Preferences, Presidencies and Vulnerabilities:Preferences, Presidencies and Vulnerabilities:Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic’s Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic’s

Choices for EuropeChoices for Europe

Tim HaughtonTim HaughtonUniversity of BirminghamUniversity of Birmingham

Enlargement – Five Years After ConferenceEnlargement – Five Years After ConferenceCEU, Budapest, 8-9 May 2009CEU, Budapest, 8-9 May 2009

WhWhyy look look at NPF in New EU MS? at NPF in New EU MS? Most scholarly discussion of NMS has focused on Most scholarly discussion of NMS has focused on

accession and conditionality, but what explains accession and conditionality, but what explains their preferences at the European level as MS? their preferences at the European level as MS?

Feeds into theoretical debates about what drives Feeds into theoretical debates about what drives

integration integration

But also examining the process of NPF in NMS But also examining the process of NPF in NMS also illuminates the dynamics of domestic politics also illuminates the dynamics of domestic politics inc. power and influence of societal groupings etc.inc. power and influence of societal groupings etc. questions of state capacity questions of state capacity Legacies of communism, post-communist transition and Legacies of communism, post-communist transition and

the consequences of the accession process the consequences of the accession process

Framework of Preference Formation in the Old Member Framework of Preference Formation in the Old Member States (based on Copsey and Haughton, 2009)States (based on Copsey and Haughton, 2009)

Broad Policy Area What shapes stance?

More/Deeper Europe Visionary vs Ideological Resistance

Distributive Politics Net Contributor/Recipient

Liberalization Ideology of governing politicians and linked business interests

Wider Europe Geography Attitudes to deeper

integration

Key = perceived shortcomings and vulnerability i.e. states integrate to make up for weaknesses

Core arguments of my project:Core arguments of my project:

NMS largely conform to this synthetic model, NMS largely conform to this synthetic model, but two factors which need to be brought in: but two factors which need to be brought in:

1.1. Capacity/Size of stateCapacity/Size of state

2.2. Nature of Accession procesNature of Accession proces

Vulnerability c.f. Dependency:Vulnerability c.f. Dependency: dependency = narrower concept which focuses mostly on dependency = narrower concept which focuses mostly on

economics i.e. dependency can be seen as a sub-set of economics i.e. dependency can be seen as a sub-set of vulnerabilityvulnerability

perceivedperceived is central to the concept of vulnerability i.e. it is central to the concept of vulnerability i.e. it cannot be understood merely by looking at tables of stats cannot be understood merely by looking at tables of stats

5 Lessons What can we learn 5 Lessons What can we learn from examining SK, SI and CZ? from examining SK, SI and CZ?

Accession Process mattersAccession Process matters Business matters (but this varies) Business matters (but this varies) Size (perception of) mattersSize (perception of) matters Ideology matters: Ideology matters:

morals – internal differencesmorals – internal differences markets – external battles markets – external battles

Holding EU presidency matters Holding EU presidency matters

Slovakia under Dzurinda and FicoSlovakia under Dzurinda and Fico

Although governments of different ideological Although governments of different ideological hues, ‘continuity rather than change’ on range of hues, ‘continuity rather than change’ on range of policy areas (Bilcik, 2007) e.g. policy areas (Bilcik, 2007) e.g.

Euro entry Euro entry

Further enlargement to Western BalkansFurther enlargement to Western Balkans

Constitutional/Lisbon TreatiesConstitutional/Lisbon Treaties

Milking the EU Cash Cow Milking the EU Cash Cow

Nature of Accession Nature of Accession explanation? explanation?

