thorium and environmentally compatible energy strategy
TRANSCRIPT
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Thorium and Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategy
Ryoichi KomiyamaThe University of Tokyo
International Thorium Seminar,The University of Tokyo, April 9, 2014
Outline
� Energy Situation in Japan and the World
� Significance of Thorium in Energy Market
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Energy Policy Challenges after the Fukushima in Japan� NuclearDecommission of Fukushima, Radiation-tainted water problem, Difficulty in restarting,
Public acceptance, Waste management, Effective nuclear regulation , Act on Compensation for Nuclear Damages, Development of human resources in nuclear technology� Fossil fuelsLNG import increase, LNG price rising, Asian premium, Trade imbalance� Energy GeopoliticsMiddle-East uncertainty, Northeast Asian tension in political issue, Competition over
resource equity, Sea-lane security such as in Malacca and Hormuz Strait� RenewablesFeed-in-tariff (FIT) sustainability, Grid connection, Control of surplus power from
intermittent sources� Climate ChangeNuclear suspension and CO2 surging, Post-Kyoto dropout � Electricity marketRising retail electricity price, Power sector reform 3
Nuclear Power Plants in Japan after the Fukushima
【Permanent Shutdown】Tokai:The Japan Atomic Power Company (1998)Hamaoka No1,No2:Chubu Electric Power Company (2009)Fukushima Daiichi No1,No2,No3,No4,No5,No6:Tokyo electric power company (2011-2013) 4
(Source) FEPC(Federation of Electric Power Companies Japan), IEEJ
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Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Tokyo Electric Power Company
Shika, Hokuriku Electric Power Company
Tsuruga, The Japan Atomic Power Company
Mihama, Kansai Electric Power Company
Ohi, Kansai Electric Power Company
Kaminoseki, Chugoku Electric Power Company
Genkai, Kyushu Electric Power CompanySendai, Kyushu Electric Power Company
Output
100MW and more1000MW and less500MW and lessPlanning
Under construction
In operation
68.15562Total
16.5529Planning
2.7563Under construction
48.84750In operation
Total output (GW)Units
68.15562Total
16.5529Planning
2.7563Under construction
48.84750In operation
Total output (GW)Units
11 22
11 22 33
33 44 55
22 33 4411
66 77 8855
3311 22
11 22
11 22
22 33 4411 55 66 77
2211
22 33 4411
3311
22
22 33 4411
Takamaha, Kansai Electric Power Company33 4411 22
Shimane, Chugoku Electric Power Company11 22 33
2211
11 22 33 44
66
33
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Higashidori, Tohoku Electric Power Company
Higashidori, Tokyo Electric Power Company
Tomari, Hokkaido Electric Power Company Ohma, Japan Power Development Company
Onagawa, Tohoku Electric Power Company
Namie-Odaka, Tohoku Electric Power Company
Fukushima Daiichi, Tokyo Electric Power Company
Tokai Daini, The Japan Atomic Power Company
Ikata, Shikoku Electric Power Company
4321
Attack of Tsunami
(As of April 2013)
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Solar
Wind
Thermal
Nuclear
Geothermal
Hydro
% of Thermal
(TWh) or (%)94.4%
Thermal
Nuclear
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OtherRenewablesHydro
Petroleum
LNG
Coal
Nuclear
TWh
26% 29% 29% 11%
1.7%
25% 25% 25%
25% 28%
28% 29% 29% 40%
43%
12% 7% 8% 14% 18%
7.8% 8.3% 8.5%
9.0% 8.4%
1.0% 1.1%
1.1% 1.4% 1.6%
Dependence on thermal plant65% 61% 62% 79% 88%
Japan’s Power Generation Mix after the Fukushima: Increasing Dependence on Fossil fuel
Monthly Power Generation Mix
5(Source) Ministry of Energy, Trade and Industry
(METI): Monthly Power Generation Statistics
Fukushima
Power Generation Mix
(Source) FEPC (The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan ) statistics
� Since the utilization of nuclear power generation significantly declined after the earthquake due to the accident and the political reason, the fraction of fossil fuel over total power generation reached at the highest level in the last three decades (94.4% in Jan.,2014).� Nuclear is mainly replaced by LNG and petroleum, expensive fossil fuel.
