tm 5-1 copyright © 1998 addison wesley longman, inc. chapter 5 a first look at macroeconomics...
TRANSCRIPT
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TM 5-1Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
CHAPTER 5A First Look at
Macroeconomics
CHAPTER 5A First Look at
MacroeconomicsChapter 22 in EconomicsChapter 22 in EconomicsChapter 22 in EconomicsChapter 22 in Economics
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TM 5-2Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives
• Describe the origins of macroeconomics and the problems it deals with
• Describe the long-term trends and short-terms fluctuations in economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and government and international deficits
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TM 5-3Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives (cont.)
• Explain why economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and deficits matter
• Identify the macroeconomic policy challenges and describe the tools available for meeting them
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TM 5-4Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives
• Describe the origins of macroeconomics and the problems it deals with
• Describe the long-term trends and short-terms fluctuations in economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and government and international deficits
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TM 5-5Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• Modern macroeconomics emerged during the Great Depression.
• People began to doubt the free market economy.
• John Maynard Keynes, in 1936, published The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
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TM 5-6Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• Macroeconomic Problems
1) Economic Growth
2) Unemployment
3) Inflation
4) Deficits
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TM 5-7Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals
• Keynes focused on the short-term primarily• He felt the depression was caused by insufficient
private spending
• Government should increase its spending
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TM 5-8Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals
• Long-term consequences were virtually disregarded• “In the long run, we’re all dead”
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TM 5-9Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• Short-Term Versus Long-Term Goals
• Today, macroeconomics is concerned with:• Long-term economic growth and inflation
• Short-term business fluctuations and unemployment
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TM 5-10Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Origins and Issues of Macroeconomics
• The Road Ahead
• The focus of macroeconomics has shifted:• Depression
• Inflation of the 1970’s
• International economics of today
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TM 5-11Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives
• Describe the origins of macroeconomics and the problems it deals with
• Describe the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and government and international deficits
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TM 5-12Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth
• Economic growth is the expansion of the economy’s production possibilities.
• Measured by real gross domestic product (Real GDP)
• The value of the total production of all the nation’s farms, factories, shops, and offices linked back to the prices of a single year (1992)
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TM 5-13Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth in theUnited States
• The Growth of Potential GDP
• When an economy’s labor, capital, land, and entrepreneurial ability are fully employed
• Real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP
• Growth slowed during the 1970s
• Productivity growth slowdown
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TM 5-14Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth in theUnited States
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TM 5-15Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth in theUnited States
• Fluctuations Around Potential GDP
• The business cycle is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movement in production.
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TM 5-16Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth in theUnited States
• Phases of the Business Cycle
• Recession• Period during which real GDP decreases for two
successive quarters
• Expansion• Period during which real GDP increases
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TM 5-17Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth in theUnited States
• Turning Points
• Peak• Expansion ends, recession begins
• Trough• Recession ends, expansion begins
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TM 5-18Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
The Most Recent U.S. Business Cycle
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TM 5-19Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Long-Term Economic Growthin the United States
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TM 5-20Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth Aroundthe World
• Real GDP per person
• The growth rate of real GDP divided by the population is used to compare growth rates over time and across countries.
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TM 5-21Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth Aroundthe World
• Growth rates in the U.S., Germany, and Japan have features that are distinct
• Similar productivity growth slowdowns
• Similar business cycles
• Different long-term trends in potential GDP
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TM 5-22Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Economic Growth inThree Large Economies
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TM 5-23Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Growth Rates Around the World
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TM 5-24Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives (cont.)
• Explain why economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and deficits matter
• Identify the macroeconomic policy challenges and describe the tools available for meeting them
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TM 5-25Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Benefits and Costs ofEconomic Growth
• Benefits
• Expanded production possibilities• health care
• medical research
• space exploration
• roads
• environmental improvements (if resources are devoted to solving environmental problems)
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TM 5-26Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Benefits and Costs ofEconomic Growth
• Costs
1) Foregone consumption
2) Depletion of natural resources
3) Increased pollution
4) More frequent job and location changes
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TM 5-27Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Jobs and Unemployment
• Jobs
• In 1996, 127 million people had jobs.• An increase of 20 million over 1985 and 23 million
over 1975
• On average, 1.8 million new jobs are created every year
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TM 5-28Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Jobs and Unemployment
• Unemployment
• On average, 7 million people are unemployed in the U.S.
