times’ harvest, isp 3360 winter 2005, section 001 class #4: april 15, 2005

Times’ Harvest, ISP 3360

Winter 2005, Section 001

Class #4: April 15, 2005

4/15/05 Time's Harvest, Class 4 2

Beware of Futures Studies!

• “The Future isn’t what it used to be.”

• Why don't you ever see the headline "Psychic Wins Lottery"?


Agenda

• Finishing up• More unchat?• The Future / Quibbles• From the readings…• Trends• Issues• CULMA?• SET


Finishing Up

• ISP 3360 ends next week• Get work in to count for regular grade• Final for Directed Study is in two weeks –

4/29, here. Open book, bring ALL books.• X Vs I Vs E for non-starters – important

choiceo Get in touch with me and let me know what you

want. I can stay after class.


unchat?

• Erich Friebel asked about another unchat session to try more optionso Interest?o I could do this next Friday evening, or Saturday

afternoono Rotating moderator by voting

• For “outside” use, contact Bill Warterso [email protected], 313-993-7482 (M, T, T)


the future

• Indeterminate & unknowableo We can see trends but trends change also

• Scenarioso One classification: probable, possible,

preferable

• Active – try to create your preferable future• Passive – try to adapt to probable future, or

recognize preferable when it happens


Quibbles• Hunter-gatherer, agricultural and industrial

societies still exist. If fact, they account for the large majority of earth’s populationo Also within each stage, but transformed – hand-

made bootso Great variety within a stage – style, culture


Quibbles

• Many wrong guesses about the futureo Early guesses about the role of computers

• Number

• Use

• Plateaus or continuous change?o Could be a combination

From the readings…


The Third Wave

• Increase in autonomy• Splintering of society• Disappearance of a common reality• Democracy ceases to function

o Groups “referee” to mediate conflicto Are there signs of this?o Three branches of government (list) – which

one best mediates conflict?


The Third Wave

• Table of characteristics for social sectors in agricultural and industrial societies – Pp 1 & 2 of agenda for unchat class

o Similar table Pg 16 Futuring – extends to Cybernetic age

• “Cybernetic” – relating to automatic control• Naming the future – why?

o Can one sector change all by itself?• Applied to Iraq – Joanne – looking better just now• More important – China (economic Vs political)• Backsliding - Russia


The Third Wave

• Conflicto “Indust-reality”o Predictions about the end of civilization


In the Age of the Smart Machine• Automating Vs Informating

o Autonomy Vs controlo Today, “empowerment” – rapid change, learn

from mistakes - Vs top-down controlo Informating – team-oriented, interdisciplinary

• Work of the body Vs intellective work• Pg 414: “Using the technology to its full

potential means using the man to his full potential”


Futuring

• “We are all futurists” – we have no choice• Exploring unknown territory – even

imperfect information is valuableo Imagining is preparing

• Methods (Chpt 6)o Imagining – scenarios, simulationso Seeing all connections – many methods

• Progress has been real


Futuring

• Do we have obligations to future generations?o Helping young people

Trends…


A third wave of science

• First: physical world (dead) - theno Started with Isaac Newton, 1687, Principia

Mathematica Philosphia Naturalis (“Principia”)

o Threatened society, predecessors harassed, at least one killed (Giordano Bruno)

• Earth no longer the center of the Universe

• Questioned religious order



• First: physical world - nowo Dominant influence on technology and

economy, especially after WWIo Build virtual product before building test

products or going into productiono Science driving technology – “knowledge

society”



• First: physical world - futureo Open questions about large-scale structure and

fate of the universeo Many questions in Geology openo Questions on atomic and sub-atomic scales

open



• Second: living world - theno Started with Charles Darwin, 1859, The Origin

of Specieso Needed cellular biology of early 20th century

(chromosomes) for full scientific acceptanceo Controversial in society

• Questions central role for humans

• Natural origins for many life forms



• Second: living world - nowo Broad outlines of life are known

• Can control many life processes, e.g. fertility

o Basis of much technology and economic valueo Many details still unknown

• We rely heavily on natural processes that we do not understand in detail and certainly cannot duplicate

o Still controversial in society



• Second: living world - futureo Making progress on many diseaseso Subject to human, animal and plant epidemics

• Mobility• Monoculture

o Genetic manipulation• Historical – breeding (within species)• Current – GMO (transfer genes across species)• Future - ?



