t.m. maleva o.v. sinyavskaya is it possible to raise fertility level in russia?
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T.M. Maleva O.V. Sinyavskaya Is it possible to raise fertility level in Russia? Results of new empirical studies. “Family in the Stream of Changes: Demographic Challenges to Social Policy” International conference Moscow, November 28-29,. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
T.M. MalevaO.V. Sinyavskaya
Is it possible to raise fertility level in Russia?
Results of new empirical studies
“Family in the Stream of Changes: Demographic Challenges to Social Policy”
International conferenceMoscow, November 28-29,
2
How to overcome the shortage of demographic data?
Surveys of households as
a source of demographic, economic and social behavior data
Survey
«Parents and children, men and women in families and society» (Russian GGS)
Part of the Generations & Gender International Program (GGP)
1 respondent = 1 household
Representative of the Russian Federation
More than 2000 variables with info on respondent, his/her partner,
parents, children and household members
Panel
7,880
2004
11,261
2007
11,111
First wave
Financed byRF PF, MPIDR, IISP
Mid 2004
Second wave
Financed byRF PF, UNFPA, Sberbank
Mid 2007
3
Births within the last three years based on the number of children in a family
Number of children in a family
3 years ago
Gave birth within last 3 years
Did not give birth within last 3 years
Total
number percent number percent number percent
0 256 57.8 709 27.9 965 32.3
1 147 33.2 964 37.7 1105 37.0
2 32 7.2 723 28.4 754 25.3
3 3 0.7 123 5.1 133 4.5
4 and more 5 1.1 22 0.9 27 0.9
Total 443 100 2541 100 2984 100
4
Which factors influence fertility?
Fertility within the last three years depending on the type of settlement, percent
70
72
68
30
28
32
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Total
First child
Second or subsequent child
city rural
5
Fertility within the last three years in 5-year age groups of women, percent
5 8
30
48
7
34
31
37
22
11
35
72
14
3 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total First child Second andsubsequent child
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
below 20
6
Fertility within the last three years based on respondent’s and her partner’s employment status, percent
69
31
91
9
0 20 40 60 80 100
employed
unoccupied
employed
unoccupied
Wom
an's
em
ploy
men
tst
atus
a y
ear
befo
rech
ildbi
rth
Par
tner
's e
mpl
oym
ent
stat
us
7
Educational level of women who gave birth within the last three years, percent
Age-adjusted fertility deviations in groups of women with various levels of educational, times
13 14 12
11 11 11
18 16 21
36 3438
23 26 20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
total First child Second and subsequent child
Higher, Including incomplete
Completedvocational
Primaryvocational
Secondary
No secondary
-1
0
1
2
3
4
до 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Dev
iatio
n fr
om m
ean
, tim
es
No secondary ed
Secondary
Primary vocational
Completed vocational
Higher
8
Actual number of children born per woman, decile groups of household, per capita incomes
Income groupAverage number of children,
per woman in a group
1 decile 1.7
2 1.6
3 1.3
4 1.3
5 1.1
6 1.1
7 1.1
8 0.9
9 0.9
10 decile 0.8
Total 1.2
9
Reproductive Intentions
Proportion of women intending to have a child depending on the current number of children per family and
type of settlement, percent in a group
All No children With one child
With two and more children
General intentions
urban 30.2 47.0 33.3 9.8
rural 17.2 50.0 27.1 5.8
Intentions for 3 years to come
urban 29.9 56.4 30.4 4.9
rural 18.4 65.7 28.8 4.3
10
Intentions of women to have a child depending on the current number of children in a family, percent
Distribution of women intending to have a child depending on their age and the current number of children per family
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
All women No children One child Two and more children
General intentions, % in a group For 3 years, % in a group
General, % total For 3 years, % total
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
under 20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44
3 years with no children 3 years with one and more children
General with no children General with one and more children
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Proportion of women intending to have a child depending on the availability of a partner and current number of children, percent per group
Does R has a partner?
