Timber Products Output Carbon Accounting Christopher Woodall Group Leader Staff Timber Products: Ron Piva (analyst), David Haugen (analyst), Brian Walters (analyst/programmer), Bill Luppold (economist) National Carbon Accounting: James Smith (scientist), Michael Nichols (programmer), Grant Domke (scientist) State Responsibilities: North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri TPO: 2015 Accomplishments National database now operational at MCI 75% of Northern TPO database copied over to National TPO database NRS 2013 and 2014 data are being processed and loaded 80 Harvest utilization jobs completed TPO reports In Progress: Michigan and Minnesota timber industry reports for 2010 Missouri timber industry: an assessment of timber product output and use, 2012 Indiana timber industry: an assessment of timber product output and use, 2013 Wisconsin timber industry: an assessment of timber product output and use, 2013 Pulpwood production in the Northern Region, 2014 TPO reports for Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota Streamlined TPO Reports Streamlined TPO Reports contd More rapid publication Tables provided via pdf and online Efficiency Movement toward forest inventory reporting approaches (reduce publication $ and increase digital transfer) National TPO Database Moved from Development servers to MCI on 03/25/2015 Began moving data into MCI on 04/07/2015 The data entry system is working with continued development. The North is completing data entry for Expected completion by 12/01/ date is being entered. Expected completion by 03/01/ % of Northern historical data has been copied from Northern TPO data base to the National TPO database StateStatus ConnecticutPreparing for 2015 data collection DelawarePreparing for 2015 data collection Illinois Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database IndianaEntering 2013 mills into database, processing, and reporting IowaPreparing for 2015 data collection Kansas Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database MainePreparing for 2015 data collection MarylandPreparing for 2015 data collection MassachusettsPreparing for 2015 data collection Michigan Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database Minnesota Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database MissouriPreparing for 2015 data collection Current State Status Mill Surveys (Continued) StateStatus Nebraska Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database New HampshirePreparing for 2015 data collection North Dakota Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database New JerseyPreparing for 2015 data collection New YorkPreparing for 2015 data collection OhioPreparing for 2015 data collection PennsylvaniaProcessing the 2012 data collection Rhode IslandPreparing for 2015 data collection South Dakota Completing data collection for 2014 and entering into National database VermontPreparing for 2015 data collection West VirginiaPreparing for 2015 data collection Wisconsin Entering 2013 mills into database, processing, and reporting Current State Status Mill Surveys (continued) Harvest Utilization Studies Northern Utilization Specifics Northern study based on utilization regions that have similar species and product mixes About 1,000 harvest utilizations sites will be sampled across the North over the next 7 years 7-year cycle across region in concert with Phase 2 Current Northern Utilization Effort 82 sites have been completed 2016 TPO Goals Complete 2013 and 2014 TPO reports Get 2015 TPO reports published by end of 2016 Full adoption of national dbase for all TPO work Complete National TPO database documentation Complete utilization sites Explore improved data distribution/analysis efforts National TPO A National TPO Stakeholder meeting was held Oct. 27 and 28, 2015: Identify current and future information needs Identify knowledge gaps between current TPO information and identified needs Discuss annual TPO sample-based approaches and estimation Identify analytical options (spatial and tabular) Discuss data collection issues and ways to promote higher response rates National TPO Single federal surveyengage social scientist National mill list Test various sample designs (PPS) Identify larger companies: Quarterly updates Marketing strategy (enable higher participation) Work with EIA and Commerce TPO Questions?? Carbon Accounting Emerging Technology Airborne laser scanning Landsat series Terrestrial laser scanning Big data Digital data delivery Open source stats Trait-based ecology Etc Terrain Aspect Canopy Heights Red Edge G-LiHT 300 m swath Hungry Mouths 2014 Farm Bill US Signatories to UNFCCC: