Threat Assessment

How do we manage risk?

Christopher Young

World Heritage Committee Concerns

Two Committee processes dealing with risk assessment and threats, at least in part:

• Reactive Monitoring leading, possibly, to In Danger Listing

• Periodic Reporting

Committee has also asked specifically for high awareness of risk preparedness and impacts of climate change

Reactive Monitoring

169. Reactive Monitoring is the reporting by the Secretariat, other sectors of UNESCO and the Advisory Bodies to the Committee on the state of conservation of specific World Heritage properties that are under threat. To this end, the States Parties shall submit by 1 February to the Committee through the Secretariat, specific reports and impact studies each time exceptional circumstances occur or work is undertaken which may have an effect on the state of conservation of the property. Reactive Monitoring is also foreseen in reference to properties inscribed, or to be inscribed, on the List of World Heritage in Danger as set out in paragraphs 177- 191.Reactive Monitoring is foreseen in the procedures for the eventual deletion of properties from the World Heritage List as set out in paragraphs 192-198.

Criteria for In Danger Listing

179. In the case of cultural properties:a) ASCERTAINED DANGER - The property is faced withspecific and proven imminent danger, such as:i) serious deterioration of materials;ii) serious deterioration of structure and/orornamental features;iii) serious deterioration of architectural or townplanningcoherence;iv) serious deterioration of urban or rural space,or the natural environment;v) significant loss of historical authenticity;vi) important loss of cultural significance.

b) POTENTIAL DANGER - The property is faced withthreats which could have deleterious effects on itsinherent characteristics. Such threats are, for example:i) modification of juridical status of the propertydiminishing the degree of its protection;ii) lack of conservation policy;iii) threatening effects of regional planningprojects;iv) threatening effects of town planning;v) outbreak or threat of armed conflict;vi) gradual changes due to geological, climatic orother environmental factors.

180. In the case of natural properties:a) ASCERTAINED DANGER - The property is faced with specific and

proven imminent danger, such as:i) A serious decline in the population of the endangered species or the

other species of outstanding universal value for which the property was legally established to protect, either by natural factors such as disease or by man-made factors such as poaching.

ii) Severe deterioration of the natural beauty or scientific value of the property, as by human settlement, construction of reservoirs which flood important parts of the property, industrial and agricultural development including use of pesticides and fertilizers, major public works, mining, pollution, logging, firewood collection, etc.

iii) Human encroachment on boundaries or in upstream areas which threaten the integrity of the property.

b) POTENTIAL DANGER - The property is faced with major threats which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics. Such threats are, for example:

i) a modification of the legal protective status of the area;ii) planned resettlement or development projects within the

property or so situated that the impacts threaten the property;

iii) outbreak or threat of armed conflict;iv) the management plan or management system is lacking

or inadequate, or not fully implemented.

State Party responsibilities4 Each State Party to this Convention recognizes that the duty of

ensuring the identification, protection, conservation, presentation and transmission to future generations of the cultural and natural heritage referred to in Articles 1 and 2 and situated on its territory, belongs primarily to that State. It will do all it can to this end, to the utmost of its own resources and, where appropriate, with any international assistance and co-operation, in particular, financial, artistic, scientific and technical, which it may be able to obtain.

5 Each State Party to this Convention shall endeavor, in so far as possible, and as appropriate for each country:

(c) to develop scientific and technical studies and research and to work out such operating methods as will make the State capable of counteracting the dangers that threaten its cultural or natural heritage;

Sources of help

• ICOMOS/ICCROM/UNESCO manual (1998)• International Committee of Blue Shield (set up

by ICA, ICOM, ICOMOS, IFLA)• National Committees of Blue Shield:

Norway: contact Axel Myklebyhttp://www.blueshield.no

Blue Shield set up to support on 1954 Hague Convention but also can advise on natural disaster

Some Threats

• Earthquake• Flood• Decay and Collapse• Security• War and Conflict• Poaching• Erosion• Invasive Species• Epidemic animal disease

• Volcano• Landslip• Fire• Theft and Looting• Terrorism• Deliberate destruction• Illegal Logging• Desertification• Tourism pressures

• Plan and prepare in advance• Assess threat levels for:

• Impact on values• Likelihood of happening

• Try to identify basic causes of threats and tackle those if possible

• Protection of heritage should be integrated with general risk management

• Risk management and climate change must be covered in Management Plans

• Ensure that heritage is properly documented as basis for recovery

• Take preventive measures cf Roskilde

• Preventive measures should be proportionate to threat

Ajanta

Predicted effects of climate change

• Change in precipitation patterns• Increase in frequency of warm episodes of El

Nino-Southern Oscillation• Change of frequency, intensity and seasonality

of extreme weather events (eg droughts, fires, heavy rain/snow, floods, storms)

• Rise in sea level• Increase of CO2 levels in atmosphere and

dissolved in sea(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001)

Predicted effects

• Increase by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C by 2100 in global mean temperatures

• Intensification of hydrological cycle, with increased intensity of rainfall events but also more frequent droughts in arid/ semi-arid areas

• Increase of global sea level of 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100

• Increased frequency of storm surges locally(European Environment Agency 2004)

Effects on cultural heritage – changing weather patterns

• Desertification

• Changing rainfall patterns impacting on earthen architecture

• Changes in soil moisture levels damaging buried archaeology

• Movement of species and pests

• Changing vegetation in planned landscapes

Effects on cultural heritage – severe weather events

• Storm damage by wind to buildings and landscapes

• Floods eg New Orleans, Dresden, Prague

• erosion

Effects on cultural heritage – sea level rise

• 15 out of 19 World Cities are by the coast

• Erosion and loss of land to sea

• In UK now policy for much of coast line is managed retreat

• Increased risk of flooding in combination with severe weather events, tidal surges etc, as happened in 1953

London 1

• London has 4 World Heritage Sites, all on banks of Thames

• All vulnerable to floods from high tide/ storm surges in North Sea

London 2

• Thames Barrier built in response to 1953 disaster

• Originally expected to be used 2/3 times each year

• Now being used 6/7 times per year

• By 2080’s, sea levels in Thames estuary 0.26 to 0.86m higher on average than 1961 - 1990

Reduced Summer Rainfall

East of EnglandNW England

Analysing the Combined Evidence

Analysing the Combined Evidence

Sea Levels Rise/Storm Surge

East of EnglandNW England

Climate change indirect impacts on cultural heritage

• Societies also vulnerable to changes

• If climate change destroys particular combination of weather, land etc, basis of social system can go, particularly if already vulnerable for other reasons

Wider Implications of climate change

• Disasters related to climate change likely to occur more often

• Likely to occur as much in developed world as less developed

• Need also to consider long term changes leading to fundamental changes in landscape as well as immediate disaster

Remember the unexpected