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VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY

To Reach for the FutureCommercialization and the Future of the Human

Space Flight Program

Nicholas Tibbetts

4/22/2010


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Tibbetts 1

INTRODUCTION

They are majestic. They are powerful. They are the future. Since April 12, 1962, humanity has been in

space, conquering low earth orbit and placing footprints on the moon. However, with the retirement of

the space shuttle in July 2011, the future of American presence in space is in question. Several private

aerospace companies have risen to the challenge to design, fabricate, and efficiently use what is currently

the next generation of heavy lift spacecraft. These rockets, namely Orbital Sciences Taurus II, Space

Explorations (SpaceX) Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and NASAs Ares I, Ares V, and Jupiter launch

vehicles, are all capable of sending humans into space. Although NASA has over fifty years of

experience in human spaceflight (HSF) and space exploration, Orbital and SpaceX claim to be able to

send humans into space cheaper, faster, and better. Through cost-benefit and other various analyses, it is

evident that privatizing NASA is the best solution for replacing the space shuttle and NASAs many

conceptual launch platforms.

The space shuttle celebrated its inaugural flight on 12 April

1981 from Kennedy Space Center. Since its first flight, it

has inspired the imaginations of millions. In the 1960s,


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Tibbetts 2

lifetime costs puts the price tag at $1.5 billion per flight, (Hsu), making the space shuttle a remarkably

expensive program. The age and infrequent use of the shuttle is directly responsible for such expense and

is one reason why the orbiter will be retired mid-2011.

Because of Americas domination of low earth orbit and human spaceflight, it is essential that new

platforms are developed, tested, and integrated into the current arsenal of orbital spacecraft, specifically

those that are human-spaceflight rated. Due to the retirement of the space shuttle, NASA is expected to

pay nearly $63 million dollars per seat aboard Russian Soyuz spacecraft in order to keep American

presence in space (Malik). These high costs for space travel are a burden to the American taxpayer,

especially during an economic recession and accumulating debt. Fortunately, there are other options, and

NASA has proactively pursued them. On 18 April 2011, NASA announced that it was pledging what

amounts to a $270 million down payment on the space agencys post-shuttle future, financially backing

four companies that are heading the charge in private spaceflight including Blue Origin of Kent,

Washington, Sierra Nevada Corps. of Louisville, Colorado, SpaceX of Hawthorne, California, and The

Boeing Company of Houston, Texas (NASA Invests). NASA has also previously made arrangements

with other private companies such as Orbital Sciences Corporation of Dulles, Virginia, for various


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Tibbetts 3

that we get to the space station, (ChowPrivate

Rocket). SpaceX has a solution: the Falcon 9 rocket.

The Falcon 9 launch systems nine Merlin 1c engines

project an incredible 1,125,000 force pounds of thrust at

sea level, lifting a payload of up to 15,000 pounds to

orbit. The Falcon 9 and its primary vehicle, the Dragon

capsule have successfully completed two test flights and

will be ready within the next two years to deliver

payload to orbit. In December 2010, the Dragon

successfully re-entered Earths atmosphere safely,

demonstrating its ability to effectively send and return

humans to and from space. The capsule's successful splashdown in the Pacific Ocean more than three

hours later made SpaceX the first commercial company to re-enter a spacecraft from low-Earth orbit,

(Chow Millionaires). SpaceX is currently the only private company in the world capable of launching

and successfully returning a capsule to and from space. However, the company with the best solution

faces competition from many others.

Falcon 9


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Tibbetts 4

with their conceptual Taurus II rocket, sharing the mission with SpaceX and the Falcon 9. With a height

of 131 feet and a diameter of 12.8 feet, Taurus II is a large rocket. According to Orbital, it is designed to

provide responsive, low-cost, and reliable access to space, (Orbital). Unlike the Falcon 9, it is not

intended to immediately be a human spaceflight rated vehiclealthough it is a possibility that chairman

David Thompson has discussed for within the next fifteen yearsbut instead a mid-sized payload

delivery vehicle. Taurus II is a two-stage vehicle that can bring medium-class payloads weighting up to

6500 kg to orbit. It will be initially flown out of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) at NASA

Goddards Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. At launch, Taurus IIs two AJ26-62

LOX/RP-1 engines can provide 816,000 force pounds of thrust, propelling the composite rocket to its

destination.

The most promising launch platform in the future will be the Falcon Heavy spacecraft. While the new

Space X rocket is designed initially for cargo, it satisfies NASA's

current safety requirements for carrying humans and after several

launches could carry people too, (Borenstein). The Falcon Heavy

is expected to be the most powerful rocket ever developed. It is


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Tibbetts 5

The Taurus II, Falcon 9, and Falcon Heavy are just three examples of conceptual and prototypical rockets

that are currently being developed and tested. NASA has experimented with new launch platforms to

replace the shuttle and provide access to low

earth orbit for years, including the Ares I and

Ares V rockets (which were the launch vehicles

for the recently canceled Constellation Program)

and the Jupiter launch platform. Because of

budget overruns and time setbacks, the

Constellation Program was unfortunately

canceled in 2009. The DIRECT Jupiter

architecture became an alternative to the Constellation Programs Ares I and V platforms. Approved in

October 2010, the Space Launch System Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle [reworks] the existing Space

Shuttle vehicle design and infrastructure into a powerful, yet cost-effective Heavy Lift launch system

named Jupiter, (C-Star Aerospace). The DIRECT proposal envisions multiple configurations, all

utilizing a core based closely on the existing Space Shuttle External Tank and Solid Rocket Boosters.