• Third (emerging): cognitive science – how our brains, on a mechanistic neuronal level, produce our minds (intellect and emotions)o Currently lacks foundational work but see

Consilience (E.O. Wilson), The Blank Slate (Stephen Pinker) and others

o Should be equally as controversial• Differences where democracy sees equality

• Excesses will occur (are occurring)


The Human Footprint

• General: humans pressing earth’s ability to support us, trend is increasing

• Includes pollution (harmful waste products). Example: autos in developed worldo Individually, extremely clean now, but

• More of them

• More miles per year

o Collectively, a problem


The Human Footprint

• Resourceso Non-renewable

• Expect to run out of petroleum ~ 2050, but increasing scarcity before then

• Global Warming (GW) and fossil fuels– GW projections depend upon computer models

– Evidence and scientific consensus is strong, we are now seeing first effects, in line with computer models

– Society is coming to accept limits of some type on fossil fuels

– Damage to natural systems


The Human Footprint

• Resourceso Renewable

• Water scarce and/or unsafe in many areas

• Desertification

• Approaching limits on amount of arable land

• Deforestation

• Over fishing, especially whales and large fish

• Michigan’s experience – Lewis and Clark, furs, lumber


The Human Footprint

• Ecosystem Serviceso Services the natural world provides that

humans cannot replace at this time• Clean air, water, soil

• Soil fertility

• Photosynthesis (that’s food, by the way!)

• Climate regulation

• Plant fertilization

• Etc. (approximately 30)


The Human Footprint• Ecosystem Services

o Millenium Ecosystem Assessment• http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx

• International effort, assessments complete for 24 ecosystem services, 15 (60%) are in danger

• “… approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth … are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years.”

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx





The Human Footprint

• Factors that will degrade this situationo World population going from 6 Billion to 9

(50% increase)o Development of underdeveloped world (500%)o Our own increasing use of resourceso A safety factor?o Possible that we will need to scale back to 10%

of current per-person intensity• Probably unacceptable – we want more, not less


The Human Footprint

• A possible way out – engineering nature, virtual and interior liveso Full use of GMO for food – very controversialo Use communications technology in existing and

to-be-developed ways to decrease use of resources

• Virtual travel, conferencing, vacationing

o Living more in our interior worlds, less “stuff”• Plus technological convergence, smart use of energy


Interior Life

• Celebrityo Personal identificationo Second chances

• Personal performance – karaoke, jokeoke

• Reality TV

• Living your interior life – cosmetic surgery, Lasik, baldness, tooth whitening


Information and Knowledge

• Information becoming a basis for wealtho Land was the basis for agricultural societyo Ownership of means of production for industrial

• Ownership of information becoming importanto Internet, world wide web, and computers o Music downloadingo Patent, copyright lawo Open Source, IBM releasing technologies


Family Changes

• Sub-nuclear family – single parenting

• Temporary arrangements – “marriage light” in Europe, e.g. civil unions

• Blended families

• Domestic Dads


Disintermediation• Disintermediation

o Intermediary – distributor

o Books printed on demando Music and videoo Job wanted ads in newspapers Vs Internet


Issues• Individual responsibility Vs “safety net”

• “Race to the bottom” Vs “floating all boats”

• International governanceo Autonomy of national governments not

absoluteo Coordination to solve problems


Issues• Privacy, identity, control over personal

informationo DNA banks

• Will US pull back from innovation?• Gender identity / roles• Free innovation Vs social controls?

o Would controls (e.g. making human cloning illegal) work?

• Interplay of interdisciplinarity and disciplinarity

Questions? Comments?

I had fun!

CULMA?

My handout


Student Evaluation of Teaching

• Information you need:o Course: ISP 3360o Call Number: 25625

• Can anyone volunteer to turn the forms in?

• Class is done when this is done


University Hierarchy

• Board of Governors (elected)• President (Reid)

• Provost (Barrett, chief academic officer)

• College (CULMA), Dean (Kay)

• Department (DIS, Henry)• Faculty, classes, etc.

times’ harvest, isp 3360 winter 2005, section 001 class #4: april 15, 2005

Documents

culturetimes harvest

settimes harvest

trendstimes harvest

realtimes harvest

potentialtimes harvest

happenstimes harvest

combinationtimes harvest

readingstimes harvest