timber trade and the eutr - thuenen.de09.10.2018 slide 2 holger weimar, georg becher timber trade...
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09.10.2018 slide 1 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics
Hamburg, 09.10.2018
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber trade and the conservation of forests - Five years EUTR
09.10.2018 slide 2 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Billi
on U
S Do
llar (
nom
inal
)
Papierhalbwaren (Zellstoff, Holzschliff, Papier, Pappe)
Papierfertigwaren (Papierwaren, Druckerzeugnisse, regen. Zellulose)
Holzfertigwaren (Holzwaren, Möbel)
Holzhalbwaren (Schnittholz, Schwellen, Furniere, Holzwerkstoffe)
Roh- und Restholz
Roundwood and residues
Semi-finished wood products (sawnwood, veneer, panels)
Finished wood products (incl. furniture)
Finished paper products (articles of p+p, printed matter, reg. cellulose)
Semi-finished paper products (pulp, paper+paperboard)
Trade by commodity groups *) Wood and wood based products
Source: UN Comtrade, own calculations
Global trade with wood products*
09.10.2018 slide 3 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Global trade with wood products* Trade of world regions 2014 (all wood products, in roundwood eqivalent)
Source: UN Comtrade-Database Own calculations
Data describes shares of total global trade: 1.94 billion cubic metres roundwood equivalent Displayed are flows with a minimum share of 0.5%
Intratrade
Extratrade
09.10.2018 slide 4 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
m³ r
ound
woo
d eq
uiva
lent
(rw
e)
Semi-finished paper products Finished wood products incl. furnitureFinished paper products Semi-finished wood productsRoundwood & Residues
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
EU-trade with wood products European trade balance 2013-2016 (in roundwood equivalents, rwe)
Imports Exports Balance (=Exp-Imp)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016
• Total trade balance in 2016 (in mill. rwe): Imports 160, Exports 205, Net Exp. 45 • Imports into EU increased, total exports are on constant level
Source: Eurostat, own calculations
09.10.2018 slide 5 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
m³ r
ound
woo
d eq
uiva
lent
(rw
e)
Semi-finished paper products Finished wood products incl. furnitureFinished paper products Semi-finished wood productsRoundwood & Residues
EU-trade with wood products European imports 2013-2016 (in quantity and value: rwe, wfe, Euro)
Imports in roundwood eq. Imports in wood fiber eq. Imports in Euro
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
million m³ wfe
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016
billion Euro
Source: Eurostat, own calculations
• Measured in rwe semi-finished prod. play major role, in wfe its roundwood & res. • If looking at values, finished products are of highest importance
09.10.2018 slide 6 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
mill
ion
m³ r
ound
woo
d eq
uiva
lent
(rw
e)
Semi-finished paper products Finished wood products incl. furnitureFinished paper products Semi-finished wood productsRoundwood & Residues
EU-trade with wood products Market coverage of EU-imports by EUTR
Imports in roundwood eq. Imports in wood fiber eq. Imports in Euro
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2014 2015 2016
million m³ wfe
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016
billion Euro
Source: Eurostat, own calculations
! But not all wood products are covered by EUTR • About 3/4 of all commodities codes of wood products are covered by EUTR
09.10.2018 slide 7 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
EU-trade with wood products Market coverage of European imports by EUTR
• Coverage ratio decreases with increasing processing stage • Interestingly, for finished products coverage ratio increased in the last years.
However, this has only minor impact on total coverage rate
2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 in % Roundwood eq. Wood fiber eq. Euro
Roundwood & Residues 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Semi-finished wood products 87 91 89 87 91 94 92 90 95 96 96 96
Semi-finished paper products 91 92 92 92 91 92 92 92 98 98 98 97
Finished wood products incl. furniture 63 68 69 70 65 66 67 69 58 58 58 58
Finished paper products 53 54 56 58 57 58 60 62 40 41 42 43
Total 88 90 89 89 92 93 93 93 74 74 75 75
09.10.2018 slide 8 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber Trade and the EUTR Conclusions (1)
Timber trade and coverage ratio
In contrast to a declining global trade, imports to the EU increased in the last years.
The market coverage of imported EUTR-products increased slightly. But basically it’s stable at a level of ∼90% in quantity units or ∼75% in monetary units. Especially imports of finished EUTR-products increased compared to finished non-EUTR-products.
→ Despite these descriptive findings a more thorough analysis is necessesary to detect possible impacts of the implemenation of the EUTR on the (import) market.
09.10.2018 slide 9 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber Trade and the EUTR Analysis of time series
Data used
Monthly EUROSTAT Data on EU imports ranging from January 1988 to August 2016 344 months (t = 344)
Separate analyses of time series for
• non-tropical wood products listed in EUTR
• wood products listed in EUTR and classified as tropical
Research question
Can the enforcement of EUTR in March 2013 be considered as a legislative intervention event in the time series i.e. are the time series before and after EUTR the ‘same’ or did the enforcement of EUTR generate ‘different’ time series ?