Fukushima100GWhDependence on Thermal power
(Source) MOF (Ministry of Finance Japan): Monthly Trade Report
Surging Fuel-Import Cost in Japan after the FukushimaNuclear suspension after Fukushima causes soaring fuel-import cost
Fuel import cost in Japan2009: 14 trillion yen2010: 17 trillion yen 2011: 22 trillion yen ( +5 trillion yen from 2010)2012: 24 trillion yen ( +7 trillion yen from 2010)2013: 27 trillion yen (+10 trillion yen from 2010)
Fuel Import Cost in Japan before and after the Fukushima
*1 $≒ 100yen
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(billion Yen, Nominal)
LNG (Liquified Natural Gas)
Coal
Oil
Fukushima
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(Source) TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Company)
Soaring Electricity Bill in Japan After the Fukushima
Monthly Household Electricity Bill in Tokyo*1 $≒ 100yen
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fukushima
FIT surcharge
Japanese Yen (Nominal)
� For Industry• If electricity rates increase by 15% due to continuous shutdown of nuclear, the income
(operating income margin) of the steel industry will decrease by 0.4%. Cement and general machinery industries will also suffer from 0.2% reduction of operating income margin.
• Higher electricity rates would deteriorate the Japanese industries’ competitiveness.� For Household (Electricity bill)
If electricity rates for households increase by 10%, the annual additional payment per household will be about 8000 yen.
� Continuous nuclear suspension will decrease GDP by 0.5% (30 US$ billion) and cause Loss of 50,000 job opportunity
Impact of Increasing Electricity Cost on Industry and Household (Source: IEEJ, Apr, 2012)
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0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.6
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Jan. 2009 = 1.0)
(Source) Estimated from “METI: Monthly Electricity Report”
Nuclear Suspension Increases CO2 in Power Sector After the FukushimaAfter Fukushima, CO2 emissions in power sector rapidly increase, despite of national concerted effort for electricity saving
Fukushima
CO2 emissions
Power generation (kWh)
FY1990 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012Electricity demand(TWh) 659 889 859 906 860 852CO2 emissions from electricity(Mt-CO2) 275 395 353 374 439 486CO2 intensity (kg-CO2/kWh) 0.417 0.444 0.412 0.413 0.510 0.571
After Fukushima
(Source) FEPC(Federation of Electric Power Companies Japan)
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Risks in Global Energy Market� Growing energy demand & imports in emerging countries � Competition of access to energy resources� Impact of unconventional fuel (shale gas, tight oil) on
global power balance (USA, Middle East, Russia)� Increasing geopolitical risks (nuclear issues in Iran, political
instability in Middle East, …)� Energy supply constraints• Investment risks in resource exploration and development• Instability of energy transportation and sea lane security• Market liberalization and environmental constraints
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1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2035 2050
MtoeMtoeMtoeMtoe
30%34%47%70%
30%53%
66% 70%
China
India
Other non-OECD
Other Asia
USA
Japan
Other OECD
non-OECDnon-OECDnon-OECDnon-OECD
OECDOECDOECDOECD
Primary Energy Demand (World)
Difference(2010 - 2050)
54508077
575
OECD non-
OECD
Asia
� Energy demand is expected to grow in emerging countries, particularly in developing Asian region including China and India. � Growing demand will rise concern on energy supply, environmental pollution
related to energy use not only for the country but also for international market.
(Source) IEEJ, Asia/World energy outlook 2013, 2013 10
World Oil Supply by Type
((((Source))))IEA, WEO2012, OECD, Paris
� Crude oil production from existing oil fields will decline by two-thirds by 2035 from the current level.� World oil production will shift to smaller fields and deep-water developments,
where the exploration and development cost is more expensive than conventional fields
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Crude Oil Price
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� Crude oil price is one of most influential factors in energy market. � International crude oil price has largely fluctuated so far and recently shown steep rise,
backed by the concern for energy supply constraint and geopolitical risk in Middle East and North Africa.� Large variation of energy price hinders smooth investment for energy resource
development and related infrastructure.
