tim lugo blockbuster opportunities in the dermatology pipeline

34
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the document. William Blair & Company, L.L.C. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as a single factor in making an investment decision. Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline Tim Lugo +1 415 248 2870 [email protected] 1 John Boyle, Ph.D. +1 212 245 6509 [email protected] Lachlan Hanbury-Brown +1 312 364 8125 Lhanbury- [email protected] January 12, 2020

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Page 1: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of the document.William Blair & Company, L.L.C. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in itsresearch reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as asingle factor in making an investment decision.

BlockbusterOpportunitiesintheDermatologyPipeline

[email protected]

1

JohnBoyle,[email protected]

[email protected]

January12,2020

Page 2: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Partneringwithclientstodeliverexecutionexcellencethroughasuiteofservicesandnearlyacenturyofexpertise

PremierIndependentGlobalInvestmentBank

(1) AsofSeptember30,2019.3

ASnapshotofWilliamBlair

FirmOverview 2019ECMResults 2019M&AResults 2019FirmResults

Locations

1935Founded

20OfficesWorldwide

100%OwnedbyEmployedPartners

$59BDealValue

30%+Cross-BorderTransactions

>$1BRevenue

~250IBTransactions

$85BAUM(1)

134Transactions

~1,500Employees

91Transactions

~70%HealthcareOfferings

ExecutedasBookrunner

~20%IPOMarketShare

$41BCapitalRaised

NorthAmericaAtlantaBaltimoreBostonCharlotteChicagoNewYorkSanFrancisco

EuropeAmsterdamFrankfurtLondonTelAvivZurich

EastAsiaHoChiMinhCityHongKongSeoulShanghaiSingaporeTokyo

IndiaMumbai

AustraliaSydney

Page 3: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

2019IndustryTrends

Page 4: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

DermatologySuccessesin20191.LargeStrategicDeals

- Abbvie +Allergan(“Abbv-Gan”)~$63Bmegadeal- AbbVie’splantoseparatethecashpayaestheticsbusinessintoaseparatebusinessunit

2.ProductFocusedDealMakingContinues- AmgenacquisitionofOtezla fromCelgene

- $13.4BdealforanoralcompoundwhichIwouldsayhasprettymodestefficacyandbroughtin$1.96Binrevenuein2019

- Highlightsopportunityforsafecompoundsthatcaneffectivelyslotinbeforebiologicsinpsoriasis- Asastandalonedealitwouldhavebeenoneofthelargestsingleassetdealsinbiotech

- XBiotechdealwithJohnson&Johnsonforbermekimab- $750MacquisitionforPhaseIIassetindevelopmentforHidradenitisSuppurativa andAtopicDermatitis

- EliLillyAcquiringDermira for$1.1billion(announced1/10/2020),gainingaccesstolebrikizumab (IL-13)inatopicdermatitisaswellasthemarketedQbrexa forhyperhidrosis

3.StrongProductLaunches- Skyrizi fromAbbVie

4.Clinicalsuccesses

- Lebrikizumab (Dermira)- Ligelizumab (Roche)- SB206(Novan)

- KB103(Krystal)- PRN1008(Principia)

Page 5: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

KeyQuestionsAroundDermatologyPipeline1.Newproductdifferentiationfromstandardofcare

- Eskata fromAclaris hadissuesinthemarketaround“realworld”useanddifferentiationfromstandardofcare

- Businesscaseneedstobestrongintheaestheticsworld(howdoyoucompeteagainsttheprofitabilityofBotox?)

2.Clinicalresultsvs.“realworld”use- AllerganhadsomeissueswithassetstheyacquiredinthepastthreeyearswithKybella revenueof$34millionposted

in2019andawritedownof$1.6billionbackinJanuary

3.Howwillyoucommercialize?- We’vealsoseensomeincrediblystronglaunchesinthedermatologyspacefromcompanieswithanestablished

dermatologypresencesuchasAbbVie’sSkyrizi

- Weseepotentialpathwaystocommercialsuccessinindicationswithsevereunmetmedicalneed- KB103,agenetherapyfordystrophicepidermolysisbullosa(“EB”)

WeseeSeveralBlockbustersinDevelopmentwithBetterBiologics(postTNFinhibitors),BetterOrals,BetterTopicals,BetterScience

Page 6: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

InnovationinPsoriasis

Page 7: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

PsoriasisOverview

• EnvironmentalfactorstriggerinflammationcharacterizedbyTNFα/IL-23/Th17infiltratesingeneticallydisposedpopulation

• Sustainedinflammationleadstouncontrolledkeratinocyteproliferationanddysfunctionaldifferentiation

• Mostcommonsubtypeisplaquepsoriasis(psoriasisvulgaris)whichaccountsfor~90%ofcases

• Oftendevelopsbetweentheagesof15to25,andtreatmentconsistsoftopicaltreatments,phototherapy,andsystemictherapy

– Topicaltreatmentsaccountfornearly75%ofpsoriasisprescriptionsintheUS,~90%ofwhicharetopicalcorticosteroids1

