to infinity & beyond! peter cochrane conceptlabs ca co-founder
TRANSCRIPT
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To Infinity & Beyond!
Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA Co-Founder
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Wireless communication Personal Communication
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Faster & Faster Wealth Generation
0102030405060708090
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
New
Com
pan
y V
alu
e
US$Bn
PCInternet
Year
Mobile
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Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
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Rec
ycle
Trash
Consumer
Trash Consumer
Distribution ManufactureRaw
MaterialsRETAIL
Ecosystem
B-B B-B B-B
B-CC-CC-BMobileMachine
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2G - A field of dreams…
…& 750M did, just for Voice & SMS
Build it and they will come…
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Communicating on the move…
We value mobility above Quality
We value mobility above Price
Mobility is Personal
Text messaging is about Time Shifting
Data & text are more important than voice
Bandwidth is now the lubricant of our society
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UK SMS Messages 99
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
Millions
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UK SMS Messages
Year 1
Year 2
3.5Bn
0.3Bn
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UK SMS Messages
Year 2Year 1
Year 3
12Bn
3.5Bn
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3G - A field of dreams…
Build it and will they come…again?Wire line qualitySeamless roamingMP3 Sound FilesMPEG Movie FilesJPEG Digital PhotosOn Line GamesIP TelephonyIP Video ConferenceIP Radio & TVGPS + TeleCare+++New Markets
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Why did WAP fail?
Over-hypedOverdueUnder performed
-Slow-Limited web access-Nothing like a PC
Too complex to engineerToo complex to use
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13
Disruptive Technologies
New TechnologyPer
form
ance
Time
Sustained technological improvements 3G>>2G
Performance customers
can absorb or utilize
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Powerful mobile devices…
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Voice
Messaging
Internet
Java
M-Media
5 years
4 years
2 years
1year
Machines
0.5 year
More Mobile than fixed Messages the voice Net purchases than a PC
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A small screen
is not aBIG SCREEN
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Will 3G happen in the EU?
£> 60Bn = Licence fees> 60Bn = Infrastructure> 60Bn = Development >??Bn = Marketing & Sales
>200Bn = Total
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Will 3G happen in the EU?
~ £400 per head of population> 10 years to break even> 18 months to first chip sets > 24 months to first sales> 48 months worst case
Mounting public pressure & changinggovernment position on masts & towers
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Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs
Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services
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Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs
Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services
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Government Options?
Reset the clockGive the money back
A once vibrant sector has been raped and may never be the same again
Banks may begin to foreclose on Mounting debts
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The Only Realistic Option?
Use 3G to wipe out the last/first mile
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1mm 10cm 10m 1km 1000km
1cm 1m 100m 10km 10000km
Chipto
Chip
Boardto
BoardBackplanes
Network TypesCopper, Fibre, Radio, Optical - Static - Mobile
LANs WANs MANs
LongHaul
Spatial Density Spectral Density
Everything is moving toward IP based operations
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3G Threats & Limitations??
Technology options frozen too early- Not IP based- CDMA is band-limited - 2.5G can deliver almost as much- 4G coming faster than expected- Parasitic networks are far superior
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Yearly Productivity
0
20
70
40
100
60
80
BW
Chip
SW
Qu
anti
ty/U
nit
Tim
e
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InfrastructureWireless WWW
Content / Apps
Devices
150% pa
350% pa
Carrier’s the
bottleneck
35% pa
The key constraint?
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1T
1G
1M
1K
1
Extrapolation from 1950s
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
Backbone
RAM
Clock
Last/First Mile
HD
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100Mbit/sLAN
11Mbit/sWLAN
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile
Office
&
Home
NetworkAlways On Dial Up
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100,000MByte
1000MHz
LAN100
Mbit/s11Mbit/s
HardDrives Clock
WLAN MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
Office
&
Home
Network
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Net Access
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
Mobile phones
Mobile PhonesWith web access
PCs
Wired phones
Bn
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If Telco's sold cars…
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Will the Telco/Cable Co’s Deliver?
NOThey just don’t get it!They just don’t have it!They don’t want to do it!They don’t have to do it!They can’t do it anyway!!
Wrong infrastructureWrong mindsetMounting debts
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Have we been here before?
YES
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Have we been here before?
YESCommunity Antenna TV ABC don’t do terminals ABC don’t do support ABC don’t do delivery ABC don’t do networks
Parasitic Nets - 802.11 et al
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Who needs a Telco or Cableco?
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PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
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PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
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PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
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PARASITIC NETWORKSWith mobile base stations!
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Deviceto
Device
As today
PARASITIC NETWORKSNew modes!
DeviceRepeater
DeviceBroadcast
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Wireless - the story so far…
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
30 MHz
300MHz
3GHz
30GHz
300GHz
3000GHz
Short wave radio
Black & White TV
Experimental CommSatellite
ColourTV
Microwave Antenna
Walkie-Talkie
Marine Satellite
CellularPhone
MilitarySatellite
Low-EarthOrbit Satellite
BroadBandSatellite
Modern Shortwave
10 m
100m
1m
10 cm
1cm
1mm
0.1mm
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FM
TV
Mobile
Optical
Op
por
tun
ity
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Wireless Technologies
Radio
RegulatedSecure
Medium-long rangeNarrowband
MatureRadiation risk?
< 300GHz
Optical
UnregulatedVery secureShort rangeBroadbandImmature
No radiation risk> 50,000GHzSpectrum
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Diffuse Optical
Cell
Broadband
Mobile
Secure
Opticaltransceiver
Network
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Switch
TelCo/CableCo Defence
X
ISP
Mobile
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Latency
• Network latency should be dominated by the speed-of-light delay
• Managed by tight integration of optical and electronic technologies, architectures, operating systems and programming
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Minimising Latency
• provide abundant network bandwidth• strip out layers and protocols• minimise network crossings
- ideal: each ‘expedition’=1 crossing + return• introduce ‘information geography’ (location
and distance of information) as the key parameter in network architecture, operating systems and programming
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processor memory
processor memory
processor memory
processor memory
Current architecture
Future-matched architecture
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Telephone Network
Random Events + Hierarchy => Time + Frequency Aggregation => Economy=> Blocking/Freeze Out
Control - Total - Prescriptive=> Fixed Bandwidth=> Low Flexibility=> Extremely Reliable=> Reasonably Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Data
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Internet
Bursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time Aggregation => Economy=> Variable Latency
Control - Little=> Variable Bandwidth=> High Flexibility=> Flaky=> Infinitely Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Speech
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Parasitic NetsBursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time + Space Aggregation => Economy=> Huge Latency
Control - None=> Variable Bandwidth=> Infinite Flexibility=> Highly Reliable=> Highly Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Real Time
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Hardware Software
NetworkApplications
Convergence??
I don’t think so….
Established Wisdom
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Planet wide universal access??
Thank you,
cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net