0
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013
$/bbl 1973
1st Oil crisis
19792nd Oil crisis
1990Gulf war
1986Oil price collapse
2003Iraq war
1997Asian currency crisis
2008US financial crunch
Escalating demand in emerging countries,
Growing geopolitical risks
Crude Oil Import CIF Price in Japan
Real price
Nominal price
(Source) MOF: Monthly Trade Report
Global CO2 Emissions (by Reduction Measure)� Renewable energy, fuel switching (from coal and oil to natural gas), nuclear, energy saving and
CCS could potentially play a crucial role to massively mitigate world carbon dioxide emissions.� In order to halve global CO2 emissions from present levels, various measures will be
indispensable.⇒⇒⇒⇒ There is no single panacea (solution) for climate change issues, and thorium is considered to be one of important future technologies for addressing it
(Source) IEEJ, Asia/World energy outlook 2013, 2013 13
(Source) JAIF (Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, Inc.), World Nuclear Power Plants, 2013
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Asia and the World� In the world, 30 countries possess 429 commercial nuclear power reactors with a total
installed capacity of 388 GW, and 76 additional nuclear power reactors (78 GW) are under construction, equivalent to 20% of present capacity, while 97 units are firmly planned equal to one-third of present capacity.� In Asia 49 nuclear power plants with a capacity of 53 GW are under construction in Asia,
suggesting world NPP construction concentrated on Asian regions.� NPP capacity in Asia under both construction and planning is 103 GW. NPPs 103 GW is
equal to 93 million tons of LNG.*Assumed operating ratio of NPP: 80%, Assumed conv. Eff. of LNGCC: 55%**LNG import (2013): Japan 87 mil. ton, Korea 37 mil. Ton, Asia 167 mil. ton
Output Units Output Units Output Units Output UnitsJapan 46 50 4 4 12 9 63 63South Korea 21 23 5 4 7 5 33 32China 13 15 35 32 26 23 73 70Chinese Taipei 5 6 3 2 0 0 8 8
India 5 20 5 7 5 4 15 31
Asia Total 89 114 53 49 51 41 193 204
USA 107 104 1 1 11 9 118 114France 66 58 2 1 0 0 68 59
Russia 25 29 10 11 18 17 54 57
World Total 388 429 78 76 111 97 577 602
In Operation Under Const. Planned TotalOutput [GW]
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Nuclear Energy Outlook in East Asia� Even after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, considerable growth of nuclear energy utilization in the
part of Asian countries is projected in the long-term perspective� The nuclear expansion in Asia is mainly expected in China and Korea. Both countries adopt policies
progressively promoting nuclear power. � China is expected to show the largest growth in nuclear power capacity, adding 114 GW of capacity
by 2035, and Korea is projected to add 21 GW of new capacity by 2035.� In China, the 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development describes targets for the future development of nuclear. The number
of nuclear power plants will increase from current 15 to 25 by 2015. � The government plans to install nuclear capacity to 58 GW by 2020, while 32 new reactors are under construction and 23
reactors are under firmly planning.
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1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
China Korea Japan
GW
(Source) IEEJ/APERC, APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 5th Edition, 2013 15
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h/y
ear
FBRLWR-PLLWRSolarWindHydroMunicipal WasteSTIGBiomassBIG/GTIGCCMethanolH2-firedGas-firedOil-firedCoal-fired
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ear
FBRLWR-PLLWRSolarWindHydroMunicipal WasteSTIGBiomassBIG/GTIGCCMethanolH2-firedGas-firedOil-firedCoal-fired
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FBRLWR-PLLWRSolarWindHydroMunicipal WasteSTIGBiomassBIG/GTIGCCMethanolH2-firedGas-firedOil-firedCoal-fired
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Power Generation Mix to 2100 (World and Asia)Reference Case: Nuclear will increase in the latter half of the century, reflecting on the depletion of conventional fossil resources.CO2 Regulation Case: Nuclear will expand due to its economic competitiveness under global CO2 constraints. Biomass and Coal (Coal-IGCC with CCS) become also attractive. Due to the uranium resource depletion constraining LWR usage, nuclear expansion is driven by FBR with nuclear fuel cycle in the latter half of this century.
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160000
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2010
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TW
h/y
ear
FBRLWR-PLLWRSolarWindHydroMunicipal WasteSTIGBiomassBIG/GTIGCCMethanolH2-firedGas-firedOil-firedCoal-fired
Coal Fired
Reference(Asia) CO2 Regulation(Asia)
Reference(World) CO2 Regulation(World)
Coal Fired
LWR
LWR
LWR
FBR
LWR
FBRLWR-PL
IGCC
IGCC
BIG/GT
LWR-PL
(Source) S.Sharma, R.Komiyama, Y.Fujii, Journal of Env. Sci. & Eng., A1, pp.1215-1232 (2013)
In the last half of the century, uranium resource constraint might potentially pose a challenge for sustainable use of nuclear energy.
Spot Uranium (U3O8) PriceSince 2004, uranium price has considerably increased reflecting on tight uranium supply, decreasing secondary supplies (inventories, weapon), massive procurement of uranium concentrate by China, global intensive quest for uranium equity, speculative fund channeled into spot market.
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
(US
$/lb
U3O
8)
(Year)
Chernobyl (April 1986)
136 $/lb U308(June 2007)
63.5 $/lb U308(March 2011)
((((Source)))) International Monetary Fund, Uranium price 17
Uranium Identified Resources 2001-2011� Uranium identified resources show a growing trend. However, production cost of
uranium have increased and the economically affordable resource (< 40$/kgU) exhibits a decreasing tendency.
