tmc 2013 far horizon tech session
TRANSCRIPT
Future Truck Looking Far Over the Horizon:
Fleet Managers’ Assessment
Of Future Equipment Needs:
2025 and Beyond
Ken Howden DOE
Jeff Seger Cummins Engine
Paul Menig Tech-I-M
Tom Stover Eaton
Presenters
SuperTruck Vehicle
Engine Transmission Fleet Survey
SuperTruck Initiative and 21st Century Truck Partnership
Ken Howden Director 21st Century Truck Partnership
Vehicle Technologies Office U.S. Department of Energy
Truck Fuel Use Projected to Increase • Commercial transportation energy demand
projected to expand 70% worldwide (2010-2040) - World fuel use for trucks will exceed fuel use for
all personal vehicles (2030) • Fewer fuel/technology options in heavy-duty
- Limited opportunity for electrification (vs. light-duty)
- Technology hurdles for alternative fuels • Limited opportunity at present for freight
mode shifts - Doubling rail intermodal shipments increases
rail freight market share by only 0.3%
Source - ExxonMobil 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Need increased truck fuel efficiency to mitigate these projected increases
Truck Research Landscape – Issues and Needs
FUEL
USE
• Projected to increase for trucks • Need efficiency improvements
SALE
S • Truck sales are cyclical • Unpredictable corporate R&D
funding
R&D
• HD similar to LD in % of revenue invested in R&D, but fewer total dollars invested
REG
S
• Regulations impact all areas of trucking industry
• Much R&D investment to meet these regulations
NEED FOR INVESTMENT IN COLLABORATIVE
R&D FOR THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY
• Accelerate technology development
• Provide focus for R&D efforts
• Information exchange forum
21st Century Truck Partnership
• 21CTP message – Accelerate introduction of truck and bus technologies
to reduce fuel use, increase fuel diversity, operate more safely, increase reliability, meet future emissions standards, and maintain cost effectiveness
• Research partnership between government and industry
• Regulatory environment informs 21CTP needs/gaps/ barriers – 21CTP goals are longer-range/higher risk, and
complement near-term regulatory goals
21CTP Research Focus Areas
• Engine Systems • Heavy-Duty Hybrid Systems • Vehicle Power Demands • Idle Reduction • Safety • Efficient Operations
New technical roadmap document presents goals and objectives for these areas
21CTP and SuperTruck • National Academy of Sciences conducts periodic
reviews of 21CTP – Review progress, provide recommendations for future
consideration – Favorable results from most recent review – continue
partnership, refine goals and objectives • Defined and implemented a new “SuperTruck”
initiative for improvement of freight efficiency at the vehicle system level – Addresses previous NAS recommendations – Four teams (all 21CTP members) – Goal of 50% improvement in freight efficiency (ton-mi/gal) – Received positive feedback on SuperTruck from NAS panel
Trailer skirts Gap reduction Tractor/trailer integration (major redesign)
Combustion improvements Turbocompounding Waste heat recovery
New generation wide base single tires Tire compounds, casing, tread Central tire inflation
Hybridization Reduced drivetrain friction Automated manual transmissions
Electric accessories APU
Heavy-duty trucks use 20% of the fuel consumed in the United States. Fuel economy improvements in these trucks directly and quickly reduces petroleum consumption
Energy losses in Class 8 trucks and opportunities for efficiency
improvements
Highway 59% Urban 58%
Highway 2% Urban 7%
Highway 2% Urban 5% Highway 0%
Urban 16%
Highway 16% Urban 9%
Highway 21% Urban 5%
Class 8 Tractor-Trailer Energy Balance
SuperTruck Initiative
• Goal: To develop and demonstrate a 50% improvement in overall freight efficiency on a heavy-duty Class 8 tractor-trailer measured in ton-miles per gallon and achieve 50% (and showing pathway to 55%) engine thermal efficiency
• Cooperative R&D Agreement Awards:
– Cummins Inc. with Peterbilt (ARRA Funded)
– Daimler Trucks North America (ARRA Funded)
– Navistar, Inc. – Volvo Trucks North America