• Hasseensignificantdevelopmentoverthepastcoupleofdecades,makingitamulti-billiondollarmarket

Psoriasisisachronicinflammatoryskindiseasethataffects~2%oftheglobalpopulation(~8millionpeopleintheUS)

1DermavantcompanyfilingswithSECNationalPsoriasisFoundation(psoriasis.org)

PlaquePsoriasis

Page 8: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

SignificantImprovementsinTreatmentinRecentYearsAdvancementsinourunderstandingofdiseasebiologyhaveleadtosignificantimprovementsintreatmentefficacy,asevidencedbyPASI75scoresinclinicaltrials

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Methotrexate*

Enbrel®

Humira®

Stelara®

Otezla®

Cosentyx®*

Taltz®

Siliq®

Tremfya®

Ilumya®

Skyrizi®

Bimekizumab

BMS-986165

Mirikizumab**

1972 2004 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 2018 2019 2021E 2021E 2021E

%ofPatientsAchievingPASI75

PASI75ScoresfromPhaseIIb TrialsOverTheYears

InjectionOral

Folic Acid TNFα TNFα IL-12/

23 p40 PDE4 Il-17A Il-17A Il-17R IL-23 p19

IL-23 p19

IL-23 p19

IL-17A/F TYK2 IL-23

p19

FDAApproval^

MOATarget

*BasedonPhaseIIIresults;**ImputedbasedonBMY-986165plusdifferenceinPASI90scores;^Estimatedforproductsthatarenotyetapproved

PASI75scoreshaveshownaclearupwardstrajectoryin

recentdecades

Page 9: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

PsoriasisRepresentsaLargeandGrowingMarketPsoriasisisalargemarket,drivenprimarilybyhighlyeffectivebiologics,withsignificantgrowthexpectedoverthecomingyears

Source:EvaluatePharma†Cosentyx,Taltz,Tremfya,Skyrizi,Stelara

>$9B2019globalsalesfortop-5

post-TNFbiologics†

>$16Bconsensus2024globalsalesfortop5post-TNFbiologics

>$14B2018globalsalesoftop10

psoriasistherapies

>$23BEstimated2024globalsalesoftop10psoriasistherapies

Stelara

Cosentyx

Tremfya

Otezla

Skyrizi

Humira

TaltzBMS-986165

Mirikizumab

Enbrel

Other

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

WWPsoriasisMarket,2010-2024

Other

Enbrel

Mirikizumab

BMS-986165

Taltz

Humira

Skyrizi

Otezla

Tremfya

Cosentyx

Stelara

Page 10: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

TYK2:ANewTargetforTh17DrivenDiseases

• TYK2functionsasaheterodimerwithJAK1orJAK2

– Inhibitionofeithermemberofthedimerblocksreceptorsignaling

• Stronggeneticassociationwithmultipleautoimmunedisordersinhumans

• PotentialtoreplicateefficacyofTh17biologicswhilealsoinhibitingType-Iinterferons(IFN)(α andβ)withasmallmolecule

– Keytargetforseveralchallengingauto-immunedisorders

• NotinhibitedbycurrentJAKinhibitorsliketofacitinibatclinicaldoses

• PotentiallysafertoinhibitcomparedwithJAK1/2/3*

• Outstandingconcerns:JAKclasslabelling?WillweseeJAK-likesideeffects?

TyrosineKinase2(TYK2)isamemberoftheJanusAssociatedKinase(JAK)familyofsignalingkinasesthatplaysanimportantroleinpro-inflammatorysignalpropagation

SelectJanusKinaseSignalingPathways

>$1.2B Consensus2024salesforBMS-986165(leadTYK2)^

*ApprovedJAKinibs haveboxedwarningsforsevereinfectionrisk,heightenedriskoflymphomadevelopment,andthrombosisImagefromBristol-MyersSquibbcompanyreports;^Source:EvaluatePharma

Page 11: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

TYK2:Best-in-ClassOralApproachingBiologicEfficacy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ote

zla®

BMS-

9861

65

Enbr

el®

Hum

ira®

Trem

fya®

Risa

nkiz

umab

Cose

ntyx

®

Taltz

®

Siliq

®

Bim

ekiz

umab

Bari

citin

ib

Xelja

nz®

PDE4Inhibitor

TYK2inhibitor

anti-TNFα trap

anti-TNFα mAb

IL-23 p19inhibitor

IL-23 p19inhibitor

Il-17Ainhibitor

Il-17Ainhibitor

Il-17Rinhibitor

IL-17A/Finhibitor

JAK 1,2inhibitor

JAK 1,3inhibitor

TYK2oral

anti-TNFα post-IL-23 or IL-17inhibitor

PASI

75

PASI

90

PASI

100

Biologics (injected)

Small Molecules (oral)

† Efficacy data from week 16; § Efficacy data from Phase III report; NR: Not reported; *Annual sales and indication-specific estimates from EvaluatePharma; **Development in psoriasis terminated

(3mgBID)