� On a resource basis, total identified uranium resources are currently abundant enough to provide a uranium supply more than 100 years based on current uranium production (total uranium production in 2010: 54.7 (1000 tU)).
� Challenge for uranium production countries like Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Niger, Namibia and Uzbekistan is to implement an sufficient financial investment for ensuring stable uranium production
010002000300040005000600070008000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20011
1000
tU
Year
<USD 260/kgU<USD 130/kgU<USD 80/kgU<USD 40/kgU
(Source) OECD/NEA ”Uranium 2011: Resources, Productions and Demand” 2011 etc. 18
World Uranium Production and Enrichment by Company
Global Enrichment CapacitiesGrobal Uranium Production
⇒Securing nuclear fuel supply is important agenda. One of important measures to strengthen nuclear fuel supply is developing alternative source like thorium
� World uranium production and enrichment are in oligopoly; a small number of companies or countries dominate the market. � Particularly in enrichment service, only four large suppliers (Rosatom, Urenco,
USEC, Eurodif) hold more than 90% of the market.
((((Source)))) WNA(World Nuclear Association), Uranium Enrichment, WNA website
KazAtomProm15%
Areva15%
Cameco15%
ARMZ13%
Rio Tinto9%
BHP Billiton6%
Paladin5%
Naovi4%
Others18%
WorldWorldWorldWorld
58,400 tU58,400 tU58,400 tU58,400 tU
(Source) WNA(World Nuclear Association), World Uranium Mining Production, WNA website
ROSATOM51%
URENCO30%
USEC10%
Areva5%
CNNC3%
JNFL1%
Others0%
WorldWorldWorldWorld
49,000 tSWU49,000 tSWU49,000 tSWU49,000 tSWU
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� Identified thorium resource is estimated to be from 673 mil. ton to 759 mil. ton, which is comparable to total identified uranium resources (reasonably assured and inferred resource), 533 mil. tU (OECD/NEA(2011)).
� Thorium resources are widely spread in the world; the situation is totally different from crude oil which resource is heavily concentrated on Middle eastern countries.
� Among thorium-rich countries, USA, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Russia and Kazakhstan are major countries which are endowed with large oil and natural gas reserves, while India faces domestic rapidly-increasing energy demand.
Thorium Resource in the World
(Source) OECD/NEA ”Uranium2011:Resources, Productions and Demand” 2011
Turkey12% Norway
4%
Greenland1% Finland
1%Russia (Eu. part)1%Sweden
1%Other Europe
0%Brazil18%
USA6%
Venezuela4%Canada
2%Other America0%
Egypt5%
South Africa2%
Other Africa2%
CIS(Kazakhstan, Russia(Asian part)
etc)20%
India11%
China1%
Other Asia1%
Australia7%
Global Thorium Resource Endowment by Country
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Power Generation Cost of Thorium� A thorium reactor, AHWR, in a once-through fuel cycle is potentially economically
competitive with conventional nuclear reactors, depending on the cost of natural uranium.� If the cost of natural uranium significantly increases, thorium fuel cycle technology is
estimated to be cost-competitive against conventional once-through fuel cycle technology
(Source) IAEA, Role of Thorium to Supplement Fuel Cycles of Future Nuclear Energy Systems, No. NF-T-2.4, 2012*mill=0.001$
AHWR: advanced heavy water reactor with plutonium, U233, thorium fuel (Once-through)
Levelized unit energy cost (LUEC) of Nuclear depending on Uranium Cost
Reactors using reprocessed fuel (LWR1, LWR2, HWR1, HWR2, FR and FRTh)
FRTh: fast reactor with plutonium, depleted uranium fuel, and thorium in blankets
HWR2: heavy water reactor with plutonium, Th, 233U fuelHWR1: heavy water reactor with plutonium thorium fuel
LWR0: light water reactor with UOX Th fuel
LWR1: light water reactor with plutonium Th fuel
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Conclusion: Significance of Thorium Technology Development
� Thorium technology development has a significance in following contexts: • Alleviating the resource constraint of fossil fuel and uranium• Potentially preventing energy price escalation
(theory on backstop technology)• Realizing sustainable energy development• Encouraging the advancement of new industry• No single panacea (solution) for energy security and climate change, and
technological portfolio is important⇒⇒⇒⇒ Thorium is one of various important technological options in global energy
market
� Continuous elaborate effort for R&D and public acceptance is indispensable for the actual future deployment of thorium technology in energy market
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Thanks for your kind attention.
Ryoichi Komiyama, Ph.D.Associate Professor
Resilience Engineering Research Center,Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management
The University of Tokyo
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