three megatrends shaping the future of international ... aiec 2016...higher education study...
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Three megatrends shaping the future of
international student mobility
Dr. Rahul Choudaha
[email protected] | DrEducationBlog
USA
Wednesday 19 October 2016
AIEC, Melbourne
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International Interdisciplinary
Researcher
Instructor
Consultant
Entrepreneur
Doctorate
(Higher Ed)
US
Bachelor’s
(Engineering)
India
Master’s
(Business)
India
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Megatrend?
a long-term, transformational process with global reach, broad scope, and a dramatic impact (John Naisbitt, 1982)
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Events shaping megatrends
9/112001
• Attractiveness of UK and Australia
Global Financial Recession2007/08
• Attractiveness of the US
?2016
• ?
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3 TrendsStrategic Response
Strategy
2020
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3 Trends Response
Shifting Demand/Supply
of Global HigherEd
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Demand for tertiary education
14
25
67
22
41
74
Lower middle income
countries
Upper middle income
countries
High income countries
Gross Enrollment Ration at Tertiary Level
2006 2014
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics
India
Indonesia
Kenya
Vietnam
Brazil
China
Mexico
Malaysia
Australia
US
UK
Germany
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Concern of meeting enrollment goals
47%
32%
17%
5%
Very concerned
Moderately concerned
Not too concerned
Not concerned at all
Source: The 2014 Inside Higher Ed Survey of College and University Admissions Directors, Inside Higher Ed
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Demand for international education
4.8
12.511.0
3.3 3.64.9
13.6
19.5
14.9
7.7
3.4
7.1
18.7 18.3 18.2
10.0
4.26.4
New Zealand Australia United Kingdom Canada United States OECD total
Share of international students as a percentage of tertiary level enrollment (%)
2000 2007 2014
Source: OECD Education at a Glance
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Demand by level of education
13.1 13.7 14.3
8.13.5 4.9
40.236.9
23.0
14.0
8.812.4
33.5
42.545.4
27.0
34.7
27.4
Australia United Kingdom New Zealand Canada United States OECD total
Share of international students as a percentage of tertiary enrollment, by level (%)
Bachelor’s level Master’s level Doctorate level
Source: OECD Education at a Glance
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The dragon in the room
712,157
116,942
181,872
56,260
407,280
104,763
145,539
49,000
123,076
68,129
55,436
54,255
China
South Korea
India
Malaysia
Outbound mobility by country of origin
1999 2006 2013
18%14%6%
Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics
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Economic growth…
Source: Global Economic Outlook 2014–2020, A.T. Kearney
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Population growth…
Source: Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change
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Diversifying with New
Markets
Making strategic choices >>>
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3 Trends Response
Shifting Demand/Supply
of Global HigherEd
Diversifying with New Markets
Evolving Segments and
Needs of Students
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Complexity of decision-making processes
Adapted from: Cubillo, et al. (2006)
Personal Reasons
Country Image
City Effect
Purchase
Intentions
Institution Image
Program Evaluation
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“Not All International Students Are The Same:
Understanding Needs, Mapping Behavior”
Source: Choudaha, R., Orosz, K. & Chang, L. (2012). Not All International Students are the Same. World Education Services.
Academic Preparedness
Fin
an
cia
l R
eso
urc
es
Low
Hig
h
Low High
STRIVERS
Advancement
HIGHFLIERS
Prestige
EXPLORERS
Experience
STRUGGLERS
Immigration
‘Global’ – not
interested in
Transnational
Education
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‘Glocal’ students
One out of five students studying wholly overseas
for a UK degree through a distance learning
program (HESA, UK)
70% of international students in Japan are from
China, Korea and Vietnam
More Malaysian students in branch campuses of UK
universities (45,000) than those going to the UK
(15,000)
21% of all foreign students in OECD countries came
from countries that share land or maritime borders
11,825 Indian students pursued MBBS from China in
2012-2014 and appeared in test to practice in India
‘Glocals’ are expanding segment of students seeking international education experience/credential while staying in the country or region
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Diverse students-global vs. glocal
Source: Choudaha, R. Know your international student-global or glocal? University World News.
Academic Preparedness
Fin
an
cia
l R
eso
urc
es
Low
Hig
h
Low High
STRIVERS
Advancement
HIGHFLIERS
Prestige
EXPLORERS
Experience
STRUGGLERS
Immigration
‘Glocal’-
interested in
Transnational
Education
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Engaging with New
Students
Knowing the customer (student) >>>
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3 Trends Response
Shifting Demand/Supply
of Global HigherEd
Diversifying with New Markets
Evolving Segments and
Needs of Students
Engaging with New Students
Maturing Technology and
Educational Delivery
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Transnational Education (TNE)
TNE is broadly defined as: “all types of higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance education) in which the learners are located in a country different from the one where the awarding institution is based.”
Source: UNESCO/Council of Europe (2001)
Code of Good Practice in the
Provision of Transnational Education
Resources
Control
Complexity
Type of TNE
Validation
Franchise
Twinning program
Fly-out model
Dual degree program
Joint degree program
International branch campus
Low
High
MOOCs?
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Issues of Recognition and Quality Assurance
“…in many countries [quality assurance and recognition of qualifications] were still not geared to addressing the challenges of cross-border provision”
Source: Vincent-Lancrin, S., D. Fisher and S. Pfotenhauer (2015), Ensuring Quality in Cross-Border Higher Education:
Implementing the UNESCO/OECD Guidelines, OECD Publishing, Paris.
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Incheon Global Campus, South Korea
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The Transformation
“It forecasts a future where education will be unbundled and degrees will be
disaggregated ‘into smaller credential units…with the possibility that the credentialing
entity may be different from the institution that offers the course".
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Emergence of new alternative providers
“A recent and growing sector of higher education composed of companies or
organizations that offer higher education experiences operating apart from traditional
colleges and universities” (CHEA)
“If you apply and are accepted into the on-campus or online program that is associated
with your MicroMasters program, the MicroMasters credential will count toward the
degree.”
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Experimenting with
New Models
Defining your value proposition >>>
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3 TrendsStrategic Response
Shifting Demand/Supply
of Global HigherEd
Diversifying with New Markets
Evolving Segments and
Needs of Students
Engaging with New Students
Maturing Technology and
Educational Delivery
Experimenting with New Models
Strategy
2020