2018WWPsoriasisSalesbyProduct(USDmillions)*

1,374 N/A 1,180 3,643 544 N/A 2,002 831 32 N/A N/A N/A**

SelectTYK2Inhibitors

BMS-986165• AllostericTYK2inhibitorwithlowaffinityforJAK1/2/3

• PhaseIItrialdemonstratedhighestPASI75scoreforanoralto-date,withnoSAEs

• PhaseIIItrialsvs.Otezla ongoingwithreadoutexpectedin2020

• OngoingPhaseIItrialsinpsoriaticarthritis,lupus,Crohn’sdisease,ulcerativecolitis

Nimbus’TYK2DrugCandidate• PotentallostericinhibitorswithmarkedTYK2functionalselectivity(>1,000xthatofotherJAKsand>100xthatofBMS-986165)

• First-in-humanPhaseIinitiated• HadpartnershipwithCelgene:TBDifBMYkeepitafteracquisition

PASI75/90/100Comparisonat12Weeks,reportedatPhaseIIb

§

§ §

NR

NR

** **

Page 12: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Skyrizi:PotentiallyBest-in-Classanti-IL-23Inhibitor

ComparisonofPASI75/90/100at12WeeksFromPhaseIIbTrialsDemonstratesPromisingEfficacy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stel

ara®

Ilum

ya®

Trem

fya®

Risa

nkiz

umab

Miri

kizu

mab

Cose

ntyx

®

Taltz

®

Siliq

®

Bim

ekiz

umab

IL-12/23p40

inhibitor

IL-23 p19inhibitor

IL-23 p19inhibitor

IL-23 p19inhibitor

IL23 p19inhibitor

Il-17Ainhibitor

Il-17Ainhibitor

Il-17Rinhibitor

IL-17A/Finhibitor

anti-IL23 or anti-IL-17 inhibitors

PASI 75PASI 90PASI 100

† Efficacy data from week 16; § Efficacy data from Phase 3 report; NR: Not reported; *Annual sales and indication-specific estimates from EvaluatePharma.

2018WWPsoriasisSales($million)*

3,335 3 544 N/A N/A 2,002 831 32 N/A

§

§

NR

NR

FDAApprovalApril23,2019

MechanismIL-23p19antagonist

AdministrationSubQ injection(q12w)

Additionalopportunities• Crohn’sdisease• Psoriaticarthritis• Ulcerativecolitis• Atopicdermatitis

Stelara andCosentyx illustratesignificantopportunityinpost-TNFmarket

Page 13: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Skyrizi OffToaStrongStartinPost-TNFPsO MarketEarlylaunchmetricsshowthatSkyrizi isofftoastrongstartinthepost-TNFpsoriasismarket,suggestingitwillholdacommandingpositioninthislargeandgrowingmarket

*IncludespatientsinthebridgeaccessprogramSources:EvaluatePharma;AbbViethirdquarter2019earningscall

~3,500prescribingphysicians

>9,000patientstreated*

>80%commercialaccess

>20%marketshareofin-playpsoriasispatients

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

WWSales,First4QuartersPost-Launch

Cosentyx Taltz Tremfya Skyrizi Stelara

Skyrizi’s first2quartersonthemarkethaveoutperformedrecentpeersintheIL-17/IL-23antibodyclass,suggesting

blockbusterpotential

After2quartersonthemarket…

Page 14: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Tapinarof:AhR AgonistforPlaquePsoriasis

• BindingtoAhR downregulatespro-inflammatoryfactorsANDincreasesrestorativeresponses:– DownregulationofTh17andTh2inflammatory

cytokines

– Restoresepithelialbarrierfunctionbyinducingtranscriptionoffilaggrin

– IncreasesproductionofNrf-2toreduceoxidativestress

Dermavant’s tapinarof isatopicalarylhydrocarbonreceptor(AhR)agonistinPhaseIIItrialsforplaquepsoriasis,withpotentialtoexpandintoatopicdermatitisfollowingasuccessfulPhaseIIbtrial

1DermavantcompanyfilingswithSEC;TCS,topicalcorticosteroids

• Topicaltherapiesrepresentasignificantmarket(~75%ofscripts)

• Relativelylittleinnovationintopicaltherapiesascomparedtobiologics– PrimarilyTCS;topicalJAKinibs havebeen

unsuccessfulinpsoriasisto-date

• PromisingdatainPhaseIIb trialsinPsO andmoderate-to-severeatopicdermatitis

• OngoingpivotalprograminPsO (PSOARING)withdataexpectedin2020:– Two12-weekPhaseIIItrials(NCT03956355;

NCT03983980)

– PhaseIIIlong-termopen-labelsafetystudy(NCT04053387)

MarketOpportunity& DevelopmentStatusMechanismofAction

Page 15: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Tapinarof:PromisingPhaseIIb EfficacyinPsoriasisApreviouslycompletedPhaseIIb trialinplaquepsoriasisdemonstrateimpressiveefficacyforatopicalproduct,andsupportongoingPhaseIIIPSOARINGdevelopmentprogram

Proportionofpatientsexperiencinga≥75%improvementfrombaselinePASIscores

*p<0.05;BID,twicedaily;EASI,eczemaareaandseverityindex;IGA,investigatorglobalassessment;QD,oncedaily;PASI,psoriasisareaandseverityindex;PGA,physicianglobalassessment;^NCT03956355,NCT03983980,NCT04053387Sources:PeppersK.etal.,2019. J.Am.Acad.Dermatol.;RobbinsK.etal.,2019. J.Am.Acad.Dermatol.

