tmaw year in review and annual awards
DESCRIPTION
TMAW year in review and annual awards. Bill Dennison. November 12 – 13, 2008 U.S. Geological Survey Baltimore, MD. Input to CBP Health and Restoration report. Updates for 2007 –2008 : Water clarity Dissolved oxygen Chlorophyll a. Completed annual communication cycle. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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TMAW year in review and annual awards
Bill Dennison
November 12–13, 2008U.S. Geological Survey
Baltimore, MD
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Input to CBP Health and Restoration report
Updates for 2007–2008:• Water clarity• Dissolved oxygen• Chlorophyll a
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Completed annual communication cycle
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Summer review features prominently on CBP website
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Released 2007 Report Card• 2nd year of the report card
• Wider dissemination
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Generated ecological forecast
Repeat of previous years:
• Anoxia = Poor conditions (1.7 ± 1.27 km3) • Hypoxia = Poor conditions (9.9 km3)
• Microcystis = Low to
moderate severity
Added Prorocentrum forecast
Heroes: Don Scavia, Dave Jasinski, Peter Tango, and Jon Anderson
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Resolved Total Suspended Solids (TSS) issue
• Issue: Discontinuity of statistical properties (i.e. apparent step-trend) observed in the TSS data.
• Outcome:– “No smoking gun”– Likely methodological transition in VA
mainstem sample analysis.
Heroes: Michael Williams, Tish Robertson, and Jeni Keisman
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Explored water clarity decline
Heroes: Claire Buchanan, Bill Romano, Renee Karrh, and Mike Lane
• Decline in mainstem Bay and lower reaches of tributaries
• 1980s: 30 to 40% of goal• 200s: 10 to 20% of goal
• Newsletter underway
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Contributions to Estuarine Research Federation meeting
• Members of TMAW were well-represented at ERF in Providence, RI (Nov 2007)
• Range of topics:– Phytoplankton IBI– Cyanobacteria– Picnoclines– Health index / Indicators, – Water clarity, forecasting etc
Chesapeake Bay Phytoplankton Index of Biotic Integrity by Salinity Regime
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Area W
eig
hte
d P
IBI>
=3
MH\PH TF\OH
Heroes: all of TMAW
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• Facilitated and edited feasibility report for 4D interpolation for Chesapeake Bay
• Designed and programmed fortran module for DO and Chl a criteria assessment for Bay Program’s estuarine water quality model
• Worked collaboratively on a comprehensive review of potential attainment of water clarity thresholds
• Implemented Chesapeake Bay interpolator to calculate hypoxic and anoxic volumes
Additional impacts/projects
Heroes: Jeni Keisman and Jake Goodwin
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Future for TMAWTasks:• More effective feedback to management:
– Finer spatial and temporal scales
– Ability to measure/track incremental improvements
– Redesign monitoring (STAC and MASC feedback)
– Feedback on what BMP working / not working
• Water clarity decline (Long-term trends: Gang of “N”)• Improved communication and dissemination
• regime shift : picoplankton and others• Existing commitments: report card, health and
restoration report
Logistics:• CBP restructure transition• Initiate joint TMAW – Non-tidal workgroup meetings
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Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Tidal
Monitoring
Analysis
Workgroup
Data AnalysisWorkGroup
Darth Maw, T Maw’s
Star Wars brother
Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother
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Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless
Dimwitted AndWithoutGreatness
Darth Maw, T Maw’s
Star Wars brother
Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother
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Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless+
Nontidal
Water
Quality
Workgroup=
MonitoringAnalysisSubCommittee
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Old Chesapeake Bay Program
Totally
Mundane
And
Worthless+
Nobody
With
Quick
Wits=
MakingAtrocious &SillyConclusions
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New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program
Monitoring&Modeling
• Making
• Atrocious &
• Silly
• Conclusions
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New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program
Magnificant&Marvelous
• Making
• Atrocious &
• Silly
• Conclusions
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Once upon a time, there were bunch of
who had of data.
They ed this data
to produce a .
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These scientists were
no and they
figured that they could predict
the future by simply connecting the .
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But it turned out that they told some
and they got from their colleagues, who said
“Are you ?”
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But the of this
forecasting effort was the
science that
resulted.
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2008 Forecast Awards
For the we’re so bad, we quit forecasting logic of JJ Orth,
“Let’s quit while we’re behind SAV
forecast award”
X
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2008 Forecast Awards
For the wide error bar logic of Dave Jasinski,
“Let’s cover all contingencies anoxia
forecast award”
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2008 Forecast Awards
For the can’t get any worse than last year logic of Don Scavia,
“Let’s try, try again hypoxia forecast
award”
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2008 Forecast Awards
For the fuzzy logic of Jon Anderson,
“Let’s roll the fuzzy dice for the Prorocentrum forecast award”
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2008 Forecast Awards
For the no logic of Peter Tango,
“Let’s see if we can get it wrong it every single time forecast award”
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Gnarly Head Award
• Peter Tango
• Routinely attempts to tackle gnarly problems even when he should know better
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Gollywobbler Award
• Jeni Keisman
• Enhancing TMAW capacity all while keeping her dissertation alive
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Herding Cats Award
• Jake Goodwin
• Managing academic and agency personnel who randomly stray off (and sometimes bite or scratch)
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for
precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than
anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering
them to analytical laboratories in a timely manner
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2008 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia sampling teams– For sampling year round in all conditions– For recording and checking data for
precision and accuracy – For collecting more data/person than
anywhere known– For processing samples and delivering
them to analytical laboratories in a timely mannerA
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2008 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data
streams and highlighting issues as they develop
– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for
multiple requests
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Maryland and Virginia data analysts– For recording and checking large data
streams and highlighting issues as they develop
– For managing large and complex database– For analyzing data for status and trends– For delivering data in a timely manner for
multiple requests A
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time
courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Report card team– Analyzing past 20+years of data– Rapid turnaround– Feeding communication team (maps, time
courses, etc.)– Linking Bay health index to land use– Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund A
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line
graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell
stories
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Communication team– Media event planning and execution– Quality graphics and printed materials – Developing web materials including on line
graphics– Help scientists frame questions and tell
storiesA
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing
quality– For producing multiple products throughout the
year– For recording and checking data for precision and
accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge
amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation
about Chesapeake Bay
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2007 Report Card Awards
• Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams– For accelerating data analyses without losing
quality– For producing multiple products throughout the
year– For recording and checking data for precision and
accuracy – For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge
amounts of data– For effectively elevating the public conversation
about Chesapeake Bay A+
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Group Photo