Consequences of accession path:Consequences of accession path:

Desire to catch-up: Slovakia as an Desire to catch-up: Slovakia as an ‘obedient dog’‘obedient dog’

Debate: who was responsible for Debate: who was responsible for nono in ’97 in ’97

Valence: who is best placed to achieve the Valence: who is best placed to achieve the shared goal shared goal

2002 Election Campaign2002 Election Campaign – Smer – Smer

YES TO THE EU! BUT NOT WITH BARE BOTTOMS…

Country Trade to GDP ratio for (2004-6)

Share of country’s total exports to rest of EU-25

Italy 52.9 59%France 53.2 65%Greece 53.5 53%Spain 57.2 71%UK 57.6 57%

Poland 78.4 77%Germany 77.0 63%Denmark 93.3 65%Austria 102.4 70%

Netherlands 127.5 75%Slovenia 130.1 66%Hungary 141.5 75%

Czech Republic 144.7 84%Ireland 148.6 63%

Slovakia 162.7 85%Estonia 165.1 78%Malta 168.3 51%

Luxembourg 270.1 84%

Trade to GDP ratio and Share of Exports to Rest of EU-25 (selected countries)

Estimated net budgetary balances (% GNI)

Net contributors to/Net recipients from the EU’s budget in Billion euros

estimates of net beneficiaries/contributors per capita based on budget for 2007-2013 Financial Perspective (€)

Lux 5.80 +0.9 +16170Lith 4.41 +0.4 +2157Pol 3.76 +1.4 +1705Slovakia 3.27 +0.2 +2039Czech Rep 3.17 +0.3 +2139Greece 2.16 +4.1 +2238Port 1.50 +3.1 +1604Slovenia 1.31 +0.1 +1443Spain 0.23 +7.9 +49Finland – 0.25 -0.1 -701Denmark – 0.31 -0.3 -1322France – 0.37 -3.1 -805Austria – 0.38 -0.4 -1024Sweden – 0.50 -1.2 -1207Germany – 0.54 -8.5 -1043Netherlands – 0.56 -3.2 -1467

EU Dependency: Net Recipients and Net Contributors (EU-25) (selected)

Dependency: EU as a cash cow Dependency: EU as a cash cow

As a relatively poor state, distributive politics = key; As a relatively poor state, distributive politics = key; ensure flow of fundsensure flow of funds

Even the nationalists like the EU …… for its moneyEven the nationalists like the EU …… for its money at at least!least!

‘We don’t want foreign things and we won’t give you ours’. ‘European funds are ours, OURS!’

Powerful societal groups and dependencyPowerful societal groups and dependency Dependency arguments – still require Dependency arguments – still require

identification of the mechanisms (i.e. how identification of the mechanisms (i.e. how dependency is translated into articulated dependency is translated into articulated preferences) preferences)

Business lobbyBusiness lobby Dzurinda govt’s neo-liberal project became Dzurinda govt’s neo-liberal project became

increasingly fuelled by powerful business lobby increasingly fuelled by powerful business lobby Pressure from business continued post June 2006Pressure from business continued post June 2006 Given Slovakia’s small, open and export orientated Given Slovakia’s small, open and export orientated

economy, business pushed for the euro, but economy, business pushed for the euro, but simultaneously argued for the continuation of the simultaneously argued for the continuation of the national veto on taxationnational veto on taxation

Vulnerabilities and Weaknesses in Vulnerabilities and Weaknesses in Slovak RepublicSlovak Republic

Relatively new and Relatively new and poor poor statestate Highly trade dependent Highly trade dependent Lack of expertise and experienceLack of expertise and experience Small – lack of clout – on institutional issues Small – lack of clout – on institutional issues

became a disinterested player - from ‘field became a disinterested player - from ‘field to bench’ (Malova and Bilcik, 2008). to bench’ (Malova and Bilcik, 2008).

= Give us your money and access to market = Give us your money and access to market and we’ll keep quietand we’ll keep quiet

Czech Choices for Europe Czech Choices for Europe

Enlargement/Wider Europe: Enlargement/Wider Europe: consistent support consistent support

Liberalization: Liberalization: largely consistent advocacy, although largely consistent advocacy, although

differences over Services Directivedifferences over Services Directive

More/Deeper Europe:More/Deeper Europe: differences between Paroubek and differences between Paroubek and

Topolanek Topolanek

Ideology Ideology

Klaus – ideological stanceKlaus – ideological stance However takes pleasure in saying However takes pleasure in saying

controversialcontroversial

Lisbon TreatyLisbon Treaty ODS: divided, ideological rooted criticism, but ODS: divided, ideological rooted criticism, but

pragmatic wing largerpragmatic wing larger CSSD: Paroubek rooted support in Social CSSD: Paroubek rooted support in Social

Democratic belief in co-operation Democratic belief in co-operation

EU Presidency role? EU Presidency role?