Different crew and cargo variants can be integrated onto the core to provide a platform for a variety of

Jupiter DIRECT


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Tibbetts 6

platforms suggested for replacing the shuttle must be considered. SpaceXs Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy

platforms, Orbitals Taurus II, and United Launch Alliances Delta IV are four of the most innovative and

hopeful replacements to NASAs space shuttle and can provide inexpensive access to space.

Due to the economic recession and current political

landscape, NASA is facing a potentially flat budget over the

next decade. With the retirement of the space shuttle, some

funds will be redirected to other programs. According to

senior NASA officials, Rising launch costs could claim a

larger slice of a missions budget, increasing the price of

projects geared for planetary science, astrophysics and Earth

observations, (Clark). This will directly cause NASA to fly

fewer scientific and exploratory missions. Currently, NASA

flies many of their missions with United Launch Alliance

(ULA) and their Atlas V and Delta IV platforms. Lynn

Cline, deputy associate administrator for NASA's spaceDelta IV


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Tibbetts 7

humans out of low earth orbit for a small fraction of the cost of previous NASA programs. Borenstein

continues that over its 40 year design history, the space shuttle has cost about $1.5 billion per launch,

according to a study by the University of Colorado and an As sociated Press analysis of NASA budgets.

The Falcon Heavy would be launched at only seven percent of the cost of the shuttle and carry nearly

twice as much payload mass. The Falcon 9, while not as complex or capable as the shuttle, could

eventually carry humans and payload to orbit at only three percent of the cost of the shuttle.

SpaceX is only one company that is competing to fill the void caused by the retirement of the space

shuttle. Orbital Sciences Taurus II appears to be a cheaper alternative to the Falcon 9. While Orbital has

not published pricing for their Taurus II platform, one senior official estimated that a customer would

pay around ninety dollars per pound of payload to fly on the vehicle, (Tibbetts). In fact, as seen in

figure 1, every private company analyzed

offers a cheaper alternative to the space

shuttle. (It is important to note that

figure 1 is based off of estimates for cost

and launch mass; the price varies from

335.57

Cost Per Pound of Vehicles

(2010 Dollars)


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Tibbetts 8

Private spacecraft also offer more payload

and thrust per mission than the shuttle, as

seen in figures 2 and 3. The Falcon Heavy

will be a particularly demonstrative vehicle,

with an average cost of $32.25 per pound at

launch and a 53,000 payload. The Falcon

Heavy also will have the highest thrust per

pound at launch. Vehicles such as this

clearly demonstrate the versatility and

efficiency private industry can provide for

human spaceflight. Not only are platforms

such as the Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and

Taurus II innovative and capable, they offer

efficient and low cost access to space. The

competition among private companies will

Space

Shuttle

Falcon 9 Falcon

Heavy

Taurus II Delta IV

24,400

15,000

53000

7000

22980

Max Payload (lb) (LEO)

Figure 2


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Tibbetts 9

the void in American access to space. The competition among these two industry leaders and other

companies wishing to fill the void will drive prices down from the current $335 per pound of payload to

$32 per pound of payload, resulting in more sorties and missions flown by NASA and others. While

NASA tries to produce a replacement for the shuttle, private companies are producing cheaper and better

platforms. It is apparent that privatization of human spaceflight is the best solution for scientists, the

American taxpayer, and those working in space. The future of spaceflight is here, and it is time to reach

for it. The time for privatization has come.

DESCRIPTION OF SOURCES FOR ANALYSIS

Human spaceflight is currently a hot political issue. Throughout this analysis, news articles, particularly

those from the Associated Press, Fox news, and Space.com were used for information, many being

released days prior to the writing of this paper. The rocket user guides, published by the companies of the

vehicles, were the sources for all technical information used in this report, with the exception of the

Falcon Heavy, which was announced on 4 April 2011 and does not yet have a user guide, and the space

shuttle, which also does not have a users guide.


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Tibbetts 10

Works Cited and Selected Bibliography

Borenstein, Seth. "Company Planning Biggest Rocket since Man on Moon." News.yahoo.com. Associated

Press, 5 Apr. 2011. Web. 20 Apr. 2011.

.

Chow, Denise. "Millionaire's Private Space Capsule Splashes Down After Successful Maiden Voyage."

Space.com. 9 Dec. 2010. Web. 20 Apr. 2011. .

Chow, Denise. "NASA Contractor Could Keep Flying Space Shuttles." Foxnews.com. 18 Apr. 2011.

Web. 19 Apr. 2011. .

Chow, Denise. "Private Rocket Firm SpaceX to Fill Space Shuttle Void." Space.com. 13 Apr. 2011. Web.

