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Copyright DrEducation, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Three megatrends shaping the future of international student mobility Dr. Rahul Choudaha [email protected] | DrEducationBlog USA Wednesday 19 October 2016 AIEC, Melbourne

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Page 1: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

Copyright DrEducation, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Three megatrends shaping the future of

international student mobility

Dr. Rahul Choudaha

[email protected] | DrEducationBlog

USA

Wednesday 19 October 2016

AIEC, Melbourne

Page 2: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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International Interdisciplinary

Researcher

Instructor

Consultant

Entrepreneur

Doctorate

(Higher Ed)

US

Bachelor’s

(Engineering)

India

Master’s

(Business)

India

Page 3: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Megatrend?

a long-term, transformational process with global reach, broad scope, and a dramatic impact (John Naisbitt, 1982)

Page 4: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Events shaping megatrends

9/112001

• Attractiveness of UK and Australia

Global Financial Recession2007/08

• Attractiveness of the US

?2016

• ?

Page 5: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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3 TrendsStrategic Response

Strategy

2020

Page 6: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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3 Trends Response

Shifting Demand/Supply

of Global HigherEd

Page 7: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Demand for tertiary education

14

25

67

22

41

74

Lower middle income

countries

Upper middle income

countries

High income countries

Gross Enrollment Ration at Tertiary Level

2006 2014

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics

India

Indonesia

Kenya

Vietnam

Brazil

China

Mexico

Malaysia

Australia

US

UK

Germany

Page 8: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Concern of meeting enrollment goals

47%

32%

17%

5%

Very concerned

Moderately concerned

Not too concerned

Not concerned at all

Source: The 2014 Inside Higher Ed Survey of College and University Admissions Directors, Inside Higher Ed

Page 9: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Demand for international education

4.8

12.511.0

3.3 3.64.9

13.6

19.5

14.9

7.7

3.4

7.1

18.7 18.3 18.2

10.0

4.26.4

New Zealand Australia United Kingdom Canada United States OECD total

Share of international students as a percentage of tertiary level enrollment (%)

2000 2007 2014

Source: OECD Education at a Glance

Page 10: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Demand by level of education

13.1 13.7 14.3

8.13.5 4.9

40.236.9

23.0

14.0

8.812.4

33.5

42.545.4

27.0

34.7

27.4

Australia United Kingdom New Zealand Canada United States OECD total

Share of international students as a percentage of tertiary enrollment, by level (%)

Bachelor’s level Master’s level Doctorate level

Source: OECD Education at a Glance

Page 11: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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The dragon in the room

712,157

116,942

181,872

56,260

407,280

104,763

145,539

49,000

123,076

68,129

55,436

54,255

China

South Korea

India

Malaysia

Outbound mobility by country of origin

1999 2006 2013

18%14%6%

Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics

Page 12: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Economic growth…

Source: Global Economic Outlook 2014–2020, A.T. Kearney

Page 13: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Population growth…

Source: Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change

Page 14: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Diversifying with New

Markets

Making strategic choices >>>

Page 15: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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3 Trends Response

Shifting Demand/Supply

of Global HigherEd

Diversifying with New Markets

Evolving Segments and

Needs of Students

Page 16: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Complexity of decision-making processes

Adapted from: Cubillo, et al. (2006)

Personal Reasons

Country Image

City Effect

Purchase

Intentions

Institution Image

Program Evaluation

Page 17: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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“Not All International Students Are The Same:

Understanding Needs, Mapping Behavior”

Source: Choudaha, R., Orosz, K. & Chang, L. (2012). Not All International Students are the Same. World Education Services.

Academic Preparedness

Fin

an

cia

l R

eso

urc

es

Low

Hig

h

Low High

STRIVERS

Advancement

HIGHFLIERS

Prestige

EXPLORERS

Experience

STRUGGLERS

Immigration

‘Global’ – not

interested in

Transnational

Education

Page 18: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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‘Glocal’ students

One out of five students studying wholly overseas

for a UK degree through a distance learning

program (HESA, UK)

70% of international students in Japan are from

China, Korea and Vietnam

More Malaysian students in branch campuses of UK

universities (45,000) than those going to the UK

(15,000)

21% of all foreign students in OECD countries came

from countries that share land or maritime borders

11,825 Indian students pursued MBBS from China in

2012-2014 and appeared in test to practice in India

‘Glocals’ are expanding segment of students seeking international education experience/credential while staying in the country or region

Page 19: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Diverse students-global vs. glocal

Source: Choudaha, R. Know your international student-global or glocal? University World News.

Academic Preparedness

Fin

an

cia

l R

eso

urc

es

Low

Hig

h

Low High

STRIVERS

Advancement

HIGHFLIERS

Prestige

EXPLORERS

Experience

STRUGGLERS

Immigration

‘Glocal’-

interested in

Transnational

Education

Page 20: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Engaging with New

Students

Knowing the customer (student) >>>

Page 21: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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3 Trends Response

Shifting Demand/Supply

of Global HigherEd

Diversifying with New Markets

Evolving Segments and

Needs of Students

Engaging with New Students

Maturing Technology and

Educational Delivery

Page 22: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Transnational Education (TNE)

TNE is broadly defined as: “all types of higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance education) in which the learners are located in a country different from the one where the awarding institution is based.”

Source: UNESCO/Council of Europe (2001)

Code of Good Practice in the

Provision of Transnational Education

Resources

Control

Complexity

Type of TNE

Validation

Franchise

Twinning program

Fly-out model

Dual degree program

Joint degree program

International branch campus

Low

High

MOOCs?

Page 23: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Issues of Recognition and Quality Assurance

“…in many countries [quality assurance and recognition of qualifications] were still not geared to addressing the challenges of cross-border provision”

Source: Vincent-Lancrin, S., D. Fisher and S. Pfotenhauer (2015), Ensuring Quality in Cross-Border Higher Education:

Implementing the UNESCO/OECD Guidelines, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Page 24: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Incheon Global Campus, South Korea

Page 25: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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The Transformation

“It forecasts a future where education will be unbundled and degrees will be

disaggregated ‘into smaller credential units…with the possibility that the credentialing

entity may be different from the institution that offers the course".

Page 26: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Emergence of new alternative providers

“A recent and growing sector of higher education composed of companies or

organizations that offer higher education experiences operating apart from traditional

colleges and universities” (CHEA)

“If you apply and are accepted into the on-campus or online program that is associated

with your MicroMasters program, the MicroMasters credential will count toward the

degree.”

Page 27: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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Experimenting with

New Models

Defining your value proposition >>>

Page 28: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

Copyright DrEducation, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

3 TrendsStrategic Response

Shifting Demand/Supply

of Global HigherEd

Diversifying with New Markets

Evolving Segments and

Needs of Students

Engaging with New Students

Maturing Technology and

Educational Delivery

Experimenting with New Models

Strategy

2020

Page 29: Three megatrends shaping the future of international ... AIEC 2016...higher education study programs, or sets of courses of study, or educational services (including those of distance

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[email protected]

@DrEducationBlog