All No childrenOne and more
children
generalin 3
yearsgeneral
in 3 years
generalin 3
years
No 23.1 21.6 40.6 45.9 16.1 11.6
Yes, living separately 33.8 37.9 40.5 53.4 26.7 21.4
Yes, living together 25.3 25.0 61.0 72.4 21.2 19.6
Registered marriage 22.6 21.4 68.9 77.3 20.0 18.3
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Relative variation of actual and expected (if overall intentions are realized) number of children
by mother’s age and educational level
Actual number of children Expected number of children
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
All
Primary vocationaland lower
Secondary vocational
Higher education0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
13
Actual and potential number of children per woman of different religiosity
Actual number of children Potential number of children
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Woman's age, years
Pot
entia
l num
ber
of c
hild
ren
per
wom
an0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
Woman's age, years
Act
ual n
umbe
r of
chi
ldre
n pe
r w
oman
Islam
Religious (otherthan islam)
Irreligious
14
Actual and potential average number of children per woman, decile groups
1,2
1,5
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
1 д
ец
ил
ь
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 д
ец
ил
ь 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Доля женщин,намеренныхиметь детей
Фактическоечисло детей
Средняя пофактическимрождениям
Ожидаемоечисло детей пообщимнамерениям
Средняя поожидаемымрождениям
1,2
1,5
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
1 д
ец
ил
ь
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 д
ец
ил
ь 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Доля женщин,намеренныхиметь детей
Фактическоечисло детей
Средняя пофактическимрождениям
Ожидаемоечисло детей пообщимнамерениям
Средняя поожидаемымрождениям
Share of womenintended to give birth
Actual number of children
Average actual number of children
Potential number of children
Average potential number of children 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
D e c i l e g r o u p s
(Right scale)
(Left scale)
(Left scale)
(Left scale)
(Left scale)
15
Intention to have a child, 2004 and 2007, percent in group
58
19
58
20
36
20
35
21
6
61
8
60
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
no child 1 child and more no child 1 child and more
2004 г. 2007 г.
No inteded to have achild
Intended to have achild later
Intended to have achild in nearest 3years
16
Ideal number of children, percent in group
4
2127
41
61
78
7
56
52
68
17 18
91
137
30
1 1 24 20%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
no child 1 child 2 and morechildren
no child 1 child 2 and morechildren
Want to have a child Don't want to have a child
3 and morechildren
2 children
1 child
no child
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Factors influencing reproductive behavior and reproductive intention
Legend: “+” - relevant factor (regardless of direction) “ –” - statistically insignificant “0” - no relevant data
Factor BirthReproductive
intention
Type of settlement –/+ +
Woman’s age + +
Current number of children + +
Partner + +
Marriage status + +/–
Woman’s status in the labor market –/+ +/–
Partner’s status in the labor market – +
Education + +
Income 0 +
Housing + –
Attitude towards religion – +
Social and psycological factors 0 +
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What is to be done?Lessons for social policy
1. Russia today has the capacity to boost fertility. Assuming all respondents desiring to have children in the future give birth to just one child, fertility may increase from 1.2 to 1.5 children per woman in the next three years.
2. Apart from low income, poor housing may prove to be a barrier to increased fertility (second and further births).
3. Economic fertility-boosting measures are not a cure all. Social factors are of no less importance, even though at times they are unrelated to the growth of economic wellbeing.
4. Family policy geared solely toward officially registered marriages may leave out large populations with a certain fertility potential.
5. Fertility growth unaccompanied by changes in labor relations, the introduction of flexible working schedules for women, development of child-care and educational facilities for children, may result in the fertility potential of well-educated and employed women remaining unfulfilled or a number of women significantly reducing time and effort in the labor market.
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What is to be done?Lessons for social policy
6. Society should be prepared to accommodate the fact that Islamic populations will respond first to social fertility-boosting measures.
7. In order to take action, it is important to be informed. Sociologic research is needed to answer the following questions:
Are the intentions of respondents regarding future births likely to be fulfilled?
Which factors will boost fertility, and what are the barriers to boosting fertility?
Which factors will produce immediate and measurable effects and which will have “delayed” actions?
Will current trends be influenced by measures featured in the 2006 National Program?
And finally, will social and economic factors produce an unequal effect on population behavior today and reproductive intentions for the future?
To be continued basing on the second wave…