Cummins/Peterbilt SuperTruck Team • Cummins – engine/contract lead • Modine – cooling module • Eaton –transmission • Dana – drivetrain • Bridgestone – fuel efficient tires • Alcoa – wheels • Delphi – solid oxide fuel cell APU • Bergstrom – eSHVAC • Garmin – 3D map and display • Exa – CFD analysis • Utility Trailer Manufacturing –
trailer • US Xpress – end user
FUNDING: DOE Share $38.8M
Contractor Share $42.1M
Daimler SuperTruck Team • DTNA – vehicle development • Detroit Diesel – powertrain • Daimler Research – waste heat • Oregon State University –
composite frame analysis, fuel efficient routing
• Schneider National – end user • Wal-Mart – end user • Great Dane – trailer • ARC – aerodynamics • Solar World Industries America
– auxiliary power
FUNDING: DOE Share $39.6M
Contractor Share $39.6M
Navistar SuperTruck Team • Navistar – principal investigator,
vehicle systems integrator controls systems, engine & vehicle testing
• Alcoa – lightweight frame & wheel materials
• AT Dynamics – trailer aerodynamic devices
• Meritor – hybrid powertrain, axles • Behr America – cooling systems • Michelin – low rolling resistance tires • TPI – composite material structures • Wabash National – trailer technologies • Argonne National Lab – hybrid drive
simulation and controls & battery testing
• Lawrence Livermore National Lab – aerodynamic testing
FUNDING: DOE Share $37.3M
Contractor Share $51.8M
Volvo SuperTruck Team • Volvo Technology of America –
Lead • Volvo Group Truck Technology –
aerodynamics, lightweighting, auxiliaries
• Volvo Group Powertrain Engineering – engine, transmission, axles
• Penn State University – engine simulation and testing
• Grote - lighting • Freight Wing - aerodynamics • University of California Los
Angeles – Rankine waste heat recovery simulation
• Ricardo, Inc. – Rankine system integration
• Hendrickson - suspension • Meritor - brakes
FUNDING: DOE Share $19M
Contractor Share $19M
Current SuperTruck Project Status
• Teams are approaching the midpoint of their 4 to 5 year projects – All teams on track to meet 50% engine efficiency goal – One team demonstrated 51% engine efficiency in a
laboratory setting – Aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction
have demonstrated freight efficiency improvement of greater than 20%
– All teams expect to exceed the 50% freight efficiency improvement goal based on prototype vehicle evaluation completed to date
Summary • 21st Century Truck Partnership provides a forum
for industry and government participants to identify technical gaps and barriers, develop goals and synergize technology development.
• SuperTruck Initiative combines government and industry resources to develop technical solutions for Class 8 truck freight efficiency that are innovative and suitable for commercialization.
Diversified Global Power Leader
Engines Power Generation
Components Distribution
Four Complementary Businesses
Future Trends in Fuel Efficiency Jeff Seger, Executive Director Cummins Inc.
Aftercooling
Diesel Particulate Filter
Selective Catalytic Reduction
Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Electronic Fuel Systems
1990 2000 2010 2020
CO2 NOx, PM
22
Evolution of Technology New Technologies
Air Handling & EGR
Fuel Systems
Combustion Aftertreatment (AT)
Electronic Controls
Waste Heat Recovery 23
Component Technology Integration
25
Technologies for 50% Engine Thermal Efficiency
Base Engine & Aftertreatment Piston bowl size & shape Calibration optimization Lower dP EGR loop Turbocharger efficiency AfterTreatment Efficiency
Parasitic Reductions Variable flow lube pump Cylinder kit friction Cooling & fuel pump power
WHR system EGR, Exhaust, Recuperator Turbine Expander Low GWP Refrigerant
SuperTruck Efficiency Improvement Results
Transmission Integration
• Partner with all transmission suppliers in the industry • Technology Trends
– Down-speeding the engine – Weight Reduction – Increased data communication
26
Frequent Start/Stop
Seldom Start/Stop Duty Cycle
Fuel
Eco
nom
y B
enef
it
27
Hybrids Waste Heat Recovery
Fuel
Ene
rgy(
100%
)
Brake Power (42%)
Friction/ Misc Losses
(8%)
Heat Transfer (24%)
Exhaust Energy (26%)
Was
te
Hea
t Cooled EGR
Tailpipe Exhaust 200-600o C
200-750o C
Charge Air Cooling
Engine Cooling
20-60o C
80-100o C
Was
te
Hea
t Q
ualit
y Lo
w
28
Energy balance of engine shows that EGR and Exhaust gas stream energy are the primary sources for energy recovery.