PASI75of56%atweek12(1%QD)iscomparabletoPhaseIIb efficacyofcurrentlyapprovedorlate-stageoraltherapies(Otezla,41%;baracitinib,54%;BMS-’165TYK2,69%)

Ongoingpivotalprograminpsoriasis(PSOARING^)withdataexpectedin2020

Page 16: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

InnovationinAtopicDermatitis

Page 17: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

AtopicDermatitisOverview

• Mostoftenoccursearlyinlife;oftendisappearsaschildrenage,butcanreturnasflares

• EstimatedUSprevalenceof~13%inchildrenand7%-10%inadults1

– ~9.6millionchildren(<18)and~16.5millionadultsintheUShaveAD**

• Believedtobecausedwhentheimmunesystemover-reactstoanenvironmentaltrigger– Geneticpredisposition,skinbarrierdysfunction,andaberrant

immuneresponse(especiallyTh2/Th22)

• Significantdiseaseburden,boththroughthedirectsymptomsofAD(e.g.,itch)aswellasanelevatedriskofseveralcomorbidconditions

• Nearly5.9millionworkdaysannuallylostduetoeczema2

• Annualeconomicburden(directandindirect)conservativelyestimatedat$5.3billionin20153

AtopicDermatitis(AD),themostcommon,severe,andlong-lastingformofeczema,isachronicinflammatoryskindiseasecharacterizedbydryskinandpruritus

1Silverbergetal.,2017.Dermatol Clin.; 2NationalEczemafoundationwebsite,accessedDecember18,2019.3Druckeretal.,2017,JInvestDermatol.;*Source:EvaluatePharma;**nationaleczemaassociation(nationaleczema.org)

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000

2016

2017

2018

2019E

2020E

2021E

2022E

2023E

2024E

WWADSales(USDmillions)*

DiseaseBackground MarketOpportunity

• TheADmarketislessdevelopedthanthePsO market

• Significantgrowthexpectedovernext5-10yearsasseveralnewdrugsexpectedtocometomarket

• 2017approvalofDupixent,thefirstbiologicforADsparkedinflectiontowardsgrowth

Page 18: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

SignificantRoomforImprovementRemains

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Eucrisa

Dupixent

abrocitinib

(200mg)

baracitinib

(4mg)

tralokinumab

(300mg)

nemolizumab

(30mg)+TCS

ruxolitinib

(1.5%BID)

lebrikizum

ab(250mgQ2W

)

upadacitinib

(30mg)

delgocitinib

(0.5%BID)**

tapinarof

(1%BID)

tezepelumab

+TCS

bermekimab

(400mg)

ARQ-151

(0.15%

)

LessCompetitiveDevelopmentLandscapethanPsoriasisIGA0or1EASI75

Est.USApproval 2016 2017 2020* 2020* 2020 2020 2022 2023 2023* 2023? 2023? 2024 2024? 2024+?

Target PDE4 IL-4Rα JAK1 JAK1/2 IL-13 IL-31RA JAK1/2 IL-13 JAK1 Pan-JAK AhRagonist Anti-TSL IL-1α PDE4

Admin. Topical Injection Oral Oral Injection Injection Topical Injection Oral Topical Topical Injection Injection Topical

Endpoint Week4 Week16 Week12 Week16 Week12 Week16 Week8 Week16 Week16 Week4 Week12 Week16 Week8 Week4

TSL,thymic stromallymphopoeiten;AhR,Arylhydrocarbonreceptor;*Highestdoseshown,thoughlowerdosesarestillbeingdevelopedinongoingtrials.**DatafromPhaseIIIstudyconductedinJapan.Datafromcompanypresentations.

FewerbiologicsandlowerbarforefficacyascomparedtoPsO illustratetherelativeunderdevelopmentinAD

Thoughdevelopmentactivityhasincreasedinrecentyears,thenumberofdrugsindevelopment,andtheefficacyseeninlate-stagetrialssuggestsalessdevelopedmarketthanpsoriasis

NR

Page 19: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Lebrikizumab:TargetingIL-13forAtopicDermatitis(AD)

• IL-13believedtomediateinflammationandamplifysensoryneuronresponses

• SelectivelypreventsformationoftheIL-13Rα1/IL-4RαheterodimerreceptorsignalingcomplexwhileleavingendogenousregulationofIL-13intact

• AllowsforthesafetyobservedwithotherIL-4/IL-13monoclonalantibodies(e.g.,dupilumab)withpotentiallybetterefficacy