Strengthened position of Alexandr Vondra (dep PM Strengthened position of Alexandr Vondra (dep PM for European Affairs)for European Affairs)

But even Vondra has modified views on Lisbon TreatyBut even Vondra has modified views on Lisbon Treaty

‘‘Europe without barriers’Europe without barriers’ call for liberalization, but included references to ‘flexicurity’call for liberalization, but included references to ‘flexicurity’

How much of a difference if a CSSD-led How much of a difference if a CSSD-led government?government?

Some priorities driven by necessity e.g. energySome priorities driven by necessity e.g. energy

Ambiguity of meaning of domestic campaign slogan Ambiguity of meaning of domestic campaign slogan Evrope to osladime Evrope to osladime

sweetening Europe or giving the Union a hard time? sweetening Europe or giving the Union a hard time?

Slovenia: European themesSlovenia: European themes Consensus c.f. conflictConsensus c.f. conflict 1997 agreement during accession1997 agreement during accession 2007 agreement over preparations for the presidency2007 agreement over preparations for the presidency Exception = Jelinicic and SNS ‘eurorealist’Exception = Jelinicic and SNS ‘eurorealist’

EU Presidency EU Presidency Most of stated priorities = inherited Most of stated priorities = inherited Enlargement to Western Balkans – ‘recognition card’ Enlargement to Western Balkans – ‘recognition card’

(Klemencic, 2007)(Klemencic, 2007) Not messing up = very important priorityNot messing up = very important priority Deeper vulnerabilities of SI highlighted by current dispute with Deeper vulnerabilities of SI highlighted by current dispute with

Croatia Croatia

Morals and Markets in SK, SI & CZMorals and Markets in SK, SI & CZ

Markets:Markets: Generally consistently pro-market agenda, Generally consistently pro-market agenda,

although Slovenia more moderate stance although Slovenia more moderate stance

Morals:Morals: Internal divisionsInternal divisions Christian Democratic right (SI and SK) vs Christian Democratic right (SI and SK) vs Soc Soc

DemDem left left

Broader reflections/Broader reflections/Avenues for future research Avenues for future research

For Business?For Business? Slovak case suggests that business has been influential, but Slovak case suggests that business has been influential, but

perhaps because of weak societal blockages (weak civil soc)perhaps because of weak societal blockages (weak civil soc) Civil soc and free market critics stronger elsewhere, but also Civil soc and free market critics stronger elsewhere, but also

in Slovenia and Czech Rep voice of business forced through in Slovenia and Czech Rep voice of business forced through more institutional filtersmore institutional filters

EU Presidency Role?EU Presidency Role? hinders articulation of more eurosceptic noises in Czech Rep hinders articulation of more eurosceptic noises in Czech Rep

case; case; hindered much of a debate in Slovene case? hindered much of a debate in Slovene case?

Broader reflections/Broader reflections/Avenues for future research (cont.)Avenues for future research (cont.)

Becoming more like older member states?Becoming more like older member states? How much longer will the post-communist How much longer will the post-communist

experience matter (link to debates on legacies)?experience matter (link to debates on legacies)?

Priority for most member states are EU-fundsPriority for most member states are EU-funds support and enthusiasm is contingent on flow of these support and enthusiasm is contingent on flow of these

funds, what happens when some of the NMS become funds, what happens when some of the NMS become net contributors?net contributors?

Eco crises – European integration as part of Eco crises – European integration as part of the problem or part of the solution?the problem or part of the solution?