Energy Balance and WHR Sources
28
29
Waste Heat Recovery (Line Haul)
Waste Heat Waste Heat
Waste Heat
Boiler / Superheater
Pump Working Fluid – Closed Cycle
Condenser
Power Turbine /Expander
AddiConal Power
Exhaust / EGR
WHR Fuel Economy Benefits
Savi
ngs
per
year
for
the
C
usto
mer
($)
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
$4.25
$4.50
$4.75
$5.00
$5.25
Projected DF2 Price $ / gallon
WHR: Projected Customer Savings
30
Vehicle Integration
WHR Exhaust Heat Exchanger Exhaust
Aftertreatment
WHR Recuperator
WHR EGR Heat Exchanger
WHR Condensor
31
Powertrains of 2025 • Fearless Forecasts • Technology Trends • Vendor’s View
Tom Stover Chief Technology Officer Eaton Vehicle Group
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Fearless Forecasts Make regulations a win-win
Upward pressure on fuel economy
EPA DOT Competition Energy Policy
Energy Costs
Fuel economy improvement of 30-40% over 2010 baseline
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Fearless Forecasts Natural, Diesel, Fuel Efficiency and Greenhouse gases
NG Availability/Cost
Diesel Energy Efficiency
NG will level with Diesel over time
Competition Profits
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Technology Trends: Trucks get more slippery
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) • Aerodynamics • Rolling Resistance
Cruise power cut by 50%
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
• Improvements in recoverable-energy, motors and batteries will make the hybrid system payback more attractive - increasing hybrids in most applications!
Technology Trends: Hybrid Potential
F.E.hyb = f(K.E./R.L., HPabs, HPmot, CAPbat, Duty Cycle)
More recoverable
-energy
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer)
Bigger, cheaper motors
Bigger, cheaper batteries + +
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Technology Trends: Fuel Economy
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) • Aerodynamics • Advanced Controls • Rolling Resistance • Driver Control • Hybrids
Engine • Combustion • Advanced Aftertreament • Exh. Energy Recovery • Downspeeding
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Technology Trends: Fuel Economy
Vehicle (Truck/Trailer) • Aerodynamics • Advanced Controls • Rolling Resistance • Driver Control • Hybrids
Engine • Combustion • Advanced Aftertreament • Exh. Energy Recovery • Downspeeding
Automation is a fuel economy enabler
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Automated Transmissions
Downspeeding • Enabled by
Automation • Shift performance is
critical
Advanced Controls • GPS • Traffic density • V2V • V2I
Driver Controls • Shift decisions • Vehicle dynamics • Power demand • Safety
Advanced automated transmissions enable fuel economy
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
A Supplier’s View:
• The independent suppliers have: – Scale – Ability to invest – Strong partnerships – Proven integration skill
• We continue to provide optimized business solutions to our customers!
Confidential and Proprietary, © 2013, Eaton Corporation
Survey Timeline • 2012
– Q2 Development – Q3 Pilot – Q4 Approval and start
• 2013 – Q1 Initial completion and first results – Q2 Start of interviews and continued survey – Q4 SAE ComVec Executive Panel
• 2014 – Q1-4 Write position papers
• 2015 – Q1 Future Truck position papers published
Survey Overview
• 22 Categories – bumper to trailer tail lights • 4 parts
– Part 1 November 2012 75 respondents – Part 2 December 2012 57 respondents – Part 3 January 2013 43 respondents – Part 4 February 2013 39 respondents
• Request fleets to participate in all 4 parts
Respondent Overview
Maintenance 78%
Purchasing 13%
Other 9% Position
>25 years 61%
20-24 years 21%
10-19 years 13%
<10 years 5%
Time in Industry
Fleet Overview
<10 8%
10-100 35%
100-500 37%
500-1000 5%
>1000 15%
Tractors
<10 73%
10-50 11%
50-100 8%
100-250 3%
>250 5%
Trucks
<10 8%
10-100 28%
100-500 42%
500-1000 6%
>1000 16%
Trailers
Driver Type
<10 66%
10-100 17%
100-500 12%
500-1000 1%
>1000 4%
Owner/Operator
<10 8%
10-100 28%
100-500 42%
500-1000 6%
>1000 16%
Company
• Usage percentage based on >50% of respondents
• Other numbers, > 50% of respondents – Absolutely Much more – Most Likely More – Probably About the same – Maybe Less – No Much Less
Basis for Statements
Likely = Absolutely + Most Likely > 50% of Respondents
Engine and Under Hood • 13 Liter Engine with 401-450HP • Oil change interval > 60,000 miles • Electric power steering likely • > 25% usage of computer controlled air
compressor • > 9 mpg
Hybrids & Alternative Fuels • Diesel/electric hybrids, CNG, LNG
– Each likely to be > 10%, maybe 25% share • Biofuel above 16%, possibly above 25% • Could something else power a vehicle?