• CurrentlybeingevaluatedinPhaseIIIprogramafterpositiveresultsfromPhaseIIb study– EffectsonitchwereobservedasearlyasDay2inpatientsreceiving

aloadingdose

– Receivedbreakthroughtherapydesignation

• TwopivotalPhaseIIImonotherapystudiesongoing– Top-lineresultsfrom16-weekinductionperiodofbothPhaseIII

studiesexpectedfirsthalfof2021

Dermira’s lebrikizumab selectivelytargetsIL-13topreventreceptordimerizationwhileleavingendogenousregulationofIL-13intact

ADisprojectedtobecomeoneofthelargestmarketsindermatologyby2027

Lebrikizumab Mechanism

Source:Dermira companypresentations

Page 20: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Lebrikizumab DemonstratesPromisingEfficacyInthePhaseIIb study,lebrikizumab demonstrateddose-dependentresponsesacrossallendpoints

EarlyandsustainedimprovementsinEASI

Dose-dependentimprovementsacrosssecondaryendpoints

Robustimprovementsinpruritusscores

*p<0.05,**p<0.0,***p<0.001versusplaceboformpairwiseCochran-Mantel-Haenszel testsLEB,lebrikizumabl;LS,leastsquares;MCMC,MarkovchainMonteCarlo;NRS,numericratingscaleSource:Dermira companypresentations

-41.1

-62.3*-69.2**

-72.1***-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

PlaceboQ2W(n=52)

LEB125mgQ4W(n=73)

LEB250mgQ4W(n=80)

LEB250mgQ2W(n=75)

LSMeanChangefrom

Baseline(%)

EASIAtWeek16(PrimaryEndpoint)

-25.4-31.3 -31.0

-40.6-42.4

-53.9

-62.5 -61.5*

-46.5

-61.2

-64.7-69.7**

-50.4

-64.1

-73.5 -72.8***-80.0

-70.0

-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.00 4 8 12 16

MeanChangefrom

Baseline(%)

WeekEASIToWeek16

PlaceboQ2W(n=52) LEB125mgQ4W(n=73)

LEB250mgQ4W(n=80) LEB250mgQ2W(n=75)

2.7 16.7 16.624.316.7

30.843.8 43.3

23.4

38.548.3 56.1**

30.4

45.5

66.960.6***

0102030405060708090100

0 4 8 12 16

Patients(%)

Weeks

EASI75

0.5 4.0 5.211.4

3.7 17.3 20.526.17.6

26.0 28.436.1**

14.2

29.836.4 44.0***

0102030405060708090100

0 4 8 12 16

Patients(%)

Weeks

EASI90

0.1 4.8 3.4 15.33.1 14.7 22.1

26.610.024.0

29.9 33.7*

13.9

31.3

42.2 44.6**

0102030405060708090100

0 4 8 12 16

Patients(%)

Weeks

IGA0/1

27.3

41.847.4

70.0***

39.343.5 46.2

67.2**

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PlaceboQ2W(n=22,52)

LEB125mgQ4W(n=55,73)

LEB250mgQ4W(n=57,80)

LEB250mgQ2W(n=50,75)

Patients(%)

NRSChange≥4Points

Noimputation(observedcases)MCMCimputation

4.3

-35.9**

-49.6***-60.6***

-4.6

-36.5**-46.4***

-58.5***

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

PlaceboQ2W(n=22,52)

LEB125mgQ4W(n=55,73)

LEB250mgQ4W(n=56,80)

LEB250mgQ2W(n=50,75)

Patients(%)

NRSChange≥4Points

Noimputation(observedcases)MCMCimputation

Page 21: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Rinvoq (upadacitinib):JAK1InhibitionforAD

• Approvedforrheumatoidarthritis(RA);inlatestagedevelopmentforatopicdermatitis(AD),Crohn’sdisease,psoriaticarthritis,ulcerativecolitis,andgiantcellarteritis– AlreadyshownsuperiorityoverHumira inPsO1

• SuccessfullycompletedPhaseIIstudyinAD:– Alldosegroups(30/15/7.5mgonce-daily)mettheprimaryendpointwithdosedependentrelationship

– Nonewsafetysignalsidentified,throughlong-termsafetywillbekeyforadermatologyindicationgiventheclass-wideblackboxwarning

AbbVie’sUpadacitinib isaJAK1inhibitorapprovedforthetreatmentofrheumatoidarthritis,andinlate-stagedevelopmentfornumerousinflammatoryconditionsincludingatopicdermatitis

*p<0.05,^p<0.01,†p<0.001;EASI,EczemaAreaandSeverityIndex;IGA,Investigator’sGlobalAssessment;NRS,NumericalRatingScale;PC,PrimaryCompletion;TCS,topicalcorticosteroids;1ReichKetal.,2019;TheLancet.