20 Apr. 2011. .

C-Star Aerospace.DIRECT Team Declares Success and Looks to the Future. 13 Oct. 2010. Web. 20 Apr.

2011.


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Tibbetts 11

"Kennedy Space Center - Frequently Asked Questions."Nasa.gov. Ed. Jeanne Ryba. 24 Feb. 2008. Web.

19 Apr. 2011. .

Malik, Tariq. "NASA to Fly Astronauts on Russian Spaceships at Nearly $63 Million per Seat."

Space.com. 14 Mar. 2011. Web. 19 Apr. 2011. .

Moskowitz, Clara. "SpaceX Unveils Plan for World's Most Powerful Private Rocket." Space.com. 5 Apr.

2011. Web. 20 Apr. 2011. .

"NASA Invests $270 Million in Potential Shuttle Replacements." Foxnews.com. 18 Apr. 2011. Web. 19

Apr. 2011. .

Okolski, Gabriel. "STS-1 History."History.nasa.gov. Web. 19 Apr. 2011.

.

Orbital Sciences Corporation. Taurus II Fact Sheet. Dulles: Orbital Sciences Corporation, 2011.


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Photo Credits

Jupiter DIRECThttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/da/20081020184306!Jupiter_Family.jpg

Falcon Heavyhttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpg

Taurus IIhttp://www.orbital.com/images/Low/TaurusII_OnPad..jpg

Falcon 9http://spacegizmo.livingdazed.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/falcon9LRG.jpg

Space Shuttlehttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-

discovery.JPG

Delta IVhttp://www.floridatoday.com/content/blogs/space/uploaded_images/Delta4-746299.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/da/20081020184306!Jupiter_Family.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/da/20081020184306!Jupiter_Family.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpghttp://www.orbital.com/images/Low/TaurusII_OnPad..jpghttp://www.orbital.com/images/Low/TaurusII_OnPad..jpghttp://spacegizmo.livingdazed.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/falcon9LRG.jpghttp://spacegizmo.livingdazed.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/falcon9LRG.jpghttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-discovery.JPGhttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-discovery.JPGhttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-discovery.JPGhttp://www.floridatoday.com/content/blogs/space/uploaded_images/Delta4-746299.jpghttp://www.floridatoday.com/content/blogs/space/uploaded_images/Delta4-746299.jpghttp://www.floridatoday.com/content/blogs/space/uploaded_images/Delta4-746299.jpghttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-discovery.JPGhttp://blog.svconline.com/briefingroom/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/space-shuttle-discovery.JPGhttp://spacegizmo.livingdazed.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/falcon9LRG.jpghttp://www.orbital.com/images/Low/TaurusII_OnPad..jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dYmlnv4_734/TZuCTyQRTmI/AAAAAAAAIP4/l-LYYa5qI5Y/s1600/Falcon_Heavy.3k.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/da/20081020184306!Jupiter_Family.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/da/20081020184306!Jupiter_Family.jpg


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Appendix

Technical Information on Various Lanuch Platforms

Falcon 9 Taurus II Delta IV Space Shuttle Falcon Heavy

Manufacturer SpaceX Orbital Sciences United Launch NASA SpaceXHeight (ft) 178 131 235 184.2 227

Diameter (ft) 12 12.8 16.7 28.5 17

Mass (lbs) 735,000 530,000 1,615,988 4,470,000 3,100,000

Stages 2 2 2 n/a 2

First Stage Propellant LOX/RP-1 LOX/RP-1Liquid

Hydrogen/OxygenLiquid

Hydrogen/OxygenLOX/RP-1

First Stage MaterialAluminum

LithiumAluminum Waffle

Structure/Aluminumn/a

Aluminum/LithiumAlloy

AluminumLithium

First Stage Engines 9 Merlin 1c

2 AJ26-62LOX/RP-1 engines

with individualthrust vector control

systems

3 RS-68 engines3 Space ShuttleMain Engines

(SSME)s27 Merlin 1c

First Stage Thrust (at

Sea Level)1,125,000 lbf 816,000 lbf 1,950,000 lbf 400,000 lbf 3,800,000 lbf

Second StagePropellant

LOX/RP-1 Modified mixture ofTP-H8299 solid fuel LiquidHydrogen/Oxygen

Aluminum

PerchlorateCompositePropellant

LOX/RP-1

Second Stage MaterialAluminum

Lithium

Compositegraphite/epoxy

wound casen/a 1/4 inch thick steel

AluminumLithium

Second Stage Engines1 MerlinVacuum

CASTOR 30Amotor

Pratt & WhitneyRL10B-2 engine

2 solid rocketboosters

1 Merlin Vacuum


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Second Stage Thrust

(vacuum)100,000 lbf 80,000 lbf 24,750 lbf

2.8 million lbf each(3.1 million after

launch)n/a

Supported Launch

Ranges

Kwajelein,Vandenberg

Poker Flats,Wallops, Kennedy,

Vandenberg,VAFB, CCAFS

CCAFS,Vandenberg

KennedyKwajelein,Vandenberg

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