• Unemployed worker
• One who does not have a job but is available for work, is willing to work, and has made some effort to find work within the previous four weeks
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TM 5-29Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Jobs and Unemployment
• Labor Force
• Sum of the people who are unemployed and the people who are employed
• Unemployment Rate
• The percentage of the labor force who are unemployed
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TM 5-30Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Jobs and Unemployment
• Discouraged Worker
• A person who does not have a job, is available for work, and is willing to work but who has given up the effort to find work
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TM 5-31Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Jobs and Unemployment
• The unemployment rate may be misleading because:
• Discouraged workers are excluded
• Part-time workers who want full-time jobs are considered employed
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TM 5-32Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Unemployment in theUnited States
• Important Features
1) The unemployment rate during the Depression peaked in 1933 at 25%.
2) After 1934, the unemployment rate overstated the true rate because
it counts the people who had make-work jobs.
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TM 5-33Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Unemployment in theUnited States
• Important Features
3) Unemployment rates have reached high levels in recent years during
recessions.
4) The unemployment rate never falls to zero.
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TM 5-34Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Unemployment in theUnited States
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TM 5-35Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Unemployment inIndustrial Economies
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TM 5-36Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Why Unemploymentis a Problem
• Lost Production and Incomes
• Lost Human Capital
• Prolonged unemployment can hurt a person’s job prospects.
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TM 5-37Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation
• Inflation is a process of rising prices.
• The inflation rate is measured as a percentage change in the average level of prices or the price level.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• Deflation is negative inflation, the price level is falling.
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TM 5-38Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation
• In December 1995, the CPI was 153.5 and in December 1996 it was 158.6.
How would the inflation rate for 1996 be calculated?
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TM 5-39Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation
• The inflation rate for 1996 was:
Inflation = 158.6 – 153.5
153.5
= 3.3%
100
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TM 5-40Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation in the United States
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TM 5-41Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation Around the World
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TM 5-42Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Inflation Around the World
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TM 5-43Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Is Inflation a Problem?
• Predictability of inflation rates creates problems
• High, unpredictable inflation causes resources to be diverted to predicting inflation rates.
• This is a wasteful use of resources
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TM 5-44Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Is Inflation a Problem?
• Hyperinflation
• Inflation in excess of 50% per month
• Workers are paid daily• Money loses value rapidly
• Workers spend their incomes quickly
• 1994• Zaire — 76% per month
• Brazil — 40% per month
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TM 5-45Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Is Inflation a Problem?
• Policies that reduce the inflation rate increase the unemployment rate.
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TM 5-46Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Deficits
• A government budget deficit exists if the federal government spends more than it collects in taxes.
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TM 5-47Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Government Budget and International Deficits
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TM 5-48Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Deficits
• An international deficit exists if our imports exceed our exports.
• Current Account
• Our exports minus our imports; but it also takes interest payment paid to and received from the rest of the world into account.
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TM 5-49Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Government Budget and International Deficits
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TM 5-50Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Do Deficits Matter?
• Governments must borrow if it spends more than it earns in tax revenue.
• If the borrowed funds are used to purchase assets that earn a profit, the investment may be sound.
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TM 5-51Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Learning Objectives (cont.)
• Explain why economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and deficits matter
• Identify the macroeconomic policy challenges and describe the tools available for meeting them
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TM 5-52Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools
• Policy Challenges
1) Boost economic growth
2) Stabilize the business cycle
3) Reduce unemployment
4) Keep inflation low
5) Reduce the government and international deficits
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TM 5-53Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools
• Policy Tools
1) Fiscal policy• Making changes in taxes and government spending
• Long term growth• Smooth the business cycle
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TM 5-54Copyright © 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc.
Macroeconomic Policy Challenges and Tools
• Policy Tools
2) Monetary policy• Changing interest rates and the amount of money in
the economy• Control inflation• Smooth business cycle