23%

10%2% 2%

10%

39%*

29%*

14%* 14%*

40%^

62%†

52%†

26%^31%†

48%†

74%†

69%†

50%† 50%†

69%†

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Mean%∆inEASIscore

EASI75 EASI90 IGAof0or1 %∆inpruritusNRS

StrongEfficacySignalinPhaseII

Placebo(n=41) 7.5mg(n=42) 15mg(n=42) 30mg(n=42)

• ComprehensivePhaseIIIprogramunderway:• MeasureUp1(NCT03569293);

n=810,PC:March2020

• NCT03607422;n=810,PC:Feb2020

• NCT03568318(combowithTCS);n=810,PC:March2020

• NCT03738397(vs.dupilumab);n=650,PC:Sept.2020

Page 22: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Bermekimab:Anti-IL-1α forAD

• DerivedfromnaturalhumanhumoralresponseagainstIL-1α• IL-1α isproducedbyactivatedleukocytesandhasnumerousbiologicaleffects• Single-productassetbeingdevelopinarangeofdermatology,immunology,andoncologyindications• RecentlyacquiredbyJ&Jfor$750millionupfrontwithupto$600millioninmilestones• Promisingdatafromopen-labelPhaseIIstudiesinADandhidradenitissuppurativa (HS)

XBiotech’s Bermekimab,recentlyin-licensedbyJ&J,isananti-IL-1α antibodyindevelopmentforarangeofindications,includingatopicdermatitisandhidradenitissuppurativa

Alsodemonstratedstrongimprovementsinitch(~70%mean%reduction)andpain(>80%mean%

reduction)

Alsodemonstratedstrongimprovementsinpain(54%-64%reductionfrombaseline)

HiSCR,HidradenitisSuppurativa Clinicalresponse;*HiSCR =61%forbiologic-naïveand63%forbiologic-refractorypatients**HumiraStudyIIallowedconcomitantuseofantibiotics

HidradenitisSuppurativaAtopicDermatitis

55%60%65%70%75%80%

abrocitinib(week12)

upadacitinib(week16)

bermekimab(week8)

%achievingEASI75 BestEASI75responserates,

andfastestonsetofcurrenttherapiesindevelopment

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Investigatorstudy

Companystudy*

HumiraStudyI

HumiraStudyII**

%achievingHiSCR

Page 23: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

InnovationinOtherDermatologyIndications

Page 24: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

PF-06651600:SelectiveJAK3InhibitorforAlopecia

• Givenautoimmuneetiology,recentdevelopmenthasfocusedonJAKinibs aspotentialtherapy• PF-06651600istheonlyJAK3-selectiveJAKinib indevelopmentforAA• Bindstoauniquecysteineresidue(Cys-909)inthecatalyticdomainofJAK3thatisnotsharedbyother

JAKisoforms,butissharedby5kinasesintheTECfamily(BTK,BMX,ITK,RLK,TEC)1– Preclinicaldatasuggeststhatofthecytolytic functionofCD8+TcellsandNKcellsisdrivenbyinhibitionofTEC

kinases1

Pfizer’sPF-’600,aJAK3inhibitor,iscurrentlybeingtestedinPhaseIIb/IIItrialsafterasuccessfulPhaseIIa studyinAlopeciaAreata (AA)

1Christophetal.,2000;2XuH.,etal.,ACSChem. Biol.2019,14,6,1235-1242.QD,oncedailyadministration

• 95patientswithmoderate-to-severeAA(≥50%scalphairloss),randomized1:1to200mgQDPF-06651600,orplacebo– Onsetofeffectat6weekswithcontinuedimprovement

outto24weeks– ReceivedbreakthroughtherapydesignationforAA– CurrentlyinongoingPhaseIIb/IIIdose-rangingstudy

(n=660;primarycompletion,September2020)– Despitebetterefficacy,PF-06700841(JAK1/TYK2),was

notprogressedduetosafetyissues(2casesofrhabdomyolysis)

• Concert’sCTP-543(deuteratedruxolitinib)hasalsoshownefficacy,howevercommercializationstrategyisuncertain

PF-06651600PhaseIIa trial

Source: PFE company reports; EADV 2018 presentation

Efficacy analysis for the Phase II trial of Pfizer's JAKinib portfolio for alopecias

**p<0.01, ***p<0.001 vs. placebo; CI = Confidence interval; JAK = Janus-associated kinase; SALT = Severity of alopecia tool; All values are placebo normalized

0 2 4 6 8 12 16 20 24

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 PlaceboPF-06651600 (50-200mg, QD)PF-06700841 (30-60mg, QD)

****

***

***

******

******

*** *** ***

******

Weeks of treatment

Mea

nDS

ALT

scor

efro

m b

asel

ine

(90%

CI)

Page 25: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

BiologicstoContinuetoTransformAtopicDiseases

• IL-4Rα monoclonalantibody• Approvedindications:atopicdermatitis,

eosinophilicasthma,chronicrhinosinusitis withnasalpolyposis(CRSwNP)

• Indevelopmentfor:eosinophilicesophagitis(EoE),chronicobstructivepulmonarydisorder(COPD),grass,peanutallergy