Follow IPCC guidance RPA: Reporting Biomass and Carbon FAO FRA Montreal Process C & I Chiefs Climate Change Scorecard Presidents Climate Action Plan General Message Growing Requests for Carbon/Biomass Information Need for Consistent Estimates (consistent Storylines) Expanding Set of Policy Questions Greater Scrutiny Demonstrate Continuous Improvement Misha The Hammer Where Do We Need to Head? Move annual inventory backwards and forwards in time Documentation of New Approach Improvements Paradigm Use of in situ plots Alignment of NGHGI with other Domestic/International reports Incorporation of emerging science Flexibility to address attribution and land use change Alignment between C baseline and projections Components of New Framework Land use change module Uses pre-field FIA land use information Stand dynamics module Grows stands over short time steps through stand age matrix with associated changes in carbon densities by pool Operates at regional scale and summarized at national level Growth and land use dynamics parametrized at regional scales Framework enables short term projections (~15 years to match US commitment periods), but also backcast ~10 years to meet UNFCCC guidelines Coulston et al Scientific Reports Continue Incorporation of In Situ Observations Soil organic carbon and Litter model from P3 data Understory vegetation model from P3/P2+ data Belowground model with climate coefficients Foliage model from legacy data (natl vol/biomass study) Russell, M.B., et al Climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon in forests of the United States. Carbon Balance and Mgmt Clough, B.J., et al. In Press. Comparing tree foliage biomass models fitted to a multi-species, felled-tree biomass dataset for the United States. Ecological Modelling Russell, M.B., et al Quantifying understory vegetation in the US Lake States: a proposed framework to inform regional forest carbon stocks. Forestry P3: Litter Carbon Random forests model integrates in situ measurements of litter from P3 with climate variables Uncertainty resulting from the sample-based estimates of the model parameters and observed residual variability was included Domke, G.M., Perry, C.H., Smith, J.E., Walters, B.F., Woodall, C.W. In review. The litter carbon sink in forests of the United States is significantly smaller than previously reported. Intended outlet: Science of Total Environment. Interior AKs Missing Carbon How much managed forest? million ha of forestland (~68% of interior forest) How large of a carbon stock? 7,700 to 15,100 Tg C Equivalent to 37% of total forest C stocks in coterminous US Genet et al. In Prep. Synthesis of the role of dynamic driving factors (climate, fire, permafrost dynamics, and forest management) on the historical and projected vegetation and soil organic carbon dynamics in upland ecosystems of Alaska. Intended outlet: Ecological Applications. McGuire et al. In Prep. A synthesis of terrestrial carbon balance of Alaska and projected changes in the 21st Century: Implications for climate policy and carbon management at local, regional, national, and international scales. Intended outlet: Ecological Applications. Saatchi et al. In Prep. Distribution of Carbon Stocks in Managed and Unmanaged Forests of Alaska. Intended outlet: Carbon Balance and Management. Leverage FIAS Plot Network for LUC Analysis: Forest and Nonforest Forest Land Use Increases Despite Potential Reductions in Cover Woodall et al. In Review. Ecosystems ~37% of Eastern US Forest C Sink Strength is from LUC Woodall et al Scientific Reports Impactful Projections Coulston et al Scientific Reports The New US Forest C Baseline Woodall et al GTR Attribution to Disturbance Woodall et al GTR Data Distribution forestcarbonx.umn.edu 2016 NGHGI: The Clock Never Stops Submit to EPA Soon Data from FIA through Summer 2015 Public Review in Late Winter Published mid-April 2016 FS GTR available at the kegs Final Carbon Thoughts Growing Need for Carbon Information Means Maturing our Accounting Approach Refine stock estimation by pool Improve LUC, baselines, and attribution Annual inventory system moved through time Informs expanding set of Forest Policy Issues (e.g., Land Use Planning and Carbon Cycle) Annual Forest Inventory Program is CenterPoint and Future of Terrestrial Carbon Accounting in US Leaving FIA after 15 Years Project Leader of NRS07 (Northern Silviculture: ME to MN) January 1 Grant Domke new Carbon/TPO Group Leader Bringing FIA business model to greater R&D Scaling Experimental Forests to Population via FIA Working with Stakeholders for Impactful Research Carbon management science Moving to Durham, NH Questions????