abundances in their host stars, and the result is interesting:

Jupiter-size exoplanets tend very strongly to occur in stars richer in heavy elements than usual, and

there is no tendency for Neptunes and super-Earths to be associated with heavy-element-enriched stars.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 32

Iron-abundance census: black = stars with Jovian planets, red = stars with only Neptunes or super-Earths, blue = all stars/100. From Mayor et al. 2012.

Page 33: Today in Astronomy 106: exoplanets - University of Rochesterdmw/ast106/Classes/Lect_08b.pdf · 2015-10-02 · 24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 1 Three methods of the exoplanet

Back to the Drake equation: fp

Essentially 100% of stars are born with enough material around them to make multiple planets of all sorts.

We have made surveys, of nearby stars for planets, that are unbiased over certain ranges of masses and orbital periods.

The resulting score at present (Mayor et al. 2012), for stars with mass 0.6-1.5M

:

About 0.9% host a hot Jupiter.

14%±2% host a gas-giant planet with P £ 10 years.

75% ±2% host a planet of any currently-detectable mass with P £ 10 years.

And we aren’t even good at detecting Earthlike planets, so it seems clear that fp is very close to 1.

24 September 2015 Astronomy 106, Fall 2015 33