Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS)

Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW)

Options for Completing the 3SAQS Pilot Study

University of North Carolina (UNC-IE)ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON)

July 28, 2014

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Pilot Study Tasks and Status

• Task 2013-1 (Project Management)– Ongoing

• Task 2013-2 (Emissions/AQ Support)– Complete

• Task 2013-3 (2011 WRF Modeling)– Modeling complete– Draft MPE report (July 2014)– Final MPE report (August 2014)

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Pilot Study Tasks and Status

• Task 2013-4 (2011 Emission Inventory (EI))– Complete

• Task 2013-5 (Base and Future Year O&G EI)– Phase 1 2011 and 2020 EIs Complete– Phase 2• Adding fracing engine inventory (July 2014)• Update tank emissions in Piceance Basin to account for

liquids (July 2014)• Tribal O&G EI updates in Uinta Basin using EPA MNSR

(August 2014)

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Pilot Study Tasks and Status

• Task 2013-6 (Projection Period Inventories)– 20082020 (July 2014)– 20112020 (August 2014)

• Task 2013-7 (Air Quality Modeling)– CAMx Base08b and MPE report (July 2014)– 2011 Modeling Protocol (July 2014)– CAMx Base20_08a (August 2014)– CAMx Base11a and MPE report (August 2014)– CAMx Base20_11a (September 2014)

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Pilot Study Tasks and Status

• Task 2013-8 (3SDW Development Support)– Beta source apportionment analysis database and web tool

(September 2014)– Final 2008, 2011, 2020_08 and 2020_11 emissions data loaded

into the 3SDW and emissions review tool (September 2014)– 2008 CAMx v5.41 benchmarking package (July 2014)– 2011 CAMx v6.10 benchmarking package (August 2014)– 3SDW 2008 NEPA modeling package (July 2014)– 3SDW 2011 NEPA modeling package (August 2014)– 2008 and 2011 research modeling packages (September 2014)

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Pilot Study Tasks and Status

• Task 2013-8 (3SDW Development Support-con’t)– 3SAQS CAMx_Base08b MPE results in 3SDW (July

2014)– 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW

(August 2014)– 3SAQS CAMx_Base11a MPE results in 3SDW

(September 2014)– 3SAQS CAMx_Base08_20a MPE results in 3SDW

(September 2014)

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Pilot Study Optional Tasks

• Remaining funding to support additional work through the end of 2014

• Requesting No-Cost-Extension for 1 additional quarter to complete the pilot study

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3SAQS 2011 O&G Emissions

• 2011 Oil and Gas Emissions for Three-State Basins have two sources:– State/EPA provided 2011 O&G Emissions• CO APEN; UT Major Source Permit; WY everything; EPA

Tribal Major Source Permit (e.g., Uinta and SUIT)

– Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions grown from 2008 WestJumpAQMS O&G emissions• Perform controls analysis between 2008 and 2011 for

survey-based O&G emissions

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3SAQS Phase I 2020 O&G Projections

• State/EPA-Provided 2011 O&G emissions– Use historical growth in activity by source type– Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity– No controls analysis

• Insufficient information provided in state/EPA-provided O&G data to determine controls

• Survey-based 2011 O&G emissions– Use historical growth in activity by source type– Grow 2011 O&G to 2020 based on changes in activity– Perform controls analysis based on new regulations on-the-

books between 2011 and 2020

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3SAQS Phase II 2020 O&G Projections• Selected following Phase II updates to 2011/2020

oil and gas emissions:– Incorporate EPA Minor Source Permit Data into 2011

and then 2020 O&G emissions– Add fracing engines in 2011 and 2020 O&G emissions

based on literature (CO, UT and NM)• Original surveys (2006) did not include fracing

– Update tank emissions using additional information• For example, Piceance basin

• Still have $15K left in current 3SAQS O&G emissions budget for additional Phase II updates

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Additional Phase II O&G Updates• Intermediate year O&G emissions between 2011

and 2020 ($13.5 K)• Midstream O&G emissions analysis– Memo on difficulty in calculating controls on Midstream

O&G sources ($4K)– Other? ($TBD)

• 2020 Controls analysis on State/EPA-provided O&G emissions ($TBD)– State and EPA emissions experts provide us with specific

controls to apply on the grown 2020 sources that they provided 2011 O&G emissions for

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Additional CAMx Modeling• $30-40k left for additional sensitivity modeling• Ideas– O&G diagnostic modeling

• Ozone source apportionment tagging O&G sub-sectors– Engines, fugitives, tanks, heaters/dehydrators…– Controllable vs. un-controllable sources– Up-stream vs mid-stream– Others?

• DDM modeling to evaluate the sensitivity of regional ozone to changes in different O&G sub-sectors

• Others?

– Brute force anthropogenic NOx or VOC perturbations– Others?