• EstimatedWW2024sales:$6.2billion

• Anti-IgE antibody(i.e.,high-affinityXolair)• Indevelopmentfor:chronicspontaneous

urticaria (CSU)• Pivotaldataexpected2021

Dupixent Ligelizumab

• Anti-Siglec-8antibody,directlytargetingcellsurfaceproteinsoneosinophilsandmastcells

• Indevelopmentfor:eosinophilicgastritis/gastroenteritis,chronicspontaneousurticaria,idiopathicsystemicmastocytosis,andsevereallergicconjunctivitis

• Pivotaldataasearlyas2021

• Anti-IL-1α monoclonalantibody• Indicationsindevelopment:pyoderm

gangrenosum,hidradenitissuppurativa,plaquepsoriasis,acnevulgaris,atopicdermatitis,systemicscleroderma,andvariousoncologyindications

• RecentlyacquiredbyJNJfor$750millionupfrontwithupto$600millioninmilestones

Antolimab Bermekimab

Page 26: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Antolimab forAtopicDisorders

• Engagessiglec-8todepleteeosinophilsandinhibitmastcells

• DatafromGIdisorderssuggestsbetterandfastereosinophildepletionthanDupixent

• Hasgeneratedpromisingdatafromanopen-labelPhaseIIstudyinchronicspontaneousurticaria(CSU),andthecompanyhasopenlydiscussedstartingastudyinAD

• Whilenotpuredermatology,urticaria isclearlyrelatedtodermatology,andthedrugmayhavepotentialinadditionaldermatologyindicationssuchasAD

Allakos’antolimab (AK002)isanafucosylated anti-siglec-8monoclonalantibodythatdepleteseosinophilsandinhibitsmastcells

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

-78%

-100%

-77% -73%

-55%-46% -41% -38%

-23%-13%

-30%

UAS

-7(%

cha

nge

from

bas

elin

e)

IndividualpatientUAS-7scoreresponsesinXolair-refractorypatientstreatedwithantolimab

UCT,urticaria controltest;UAS-7,urticaria activityscore;HSS7,hivesseverityscore(sumofaveragedailyscorefrom7precedingdays)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Ligelizum

ab72mg

Ligelizum

ab240m

g

Omalizum

ab

Antolim

ab(Xolair-naïve)

Antolim

ab(Xolair-refractory)

N= 84 85 85 13 13

ProportionofpatientswithHSS7=0inCSUtrials

Page 27: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Antolimab LooksCompetitiveinCSU

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

UCT(CR) UAS-7%improvementfrombaseline

UAS7<7 UAS7=0 HSS7=0

ComparisontoXolair andLigelizumab inCSU

Xolair* Ligelizumab Antolimab

NR NR

*ShowingbestdataforeachendpointacrossASTERIAI/IIPhaseIIItrials,GLACIALPhaseIIItrial,andPhaseIIb trialofXolair vs.ligelizumabSources:SainiS.etal.,2015.J.InvestDermatol;MaurerM.etal.,2013.NEJM;KaplanA.etal.,2019.JACI;MaurerM.etal.,2018.EAACI;WilliamBlair&CompanyLLCUCT,urticaria controltest;UAS-7,urticaria activityscore;HSS7,hivesseverityscore(sumofaveragedailyscorefrom7precedingdays)

Basedondatafromtheopen-labelPhaseIIstudyinCSU,antolimab comparesfavorablytotheleadingmast-celltargetedbiologicsusedforthetreatmentofpatientswithantihistaminerefractoryCSU

Page 28: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

KrystalBiotech:GeneTherapyPlatformforDermatology

• LeadcandidateisKB103(bercolagene telserpavec;B-VEC)forrecessivedystrophicepidermolysisbullosa(dystrophicEB,DEB)– DEBisarare,geneticconnectivetissuediseasethatcausesskintotearandblisterformminorcontact– CausedbymutationsintheCOL7A1genethatcodesfortheCOL7proteinwhichanchorsthedermistoepidermis

• NoapprovedtreatmentsforDEB;palliativetreatmentscost$200k-$400kannually2,3

• WWprevalenceupto125,0001

SkinTARgeted Delivery(STAR-D)Platformusesmodifiedherpessimplexvirus1(HSV)vectorstotreatskindiseases

1DebraInternational2RashidghamatE.,Mellerio J.E.,Managementofchronicwoundsinpatientswithdystrophicepidermolysisbullosa:challengesandsolutions,ChronicWoundCareManagementandResearchVolume2017:4,45-543GENEGRAFTReportSummary.(2015,February16).RetrievedDecember13,2016,fromhttp://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/156078_en.htmlSource:KrystalBiotechcompanypresentation

Mechanism of Action

KB103entersthecompromisedskinandtransduceskeratinocytesandfibroblasts

1

KB103entersthenucleusoftransducedcellsandthevectorgenomeisdeposited(episomally)

2

COL7A1 transcriptsaregenerated,allowingproductionandsecretionofCOL7protein

3

SecretedCOL7proteinassemblesintoanchoringfibrilswhichholdthedermisandepidermistogether