09.10.2018 slide 10 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber Trade and the EUTR Analysis of time series
Methods: applied time series analysis
• Time domain: modelling the long term variation (trend)
• Frequency domain: detecting the periodic behaviour of time series
• Intervention analysis: examining quantitative impact possibly caused by a (legislative) measure
09.10.2018 slide 11 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Analysis of time series Results (1): time domain, tropical wood products imported by EU
Peculiarities: • initially stagnant imports
• different trends und
amplitudes (oscillations) • ‚hidden‘ Periods • negative trend in
2008/2009
• ‚restlessness‘ after enforcement of EUTR
Qua
ntity
impo
rted
[Milli
on to
nnes
]
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
January 1988 to August 2016: months 1 to 3440 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 315 350
Imports EU - World: only EUTR products (tropical woods)
March 2013: EUTR enforced
2008
09.10.2018 slide 12 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Analysis of time series Results (2): EUTR effects with non-tropical wood products
Before EUTR (t = 49) After EUTR (t = 42)
In time domain visible and significant: trend with linear and logarithmic term linear trend
In frequency domain the half-yearly periodic behaviour of imports occur in both segments but the annual period existing before EUTR remains afterwards only roughly : 6/12 6/10/11
Ord
inat
e
0.00
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.21
0.24
0.27
0.30
Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
'
Ord
inat
e
0.00
0.09
0.18
0.27
0.36
0.45
0.54
0.63
0.72
0.81
0.90
Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
'
The Intervention model shows a significant increase of imports after EUTR
Qua
ntity
impo
rted
[Milli
on to
nnes
]
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
February 2009 to February 2013: months 254 to 302250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305
Qua
ntity
impo
rted
[Milli
on to
nnes
]
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
March 2013 to August 2016: months 303 to 344300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350
09.10.2018 slide 13 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Analysis of time series Results (3): EUTR effects with tropical wood products
Ord
inat
e
0.000
0.004
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.020
0.024
0.028
0.032
0.036
0.040
Period2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
'
Ord
inat
e
0.000
0.024
0.048
0.072
0.096
0.120
0.144
0.168
0.192
0.216
0.240
Period2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42
'
In time domain recognizable and significant: falling trend no trend
In frequency domain the EUTR ‚destroyed‘ the periodicity of imports: four monthly periods no periods
The intervention model that ‚works‘ quantitatively does not show any significance of EUTR
Before EUTR (t = 39) After EUTR (t = 42)
Qua
ntity
impo
rted
[Milli
on to
nnes
]
0.24
0.29
0.34
0.39
0.44
0.49
0.54
0.59
0.64
December 2009 to February 2013: months 264 to 302260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305
Qua
ntity
impo
rted
[Milli
on to
nnes
]
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
March 2013 to August 2016: months 303 to 344300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350
09.10.2018 slide 14 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber Trade and the EUTR Conclusions (2)
Non-tropical wood products
The time series of imports of non tropical wood products have shown a cyclical behaviour with half-yearly and yearly periods. It occurs in both segments of time series i.e. before and after EUTR.
From theoretical point of view (pattern of the autocorrelation function) the segments of the time series before and after EUTR are the ‚same‘.
However, new is the significant linear increase of imports. Whether it is related to EUTR is not certain. Altogether the time series of EU imports of non- tropical wood products has not (so far) been disturbed by EUTR.
09.10.2018 slide 15 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Timber Trade and the EUTR Conclusions (3)
Tropical wood products
There is no evidence that EUTR caused the imports of tropical wood products by the EU from non-EU countries to decrease. However, the EUTR generated a different time series as that before: it does not show any trend and there are no cycles existing before.
Cautiously interpreted this may mean that caused by EUTR the trade with tropical wood products changed qualitatively: it left the previous pattern of the time series and became ‚restless‘ .
It may be an indication of a ‘wait-and-see’ attitude of importers caused by lack of implementing provisions to obey EUTR, uncertainty about possible fines etc.
09.10.2018 slide 16 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Thünen Institute of International Forestry and Forest Economics Leuschnerstr. 91 21031 Hamburg, Germany Web: www.thuenen.de
The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries – Thünen Institute in brief – consists of 14 specialized institutes that carry out research and provide policy advice in the fields of economy, ecology and technology.
Hamburg, 09.10.2018
Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Holger Weimar, Dr. Georg Becher Tel: +49 (0)40 73962-314; -142 Mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
09.10.2018 slide 17 Holger Weimar, Georg Becher
Timber Trade and the EUTR
Annex
Sources:
Eurostat: Internationaler Trade, annual data (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/NavTree_prod/everybody/BulkDownloadListing?sort=1&dir=comext%2F2014S2%2Fdata)
Eurostat: Monthly trade data (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database)
UNComtrade, United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: (http://comtrade.un.org).
Weimar H, Janzen N, Dieter M (2015): Market coverage of wood imports by the EU Timber Regulation. Hamburg: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut, 63 p, Thünen Working Paper 45, DOI:10.3220/WP1440577266000 (https://www.thuenen.de/media/publikationen/thuenen-workingpaper/ThuenenWorkingPaper_45.pdf)