– 23% say no • Class 6/7 will stay diesel
After Treatment • SCR a winner, but with only 28% • 72% believe SCR/EGR or something else • 40% believe first cleaning in <600K miles • Waste heat recovery likely • Vertical exhaust will be gone – NOT true • Should be smaller
Transmissions & Clutches
• Class 8 AMT’s above 60% usage • Hydraulic automatic transmission increase
– Class 8 above 15% – Class 6-7 above 70%, rest AMT/manual
• Clutch life > 500K miles
Axles and Wheel Ends • >60% say axles and wheel ends will be lighter • Aluminum hubs >60% usage • Metal matrix composite drums >15% usage • 80% 10 lugs, 20% 8 or something else • Torque retightening still needed • Probably reduce 3 wheel systems to 1 • Disc brake usage above 75%
Tires • Wide based singles usage >40% • Will last > 10-25% more than today
– Steer, drive, tandem, axle, trailer • Probably have tread depth sensors • Tractor Tire pressure monitor/control
>80% usage
Aerodynamics
• Under vehicle air likely to be managed • Trailer gap dynamic control likely • Fifth wheel height dynamic is probable • No external antennas likely • Cameras replacing mirrors—maybe
– 42% say likely for hood mounted – 35% say likely for side view
Anti Idle Equipment • Main engine will not be used • Plug in unlikely • Will APU be diesel powered?
– 29% believe battery powered – 25% believe fuel cell
Trailers • 38% believe in doubles/triples • 34% believe longer trailers • 39% believe more trailer axles • 65% believe separate trailer tracking • 58% believe lighter weight • 55% believe more connections to tractor • Tire pressure monitor/control >80% usage • Blind spot/backup monitors >40% usage
Durability/Reliability • Today – 54% keep more than 6 years • Tomorrow – 61% keep more than 6 years
– Less than 4 years will see an increase • More reliability in 2015 • Windshields will last 1-2 years
Today Tomorrow
Cab Interior
• 62% say probably full width cab • 76% say sleepers likely to have bunks • Drivers may be more fit than today • 96% say more electric-powered devices
likely • Sleepers more than 40% of sales
Instrumentation • 76% say OEM’s likely to integrate & eliminate 3rd
party controls, but will not control fleet management
• Multiple round gauges may be normal – >80% expect programmable, flat panel, color, touch
screens • CB’s still may be used • 78% say satellite radio likely to be used • 69% say more steering wheel/column mounted
controls likely
Safety & Driver Assistance
• >80% usage of Lane Departure • >80% radar collision warning/mitigation • >60% usage of blind spot monitors • >40% usage of cameras monitoring driver • Single supplier integration probably
– Yet vertical integration likely
Connected Vehicle
• Vehicle to Infrastructure Communications likely • Toll tags will be replaced, but more toll tags
expected • Vehicle to Vehicle Communications probably • Driverless vehicle platooning a maybe • Wireless communications tractor to trailer likely
Electrical/Electronic • Ethernet likely • 24 Volts is probable • More computers and more data links • Fewer batteries -- maybe • 77% would likely pay for better connectors • All LED lighting absolutely
Service Tools & Technicians
• Engine repair will be somewhat harder • Handheld computers likely to replace carts • Cameras likely to transmit images to
experts • 36% mostly/all service at dealerships • Software tools will be mostly integrated
Roads & Infrastructure
• More tolled highways/bridges • Truck HOV lanes likely • More inner city charges • Investment to rebuild infrastructure likely • Ton-mile tax will likely still be with us • Higher fuel taxes • Probably on-board weighing replaces stations
Regulations • CAFE for trucks will be harder • Longer/heavier vehicles likely allowed • Absolutely more safety regulations • Likely will allow cameras to replace mirrors • Wireless roadside inspection likely • Driver distraction regulations likely • Standard size/weight in Americas maybe • Federal laws superceding state probably
Fleet Management
• OEM’s maybe will control • More toll tags likely
– Tolls paid by system likely • Highly likely to provide driver feedback on
fuel economy/safety • Off duty entertainment and connection to
friends and family likely • Navigation with traffic and re-routing
absolutely
Logistics & Shippers
• 60% say likely 9PM to 6AM deliveries • Intermodal will increase • Electric grid powered vehicles in cities
maybe • Some other form of freight movement?
– 21% no, 39% maybe, 40% more positive
Parts Availability & Sourcing
• More proprietary parts • Purchase 10% dealer only, 45% mostly
dealers, 45% dealer and 3rd party • Service 8% mostly dealer, 79% dealer and
own shop, 13% mostly own shop • Overnight delivery expected
– If not, then 1 day