4

Page 29: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

KB103:ClinicalDataTo-Date

• Notreatmentrelatedadverseevents• Noimmuneresponseorblisteringobservedaroundthesites

ofadministration• Bloodandurinesamplesrevealed:

– Noviralshedding– NoAEsassociatedwithroutinelabs– NoantibodiestoCOL7detected

Combinedresultsfromacombined8patientsinthePhaseI(GEM-1)andPhaseII(GEM-II)studiesdemonstrategoodefficacy,aswellasgoodsafety/tolerability

RMATdesignationPRIMEeligibility

FastTrackDesignationGranted

OrphanDrugDesignationinUSand

EURarePediatricDiseaseDesignationinUS

EligibilityforPriorityReviewVoucher

9/10* woundsclosedcompletelyafterinitialadministrations

17.4 averagetime(days)to100%woundclosure(ofthe9treatedwounds)

113 averageduration(days)ofwoundclosureatlasttimepointmeasured

Pivotalstudyexpectedtobegininfirsthalfof2020;BLAfilingexpectedinthesecondhalfof2020

IllustrativeWoundHealingDatafromPatient05inPhaseIIstudy

Source:KrystalBiotechcompanypresentation*The10thwoundclosedfollowingasecondadministrationofKB103

Page 30: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

Summary

Page 31: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

DermatologyRemainsaGreatAreaofInnovation• Recentyearshaveseenmajorclinicalimprovementsindermatologydrugdevelopment,as

evidencedbyimprovementinpsoriasiswithPASI100nowbeingarealisticgoalfortreatment• Thelargenumberofhigh-qualityproductsindevelopment,spanningdifferentmechanismsof

actionandroutesofadministration(oral,biologic,topical)aswellasgenetherapyacrosstheindicationsdiscussedillustratesongoinginnovation

• ThesetherapieshavethepotentialtotouchthelivesofmillionsofpatientsintheUSalone(>8millionPsO;>18millionAD;>6millionAA)offeringsignificantimprovementsinhealthandQoL

Indication Drug 2024ESales*

PsO BMS-986165 1,233

PsO Skyrizi 2,616

PsO tapinarof NA

AD lebrikizumab 248

AD Rinvoq NA

AD Dupixent 4,138

AA PF-06651600 112

AA CTP-543 165

CSU ligelizumab 94

CSU antolimab 256^

Multiple bermekimab NA

DEB KB103 275

TOTAL 9,137

• Significantcommercialopportunity– Top10PsO therapiesgenerating2018globalsales>$14

billioninPsO alone

• Newleadersemerging(AbbVie,Pfizer,Merck,Regeneron,Incyte,EliLilly),withseveralsmallerinnovatorsalsoenteringthescene(Dermira,Krystal,Allakos,Nimbus,Concert,Dermavant,Revance,Novan,Principia)

*2024GlobalsalesestimatesforlistedindicationfromEvaluatePharma;^WilliamBlairestimateforCSU

Page 32: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

DISCLOSURESWilliam Blair was a manager or co-manager of a public offering of equity securities within the prior 12 months.

William Blair or an affiliate is a market maker in the securities of companies mentioned in this report.

William Blair or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months from one or more subject companies covered in thisreport.

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Please contact us at +1 800 621 0687 or consult williamblair.com for all disclosures.

Tim Lugo attests that 1) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the securities and companies covered by this report,and 2) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed by him/her in this report. We seek to update ourresearch as appropriate, but various regulations may prohibit us from doing so. Other than certain periodical industry reports, the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals asdeemed appropriate by the analyst. In addition, the analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the past 12 months.

01/08/20DJIA: 28583.70S&P 500: 3237.18NASDAQ: 9068.58

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Page 33: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

OTHERDISCLOSURES

* Percentage of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients, defined as companies for which William Blair has received compensation for investment banking

services within the past 12 months.

The compensation of the research analyst is based on a variety of factors, including performance of his or her stock recommendations; contributions to all of the firm’s departments,

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the expected performance of the stock relative to the broader market (generally the S&P 500, unless otherwise indicated) over the next 12 months. The assessment of expected performance

is a function of near-, intermediate-, and long-term company fundamentals, industry outlook, confidence in earnings estimates, valuation (and our valuation methodology), and other

factors. Outperform (O) – stock expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Market Perform (M) – stock expected to perform approximately in line with the

broader market over the next 12 months; Underperform (U) – stock expected to underperform the broader market over the next 12 months; not rated (NR) – the stock is not currently

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The ratings, price targets (where used), valuation methodologies, and company profile assessments reflect the opinion of the individual analyst and are subject to change at any time.

CurrentRatingDistribution(asof01/08/20)CoverageUniverse Percent Inv.BankingRelationships* PercentOutperform(Buy) 68% Outperform(Buy) 22%MarketPerform(Hold) 30% MarketPerform(Hold) 8%Underperform(Sell) 0% Underperform(Sell) 0%

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Page 34: Tim Lugo Blockbuster Opportunities in the Dermatology Pipeline

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